Why Someday Moderns Will be Hot. 0

[cladking]

It is a foregone conclusion because many of these coins have everything going for them.   Circulating coins throughout history have appealed to lots of collectors which is why we have uncirculated barber dimes as well as ancients.  But we also have nice XF coins from series that became almost universally worn in large part because collectors also saved these coins from further circulation.  Most people seem to think that if they ignore moderns they'll just go away but AG 1889 indian cents don't just go away and neither will moderns despite abuse and neglect.   

Very few circulation issue moderns have done very well since WWII but some have seen stupendous increases not so much because they are "hot" or popular.  Indeed, many catalogers won't even report higher prices on moderns because they believe it offends the "real collectors" for who they print their guides.   Prices when they do increase increase because there is suddenly some little demand.  Thus we see higher prices on things like Chinese, Russian, and Indian coins.  There are many beautiful, historic, and important coins (most NCLT) made in the last 75 years with tiny mintages, even mintages well below most classics and they go begging as well. 

This can not persist.  It's already been 75 years so maybe another 75 years but don't bet on it.   There are a large number of new collectors and the only real difference between old coins and new is their age.    

[zadok]

On 4/11/2024 at 3:34 PM, cladking said:

It is a foregone conclusion because many of these coins have everything going for them.   Circulating coins throughout history have appealed to lots of collectors which is why we have uncirculated barber dimes as well as ancients.  But we also have nice XF coins from series that became almost universally worn in large part because collectors also saved these coins from further circulation.  Most people seem to think that if they ignore moderns they'll just go away but AG 1889 indian cents don't just go away and neither will moderns despite abuse and neglect.   

Very few circulation issue moderns have done very well since WWII but some have seen stupendous increases not so much because they are "hot" or popular.  Indeed, many catalogers won't even report higher prices on moderns because they believe it offends the "real collectors" for who they print their guides.   Prices when they do increase increase because there is suddenly some little demand.  Thus we see higher prices on things like Chinese, Russian, and Indian coins.  There are many beautiful, historic, and important coins (most NCLT) made in the last 75 years with tiny mintages, even mintages well below most classics and they go begging as well. 

This can not persist.  It's already been 75 years so maybe another 75 years but don't bet on it.   There are a large number of new collectors and the only real difference between old coins and new is their age.    

...give me a list of 10 modern coins, legal tender, lets say after 1964 that r not rare varieties that u believe will appreciate in value, lets say double/triple in the next 75 years....

[J P M]

On 4/11/2024 at 3:34 PM, cladking said:

only real difference between old coins and new is their age. 

Well maybe the type of metal like nickel, silver and gold help. 

[zadok]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:33 PM, J P M said:

Well maybe the type of metal like nickel, silver and gold help. 

...dont forget collectability....

[J P M]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:36 PM, zadok said:

...dont forget collectability....

Yes. I am not sorry to say I have no Presidential or Sac Dollars. What are those coins made out of Copper Clad? Some of the proofs do look ok but what is the melt value of a regular strike $1 coins compared to a Morgan, Peace or even an Ike.

[Moxie15]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:32 PM, zadok said:

...give me a list of 10 modern coins, legal tender, lets say after 1964 that r not rare varieties that u believe will appreciate in value, lets say double/triple in the next 75 years....

French 1 centieme in UNC

Panama Balboa

Italian pre euro in very high grade

1998 eagle back Washington quarter in Uncirculated

Canada post 1964 silver quarters and dimes

uncirculated Ikes

Most 2023 and 2024 British issues

Well struck 1964 to 1969 Jeffersons

Uncirculated Red early Zinc Memorial cents

High grade early Euros

 

There are ten that I think will double their value easily in 75 years, some much sooner.

 

 

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 3:32 PM, zadok said:

...give me a list of 10 modern coins, legal tender, lets say after 1964 that r not rare varieties that u believe will appreciate in value, lets say double/triple in the next 75 years....

