CACG has arrived. Loudly knocking. Will NGC and PCGS answer the door? Do you think NGC and PCGS will counter CACG and their "premium certification" services with their own new services or certifications? 2 2

[Jason Abshier]

On 4/4/2024 at 10:07 PM, Coinbuf said:

You do realize that CAC doesn't pick and choose what gets sent to them

I realize where you’re coming from bud you do have a point ….I’m not in no way against CAC at all it’s the people that send coins to them to be beaned like a common date Walker in MS64 with CAC bean with asking price $130 , when you can get straight graded Non-beaned MS65 $135 … just an example … Ive seen it in the past … although CAC did their job beaning the coin yeah … but , to create a market in between Two bigger tier graders who been around for long time by slapping beans on coin and expecting an “in between the market  mark up the price a little hype” that just doesn’t sit with me right …. Although CAC does do a good job on their coins why would dealers or people send in low quality coins to flood market with CAC beans? … I can see more sought after higher end coins being CAC sticker help boost a sale pitch for that coin …

CCAG will take off eventually they had loyal cult followers who loved the BEANS ! I’m sure they’ll fully support CACG and help create market , but will they be as big as PCGS ? NGC ? It’s too early to say at the moment 

 

[Jason Abshier]

On 4/4/2024 at 9:35 PM, zadok said:

...its already happening...the cac beans r not based on high grades nor rare coins, same criteria applies to all coins, all grades common, scarce or rare....

I know that … they are paid to tell someone if their coin is PQ or within the grade of satisfaction that John Albanese and graders who work for him would like if they had to buy the coins themselves then putting a sticker on it to stands out from all rest of coins that are not beaned … it help create a secondary market within market …. They could of set the bar little more higher get stricter with allowance what being sent to them , just like they didn’t accept modern coinage for CAC evaluation … Right now they are basically running parallel with two big dog grading companies who been around for awhile trying to get a little chip in market …. I get it , we’ll see how they do in near future it’s too early to say how they will fare out 

Edited April 5 by Jason Abshier

[zadok]

On 4/4/2024 at 11:37 PM, Jason Abshier said:

I know that … they are paid to tell someone if their coin is PQ or within the grade of satisfaction that John Albanese and graders who work for him would like if they had to buy the coins themselves then putting a sticker on it to stands out from all rest of coins that are not beaned … it help create a secondary market within market …. They could of set the bar little more higher get stricter with allowance what being sent to them , just like they didn’t accept modern coinage for CAC evaluation … Right now they are basically running parallel with two big dog grading companies who been around for awhile trying to get a little chip in market …. I get it , we’ll see how they do in near future it’s too early to say how they will fare out 

...john's goals r a bit more indepth that just trying to get a part of the market, i believe he is changing the market...the "two top dogs" r playing catch up...the auction results on "beaned" coins speaks loud n clear...also the number of submissions to cacg willing to accept downgrades on crossovers is very telling....

[Jason Abshier]

On 4/5/2024 at 8:42 AM, zadok said:

i believe he is changing the market...the "two top dogs" r playing catch up

Maybe so … But if it wasn’t for the two top dogs , CAC wouldn’t have existed . Why doesn’t he accept ANACS coins ? Everyone blows them off , I was once at coin show a buyer asked dealer why he marked his ANACS coin up so high close to PCGS coin … dealer told him the coin is PQ regardless what holder it was in !!! It was a nice coin , but the buyer still demanded price should be dropped simply because it’s in ANACS holder … common kool-aid drinker’s remarks I’ve heard over the years … PCGS / NGC / CACG/CAC are all market grading for their financial gains in the market whatever float someone’s boat so be it 

[zadok]

On 4/5/2024 at 9:05 AM, Jason Abshier said:

Maybe so … But if it wasn’t for the two top dogs , CAC wouldn’t have existed . Why doesn’t he accept ANACS coins ? Everyone blows them off , I was once at coin show a buyer asked dealer why he marked his ANACS coin up so high close to PCGS coin … dealer told him the coin is PQ regardless what holder it was in !!! It was a nice coin , but the buyer still demanded price should be dropped simply because it’s in ANACS holder … common kool-aid drinker’s remarks I’ve heard over the years … PCGS / NGC / CACG/CAC are all market grading for their financial gains in the market whatever float someone’s boat so be it 

...everyone sees this issue thru their own lens...i just go by what i see in the fundamentals, what my own personal experiences show me n from what some of the founders of all 4 of those organizations have related to me...other persons experiences often have personal biases involved...time will tell all....

