GoldFinger1969

We have lots of useless posts ("Hi, I found this coin in my washing machine, can you tell me if it's worth $10,000 ?" ) but we also have some pretty smart guys here and lots of VERY useful threads. Anybody who obtained SPECIFIC data on their particular coins or coin types would do well to make sure they saved the information on the various threads here. You have stuff here you can't get in other forums, books, periodicals, etc.

I would assume a dealer like Winter who puts his thoughts out in the open in his blog (as opposed to other dealers who can talk their own book or bullbleep) is going to have some quantifiable reference to say something like that. If he normally sees 5-10 coins per month and all of a sudden with no change in pricing he sees 20-25, he knows something is up. At least I would.

Return policy ? I've seen photos of a coin with the lighting angles changed...night and day....from outstanding eye appeal and luster to horrid.

I think it was mentioned here before....but the risk of milk spots or other blemishes turning your PF70 or even PF69 into something worth 75% less overnight is also a BIG risk if you can't afford it.

Bama should have probably beat Michigan. They were probably the 2nd best team overall.

Might re-post this in one of the Hoard Threads, but given the prominence of the MCMVII HR I thought it could go here. Doug Winter posted back in early-2021 about a stealth hoard of MCMVII HR's that had depressed prices. I reached out to him for more details but never heard back. Anyway, from his blog at the time: "...In 2019, an average quality PCGS MS63 1907 Wire Edge High Relief $20 typically sold for around $20,000. In late 2019/early 2020 a substantial hoard of High Reliefs in MS63 through MS65 came onto the market and prices dropped to $14,000-15,000 by the middle of 2020. Prices rose slightly towards the end of the year but these are likely to remain flat in 2021." I'll scout recent pricing the last 2-3 years to see if they have bounced back as I think they have. If anybody has heard about this "MCMVII HR Hoard" -- and where it might come from (probably domestic) -- chime in.

$2,280 overnight, up another $40.

It's affordable...the coin looks nice....it's 1 ounce of silver....makes a nice present.

I don't know how PCGS computes FMV for coins, but if it some algorithim based on previous prices, then thir FMV would be too HIGH if the price is in a long-term downtrend as the 1995-W ASE was for a decade or so.

I think you answered your own question. Quite frankly, if I was an ASE collector or if I just wanted a 1995-W as a conversation piece, I would almost certainly go for a 68 or 69. ESPECIALLY when you consider the risk of milk spots or something developing down the line. One thing to have a $2,500 coin get cut in half price-wise....but to spend $12,000 and have it go down by 75-80% would be too much unless I had just won PowerBall.

A few weeks or months ago one got NO BIDs asking I think $13,000 or so on GC or HA. So figure total cost of about $15K was too steep. For a total cost of about $12,000 (give or take 10%), you can get the 70DCAM. 69-69's will run you $2K-$3K all-in.

One of the MCMVII UHR's is graded PF58.

Bobby, are you considering a purchase of some grade of 1995-W ASE ?

It was also a bubble. Most of the sales took place at about $30,000 or so, which even that was still bubble-like. And we are talking very few sales even at $30K. Once the supply hit (see my post above), the price really took a tumble. Folks who thought maybe only a few dozen or even a few hundred coins would get the top grade and DCAM add-on suddenly recognized that (especially when you add in NGC) you could be talking THOUSANDS. They'd still sell at a premium because of all the set registry collector demand....but not at multiple 5-figure pricing.

The RATE of increase percentage-wise has clearly slowed. The PCGS PF70DCAM population was 8 in 2013........23 in 2014.......381 in 2018....and 424 in 2021. When that ASE sold for $86,000 in 2013...lots of coins came out of the woodwork !

Mike was looking at a certified coin, right ? The only dispute was whether or not the lighting was making it look much nicer ?

What's their return policy ?

Would you agree that the "market grading" slide for the most part has NOT been a change within MS or AU of 2-4 grade increments....but the JUMP from the AU to the MS bucket ? It's not the downgrade of 1 or even 2 increments that is leading to this polarized debate...it's the entire issue of MS vs. AU and the definition or tolerance for the slightest wear/friction/rub on the highest points of the coin. Nobody is getting animated about a coin being EF-40 or EF-45...it's the downgrade from MS to AU by CACG that is causing the friction (no pun intended ).

Well, this is something where the professional organizations should get off their butts and create something to give buyers confidence that someone is legit. I guess if there is a very easy/liberal return policy that isn't bad but a seal of approval from an overseer would eliminate unhappy purchases. Word spreads, especially in on the Internet, Social Media, forum message boards, etc. If a dealer didn't have the necessary certification it would speak volumes. Kind of surprised there isn't. I see it in other fields -- I have money management certifications (CFA, CFP) for instance -- jewelers have their Gemological stuff, etc.

Isn't there some numismatic "Better Business Bureau" seal of Good Housekeeping or something.....PNG or ANA or something....that tells people the person abides by a code of ethics ? I mean...doctoring coins and NOT saying they are....if I tried that with investing/money management, I'd lose my certifications and probably be fined/prosecuted.

So this is one of those "Coin Doctors" that Laura S. was always complaining about, I take it ?

Some of these guys may really love coins and the artistry associated with them....for others, it may have simply been a job to get a paycheck. Also, political appointees.

Mike, you have to shorten your OP subject titles....or I'm gonna wait for the movie version to hit !!

No, except maybe that 2019-S Reverse Proof. Not sure what has happened to pricing post-Covid for that one but I recall 70 DCAMs were maybe $1,500 or so ? The thing with the 1995-W: lots of people collect the ASE coins. Once you start collecting every year's issue, then you had a built-in excuse to stretch to buy a coin that costs a few thousand dollars in 69 and maybe $10K for those with more $$$ to keep the streak going. It's not like collecting Saints where most coins are under $5,000 and then to get any 1932 or other rare one you are talking 6 or 7-figures for any condition of the coin and that is something that 99% of people simply can't afford to do. That's one reason why there are so many more ASE collectors than other coin collectors and/or gold coin collectors.

It's a condition scarcity thing, right Sandon ? You had the 70DCAM/UCAM sell for $86,000 which was clearly a bubble when there were < 10 coins with that pedigree in 2013. Today, there are over 400 !!! Like you said...we KNEW the supply would increase and the total pop numbers would jump -- just not by how much. Some 68's, 69's, 70's, and 70DCAM's. Read Doug Winter's "What's Hot, What's Not" column for 2023 published a few days/weeks ago. He mentions the scarcity degree for a Libertty Head DE that is not a common but not rare or very scarce. Basic point was that it was 60x scarcer than the Liberty Head DE common but didn't sell obviously for 60x as much. https://raregoldcoins.com/blog/2023/12/29/the-annual-dwn-whats-hot-whats-not-list-2023-edition Also noted that commemoratives are literally the razor's edge: no demand....not much supply...nobody promoting them. Prices down 50% for Lewis & Clark from a decade ago so caveat emptor.