GoldFinger1969

We haven't been serious before. This time the entire world is turning Russia into a pariah state. Only fear of being imprisoned or shot is causing Putin's oligarch friends to not denounce him and call for a reversal of the invasion.

They don't control the quality of the oil. Urals blends are high-sulphur and the market adjusts accordingly: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ Note that Russian oil trades at a $15/bbl. discount.

As with interest rates, when something reverses correlation, it does it bigtime. Right now, rising oil prices signify decent GDP growth hence the rising stock market and rising bond yields. If oil prices get to the level of demand destruction -- about $125/bbl. or more -- you will see the market fall.

Oil is a globally traded commodity. Price is set by WTI (U.S.) and Brent (global). Our prices would NOT be lower and virtually all domestically sourced petroleum is used internally. Some high-quality, low-sulphur "sweet" crude is exported because the premium, net of transport, is high enough to make it economically feasible by replacing it with "sour" high-sulphur crude which is cheaper even after paying transportation. Discounts on crude can range from 10-50% depending on sulphur, sweet or sour, viscosity, etc. Discounts on Western Canadian Sedimentary (WCS, oil sands) has often been $20/bbl. when WTI was $60/bbl. Keystone was supposed to alleviate that problem. Americans pay relatively low oil prices, get low gasoline prices, and have lower energy bills than most developed nations. The amount of oil going out (minimal) vs. the much larger cheaper oil coming in is NOT an even swap or an oil company ploy. We consume about 22 mm/bbl./day of oil. Our production is only about 12 mm/bbl/day. Exporting a few hundred thousand barrels means nothing. Only in natural gas are we a NET exporter.

All commodities are in a 10-year global supercycle right now. Geez, my mother's Chevron (CVX) doubled in 2 years.

And represented a large % of the average annual salary. Today, it would be the equivalent of someone hoarding a $500 or even $1,000 bill. No wonder kids and even adults then collected pennies, nickels, dimes, quarters, or even half or silver dollars. Cost was 1/20th or 1/2,000th that of collecting DEs. Like you have said...it was a rich man (or rich woman's) game.

So you think it could be less ? Figure dealers and serious collectors had the largest inventory.....there had to be a few thousand dealers/Saint or DE collectors by the 1930's for $20 gold pieces. Both could afford them, unlike the masses. Figure they had 10-50 coins each....that's tens of thousands right there. Then go to the public for general coin collectors....maybe another 5,000 or so ? Each with a few.....so another 20,000 coins. Then you hit the American public....folks who kept the coins as collectible items or didn't want to turn in their gold stash....millions potentially of hard-money types....maybe 100,000 or so turning in some but not all of their coins ? Could easily have a few hundred thousand from this group stashing it in their homes or SDBs. Very tough to quantify, I admit my numbers can be all over the map and massaged way up or down. It would be very interesting finding out from bankers of the 1920's and 1930's how many of their SDBs had gold coins because this would probably be the public at large. Collectors probably lived in safe homes that could keep their collections right there....and coin dealers/jewelers had the storages/safes to keep stuff in their stores. The public who could afford gold coins probably kept them in SDBs unless they risked hiding them in their homes (and many people rented back then so it really wasn't their home and thus less safe).

Anybody who wants the best explanation of what is happening...and also a top foreign financial columnist (the best, IMO)....read the UK Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/authors/a/ak-ao/ambrose-evans-pritchard/ It's one of the few news sites I pay to get and he's the only person I read there.

The reserves they have -- $700 billion -- are held at other Central Banks for the most part. They can't access it now -- they are worthless. Even if they HAD it in their custody -- as gold or dollars -- nobody will accept payment. Even the gold -- they can't sell it unless they want to dribble a few million dollars a day out for 10 years. Can't sell it all in bulk -- would crush the market and the only buyers with billions to buy it will NOT buy from Russia or the Russian Central Bank.

Interesting....so about 0.8% of the entire mintage. Less than 1%. Wow.....

Putin has been the biggest proponent of de-dollarization so the fact that he now wants dollars is interesting. Nothing else is worth anything I guess. BitCoin won't de-Russia itself and tell exchanges not to service Russian accounts because it wants to live up to its freedom charter but tying itself to Putin is going to tarnish BitCoin too.

Biden can replace the heavy Urals crude from Russia with more imports from Canada via the Keystone XL -- but he won't offend his Green Nuts like AOC etc. Normally, Venezuela would supply the heavy crude but that country is stuck in the 1970's thanks to AOC's Socialist friends.

Does anybody know what became of Paul Green of Numismatic News ? He wrote alot about gold coin hoards in the 2005-2012 period.

NGC's brief comments on the Saints from Jeff Garrett must be dated; I see that he included the 1984 Fake London Hoard for 1929's: https://www.ngccoin.com/coin-explorer/united-states/gold-double-eagles/saint-gaudens-20-1907-1933/19190/1929-20-ms/ He mentions he did personally buy 10 a decade or so later.

Dave, what are these "fuchsia-scripted letters" you referenced ? Do you have a picture of one ?

"....Putin has increasingly replaced trade in dollars with gold. From a record low of $2 billion worth of gold in 1995, Russia has piled up a mountain of it—now worth $130 billion, or 20% of total reserves. That’s equivalent to about 72 million 1 oz. gold coins, or 4.5 million pounds. Only the U.S., Germany and Italy hold more gold."

Nobody in their right mind is buying sushi at a gas station. Sushi lovers would never buy it there and the normal gas station clientele probably can't spell sushi.

Not saying it happened, just saying it COULD have happened. And taking a few 1933's and giving in some unworn 1932's or 1931's or even 1924's would have kept the gold inventory 100% unchanged. They melted them all.....who cares if a few 1933's got taken for collectors and someone put a bunch of 1924's in their place. No Harm, No Foul. Apparently, people close to Treasury Secretary Woodin or another VIP at Treasury considered saving a few of every year's issue before they all got melted, but it never got very far. Too bad.....

I still can't believe that by 2012 that key information on the 1983 MTB Hoard wasn't stored digitally somewhere, especially as Bauman got up there in age and Akers got sick. Damn......

No, I meant we didn't know about it until Fenton's lawyer found it. I didn't mean it was hidden now -- just not known (MAYBE hidden, but probably just not known) back in the 1990's. I just typed unclearly, Roger.

Like I said, to each his own. Reminds me of that Reece's Peanut Butter Cup commercial from the early-1970's.

So what about gold ? It's been part of our civilization for millenia. Why shouldn't a small number of people have an attachment to it above and beyond what most do ? No different than art....or horticulture....or gardening.....or sports. We all have our loves and dislikes.

I am going to try and find some stuff from the NARA portal tonight on the WF Hoard and also the 1983 MTB Hoard. Will report back....I usually have trouble navigating around that thing, so who knows if I'll get anywhere.

We keep going off the rails here, more than a defective luge track at the Olympics. At least the 1933 debate concerns the Langboard Hoard, if you call it that. Not sure what economics does.

Suppose I worked at the Philly Mint and wanted a few 1933's for myself or my coin contacts. I don't have the money at that time. My supervisor tells me as long as we have the coins in-house, I can exchange at any time since I didn't have the $$$ or coins a bit earlier in late-March/early-April 1933. Well ? Especially once it was apparent we wouldn't be striking gold coins for a while after all the EOs and pronouncements and I realize that the $20 Double Eagle can probably fetch $35 or so from my cointacts.