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  There's that old familiar refrain... "... time will tell..."  and "... all in time..."  I'm beginning to think this guy knows something we don't...

Q.A.:  Anything's possible, but we gotta get back to work.

🐓 : Work?  What's with the four-letter words... Doing what?? 

Q.A.:  Doing what we do best, Ricky.  Broadening the body of knowledge.

🐓 :  "Peki. Peki." (Alright. Alright, in Turkiye) "Map vini!" (I'm coming!) pronounced MOP vin-NY, in Karibbean Krayol).

Re CACG... I think it may be too early yet to move beyond conjecture.

@MarkFeld :  If memory serves, you had conceded having a longstanding friendship with J.A.  If you are within the sound of my voice, I believe your intimate insider knowledge of the subject matter under discussion would be most welcomed and well received on this Forum.

[Posted at the discretion of Moderation.]

 

[zadok]

...we definitely need a broader variety of emojis on this forum....

[Henri Charriere]

On 4/8/2024 at 9:57 AM, zadok said:

...we definitely need a broader variety of emojis on this forum..

Your complaint will be reviewed when it is received.

At first blush, it appears you have made your feelings known on a number of occasions.

However, one cannot help but notice of the five emojis presently provided -- with the exception of two you used in the fall of 1937,.you seem to be partial to the one expressing sadness.

I was able to conjure 🐓  by simply typing in the word, Rooster.  You may wish to try the same.

Edited April 9 by Henri Charriere
Dupicate

[GoldFinger1969]

One thing I saw posted and I agree 100%:  if you complain about "gradeflation" you can't be upset with CAC...and now I would add CACG. 

Edited April 9 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 4/8/2024 at 10:00 PM, Henri Charriere said:

 

Your complaint will be reviewed when it is received.

At first blush, it appears you have made your feelings known on a number of occasions.

However, one cannot help but notice of the five emojis presently provided -- with the exception of two you used in the fall of 1937,.you seem to be partial to the one expressing sadness.

I was able to conjure 🐓  by simply typing in the word, Rooster.  You may wish to try the same.

...ill pass, there is already way too much gallus gallus domesticus poop on the forum now...n my emojis r all u for u n ur condition...fyi ngc declined to add my requests, oh well maybe next time....

[rrantique]

On 4/9/2024 at 7:02 PM, Henri Charriere said:

@zadok :  My primitive dumbphone, the oldest analog/android cell in U.S. service, features exactly 100 emojis grouped under eight separate categories: Agreement, ROFLOL, Mischief, Yay!, Still OK, Hmmm, What the What and Nope. They do not include the following which can be conjured up by typing a word. Examples follow.

🤢 = vomit

🤔  = think

😉  = wink

❤️  = love

🐓   = rooster

Granted, smartphones among others, feature additional emojis. As a "collector" endowed with a limitless amount of time on your hands, you should be able to find that which expresses your personality to a T.

If all fails, you may consider reaching out to The King of Emojis: Alex from Anchorage, better known as, @Alex from PA. He frequents other forums, when much to his chagrin, I neutered him with kindness.   🤣

To the OP:  My sincere apologies for posting this  symposium.

 

 

[VKurtB]

On 4/9/2024 at 7:34 PM, rrantique said:

 

“When ah sez whoa, ah mean WHOA!”

[Cat Bath]

JA likes shiny coins....Big flipping deal.

I prefer my Saints not look like they spent all day in a McDonald's drive-through lane. 

[CIII]

Ha!  What do coins look like after being in a Wendy's drive-thru?

[Cat Bath]

On 4/24/2024 at 4:10 PM, CIII said:

Ha!  What do coins look like after being in a Wendy's drive-thru?

Depends on what some popular insufficiently_thoughtful_person says they look like.

Independent thought is not a thing nowadays.

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/24/2024 at 3:43 PM, Cat Bath said:

JA likes shiny coins....Big flipping deal.  I prefer my Saints not look like they spent all day in a McDonald's drive-through lane. 