1969 25c in MS-65 Currently has a Redbook price of $10 but actually sells for as little as a couple dollars should list for over $100 if there is ever any demand.

Any such list has to be predicated on the assumption that demand actually arises.  You'll know there is a little bit of demand when every coin shop maintains a supply of moderns.  

1984 1c in true Gem (MS-65 and attractive) lists for 30c and May be a $500 coin.

1976 type I Ike in MS-63 list for $10 in MS-63 but nice choice specimens could easily and quickly approach $50.

1982-P quarter in true Gem is a $1000 coin.  I'm not talking about the mushy strikes the services grade as "MS-66 or 7" but rather well made, well struck, solid strikes by new dies and clean.  

Any pre-1971 nickel in Gem FS should at least triple.  

1971 nickels in chBU list for 75c but are really $30 coins.

I could go on and on because most moderns are grossly undervalued due to lack of demand.  The 1971 nickel, for instance, is at least ten times scarcer than the '50-D nickel which once sold at hundreds of dollars in today's money and still sells for 24 times as much as the far scarcer '71.  Most circulating moderns are far scarcer than older coins but have lower prices because they are ignored.  But it's a little above the level of chBU where moderns are really tough.  Coins in the past were made to far higher standards so most  are quite attractive in pristine condition.  Collectors didn't need to go rummaging through rolls and bags to find one nice enough for his collection.  One didn't need to travel the country trying to find a nice coin of the current date.  But most moderns were issued with multiple major problems.  They are poorly centered messes weakly struck by worn dies and then scratched and gouged in the mint's handling equipment and then roughly handled on the way to the bank.  "Gemmy" just means they lack ANY of these problems or suffer only a little from them.  These are coins that look like the 1907 BU barber quarter that people got at the bank in 1907.  

Nice attractive MS-64 and better is where so many moderns are tough.  It's not that there are lots of lower grades, there aren't, but there are very few nice attractive coins of most moderns of all denominations.  Of course there are many millions of some of these coins like 1979 cents which is why everyone thinks all moderns are common but even MS-65 '79 cents can be elusive because so many are scratched.  Of course with millions of these out there there could be lots and lots of gemmy coins but nobody knows because nobody collects them.  They don't collect them because of the foolish notion that since '79 pennies are common then '76 type I Ikes must be common as well.  

 

Price increases in other country's moderns have been absolutely explosive when they occur.  Indian mint sets went from a few dollars each to a few thousand.  I would expect the same thing for US moderns if they are ever collected. Certainly it will be more muted here because this is and was a major country where India was highly limited in its early days and has grown explosively.  People didn't save early Indian coinage. A few did save US.  

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:25 PM, Moxie15 said:

Canada post 1964 silver quarters and dimes

I've always had great difficulty locating these.  I have a few nice choice nickel rolls but all my dimes and quarters are singles.  

On 4/11/2024 at 4:25 PM, Moxie15 said:

Uncirculated Red early Zinc Memorial cents

These are greatly underappreciated.  Not only did so many of these corrode away but most looked like junk before they turned to dust.  

On 4/11/2024 at 4:25 PM, Moxie15 said:

Panama Balboa

Panama is hot.   They have some nice coins.  

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:25 PM, Moxie15 said:

Italian pre euro in very high grade

Those '50's era 100L can be tough even in MS-60.  Really nice choice coins are much tougher yet.  

Collectors knew better than to save stainless steel so they missed these.  

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 3:33 PM, J P M said:

Well maybe the type of metal like nickel, silver and gold help. 

There's not much difference between a '50-D and '71 nickel except the date and the fact the latter is 10x scarcer and 24x cheaper.  

[VKurtB]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:48 PM, cladking said:

1969 25c in MS-65 Currently has a Redbook price of $10 but actually sells for as little as a couple dollars should list for over $100 if there is ever any demand.

