P(ettifoggers)CGS

[Leothelion]

How long is this BS going to last? The other day I sent an email to a seller of a PcG$ MS67 coin. It's a modern, less than two years old and the pop is 42-0. teletrade has sold 3 in the last year for $45, $45 and $85. This seller has it listed at $99 and buy it now at $125 with no bids. I offered $35, in his response he said he has it at $475 at his shop. I don't believe there are 2-3 people in the registries who would and have paid that much for this coin. Whatever the case, the majority of collectors out there are holding a figer up at you and PCG$. And there are dealers out there ripping you off and the rest of us. If you registrants had any decency and respect for your fellow collectors, you would drop this carnage and the registry set crapp and help bring back the civility and respect among all collectors. Help bring back the true market values for all coins based on rarity, (edited populations to) mintages and collector driven. Help end this poptop, I'm the number one joke of the year.

Your only taking part or getting trapped or caught up in one of the biggest scams and shyster operations that has ever hit our numismatic hobby.

Have I let the hype affect me? No. Am I having any problems finding high grade coins? No. The greatest wrong here with the registries and poptop coins is the fact that people, collectors are getting ripped off bigtime and it's amazing that there are those types out there who don't let it bother them nor do they really care about anyone else but themselves. It's everybody's responsibility to stick together and remain true and be honest to another and to the hobby.

 

Yes Leo, tell us how you really feel?..... I just did!

 

Regards, Leo

[gmarguli]

This seller has it listed at $99 and buy it now at $125 with no bids. I offered $35, in his response he said he has it at $475 at his shop.

 

He has it listed at $475 in his shop, yet he will sell it to anyone on eBay for $99. Sounds like BS. Let him keep his pop 42/0 coin. In a year it will be a pop 60/2 coin and in two years it will be a pop 123/8 coin.

 

 

Help end this poptop, I'm the number one joke of the year.

 

You owe PCG$ 25¢ for using the term Pop Top™

 

 

Your only taking part or getting trapped or caught up in one of the biggest scams and shyster operations that has ever hit our numismatic hobby.

 

Yep. While I will admit that some top pop moderns are truly rare, most are junk and will never be rare. Even some of the super high grade stuff selling for insane prices are destined to be somewhat common. I just pulled a borderline MS69 state quarter out of a mint set today. A 25¢ coin and $10 plastic may turn this into a $2500 coin. Insanity.

 

 

The greatest wrong here with the registries and poptop coins is the fact that people, collectors are getting ripped off bigtime and it's amazing that there are those types out there who don't let it bother them nor do they really care about anyone else but themselves. It's everybody's responsibility to stick together and remain true and be honest to another and to the hobby.

 

The problem is that when you try to warn people, others jump in and call you a modern basher, tell you that you are attacking someone for collecting what they like, point to certain coins as proof of a hot and rare market, and bash you any way they can. It gets tiring trying to warn others.

[truthteller]

The only recommendation I can give is this. When modern collectors spend thousands every year, they may be funding their children's college education with modern rarities . In twenty years when Junior asks to go to Harvard or Yale, the only school the modern guys can afford for their kids is the School of Hard Knocks.

 

TRUTH

[Dermott]

Well, if people can get $2500 for a State Quarter, more power to them, although the idea that this person has a coin in his store for $475 or so and is willing to sell on Ebay for $100 says a whole lot more about what's going on with the Super-Moderns. While it's nice to find something for face value or a little more that can be worth thousands, when you get a LOT of people doing it, all of a sudden, noone is going to want in on the top-end of the market. Case in point, the 1995 cent doubled die. Right after it was reported, the prices shot sky high, just a few months later when more bags are searched and pieces certified, the 95 DD is worth only a fraction of what it was. So you end up with a few people who sneak out making a quick buck, some who enjoy the coin itself, and then you have some who bought at the top end expecting it to go even further kicking themselves.

 

Which is odd to me at least from an investment standpoint. Why? Because $475 will get you a nice 14D Wheat or a low grade S VDB. $2500 will net you a VERY nice upper grade of either or multiple mid-grades. The S VDB has been steadily climbing at a nice rate and will retain it's status in the long run. As it's been stated, the moderns... won't. Oh, they can be flashy and right now people are focusing on the competition to have the best "numbers", but personally, I'd rather have a few solid mid-grade S VDBs than a State Quarter that I can get from a Mint Set. Not that I don't like the State Quarters, however the Super-Modern market is a fad within the coin market. The bubble will burst, it's just a matter of when (if it isn't already happening).

