• When you click on links to various merchants on this site and make a purchase, this can result in this site earning a commission. Affiliate programs and affiliations include, but are not limited to, the eBay Partner Network.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Profit Taking Part II- The Graph

Started by dakra,

10 posts in this topic

dakra

dakra

Posted
Posted

This is some interesting stuff!

CU3000 Chart

 

If you notice the 300 day moving average compared to the CU3000 Index, you will notice that whenever the CU3000 Index is above the 300 day moving average, it signals a down trend. When the CU3000 index is below the 300 day moving average it signals an uptrend.

 

In the past few weeks, myself and a few other collectors have "whispered" that we thought the market was heading down or some profit taking was occuring. I don't think anyone pointed out any major selling and probably didn't have any facts to support our feelings with exception to what we have seen with our own eyes or from things we heard. If you take a look at the chart, check out how the CU3000 index has moved in the last month or so. In fact, it is down around $300 from this years high that was hit in May.

 

I love coin collecting but also am an investor at heart. It makes things quite exciting. I'm also suprised with the recent move down as I have spend more for coins in the past few months than I ever have. I'm not saying that the coin market is going to crash or anything, it could go lower, it could go higher. I'm also a market contrarian... I generally buy when everyone else is selling. smile.gif

 

-Dave

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
goldog63-migration

goldog63-migration

Posted
Posted

Moving averages tend to work that way. The question is how sustained the downward move will be. As you can see on the chart there were a few dips which crossed below the moving average in '97' then resumed the run up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dakra

dakra

Posted
  • Author
Posted

If I had to guess, one of the reason's the CU3000 Index was up so high was due to the price of gold:

Gold Chart

 

There was so much talk about gold on the boards a few months ago but the talk seems to have cooled a bit. I'm also wondering if money is being moved out of coins and back into stock now as the market appears to be recovering.

 

In any case, I have to high tail it to work smile.gif

 

-Dave

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jtryka

jtryka

Posted
Posted

Well, from the chart it seems the index is still above the 6-month moving average. Of course, I am not sure what the components of the index are, or how the index is calculated, but that can certainly be important information depending on your collecting expertise (i.e. is this weighted towards moderns or classics? gold or minor coins? etc.). The interesting thing is that they have a number of sub-indices for gold, Morgan and Peace dollars, commems and others that might be of more interest Market Segment Indices depending on your collecting area. As said before, it seems the gold market in particular has cooled quite a bit, so it might be time to start looking for bargains again!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
291fifth

291fifth

Posted
Posted

My own gut feeling has been that the coin market has been soft since mid-March. This is primarily based on the reactions I get when I offer coins for sale locally. When the dealer's sales dry up they tend not to want to buy because they are poorly capitalized and simply don't have the cash. As far as the index goes, I don't know its makeup. If it is heavily weighted with gold or Morgan dollar values then it may not reflect much more than what I call the "bid" market. Remember, early US coins that actually ARE rare make up only a tiny portion of the coin market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmarguli

gmarguli

Posted
Posted

What is the CU3000 Index? I've never figured it out?

 

A made up index? Do the components change often?

 

I've never seen a serious dealer refer to this index.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jtryka

jtryka

Posted
Posted

It's been around a while, and my sense is that it was invented by CU back in the internet bubble days to make the coin market look like the stock market. I have yet to see what comprises the index, how it is weighted, or how it's calculated, so I like most people rarely look at it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
dakra

dakra

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I checked the "Market Segment Indexes" which are listed along with the CU3000, all the other indexes have a listing of coins but not the CU3000 Index. I tried to figure out if all the Indexes are related to the CU3000 but could not see a correlation.

 

It would be nice to know the coins in the CU3000 index, if someone has that information, it would be great. Now if PCGS would show a listing with the prices, that might lend it greater credibility. I'd also be interested in how they figure the day to day prices... Perhaps someone can ask the question on the Q&A forum in regards to the CU3000 one of these day?!?

 

Thanks,

Dave

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
GDJMSP

GDJMSP

Posted
Posted

The CU3000 index is the combination of all the other CU coin indexes. The individual coins that make up the other indexes can be found here under Market Segment Indexes - link

Link to comment
Share on other sites
gmarguli

gmarguli

Posted
Posted
The CU3000 index is the combination of all the other CU coin indexes. The individual coins that make up the other indexes can be found here under Market Segment Indexes - link

 

So it basically is comprised of a ton of coins in MS63-MS67 and uses the CU Price Guide as a point of reference.

 

Total useless junk.

 

Why bother wasting time with this?

 

And I notice it lists as being part of DHRC. Where are the PR70 Buffalo dollars and State Quarters then?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Go to topic listing