PCGS Stock Plunges: Sick Submitter's Fault

[gmarguli]

Collectors Universe stock (symbol: CLCT) tanked today after disappointing Wall Street again. Not even a "well timed" business announcement could halt the plunge.

 

In their 8K Report they stated: "Specifically relating to coin units and associated revenue, the owner of the Company's largest customer, who submits primarily modern coins, encountered a serious health challenge during the quarter, which had the affect of reducing revenues from this customer by approximately 45% from the third quarter of fiscal 2005. This reduction in revenues from that specific customer is expected to continue in fiscal 2006."

 

Anyone know who this person is? I've not heard of any dealers getting sick that I would associate with slabbing large quantities of moderns.

[Hoot]

Hell, I thought that was you.

 

Hoot

[gmarguli]

Hell, I thought that was you.

 

Hoot

 

No, I stopped submitting after I got this back and my invoice was signed "With Love, David Hall".

 

 

 

[Hoot]

Hell, I thought that was you.

 

Hoot

 

No, I stopped submitting after I got this back and my invoice was signed "With Love, David Hall".

 

 

 

That's a valuable coin, ya know.

[JamminJ]

Hell, I thought that was you.

 

Hoot

 

No, I stopped submitting after I got this back and my invoice was signed "With Love, David Hall".

 

 

 

 

I was pretty surprised to see the cert number actually did come up with a 2004-D cent in VG10.

[James_OldeTowne]

Greg, it looks like the stock dropped only about 7%. Overall, it's down about 40% from it's high, but it seems like the stock was a decent investment over the last few years.

 

I don't know who the sick customer would be, though it doesn't seem good to me that a company's performance would hinge so drastically on a single customer.

 

James

[IGWT]

Legend (Laura Sperba) reports across the street that the individual dealer is Hannes Tulving, Jr.

[gmarguli]

Greg, it looks like the stock dropped only about 7%. Overall, it's down about 40% from it's high, but it seems like the stock was a decent investment over the last few years.

 

The stock was down 10.35% when I posted it.

 

As for it being a decent investment, here is a stock chart of CLCT stock:

 

 

 

[jom]

How can a company be a good investment when ONE customer falls by the wayside? But it is no surprise to me the profits of PCGS are dependent on modern submissions.

 

Tulving, eh? Didn't he have some sort of "run up" scheme about 12 years ago involving the metals or maybe just rare coins? I remember a coin show owner (over in Tustin) telling me about that a long time ago....

 

jom

[TomB]

I believe at some point they also had a reverse split in there and I don't know how that is represented in the history of the stock price.

 

Greg, I should have kept the insert for my 1950-D Roosevelt that was graded PCGS MS67 yet labeled as an MS67 Capped Bust half from the 1820s. I called customer service and had them correct the insert.

[jom]

I believe at some point they also had a reverse split in there and I don't know how that is represented in the history of the stock price.

 

In Yahoo's stock price charts there is usually a little triangle showing where the stock split...I don't see one there..oddly...but in any case the price does reflect the stock split (or reverse split).

 

EDIT: Here's a pic:

 

 

jom

[IGWT]

Tulving, eh? Didn't he have some sort of "run up" scheme about 12 years ago involving the metals or maybe just rare coins?

 

The following is a quote from the 1992 Annual Report of the Federal Trade Commission:

 

"Hannes Tulving, Jr. agreed to settle allegations that, among other things, he

created and maintained an artificial coin market to induce the purchase of coins

at inflated prices. The consent decree prohibits the defendant from, among

other things, misrepresenting the degree of risk or any other fact material to a

consumer's decision to purchase any investment offering and imposes a

monetary judgment which will be partially satisfied by payment of $260,000

for consumer redress."

 

There are many reports available. Example: link

[James_OldeTowne]

I should have been a bit more specific. By "decent investment", I do not mean that if you would have bought a bunch of the stock at it's peak and just sat on it, you would be doing well right now. I don't consider that a wise investment plan. However, if you had added, say, 100 shares to your stock portfolio the first of each year over the past five years, you would be doing OK.