The premiums to gold content for Saints in 1989 and the late-1990's were really high.  Market grading for them is one reason why the CAC sticker rate is so low.  

[World Colonial]

On 12/18/2023 at 12:33 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Do you think that the volume of non-modern coinage submitted yearly has increased in recent years vs. 10 or 20 or 30 years ago ?  You would think that most of the coins have already been submitted, right ?  Once the TPGs were established in 1986-87, I would think the initial rush was the highpoint.

This has been discussed before.

No, I don't think the majority of "grade worthy" coins have been submitted, even from those that are financially worth submitting.  It varies by series and coin since some coins and series are far more likely to be submitted due to the probability of fakes and buyer preference.

It's a higher proportion for what you buy, but you don't buy the coins even most buyers spending around the same amount do.  Definitely higher for pre-1933 US gold, Morgan dollars, and classic commemoratives.  Still, there may be more 1881-S Morgan dollars out of a holder than in one, just not in the highest grades.

Look at the TPG counts and estimates in Coin Facts. You can also compare the outdated Coin Facts commentary to the estimates or itemized census.  Right on the same page, it's not unusual to see where (apparently) "new" coins previously not known were "discovered".

Compare it to other presumably expected to be at least somewhat scarce coinage from outside the US with TPG counts in higher grades which exceeds what most expect.  As one example, I own a 1771 Peru 2R NGC MS-62.  Mintage is about 67K with a value around $2K.  So, it's not real valuable but high enough where it makes sense to grade it.

NGC and PCGS list 7 MS and 2 AU-58.  I've seen five of the MS (including mine) and one of the AU-58.  It's not a hoard coin either.  It's an outlier for the series, but if this many exist of this coin, it's entirely believable that the potential number for the vast majority of US coins is also (noticeably) higher than commonly known now, especially where the counts are low in similar quality.  Most collectors seem to assume the opposite, like the TPG pops more often overstate the scarcity due to resubmissions.  They believe this because of their own unrepresentative experience, anecdotes from others, and potentially because they want to believe it.

Compared to the 1771 Peru 2R, only a very low proportion of US coins should be scarcer, approach it in scarcity, or have similar survival rates in similar quality.  It's only not likely or a lot less likely where this type of non-US coin is from a hoard.

[numisport]

On 3/28/2024 at 2:48 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Any new thoughts on CACG grading ? 

Here it is now April 27th and I have my first CACG slab. Most of my slabbed coins have CAC stickers so I thought I would pick up a nice original Trade Dollar in AU 55. Coin stands on its own merits with nice original skin and only slight circulation rub. Optical grade slab is nice looking but although roughly the same size as PCGS slabs, its really thick and wont fit in a PCGS box. 

Check out this comparison to other slabs. CACG slab is roughly same size as PCGS slab but much thicker while roughly same thickness as NGC slab but not the same size. Of course ANACS is just different.

Edited Saturday at 04:24 PM by numisport
added image

[Henri Charriere]

 There is only one reason why ALL slabs cannot be housed in one universal box.  And I find that reason to be anti-social, anti-ethical, illogical and personally repugnant. As a matter of fact, I am going to stick my neck out and show my true colors. What some term competition goes way beyond that when there is no one anyone can appeal to, to review your case, and walk away with the satisfaction that your grievance was pored over by experienced professionals who rendered a rational decision in good faith -- which is why, for example, Federal judges are lifetime appointees.  I have seen too many cases where the aggrieved was forced to submit to the wills of others who function in complete anonymity and have their way for no other reason than because they can.  There is something rotten in the state of Denmark and a good part of the problem is a reluctance of collectors (or retirees, in good standing) to raise the hue and cry.  I believe I have said it before and I WILL SAY IT AGAIN.  MONEY IS NOT EVERYTHING AND IT IS NOT MONEY BUT THE LOVE OF MONEY THAT IS THE ROOT OF ALL PEOPLE!  Should I manage to come into a sizeable bit of money, theoretically possible but highly implausible, I will not be accepting congratulations.... only condolences. I will dedicate every fiber of my being to making the crooked paths straight for all who have been wronged -- a subject which has been assiduously avoided by a sizable number of people who, for for various reasons, have been cowed into silence.