There is no “should be”; there’s only “is”. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 4/11/2024 at 4:32 PM, zadok said:

...give me a list of 10 modern coins, legal tender, lets say after 1964 that r not rare varieties that u believe will appreciate in value, lets say double/triple in the next 75 years....

Respectfully? Fanciful!  I have been waiting patiently for 75 years since 1964 for the Kennedy autopsy photos to be released and now you're upping the ante up another 75 years?  For coins?  How many of us are going to be around? [I've been around here 5 years.  Do you realistically expect me to be lurking about FIFTEEN times that? More to the point, of those planning to be around, how many will care? 

I am not particularly fond of these X, Y, and Z generations, but of one thing I am certain, They are all graduates of the school of "IMMEDIATE GRATIFICATION."  Ain' nobody waitin' 'til 2099 to get paid!  Word!

[World Colonial]

On 4/11/2024 at 5:48 PM, cladking said:

1969 25c in MS-65 Currently has a Redbook price of $10 but actually sells for as little as a couple dollars should list for over $100 if there is ever any demand.

This is feasible, if in future dollars.  If in 2024 dollars, maybe in MS-66.

It all depends upon your timeframe too.

On 4/11/2024 at 5:48 PM, cladking said:

1984 1c in true Gem (MS-65 and attractive) lists for 30c and May be a $500 coin.

What's the TPG grade equivalent to your MS-65?

There are already about 2000 right now in MS-66 graded by NGC and PCGS and the MS-67 count isn't low either.  About half are the DDO.

The non-DDO recently sold on eBay for at or below the cost of grading ($15).  That's not a low price for most coins with this TPG count.

On 4/11/2024 at 5:48 PM, cladking said:

1976 type I Ike in MS-63 list for $10 in MS-63 but nice choice specimens could easily and quickly approach $50.

If a TPG MS-63 really sells for $10 now, I doubt it.  PCGS has graded 3600+ in MS-64 or better, not even close to a low number and there certainly plenty more. 

On 4/11/2024 at 5:48 PM, cladking said:

1982-P quarter in true Gem is a $1000 coin.  I'm not talking about the mushy strikes the services grade as "MS-66 or 7" but rather well made, well struck, solid strikes by new dies and clean.  

If an MS-67 doesn't meet your criteria for "gem", PCGS has graded two MS-68 and NGC has graded one.  These three coins are already worth over $1000.

On 4/11/2024 at 5:48 PM, cladking said:

Price increases in other country's moderns have been absolutely explosive when they occur.  Indian mint sets went from a few dollars each to a few thousand.  I would expect the same thing for US moderns if they are ever collected. Certainly it will be more muted here because this is and was a major country where India was highly limited in its early days and has grown explosively.  People didn't save early Indian coinage. A few did save US.  

There is no such thing as world "moderns" but even if there was, your posts demonstrate you don't know how much the coins you consider "scarce" are actually worth, previously or now.

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 6:50 PM, World Colonial said:

It all depends upon your timeframe too.

To date all movements in modern coins have been explosive.  This is because there is no supply and no demand.  When demand materializes changes are explosive.  

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 6:50 PM, World Colonial said:

What's the TPG grade equivalent to your MS-65?

What I call "Gem" (MS-65) might grade anywhere between MS-64 and MS-67 but it depends on the coin and date.  

1984 cents are one where we disagree a lot.  Almost every single one of these has two major problems; not one or the other but both.  They have rough ugly surfaces and they have severe plating issues.  For this reason coins without any marking on them often grade high.  I believe in a "bump" for tough dates but no more than one grade.   In addition to the two problems there are often problems with spotting and tarnish as well.  Nice attractive specimens are not at all common.   

To be MS-65 a coin must be Gem in every aspect rather than just very little marking.  Many moderns are gem in no aspect, no characteristic, and in no way at all.  They are simply mediocre coins.  1984 cents rarely even approach mediocracy.  Mint set coins are well struck by new dies but have every other problem associated with the date.  