 

But then again, I'm not all that savvy an investor!

 

James

[midwest]

But then again, I'm not all that savvy an investor!

 

James

 

 

well of course otherwise you wouldn't pay hundreds of dollars for crusty old half dollars most people wouldn't even accept when you can get clean shiny new ones at the bank for face !

 

 

Just watch as that minmum wage teen at Mcdonalds has a mini stroke in front of you as he tries to figure out wether that 1804 Half Dollar and two dollar bill are real

 

Then while waiting for your deep fried crisco sticks and diet coke to get done the police pull up behind you. They hit you with a baton a time or two. Only then you find out that the minimum wage teen called them because he thought you were passing off fake money.

[jom]

"Hannes Tulving, Jr. agreed to settle allegations that, among other things, he

created and maintained an artificial coin market to induce the purchase of coins

at inflated prices.

 

Yep, 1992 sounds just about right. Another in a long line of "winning personalities" from the rare con...er coin market.

 

jom

[michael]

before you start or sell more rare coins or whatever in the coin game

 

first pay off who you owe money to back in 92

[jtryka]

I believe at some point they also had a reverse split in there and I don't know how that is represented in the history of the stock price.

 

In Yahoo's stock price charts there is usually a little triangle showing where the stock split...I don't see one there..oddly...but in any case the price does reflect the stock split (or reverse split).

 

EDIT: Here's a pic:

 

 

jom

 

Jom, the triangle is there in 4Q02, it was a 1-4 reverse split. This stock has been a dog for a while, and has only recently started rising with earnings. I owned this stock when it was about $6 pre-split, and sold it rather quickly for a small loss I believe, which is a good thing as I'd still be down 50% on it.

[michael]

Sick Submitter's Fault

 

i hope he feels better and also he pays off all the people he screwed out of $$$ back in the late early 1990's

[jom]

Jom, the triangle is there in 4Q02, it was a 1-4 reverse split.

 

Yeah, I wasn't clear. When I said I didn't see the "triangle" I was referring to Greg's original chart above....I found a more detailed one which did have the split noted.

 

jom

[4ucoin-migration]

If you Google Hannes Tulving, you will find many intersting things. One item I liked was right on the web site. He states that David Hall and PCGS asked him to be on their grading pannel. Apparently, he runs through millions in coins. Looks like mostly gold and silver moder bullion types.

 

There is another article that talks about lossing a few thousand dollars when Tulving "went belly up." I stopped looking after awhile but I'm sure with a little patience you can get to the bottom of the story.

 

And, did PCGS ever disclose in a 10k or other SEC filing that they were so depended on one customer ? Seems like a material fact. And, finally, price charts reflect stock splits. In other words, the yield is accurate without adjustment.

[gmarguli]

If you Google Hannes Tulving, you will find many intersting things. One item I liked was right on the web site. He states that David Hall and PCGS asked him to be on their grading pannel. Apparently, he runs through millions in coins. Looks like mostly gold and silver moder bullion types.

 

So, Tulving submits a lot of moderns. I see Tulving sells a lot of PF69 coins.

 

I see DHRC sells a lot of PF70 coins.

 

I wonder what happens to the PF70s Tulving gets?

[braddick]

[HaydenTubbs]

Hell, I thought that was you.

 

Hoot

 

No, I stopped submitting after I got this back and my invoice was signed "With Love, David Hall".

 

 

 

[cointagious]

So, Tulving submits a lot of moderns. I see Tulving sells a lot of PF69 coins.

 

I see DHRC sells a lot of PF70 coins.

 

I wonder what happens to the PF70s Tulving gets?

 

 

 

I'm under the impression that DHRC pre-buys from submitters. I don't recall if there is some other consideration involved such as reduced grading fees.

 

Anyone??

[gmarguli]

So, Tulving submits a lot of moderns. I see Tulving sells a lot of PF69 coins.