 

I do want to reiterate that I have nothing against modern coins or even super-grade moderns (although I think 70's have become too easily obtained) or even those who collect them. I just do not believe that that segment will be sustainible in the long run.

[cladking]

Everybody chases BU rolls in 1964, they can't get enough art bars in 1974, they find Morgans irresistable in '89. In fact "everybody" has always been on the wrong side of the market. Likely nothing has changed!

[Hoot]

If you registrants had any decency and respect for your fellow collectors, you would drop this carnage and the registry set [!@#%^&^] and help bring back the civility and respect among all collectors.

 

A bit of a generality, and I know not aimed at all registry participants. There is more than one way to approach collecting in terms of the registry. My personal approach (not to take all this personally, but only to provide perspective) is that I'll look for great coins in the grades I like in the series I like. And even though my sets are among the top in the registries, I could care less. I'm after great coins and I "showcase" them in order to participate in a sense of greater learning and for the community of sharing. And indeed I've learned a great deal from the experience of studying coins in the registry and the ancillary issues of "what makes a great coin," "issues of grade," "populations," and other attributes of collecting. More and more the registries have sent me in search of raw material, buying fewer and fewer previously slabbed stuff. It's not the way to build the highest ranked set, but it's vastly fun to make the additions that way.

 

Hoot

[cladking]

 

A bit of a generality, and I know not aimed at all registry participants. There is more than one way to approach collecting in terms of the registry. My personal approach (not to take all this personally, but only to provide perspective) is that I'll look for great coins in the grades I like in the series I like. And even though my sets are among the top in the registries, I could care less. I'm after great coins and I "showcase" them in order to participate in a sense of greater learning and for the community of sharing. And indeed I've learned a great deal from the experience of studying coins in the registry and the ancillary issues of "what makes a great coin," "issues of grade," "populations," and other attributes of collecting. More and more the registries have sent me in search of raw material, buying fewer and fewer previously slabbed stuff. It's not the way to build the highest ranked set, but it's vastly fun to make the additions that way.

 

Hoot

 

 

Well said! and probably a fairly common sentiment among particpants.

[Leothelion]

You owe PCG$ 25¢ for using the term Pop Top

 

I thought I was the inventor of that term.

 

The only recommendation I can give is this. When modern collectors spend thousands every year, they may be funding their children's college education with modern rarities . In twenty years when Junior asks to go to Harvard or Yale, the only school the modern guys can afford for their kids is the School of Hard Knocks.

 

TRUTH

 

, I like that!

 

I do want to reiterate that I have nothing against modern coins or even super-grade moderns (although I think 70's have become too easily obtained) or even those who collect them. I just do not believe that that segment will be sustainible in the long run.

 

I couldn't agree more!

 

Everybody chases BU rolls in 1964, they can't get enough art bars in 1974, they find Morgans irresistable in '89. In fact "everybody" has always been on the wrong side of the market. Likely nothing has changed!

 

Hi cladking

 

Have you seen my ad? Would you be interested?

 

 

I'm after great coins and I "showcase" them in order to participate in a sense of greater learning and for the community of sharing. And indeed I've learned a great deal from the experience of studying coins in the registry and the ancillary issues of "what makes a great coin," "issues of grade," "populations," and other attributes of collecting. More and more the registries have sent me in search of raw material, buying fewer and fewer previously slabbed stuff. It's not the way to build the highest ranked set, but it's vastly fun to make the additions that way.

 

Hoot

 

Hey Hoot

Point well taken. I have a great deal of respect for all dedicated collectors. And there are such dedicated collectors with alot of dough and some have gone overboard with the registries. In my opinion, the registries should be a private club. Everything, the names, the collections, the pops, the inflated prices should be kept out of the publics eye and the mainstrean of collectors. I've pointed this fact out twice in my first post and I'll say it again, hopefully in a more enlightening way. The true market value of coins is not made up by a few hard up big time spenders who's only goal is to beat out some other guy in some registry point tabloid contest. The majority of collectors are not playing the game. They are not participating in the registries. They should not be subjected to the stupid prices paid by registrants who ARE participating in the registries and this does not include the 99% who do participate and don't spend stupid money There are hundreds of dealers and sellers out there ripping off the public, the collectors by promoting and selling this shyster of an idea that somehow coins are now worth 10 fold, 100 fold just because two or three bidders went bonkers over their registry sets. Get with it people, abandon your registry sets, we will always have the forums to share..just refer to Hoots post. A backlash is what's happening to the hobby as a whole when enough would be lifetime collectors finally figure out that they have been ripped off.

 

Leo

[cladking]

[q]

 

A backlash is what's happening to the hobby as a whole when enough would be lifetime collectors finally figure out that they have been ripped off.