On 4/11/2024 at 6:50 PM, World Colonial said:

If a TPG MS-63 really sells for $10 now, I doubt it.  PCGS has graded 3600+ in MS-64 or better, not even close to a low number and there certainly plenty more. 

Yes.  There are hundreds more, even thousands more.  

But potential collectors number in the millions and attractive 1976 Ikes number in the thousands or, at most, tens of thousands.  

On 4/11/2024 at 6:50 PM, World Colonial said:

If an MS-67 doesn't meet your criteria for "gem", PCGS has graded two MS-68 and NGC has graded one.  These three coins are already worth over $1000.

I haven't seen them but I'd wager any MS-68 is a true Gem even for '82-P quarters.  Probably some of the lower grades are true Gems as well.  

I've been told that most of the high grades come from souvenir sets.  I know these sets.  And I know you can't find a true Gem in them on the basis of the fact I've seen so many and nothing even comes close.  

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 7:59 PM, cladking said:

I've been told that most of the high grades come from souvenir sets.  I know these sets.  And I know you can't find a true Gem in them on the basis of the fact I've seen so many and nothing even comes close.  

I've been looking at and buying these sets since 1982, long before anyone even thought of collecting high grade moderns.  My experience is necessarily representative of mintage.  

You can find lots of pretty clean and attractive MS-64's (what I call "gemmy) but these coins are not well struck nor are the dies in good condition.  None are well struck and no dies are new.  I have no doubt they are fine for the buyers and they are attractive coins, but Gems they are not.  

[World Colonial]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:59 PM, cladking said:

Yes.  There are hundreds more, even thousands more.  

But potential collectors number in the millions and attractive 1976 Ikes number in the thousands or, at most, tens of thousands.  

No, there aren't. 

There isn't a single coin outside of bullion NCLT bought at this price by anywhere near this number of collectors and then only ASE.  The collector base will never come close to your inference or what you have claimed/inferred in the past because there is no evidence that the public finds collecting that interesting.

Collecting in the 60's certainly doesn't fit this profile, as it was overwhelmingly at FV or near it.

On 4/11/2024 at 8:59 PM, cladking said:

I haven't seen them but I'd wager any MS-68 is a true Gem even for '82-P quarters.  Probably some of the lower grades are true Gems as well.  

I've been told that most of the high grades come from souvenir sets.  I know these sets.  And I know you can't find a true Gem in them on the basis of the fact I've seen so many and nothing even comes close.  

 If the MS-68 doesn't meet your criteria, one doesn't exist.

[World Colonial]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:06 PM, cladking said:

To date all movements in modern coins have been explosive.  This is because there is no supply and no demand.  When demand materializes changes are explosive.  

It mostly depends upon the cost of competing alternatives because virtually no one collects in a vacuum.

In the past, you've posted all kinds of prices where it often would make the coin completely uncompetitive with the likely alternatives.  

1969-P in MS-66 I consider feasible @$100 because it's considered somewhat of a semi-key date.  Or some other coin in isolation.

The price forecasts you provided in one prior PCGS thread will never happen because it would make far too many US moderns completely uncompetitive.

[Jason Abshier]

I do see some kind of a market in future with modern collectors , I don’t know if it will be that extreme tho …. I’m probably gonna get whipped by some on here I do believe there will be a modern market for low mintage Bullion coins ( I know everyone bashes bullion “but it’s only worth melt”) I get it from their perspectives , but I’ve witness with my own eyes new collectors have been paying high dollars for low mintage Silver Bullion coins what I call “fantasy” silver rounds from reputable mints from around the world …..