(Posted at the discretion of Moderation and Top Management which walks softly but carries a Big Stick.)

Knock!  Knock!

Go see who it is, Ricky!

🐓:  Your wish is my command, sire!... 

Q.A.:  What's that?

🐓 :  A cup of coffee and a cruller... from Kurt... with a message...

Q.A.:  What's is say?

🐓 :  Yo, take a chill pill!  😎 

 

 

  

Edited Saturday at 10:57 PM by Henri Charriere
Routine die polishing: addition of exchange.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:20 AM, World Colonial said:

No, I don't think the majority of "grade worthy" coins have been submitted, even from those that are financially worth submitting.  It varies by series and coin since some coins and series are far more likely to be submitted due to the probability of fakes and buyer preference.

I don't doubt that there is still (lots of) stuff out there that is grade-worthy and worth nice $$$....VKurt has intimated as much with all his auctions finds....Sandon and Zadok, too....but could top-pop, census-altering volumes STILL be out there...preserved pristinely....in high-grade and/or mint condition....by average folks...who know NOTHING about coins and/or PRESERVING coins... .the SAME people who think wiping a coin with a towel keeps it CLEAN and in GOOD condition ???!!! 

I could see top-half or top-quarter condition hoards coming out....but top-pop stuff ?  

On 4/27/2024 at 8:20 AM, World Colonial said:

It's a higher proportion for what you buy, but you don't buy the coins even most buyers spending around the same amount do.  Definitely higher for pre-1933 US gold, Morgan dollars, and classic commemoratives.  Still, there may be more 1881-S Morgan dollars out of a holder than in one, just not in the highest grades.

That I definitely agree with as people may have specific MCMVII HR's inherited from parents who had no other interest in coins (remember the response of an SSCA buyer to QDB's invitation to get more coins), more general Saints (held as a form of gold if not for numismatic purposes), and ditto Morgans and other gold/silver coins serving a dual bullion-numismatic purpose (mostly bullion if the holders are older).

On 4/27/2024 at 8:20 AM, World Colonial said:

Look at the TPG counts and estimates in Coin Facts. You can also compare the outdated Coin Facts commentary to the estimates or itemized census.  Right on the same page, it's not unusual to see where (apparently) "new" coins previously not known were "discovered".

But even for the stuff that I track (see above)....hasn't the RATE OF INCREASE slowed ? 

Yes, there are new submittances...new hoards....new SDB finds...new oveseas finds (i.e., Fairmont)....but it can't approximate what came out when the TPGs first came out during the heavy period of 1986-2006, the first 20 years, can it ?  In 2 years, it'll be another 20 years (40 years total since the TPGs came out) and I can't see the split for most coins being greater than 70% the first 20 years....30% the last 20 years...if not closer to 80/20 or even 90/10.

 

Edited Sunday at 12:07 AM by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't doubt that there is still (lots of) stuff out there that is grade-worthy and worth nice $$$....VKurt has intimated as much with all his auctions finds....Sandon and Zadok, too....but could top-pop, census-altering volumes STILL be out there...preserved pristinely....in high-grade and/or mint condition....by average folks...who know NOTHING about coins and/or PRESERVING coins... .the SAME people who think wiping a coin with a towel keeps it CLEAN and in GOOD condition ???!!! 

I could see top-half or top-quarter condition hoards coming out....but top-pop stuff ?  

That I definitely agree with as people may have specific MCMVII HR's inherited from parents who had no other interest in coins (remember the response of an SSCA buyer to QDB's invitation to get more coins), more general Saints (held as a form of gold if not for numismatic purposes), and ditto Morgans and other gold/silver coins serving a dual bullion-numismatic purpose (mostly bullion if the holders are older).

But even for the stuff that I track (see above)....hasn't the RATE OF INCREASE slowed ? 

Yes, there are new submittances...new hoards....new SDB finds...new oveseas finds (i.e., Fairmont)....but it can't approximate what came out when the TPGs first came out during the heavy period of 1986-2006, the first 20 years, can it ?  In 2 years, it'll be another 20 years (40 years total since the TPGs came out) and I can't see the split for most coins being greater than 70% the first 20 years....30% the last 20 years...if not closer to 80/20 or even 90/10.