 

 

...and if you're wrong what will this backlash look like? Modern coins were never collected. Very few people ever had any interest or put together a collection. Most people alive today in this country have used these coins all their life or much of it. There are no hordes of old clads to turn to. There are no old time clad collections just waiting to come on the market when their owner retires. Yet virtually the entire mainstream hobby considers their vitality no more than irrational exuberance. The main stream hobby isn't selling these to fleece the gullible newbies, because the mainstream hobby doesn't own them. The mainstream hobby just sits back and tsk tsks though who are having a blast forming collections.

 

Historically these are EXACTLY the kinds of conditions which create an explosive market. While some may claim that the explosion has already occured and all that's left is the thud to come, the fact is there are still many moderns which sell for tiny fractions of what they'd sell for if the mainstream collectors had any interest, small fractions of what a comparable old coin would sell for. These markets started up two years BEFORE the registries came into being and in the early days the registries EXCLUDED modern coins.

 

I have no idea what ad you may be referring to.

[jtryka]

Clad,

 

You and I have debated this many times before, and the main problem I have is the pursuit of so called grade rarities. Here are my issues:

 

1. The extreme change in value for one (1) grade point higher at the high end of the grading range coupled with the inherant inconsistency in grading at that end of the spectrum (today it could be MS-69, top graded coin, tomorrow David Hall has a hemorrhoid flare up an voila! it's now MS-68, and worth 5% of what you just paid for it).

 

2. The disparity between the values of modern coins that are slabbed (specifically PCGS graded coins as they are the perceived market leader) and values of identical raw coins.

 

3. The fact that many of these coins can be collected in grades up to MS-65 at very low prices (a very good value in my opinion), however the emphasis of most dealers is on the ultra high grade, ultra high priced pieces. Could we not accomplish the goal of enhancing the hobby and experience of newer collectors by emphasizing this fact? I say yes, but to do so would preclude the ability of dealers and others to turn $5 coins into $5000 coins through the magic of plastic.

 

Personally, I choose to collect moderns along the lines of #3, but very few are certified. I am just happy with them raw. Perhaps someday it might be worth slabbing an MS-63 or MS-65 clad Roosevelt, but until then, I will save nice examples raw.

[cladking]

I don't really disagree with any of your points except maybe the first. If a collector is putting together the best set he can, he will normally be able to tell the difference between one point in the grading scale. Yes! He may not agree with the assessment of the grading company, and two collectors may not agree on which of the two coins only one point apart is superior, and the grading company can miss the grade by a point quite easily. However one point is plenty wide enough of a range for most collectors to see the diffeence. We are supposed to be collecting coins. Perhaps some are collecting plastic, but only because they are enboldened by the confidence generated by an independent grader.

 

High grade moderns do not normally trade raw, though certainly high grade moderns are often available raw at low prices.

[gmarguli]

If a collector is putting together the best set he can, he will normally be able to tell the difference between one point in the grading scale. Yes! He may not agree with the assessment of the grading company, and two collectors may not agree on which of the two coins only one point apart is superior, and the grading company can miss the grade by a point quite easily. However one point is plenty wide enough of a range for most collectors to see the diffeence.

 

Wait a second. A collector is supposed to be able to tell the difference between one grade point, yet you admit that the grading company can miss the grade by a point and that two collectors won't necessarily agree on which coin is better and the collector himself might not agree with the slabbed grade? If this is true, then how can a collector tell the difference? By looking at the slab?

 

The question shouldn't be if someone sticks two coins in front of a person for that person to pick out the better coin. That's easy to do. The hard thing to do is to know where the grade breaking point it is. Of those two coins one might be an MS64.9 that sneaks into an MS65 slab because of eye appeal and the other an MS66.3 that stays in an MS65 slab because of poor luster. Pick the better coin. That's easy if you're looking at marks. Now grade those two coins. Where is the breaking point for that grade and do you know it? That's the hard part that most collectors lack in the higher grades (and even the lower grades).

 

I've met many registry set collectors and their experience and knowledge varies wildly. Most dealers cannot tell an MS66 from an MS67. Sure, stick those coins in front of a dealer and ask them to pick out the nicest one and they maybe can, but that doesn't mean they know the breaking point for the grade.

 

When you get into supergrades like MS68 and MS69 I would doubt that the average registry set collector could tell the difference. This is even more true for the proofs. I know one set owner that is at (or damn close) to the number one set. I saw a coin he recently purchased that was graded higher than his previous example. He couldn't not tell which one was superior by examining the coins. His new coin was vastly superior and his previous coin was low end for the grade. This is a person who is spending more money on coins in a month than many of us make in a year. All he could say was that it was an upgrade. An upgrade to him because the slab says so. That's a sad problem.