I see growing popularity in ancient coinage , as well as some older classic world coins and Exonumia as well , in fact I was chatting with few young collectors the other day on discord they were around ages 13-18 years old they were really involved into the Old old old German states , Holy Roman Empire coinage I had pleasure watching them showing me coins they had in their collections , rarely do I meet young numismatic collectors who are in the old old world stuff these kids were book smart too they studied a lot taught me some stuff made me look it up myself … HA ! 
 

it’s hard to say what market will be 75 years from now I won’t be around that long …. Classic coinage will always have some sort of demand as long as collectors teach the next generation to come …. All coinage 1965 and up will be somewhat considered classic coinage in next 75 years from now , after all coin collecting been around since Middle Ages !!!! How far we have come today …so let’s not get to wrapped up in to “valuation” what stuff should be worth when collecting should be about study coinage and assembling a collection not just about $$$$

[cladking]

On 4/11/2024 at 8:17 PM, World Colonial said:

The price forecasts you provided in one prior PCGS thread will never happen because it would make far too many US moderns completely uncompetitive.

I can't predict the future.   All I am saying is that if moderns ever get any attention from collectors they will find that they must compete with one another for a lot of moderns that are in extremely short supply.  I don't know if this demand will ever develop or its magnitude if it does but there is a potential to have many times as many collectors as there are coins.  

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 4:40 AM, Jason Abshier said:

I do see some kind of a market in future with modern collectors , I don’t know if it will be that extreme tho …. I’m probably gonna get whipped by some on here I do believe there will be a modern market for low mintage Bullion coins ( I know everyone bashes bullion “but it’s only worth melt”) I get it from their perspectives , but I’ve witness with my own eyes new collectors have been paying high dollars for low mintage Silver Bullion coins what I call “fantasy” silver rounds from reputable mints from around the world …..

I see growing popularity in ancient coinage , as well as some older classic world coins and Exonumia as well , in fact I was chatting with few young collectors the other day on discord they were around ages 13-18 years old they were really involved into the Old old old German states , Holy Roman Empire coinage I had pleasure watching them showing me coins they had in their collections , rarely do I meet young numismatic collectors who are in the old old world stuff these kids were book smart too they studied a lot taught me some stuff made me look it up myself … HA ! 
 

it’s hard to say what market will be 75 years from now I won’t be around that long …. Classic coinage will always have some sort of demand as long as collectors teach the next generation to come …. All coinage 1965 and up will be somewhat considered classic coinage in next 75 years from now , after all coin collecting been around since Middle Ages !!!! How far we have come today …so let’s not get to wrapped up in to “valuation” what stuff should be worth when collecting should be about study coinage and assembling a collection not just about $$$$

It's really only natural in the computer age where collectibles and information are at everybody's  fingertips for newer younger collectors to branch out and have more diverse interests.  In the early days of of the rapidly growing collector base in 1999 many of the old US coin collector base were far less than encouraging to the new collectors.  Rather than talk about their passion for finding a New Jersey quarter in pocket change they told them that real coin collectors bought old New Jersey coppers.  In many real ways they are still doing it.  It seems many old timers would rather someone not collect coins at all rather than collect moderns.  The hobby is perceived by many as being exclusive.  

Yes, there appears to be growing interest in all sorts of coins, tokens, and medals.  It will take years for all this to shake out and for individual collectors to define all their different collections.  Even the mechanisms to distribute coins are in their infancy when seen from the perspective of the cost to acquire very common collectibles like bus tokens or ancient coins.  Many very very common items routinely sell for 20 or $30 on eBay.  At such prices massive collections of things like amusement tokens or mardi gras doubloons are out of reach for most collectors.  

The future will unfold naturally based on what we do today.  Ignoring the realities of trends is not healthy and not conducive to the development of a future that values its own past.  

The future always comes much more quickly than anyone anticipates because time don't fly, it bounds and leaps.   

[Jason Abshier]

@cladking I’m all for the hobby whatever makes someone happy so be it … I don’t know why some long time collectors are wishing modern market will crash and so on waste of time collecting in that field , we are supposed to be supporting the hobby in all sectors classic or modern , medals , tokens , and so on …. Seems like some have lost their ways caught up in market hype what is selling hot now for profit and are only worried about making a nice profit on their coins in the future… I got it  sure we all like nice coins , but I embrace and accept all parts of market only worrying about my collection and what I’m buying that makes me happy … not sure if some collectors are worried that market is shifting with newer millennials collectors focusing on modern coinage stuff and abandoning classical coinage ? 