 

...respectfully disagree...i doubt it has exceeded 40% possibly 50% but doubtful...not all high end coins r destined to be graded nor do their owners so desire...in the not too far distant past i privately purchased a grouping of 5 US coins over 150 years since mintage that would grade in the ms65-67 range, same date, mint, denomination...this coin is considered one of the key dates for its respective series n is still currently reflected in the "red book" with a dash in the mint state column n none have been certified by any of the tpgs in mint state, i "placed" 4 of the 5 in private collector hands where they remain n to date none have been certified nor do i expect them to be at anytime in the foreseeable future...having the coins made public does not enhance their relative value...n the collecting community need not be privilege to the particulars of this information, its private...

[World Colonial]

On 4/27/2024 at 8:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't doubt that there is still (lots of) stuff out there that is grade-worthy and worth nice $$$....VKurt has intimated as much with all his auctions finds....Sandon and Zadok, too....but could top-pop, census-altering volumes STILL be out there...preserved pristinely....in high-grade and/or mint condition....by average folks...who know NOTHING about coins and/or PRESERVING coins... .the SAME people who think wiping a coin with a towel keeps it CLEAN and in GOOD condition ???!!! 

I could see top-half or top-quarter condition hoards coming out....but top-pop stuff ?  

I wasn't specifically referring to condition census coins.  It's not as relevant as you consistently claim to very many collectors.  It's a number on a holder label to almost everyone because they aren't ever going to buy it, and it does not even have (hardly) any relevance to what they do buy.

On 4/27/2024 at 8:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

But even for the stuff that I track (see above)....hasn't the RATE OF INCREASE slowed ? 

Yes, there are new submittances...new hoards....new SDB finds...new oveseas finds (i.e., Fairmont)....but it can't approximate what came out when the TPGs first came out during the heavy period of 1986-2006, the first 20 years, can it ?  In 2 years, it'll be another 20 years (40 years total since the TPGs came out) and I can't see the split for most coins being greater than 70% the first 20 years....30% the last 20 years...if not closer to 80/20 or even 90/10.

 

Look at the comparison I made in my last post.  Nine 1771 Peru 2R AU-58+ already graded with likely no duplicates. Given the preference among these collectors for TPG (virtually non-existent outside the US), potentially more out of a holder than in one.

The number surviving for a coin like this one is presumably effectively a random event.  But still, ask yourself, how likely is it that so many US coins with current TPG counts lower or near it even with noticeably higher mintages are (almost) as scarce or scarcer than this coin in this quality or otherwise?

The most likely reason most are graded is TPG preference and mostly due to the higher price.  

Previously, I mentioned a Coin Week Article by Jeff Garrett claiming what you do.  Harvey Stack posted a comment directly contradicting him.  I agree with Harvey Stack because I think he was in a much better position to know.  One admittedly anecdotal example is the Chapman collection of gold dollars profiled in Coin Week which actually did include numerous "top pops", up to MS-68.

Previously Unknown Chapman Collection of $1 Gold Now Revealed (coinweek.com)

Remember, post-1776 US metropolitan areas weren't an economic backwater, not like 1770's Lima, Peru.

Edited Sunday at 12:23 PM by World Colonial

[Henri Charriere]

A clearly characteristic example of the classic well-documented cohort: nattering nabobs of negativism with an ample helping of defensiveness that adds nothing to the body of knowledge. To quote the late, great sportscaster:  "Let's go to the videotape."

On 4/27/2024 at 11:22 PM, zadok said:

!.

1. ...i doubt it has exceeded 40% possibly 50% but doubtful.

2...not all high end coins r destined to be graded nor do their owners so desire...

3...n the not too far distant past i privately purchased a grouping of 5 US coins over 150 years since mintage that would grade in the ms65-67 range, same date, mint, denomination.

4.....this coin is considered one of the key dates for its respective series n is still currently reflected in the "red book" with a dash in the mint state column n none have been certified by any of the tpgs in mint state,

5....Si "placed" 4 of the 5 in private collector hands where they remain n to

6...date none have been certified nor do i expect them to be at anytime in the foreseeable future

7....having the coins made public does not enhance their relative value.