 

Much of the supergrade modern coins coming out now are just not nice for the grade. It seems like practically every proof coming out of Newport Beach is now PR69DCAM regardless of the quality. Maybe it's changed since their modern grader left, but it was this way for a while. I have been able to examine a couple of the MS69 state quarters that were recently graded. I would call them gift grades. If you buy these coins because the are "better" then you are getting screwed.

[Tradedollarnut]

His new coin was vastly superior and his previous coin was low end for the grade. This is a person who is spending more money on coins in a month than many of us make in a year. All he could say was that it was an upgrade. An upgrade to him because the slab says so. That's a sad problem.

 

Greg - do you mean that the other way around? [ie: old coin was high end and new coin was low end and therefore no quality difference despite the higher grade on the insert]

 

[keithdagen]

I have been able to examine a couple of the MS69 state quarters that were recently graded. I would call them gift grades. If you buy these coins because the are "better" then you are getting screwed.

 

Heritage just attempted to auction one of them. It was no nicer than a MS-67 I recently sold.

[gmarguli]

His new coin was vastly superior and his previous coin was low end for the grade. This is a person who is spending more money on coins in a month than many of us make in a year. All he could say was that it was an upgrade. An upgrade to him because the slab says so. That's a sad problem.

 

Greg - do you mean that the other way around? [ie: old coin was high end and new coin was low end and therefore no quality difference despite the higher grade on the insert]

 

No. His old coin was low end for the grade. His new coin was nice for the grade and graded higher. The problem was the owner of these coins couldn't tell which one was nicer by looking at the coins. The only reason he upgraded was because of the slabbed grade and for his registry.

 

I have a problem with that. If you can't tell the difference between a low end PF66 and a solid PF67, then why spend the money to upgrade. This was also not a cheap upgrade. I'd guess the price difference was $12,000-$13,000.

 

 

[Hoot]

When you get into supergrades like MS68 and MS69 I would doubt that the average registry set collector could tell the difference. This is even more true for the proofs.

 

I could not agree more. This is a perfect example of where the registry is fueling a fire that is dangerous to the hobby (as Leo remarked). And if a person truly cannot tell the difference in those grades, then they shouldn't be involved, IMHO.

 

The fellow you remark of should be ashamed of himself.

 

Hoot

[Leothelion]

[q]

 

A backlash is what's happening to the hobby as a whole when enough would be lifetime collectors finally figure out that they have been ripped off.

 

 

...and if you're wrong what will this backlash look like? Modern coins were never collected. Very few people ever had any interest or put together a collection. Most people alive today in this country have used these coins all their life or much of it. There are no hordes of old clads to turn to. There are no old time clad collections just waiting to come on the market when their owner retires. Yet virtually the entire mainstream hobby considers their vitality no more than irrational exuberance. The main stream hobby isn't selling these to fleece the gullible newbies, because the mainstream hobby doesn't own them. The mainstream hobby just sits back and tsk tsks though who are having a blast forming collections.

 

Historically these are EXACTLY the kinds of conditions which create an explosive market. While some may claim that the explosion has already occured and all that's left is the thud to come, the fact is there are still many moderns which sell for tiny fractions of what they'd sell for if the mainstream collectors had any interest, small fractions of what a comparable old coin would sell for. These markets started up two years BEFORE the registries came into being and in the early days the registries EXCLUDED modern coins.

 

I have no idea what ad you may be referring to.

 

Hi Cladking

Everyone would like to enjoy the hobby, with confidence. I read a post yesterday about the crashes of gold, stock markets but can't refer to it at the moment but it's just a matter of time..... Enjoy your ride at the expense of many others?..........

and we will lose many collectors and then it will be another 15 to 20 years before a the trust can rebuild between collectors and dealers to where it was before the registries.

And here's another thought, I read where there are over 1.5 million collecting the state quarters and 99.9% are doing so through their coin change, bank rolls and many through the mint sets but what happens when they go to a coin show and a dealer tries to shyster them out of their money because of the registries, sure it's 'buyer beware' as someone pointed out but maybe you could help me write one up so we can send a warning with every post we write. What do you say? Wouldn't this be a great way to help your fellow collectors?

 

Leo

 

BTW, I'm looking for buyers to buy into 100 2003 US mint sets. The ad is in the BST forum.