[samclemen3991]

Jason Abshier your point is well made.  There is a tendency for some people to portray coin collecting as some sort of treasure hunt.  "Do You have this penny worth 10 million dollars in your pocket?"  This valuation as reason for involvement is a mirage that makes the vast majority of collectors cringe.  Real coin collecting has at it's focus history, myth, great stories and links to past events.

I know I did not get involved in coins because I thought it was a get rich scheme.  If any modern coins have a good story to tell or bring people the joy of owning it because it links them to the story of their lives, then they will become sought after items.  James

[VKurtB]

On 4/11/2024 at 5:05 PM, cladking said:

On 4/11/2024 at 4:25 PM, Moxie15 said:

Canada post 1964 silver quarters and dimes

I've always had great difficulty locating these.  I have a few nice choice nickel rolls but all my dimes and quarters are singles.

Try being in Canada. “ You have to hunt ducks where the ducks are.”

Edited April 12 by VKurtB

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 9:15 AM, Jason Abshier said:

@cladking I’m all for the hobby whatever makes someone happy so be it … I don’t know why some long time collectors are wishing modern market will crash and so on waste of time collecting in that field , we are supposed to be supporting the hobby in all sectors classic or modern , medals , tokens , and so on …. Seems like some have lost their ways caught up in market hype what is selling hot now for profit and are only worried about making a nice profit on their coins in the future… I got it  sure we all like nice coins , but I embrace and accept all parts of market only worrying about my collection and what I’m buying that makes me happy … not sure if some collectors are worried that market is shifting with newer millennials collectors focusing on modern coinage stuff and abandoning classical coinage ? 

One of the things I love most about the hobby is the passion of collectors.  Without other people the hobby would be a lonely place and without passion it would hold no sway over me.  it doesn't matter if they are collecting 1804 dollars, transportation tokens, or rare thimbles it's the passion that holds the hobby together not rare coins or rare baseball cards.  

This hobby almost died in 1995 not because so few people had joined it since 1965 but because passion was sapped from it in keeping new people away.  Everything needs new blood and the exuberance that comes with it but somehow many expect, and even demand, that new collectors buy old coins and others be steered clear.  

The hobby has a new infusion of excitement and we can still shape how the future unfolds but no matter what we do or how we do it it is a foregone conclusion moderns will be hot someday.  The only question is will they become a mass market or forever remain a backwater.  It would be far better for the hobby in the long term if they become as real market. 

[zadok]

On 4/12/2024 at 3:06 PM, cladking said:

One of the things I love most about the hobby is the passion of collectors.  Without other people the hobby would be a lonely place and without passion it would hold no sway over me.  it doesn't matter if they are collecting 1804 dollars, transportation tokens, or rare thimbles it's the passion that holds the hobby together not rare coins or rare baseball cards.  

This hobby almost died in 1995 not because so few people had joined it since 1965 but because passion was sapped from it in keeping new people away.  Everything needs new blood and the exuberance that comes with it but somehow many expect, and even demand, that new collectors buy old coins and others be steered clear.  

The hobby has a new infusion of excitement and we can still shape how the future unfolds but no matter what we do or how we do it it is a foregone conclusion moderns will be hot someday.  The only question is will they become a mass market or forever remain a backwater.  It would be far better for the hobby in the long term if they become as real market. 

...u r going to need a tv shopping network to accomplish that....

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 2:13 PM, zadok said:

...u r going to need a tv shopping network to accomplish that....

I don't think so.  

Every year I see more and more participants in the modern circulating coin hobby.  I believe it started snowballing a couple years back and demand is already outstripping supply which is why nice gemmy '82-P quarters routinely sell for 15x Greysheet on eBay.   I believe many other moderns are coming under supply stresses as well.   Except for the most common circulating moderns there is simply too little supply for a mass market.  