8...n the collecting community need not be privilege to the particulars of this information, its private...

1.  If one were to declare the more precise figure is 37%, who would challenge it?  If anything, no one could because the figure is transitory and in a perpetual state of Flux -- which forever, thereafter remains because no one is equipped with the irrefutable artillery: the cold hard facts.

2.  A neither-here, neither there, self-serving, autobiographical statement if ever there was one.  The latter part of this statement is impossible to prove or disprove and in the highly unlikely event in can, what statistical data or marketing data would the author rely on or care to cite to support this incredible, fantastical prognostication?

3.  ABSOLUTE CONJECTURE in its near-purist form:  99.44%

4.  SELF-SERVING ASSERTION ANY SELF-APPOINTED KING CAN MAKE TO HIS INTRINSICALLY UNWASHED UNINFORMED SUBJECTS.

5.  "placed"?  Not lent per legal codicil.  Disavows "constructive possession."  Left?  Purposely left vague. Intrepretation: that is for me and the recipient(s) to know; and for you or the --- to find out.

6. A curious comment:  "nor do I expect them to be..."  Wishy-washy terminological inexactitudes.  Do you not know the state of your own mind or those mythical creatures you entrusted your treasures to and periodically entertain us with?

7.  Inherently rude but a polite Board Guideline- approved way of saying:  "Have a Nice Day."

UPSHOT:  A SIZEABLE BANDWIDTH OF MEASURED BABBLING THAT ADDS NOTHING AS A "REPLY TO THE TOPIC."

🐓:  I concur. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/27/2024 at 11:22 PM, zadok said:

...respectfully disagree...i doubt it has exceeded 40% possibly 50% but doubtful...

Worth gettiing graded, or coins that are going to be left raw since they are not in a high-enough condition to merit certification ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/28/2024 at 8:14 AM, World Colonial said:

I wasn't specifically referring to condition census coins.  It's not as relevant as you consistently claim to very many collectors.  It's a number on a holder label to almost everyone because they aren't ever going to buy it, and it does not even have (hardly) any relevance to what they do buy.

Well, there's certainly value to lower-rated raw coins....but these won't really change the top pop census or the economics of a particular coin type or year/mintmark.  That was my point.

On 4/28/2024 at 8:14 AM, World Colonial said:

Look at the comparison I made in my last post.  Nine 1771 Peru 2R AU-58+ already graded with likely no duplicates. Given the preference among these collectors for TPG (virtually non-existent outside the US), potentially more out of a holder than in one.

For this particular foreign coin, yeah, I see what you are saying.  But for the coins an American kid or adult is likely to collect -- Saints, Morgans, Franklins, SLQ, Walkers, Lincoln Cents, etc. -- have we REALLY just scratched the surface of what is out there in the aggregate ?  And what about in the top condition ?

Even this Fairmont Hoard...if it's an amalgamation of various finds and put together as one big one for marketing purposes -- that would kind of prove my point.  If what you guys are saying is true -- and I admit, you COULD be right and you have more experience here than me -- but if right, you are saying lots of Americans have coins worth lots of $$$ and in volumes that can greatly expand the existing population census in the next decade or two.  So what's taking them so long to bring it to market or their heirs or their estates ?  I guess that's what we are all waiting on, right ?

I guess if it IS out there...we should see it in the next 10-20 years.  People like my relatives who are passing on are now in their 80's and 90's...if we don't see it when these people die, then I would think it does NOT exist in any size.  JMHO.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/28/2024 at 8:14 AM, World Colonial said:

Previously, I mentioned a Coin Week Article by Jeff Garrett claiming what you do.  Harvey Stack posted a comment directly contradicting him.  I agree with Harvey Stack because I think he was in a much better position to know.  One admittedly anecdotal example is the Chapman collection of gold dollars profiled in Coin Week which actually did include numerous "top pops", up to MS-68.  Previously Unknown Chapman Collection of $1 Gold Now Revealed (coinweek.com)  Remember, post-1776 US metropolitan areas weren't an economic backwater, not like 1770's Lima, Peru.

Very interesting, thanks for the heads-up, WC. 

