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Coinbuf's Journal

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When will I be priced out of collector coins

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I don't know if other collectors give this much thought, perhaps it is a concern for aging collectors more so than younger collectors.   But I often wonder when will the constant back and forth buying that happens between the dealer middle men drive the prices so far up that average collectors are left by the wayside.   After all each time a coin trades hands from dealer A to dealer B, then from dealer B to dealer C, and then back to the beginning from dealer C to dealer A the price has to be marked up a bit on each of those transactions.

This thought occurred to me after reading stories from other collectors who describe the actions on dealer day; and from my own experiences at coins shows both local and larger shows.   I cannot recall a time at any show I have attended that I have not witnessed this almost constant back and forth between the dealers.   I even setup as a local show once and saw first hand this action between the dealers.

So the question I am always left with is at what point am I going to be priced out because all the meat that was on the bone has been picked clean because all the middlemen transactions which push the prices higher and higher until the golden goose is plucked.

Maybe I'm just getting old.  :roflmao:

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I mean... yeah, you might be getting older. lol

I think we're seeing an asset bubble right now. I think a lot of people that had money anyway - white collar people like me that didn't lose a job - got stimulus money and weren't taking vacations and so they have been investing in hobbies. I don't think this spiral upward can continue forever. It most likely won't. I'm just buying things at prices I find attractive when I can and avoiding the overheated stuff for now. There's always a way to have fun collecting something that most others ignore.

I'm having great fun with my Z coins and my modern hyperinflation notes and most people don't fight me too hard for those. lol

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You guys are right, us older guys don’t have the resources that younger working people have and thus, due to the COVID caused hyper activity in coin collecting, i too have experienced this. I have spent way more than I should of and frankly, a little embarrassed by my surge in 2021. Of course the Mint took advantage and got everybody to pay way more than the new coins are worth (silver wise). So, while I await the arrival of my 2021 Morgan(cc) and 2021 ASE ms70, a good example of this hyper inflation is the 1909 s vdb, now regularly selling north of 1k. I have just completed the entire Lincoln cent collection (minus the s vdb) with literally every cent from 1909-2021 including the 2019 “w” mint version, and I am seriously thinking of selling now while the inflated market still exists. I think I can do pretty well.

and that may make me feel less guilty about my expensive hobby. I know a lot of you have extremely extensive collections. I will never get there on social security and pension.

Edited by Mr.Bill347
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I thought for sure that Covid would cause the coin hobby to slide into a slight reversal, but instead it has gone into hyper warp for just the reasons that you both noted.   The disposable money supply grew exponentially from stimulus funds.   Additionally lots of people used the low home interest rates to refi homes and pull large amounts of monies from the equity in those homes.   That money was funneled into many areas but much of it was used for discretionary spending like hobbies, RV's, and other large ticket items.

@Mr.Bill347 Actually the 09-SVDB has been falling of late, not that long ago I could have sold my MS64RB for $2600 or more, that has dropped to more like $2200 currently.   Morgan and Peace dollars are the hot tickets right now, and it seriously has me thinking of sending my Morgan dollars to auction.

But back to the issue, where does the market go from here?   Can it continue this rapid rise with the for sure coming hyper inflation, will it find a top soon or just keep on trucking.   I wish my crystal ball was more accurate on these things. lol   My concern is that if it keeps rising as it has over the past year I will be forced to the side at least until it peaks out and descends back down. 

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On 7/26/2021 at 10:38 PM, Coinbuf said:

That money was funneled into many areas but much of it was used for discretionary spending like hobbies, RV's, and other large ticket items.

It made our home purchase possible/ much easier, but it also definitely helped me to a few extra coins and notes.

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For my current collecting interests, IoM, Ukraine, World NCLT and banknotes, I'm seeing some signs of slowing, mainly due to the certified supply out pacing demand, I think, pricing for raw examples of World NCLT are still high but seem to have plateaued. I tend to think prices for most U.S. coinage and high end World coins could have a long way to go before they crest. Overall I have not seen increases, for raw circulating coinage, beyond what I would normally expect and prices are much the same as they were 1 - 2 years ago. Other than the rise in PMs it has not been to bad, a benefit of playing in the shallow end of the pool. lol 

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It all goes back to what is a coin worth? what ever someone is willing to pay for it is the bottom line. As long as the dealers can get the high prices for their coins they will keep pushing the prices up. 

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It is the "value" of our dollar dropping, due to the trillions being printed.  You will need many more worthless dollars to buy something that has real value.

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