What makes a coin rare? 1 1

[CherryO]

What makes a coin rare? 
Mintage? Year? # graded? Collector demand? Country of issue? 
Here’s my example:

[VKurtB]

In the COMMERCIAL sense, what makes a coin rare is an excess of demand over supply, usually by a wide margin. In the TECHNICAL sense, rarity is determined by raw mintage. There can be a coin for which only 5 exist, but only 3 people want it. 

[CherryO]

My luck it wold be three broke people 🤣

[VKurtB]

On 4/16/2024 at 12:03 PM, CherryO said:

My luck it wold be three broke people 🤣

It’s corollary to Murphy’s Law. 

[The Neophyte Numismatist]

Welcome to the boards!!! 

 

IMHO - The leading indicator is mintage, and the lagging indicator is survival.  Therefore, you can have a low-mintage proof that is not really "rare", because many of them were saved.  Likewise, you can have a business strike that is slightly higher mintage than some of its peers, but because these coins were not saved - they did not survive.

How a coin that is not saved becomes more scarce: Think about the 1932-D Washington Quarter.  While I would not consider this coin "rare", it is more scarce than the 1932-S counterpart (which has a lower mintage).  Why?  More people saved the 1932-S.

How a saved coin makes the issue less scarce:  Think about the 1950-D nickel.  Also, not a coin I would call "rare".  However, this coin is a key date that wasn't, because it was saved in large quantities.

Note: One thing that always bugs me in how some collectors talk about rarity is basing the rarity scale in terms of condition.  As stated above, I base rarity on the number of surviving coins available.  I do not subscribe to an R.1 coin being described to me as R.6, because it is at the top of the condition census.  I would always consider the coin R.1, but certainly respect the difficulty of buying coins at the top of the condition census. (I do know that commercial TPGs do mix rarity and condition, but I think this is a mistake).

Edited April 16 by The Neophyte Numismatist

[zadok]

On 4/16/2024 at 1:03 PM, CherryO said:

My luck it wold be three broke people 🤣

...worse yet 3 who already have one....

[zadok]

On 4/16/2024 at 1:15 PM, The Neophyte Numismatist said:

Welcome to the boards!!! 

 

IMHO - The leading indicator is mintage, and the lagging indicator is survival.  Therefore, you can have a low-mintage proof that is not really "rare", because many of them were saved.  Likewise, you can have a business strike that is slightly higher mintage than some of its peers, but because these coins were not saved - they did not survive.

How a coin that is not saved becomes more scarce: Think about the 1932-D Washington Quarter.  While I would not consider this coin "rare", it is more scarce than the 1932-S counterpart (which has a lower mintage).  Why?  More people saved the 1932-S.

How a saved coin makes the issue less scarce:  Think about the 1950-D nickel.  Also, not a coin I would call "rare".  However, this coin is a key date that wasn't, because it was saved in large quantities.

Note: One thing that always bugs me in how some collectors talk about rarity is basing the rarity scale in terms of condition.  As stated above, I base rarity on the number of surviving coins available.  I do not subscribe to an R.1 coin being described to me as R.6, because it is at the top of the condition census.  I would always consider the coin R.1, but certainly respect the difficulty of buying coins at the top of the condition census. (I do know that commercial TPGs do mix rarity and condition, but I think this is a mistake).

...survivability factor considerations...known to exist, frequency of availability....

[Mike Meenderink]

The coin you have posted is very beautiful and has a low mintage. The 2019 Palau S $1 Sand Dollar II had a total mintage of 2,019 coins. Of those coins less than 110 have been graded MS 70. (100 at PCGS & 5 at NGC). Numista shows this coin as a high 92 Numista Rarity rating on a scale of 0 - 100 making this a rarer coin among members there. The coin is .999 fine and has a silver bullion value of $28.19. The numismatic value of this coin ranges between $395 - $475. The coin is numerically rare at a low 2,019 total mintage however, if the quality of all the coins minted was consistent (which they usually are) MOST (95%)of these coins would grade MS 70 making them as individual coins not particularly conditionally rare.  IMO this is a really beautiful coin to look at and will gain value as time goes on. Cheers!

Edited April 16 by Mike Meenderink

[CherryO]

@Mike Meenderink thanks for the insite 

[powermad5000]

On 4/16/2024 at 11:50 AM, CherryO said:

What makes a coin rare? 
Mintage? Year? # graded? Collector demand? Country of issue?

While mintage number plays a primary role in rarity (the less made the harder it is to find), in my opinion it depends on the type, and also the grade in that type. Modern issues will mostly grade very high, making high grade not a factor in rarity. That is where mintage number plays its role. On older coins such as Morgans, mintage number plays only part of a role. Take an 1884 S Morgan for example. For the series, it has a somewhat high mintage number in the series at 3,200,000. Being they were all released for circulation, there are tons of circulated examples, but the coin becomes increasingly rare in correlation to grade. An AU 55 lists for $525. AU 58 for $2,200. And MS 60 for $9,000 with each next higher grade becoming commensurately more expensive due to the lower amount of them at each higher grade level. Going further back to early coppers, survivability plays more of a role. There are some types that had significant mintage numbers per se, but the survivability of some makes them rare when there are some with less than 100 known survivors.

I don't think demand necessarily correlates to rarity as much as it does to market value. If there is a coin with 100,000 made, but for whatever reason is insanely popular with people to the point where they hoard them, sure they become hard to get, and sure they become more expensive, but their mintage number remains.

To me, true rarity exists where there is only one or two or maybe 5 of a particular coin. If there is only one, that means only one collector can have it. Take an 1885 Trade Dollar Proof as an example. Only 5 were made. It is so difficult to get most collectors call it uncollectable because they will never get a chance to own one. Or a 1795 Jefferson Head Lettered Edge Large Cent. Only 3 are known. With that few known, grade is not the factor. It is nearly impossible to obtain one. That to me is what makes something truly rare. Something with so few you will pretty much only get to dream about it.

[Jason Abshier]

That’s actually a good question with some mixed answers … demands are what drive the price of coin up , is what really makes a coin become known as “rare” on buyers market, rare to you might mean it was hard for you obtain for your personal collection  …. A lot world coins have low low mintages compared to a lot US coinage why does US coins have such high prices ? They are driven by supply and demand most are not even rarities they were mass produce in the mints …

As in niches of the world coin collecting crowd there’s a lot coins that are below 200-500 mintage mark they just don’t have fanfare to make them rare by demands but rare for someone’s personal collection… your coin you showed it had mintage of 2,000+ it’s not really considered rare in my terms quiet common in fact 

[RWB]

The example is a commonly available, mass produced item sold to confused and unwary people. These things never touched the shores of any of Palau's 340 islands and will not purchase anything. The only currency is the US dollar -- which this thing is not.