[Sandon]

    I've been following this topic and its predecessors but have refrained from participating until now.

    To the extent that the OP's position is that most modern (however defined) issues mass produced for circulation are scarce in what we would now call "gem" to "superb gem" uncirculated grades, I agree. However, it is unreasonable to expect that such coins would exist in any quantity in such grades.  Most such coins probably graded no higher than MS 64 by current standards when removed from mint bags due to the abrasion that occurs throughout the minting and distribution processes and a large portion of them having been struck from worn dies to begin with.  Most examples in mint sets have the same characteristics and sometimes scrapes from packaging equipment to boot. The focus of some collectors on "high grade" coins among circulating issues is, in my opinion, misguided. If you collect such coins, you must expect them to have some number of abrasions, striking weakness, and the like. I doubt that these coins will ever be scarce in the usual uncirculated grades.

    Although all coins gain some collector value when they become old enough and are "out of circulation", I don't think that any modern issues will be worth much in our lifetimes in circulated grades or for, that matter, some time thereafter.  Unlike previous eras where coins were heavily used in everyday transactions and wore down to low grades within a few decades, many people today seem to dump their daily change into containers, let it accumulate for years if not decades, and finally take it to a bank or a "Coinstar" machine from which it may finally reenter circulation, however briefly.  Many coins 40 or more years old would still grade AU, and I rarely see a coin that would grade below VF in detail.

  As a young collector in the 1970s and 80s, I noticed that certain recent coins had what I thought were "low" mintages (below 200 million) and made it a point to save every example I found. This included 1968-D and 1971 nickels, 1969 dimes, and 1968-D, 69, 69-D, 70, and 71 quarters.  I also saved every "S" mint coin I found regardless of mintage, every "wheat" cent, and every nickel dated before 1960. Additionally, I saved and continue to save every decent looking uncirculated coin handed to me out of new rolls.  The result is that I have tubes and bags of such coins in a closet that still have insufficient market value to even think about selling.  I doubt that I'm the only one.

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 3:16 PM, Sandon said:

    I've been following this topic and its predecessors but have refrained from participating until now.

    To the extent that the OP's position is that most modern (however defined) issues mass produced for circulation are scarce in what we would now call "gem" to "superb gem" uncirculated grades, I agree. However, it is unreasonable to expect that such coins would exist in any quantity in such grades.  Most such coins probably graded no higher than MS 64 by current standards when removed from mint bags due to the abrasion that occurs throughout the minting and distribution processes and a large portion of them having been struck from worn dies to begin with.  Most examples in mint sets have the same characteristics and sometimes scrapes from packaging equipment to boot. The focus of some collectors on "high grade" coins among circulating issues is, in my opinion, misguided. If you collect such coins, you must expect them to have some number of abrasions, striking weakness, and the like. I doubt that these coins will ever be scarce in the usual uncirculated grades.

    Although all coins gain some collector value when they become old enough and are "out of circulation", I don't think that any modern issues will be worth much in our lifetimes in circulated grades or for, that matter, some time thereafter.  Unlike previous eras where coins were heavily used in everyday transactions and wore down to low grades within a few decades, many people today seem to dump their daily change into containers, let it accumulate for years if not decades, and finally take it to a bank or a "Coinstar" machine from which it may finally reenter circulation, however briefly.  Many coins 40 or more years old would still grade AU, and I rarely see a coin that would grade below VF in detail.

  As a young collector in the 1970s and 80s, I noticed that certain recent coins had what I thought were "low" mintages (below 200 million) and made it a point to save every example I found. This included 1968-D and 1971 nickels, 1969 dimes, and 1968-D, 69, 69-D, 70, and 71 quarters.  I also saved every "S" mint coin I found regardless of mintage, every "wheat" cent, and every nickel dated before 1960. Additionally, I saved and continue to save every decent looking uncirculated coin handed to me out of new rolls.  The result is that I have tubes and bags of such coins in a closet that still have insufficient market value to even think about selling.  I doubt that I'm the only one.