 

I see DHRC sells a lot of PF70 coins.

 

I wonder what happens to the PF70s Tulving gets?

 

 

 

I'm under the impression that DHRC pre-buys from submitters. I don't recall if there is some other consideration involved such as reduced grading fees.

 

Anyone??

 

 

Some random thoughts:

 

If true, then wouldn't it really be a lie that he doesn't submit to PCGS if he is "pre-buying" coins that are submitted?

 

And if he were pre-buying only certain grades, like PF70 for example, wouldn't it be a tainted coin as the graders might give the coins special consideration and perhaps grade only the number of PF70s that the retail outlet was interested in? Not that this would ever happen, as most everyone in the coin industry is ethical to a fault and DH is loved and trusted by everyone, but there is the perception that this could happen.

 

I would hope if this were true that there wouldn't be any reduced grading fees involved, as wouldn't that give him an unfair advantage in the marketplace?

 

Perhaps the FTC & Attorney General should be notified so they can look into this to prove that this operation is as ethical as we all know it is?

[cointagious]

So, Tulving submits a lot of moderns. I see Tulving sells a lot of PF69 coins.

 

I see DHRC sells a lot of PF70 coins.

 

I wonder what happens to the PF70s Tulving gets?

 

 

 

I'm under the impression that DHRC pre-buys from submitters. I don't recall if there is some other consideration involved such as reduced grading fees.

 

Anyone??

 

 

Some random thoughts:

 

If true, then wouldn't it really be a lie that he doesn't submit to PCGS if he is "pre-buying" coins that are submitted?

 

And if he were pre-buying only certain grades, like PF70 for example, wouldn't it be a tainted coin as the graders might give the coins special consideration and perhaps grade only the number of PF70s that the retail outlet was interested in? Not that this would ever happen, as most everyone in the coin industry is ethical to a fault and DH is loved and trusted by everyone, but there is the perception that this could happen.

 

I would hope if this were true that there wouldn't be any reduced grading fees involved, as wouldn't that give him an unfair advantage in the marketplace?

 

Perhaps the FTC & Attorney General should be notified so they can look into this to prove that this operation is as ethical as we all know it is?

 

 

I'm hazy on the details so I'll check into it a little more tomorow as I'll be attending a coin show and one of sources of that info will be there.

[kranky]

Tulving, eh? Didn't he have some sort of "run up" scheme about 12 years ago involving the metals or maybe just rare coins? I remember a coin show owner (over in Tustin) telling me about that a long time ago....

 

jom

 

I have a box of Tulving coins sitting on my desk as a permanent reminder to not be stupid. (It doesn't always work, though!).

 

I bought them in March of 1989. At that time, he published price lists that showed ever-increasing values of the coins. But, of course, that couldn't continue forever. I've heard that the coins he sold graded comparably at the top services but I've never tried any.

[Russ-migration]

So, Tulving submits a lot of moderns. I see Tulving sells a lot of PF69 coins.

 

I see DHRC sells a lot of PF70 coins.

 

I wonder what happens to the PF70s Tulving gets?

 

Wondercoin.

 

Russ, NCNE

[IGWT]

no one has bashed moderns...............

 

but the plastic strumpts that are adding demand and PROMOTION which makes up 99% of the price of the coin by ga-ga HIGH grade tags and plastic

 

as when you make an accusation of pointing a finger remember that four are pointing at yourself and your mistaken misunderstanding of accusing the wrong person

 

point the finger at the plastic ga-ga grade tag maker AND PROMOTER not the collector

 

buy the coin not the holder

 

if you want to collect ga-ga high grade plastic holdered moderns where demand makes up 99% of the value of the coin so be it

 

but do not let your guilty conscience let you attack others for your insecurities

 

collect what you like with money you can afford to lose

 

Wondercoin.

 

Russ, NCNE

 

[ElectricEye-migration]

Perhaps it is a result of the last submission price hike and the doubling of the membership fees...