[cladking]

Everyone would like to enjoy the hobby, with confidence. I read a post yesterday about the crashes of gold, stock markets but can't refer to it at the moment but it's just a matter of time..... Enjoy your ride at the expense of many others?..........

and we will lose many collectors and then it will be another 15 to 20 years before a the trust can rebuild between collectors and dealers to where it was before the registries.

And here's another thought, I read where there are over 1.5 million collecting the state quarters and 99.9% are doing so through their coin change, bank rolls and many through the mint sets but what happens when they go to a coin show and a dealer tries to shyster them out of their money because of the registries, sure it's 'buyer beware' as someone pointed out but maybe you could help me write one up so we can send a warning with every post we write. What do you say? Wouldn't this be a great way to help your fellow collectors?

 

I'm not certain what is being implied here, but it is true that everything which has increased in value in world history has not come crashing down. Gold is still far more valuable than copper and this isn't likely to change soon. Manhatten Island is still a good investment for $27, and this will remain true at least a little longer. 1804 dollars would buy less than an ounce of silver but will now purchase large amounts of gold. Many people are enjoying the hobby, but like gold, real estate, and 1804 dollars, there will always be an element of risk. This is assessed on an individual basis by those who consider buying anything, so hence has an affect on demand, which along with supply are the sole determining factors in the values of all things which man buys, sells, trades, or treasures.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

punctuation, spelling.

[jtryka]

but it is true that everything which has increased in value in world history has not come crashing down.

 

That is true, however just about everything that rose in value to unsustainably high levels in very short periods has come crashing down, and in some cases, has never recovered. How are tulip bulb prices relative to the peak? It took the Dow 25 years to reach the peak of 1929 after the crash. The Nasdaq is still at 1/3 of it's peak, and it may be decades before it reaches 5,000 again. The question is whether super grade moderns are a bubble or not. You seem to believe it's not, I lived through a bubble in the Nasdaq, and I believe this shows many of the signs of a bubble.

 

This is assessed on an individual basis by those who consider buying anything, so hence has an affect on demand, which along with supply are the sole determining factors in the values of all things which man buys, sells, trades, or treasures.

 

While for the most part I agree with the fundamentals of supply and demand in determining prices, I think the more important distinction is that true supply and true demand are the real long-term determinants of price. How many times have we seen sellers auction coins at high prices, then use the buyback or other means in an effort to establish a "market price"? In this case, the demand is artificial, it's an illusion. Then we need to address supply, and that's really anyone's guess. It is clear though that with top-graded moderns, supply does increase over time. Here you have two interesting dynamics: first, with a pop 1/0 coin, as soon as one more reaches that grade, the supply doubles, the third implies a 33% increase in supply, and so on in smaller increments (and with the crackout game, the real pop may not actually increase, though the pop reports will show it!). Second, and I find this intriquing, as soon as one grades a point higher, the supply of the former 1/0 becomes irrelevant, there may as well be a million, because the demand lies at the top. It's like the value of a computer with a 386 chip compared with the latest pentium. This is where I think the economic analysis gets very tricky.

[cladking]

There may be some moderns which have exploded to levels which can not be sustained. There are some well publicised examples of coins which are seemingly grossly overpriced or which have already come down. But this in no way means all these will come down, in fact many have barely increased yet. The NASDAQ crashed but E-bay stock is still making many wealthy. When do you expect Microsoft to take it's plunge? I'll bet somewhere there's a tulip worth $100,000.

 

There are lots of late date coins which sell for small fractions of what equally rare classics would sell for. If demand continues it's growth than they could one day sell for multiples rather than fractions. If demand doesn't continue it's growth we may all be better off putting our money in tulip bulbs...or Microsoft.

[jtryka]

I don't mean to be picky, but since this is my career, I have to call you on your stock information. You must realize that MSFT is still down 57% from its high in early 2000, and EBAY is still down 25% from it's high. You gave two examples that didn't even really prove your point, and I could give you hundreds of examples that prove mine, so just be careful here.

 

In the same way that not all stocks were insanely valued in 2000 or even overvalued, many modern coins are not insanely or overvalued. But just like the market in 2000, it's not the bargains that get all the attention. I thought we were talking about the insane ones here. Certainly I believe that many coins are bargains in the modern realm, many Ikes an Kennedys for example, and virtually all Roosevelts (though that's likely to change soon with the FT scam). I've already outlined where I have my problems in this area, and nothing you've said has convinced me otherwise. I think we agree in many areas, but you will probably never convince me that any modern coin is worth thousands of dollars because it has the highest possible number on the plastic that entombs it.

 

PS-FYI, word in this neck of the woods is that many MSFT insiders are selling their shares since they see the stock going nowhere for the next few years.