You are NOT the only one.

[cladking]

On 4/12/2024 at 3:16 PM, Sandon said:

    To the extent that the OP's position is that most modern (however defined) issues mass produced for circulation are scarce in what we would now call "gem" to "superb gem" uncirculated grades, I agree. However, it is unreasonable to expect that such coins would exist in any quantity in such grades.  Most such coins probably graded no higher than MS 64 by current standards when removed from mint bags due to the abrasion that occurs throughout the minting and distribution processes and a large portion of them having been struck from worn dies to begin with.  Most examples in mint sets have the same characteristics and sometimes scrapes from packaging equipment to boot. The focus of some collectors on "high grade" coins among circulating issues is, in my opinion, misguided. If you collect such coins, you must expect them to have some number of abrasions, striking weakness, and the like. I doubt that these coins will ever be scarce in the usual uncirculated grades.

It's not just Gems that are lacking; it any attractive moderns in any grade at all.  Circulating coinage is most culls of very poorly made coins AND they are worn out.  As many as tow old dimes out of three no longer exist at all and what left is ugly.  The same applies to most coins in most of the very few original rolls that were saved.  This leaves only mint sets to find attractive coins but most of the mint sets are gone now and the ones that survive are tarnished.  Even when these sets were plentiful and pristine only as few as one half of one percent were attractive.  Only about 10% of '69 quarters were attractive.  

Moderns have been produced to extremely low standards.  

Most people would be amazed to know how few of most moderns survive.  It's not just Gems and nice attractive coins that don't exist in sufficient numbers but MS-60 and VF's.   Try to find a nice attractive 1968 dime in any condition at all.  Try to find any 1969 dime and you might be in for a surprise.  Not only did the Gems not survive but not many of any survived.  Just because there are some 40,000,000 in circulation will not make it so easy to find one of these low grade culls.   

Most attractive clads grade MS-63 through MS-68.   Most are at least  MS-64 and most MS-65 and better are well made by good dies but this doesn't apply to all dates.  It's not in the least unusual for some dates in MS-65 to be very poorly made.   

On 4/12/2024 at 3:16 PM, Sandon said:

    Although all coins gain some collector value when they become old enough and are "out of circulation", I don't think that any modern issues will be worth much in our lifetimes in circulated grades or for, that matter, some time thereafter.  Unlike previous eras where coins were heavily used in everyday transactions and wore down to low grades within a few decades, many people today seem to dump their daily change into containers, let it accumulate for years if not decades, and finally take it to a bank or a "Coinstar" machine from which it may finally reenter circulation, however briefly.  Many coins 40 or more years old would still grade AU, and I rarely see a coin that would grade below VF in detail.

Old clad is virtually never high grade.   Finding any pre-'76 clad in nice attractive VF or better is almost impossible.  Their grades form a bell curve centered at VG+/ F- that is very narrow because the mint and FED rotate their stocks of coins.  The vast majority of these are just covered with little scratches.  More than 40% are culls because of corrosion or  gouges.  A VF that isn't scratched and gouged is scarce enough that for some dates they are essentially non-existent.  What's 1% or 10% of a coin you can't find at all.

On 4/12/2024 at 3:16 PM, Sandon said:

  As a young collector in the 1970s and 80s, I noticed that certain recent coins had what I thought were "low" mintages (below 200 million) and made it a point to save every example I found. This included 1968-D and 1971 nickels, 1969 dimes, and 1968-D, 69, 69-D, 70, and 71 quarters.  I also saved every "S" mint coin I found regardless of mintage, every "wheat" cent, and every nickel dated before 1960. Additionally, I saved and continue to save every decent looking uncirculated coin handed to me out of new rolls.  The result is that I have tubes and bags of such coins in a closet that still have insufficient market value to even think about selling.  I doubt that I'm the only one.

Good for you.  You might be glad you did this.