But I think this is the proverbial outlier, no ?  I mean...we're talking here someone who worked with famous numismatists who lived over a century ago....who saved GOLD coins....coins in PRISTINE condition....and worth Big $$$.

I don't think there are many entire collections like this just sitting in a vault, a home, or an attic. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Those Chapman coins were kept in the ORIGINAL envelopes -- and didn't mar the surfaces ? 

Also...the famly that owned them was wealthy enough NOT to have to sell them -- and yet they thought they were worth "only" $50,000 ?  Even in the age of the internet, they were off by a factor of 100 on the FMV ? 

JA said you see thise once in a Blue Moon....I think this shows that while there might be more out there (there certainly are)...there aren't DOZENS or HUNDREDS of sets like this or even approximating this set. 

A few raw coins here or there at best, IMO.

[World Colonial]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, there's certainly value to lower-rated raw coins....but these won't really change the top pop census or the economics of a particular coin type or year/mintmark.  That was my point.

I'm not referring to average or lower circulated coinage.  I'm referring to "high" quality whether the condition census grade or somewhat below it, regardless of what the TPG label is for the "top pop".  That was my point in using my 1771 Peru 2R as a basis of comparison. 

It doesn't take even as single new "top pop" to noticeably negatively impact the price level, given the actual demand for these labels (not coins).  A proportionately large increase several points below the condition census grade is usually enough to suffice.

[World Colonial]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

For this particular foreign coin, yeah, I see what you are saying.  But for the coins an American kid or adult is likely to collect -- Saints, Morgans, Franklins, SLQ, Walkers, Lincoln Cents, etc. -- have we REALLY just scratched the surface of what is out there in the aggregate ?  And what about in the top condition ?

Not thinking in terms of this coinage because of those you listed, only a few Saints are actually scarce or rare.   The rest of it is really common, except under the US financially motivated contrivance of TPG labels which most collectors don't actually care about in the context of US condition census coins.

The Morgan dollar isn't representative either because of the outsized financially motivated buying.  I'd estimate most of the most common dates even in UNC or "BU" potentially still aren't graded.  For the key and semi-key dates, probably have been but I could still be wrong about that.

For the other series you listed, I absolutely expect that most of the better coins have not been graded, potentially up to condition census grades.  Most of the TPG counts in "high" quality (up to better MS) aren't low even now, but you need to remember that only the earlier WLH and Lincoln cent dates preceded album collecting and not by that long.  It's not like most of this coinage is really worth that much.  It's also not realistic to expect most who own it to be thinking in your context.  

[World Colonial]

On 4/28/2024 at 9:44 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Even this Fairmont Hoard...if it's an amalgamation of various finds and put together as one big one for marketing purposes -- that would kind of prove my point.  If what you guys are saying is true -- and I admit, you COULD be right and you have more experience here than me -- but if right, you are saying lots of Americans have coins worth lots of $$$ and in volumes that can greatly expand the existing population census in the next decade or two.  So what's taking them so long to bring it to market or their heirs or their estates ?  I guess that's what we are all waiting on, right ?

I guess if it IS out there...we should see it in the next 10-20 years.  People like my relatives who are passing on are now in their 80's and 90's...if we don't see it when these people die, then I would think it does NOT exist in any size.  JMHO.

I previously posted a list of about a dozen factors which appear to correlate to survivability.  That's what leads me to my conclusions.

Here is another example.  My avatar coin is an 1813 Mexico PCGS MS-66 1/4R.  Last I checked, 10 in 66, 19 in 65, and 50 total with 45 in an MS grade.  Probably zero duplicates due to the price and frequency of sale.  Mintage unknown but probably several million.  Actual number is potentially several hundred in an MS grade.  This coin should easily be scarcer than the (vast) majority of US coins even of comparable age with a roughly comparable mintage.

Is this a hoard coin?  Maybe, but I've never heard it.  I infer or know of numerous non-US hoards from the TPG data.  Where it isn't a hoard, it should be evident that in at least 9 of 10 instances, the US coin will be (noticeably) more common in comparable quality with a (somewhat) comparable mintage.

To your last comment, I think zadok's point is that we won't necessarily see it.  Generational money doesn't necessarily sell because they don't need the money, as I infer you are in a position to know.  There were also a sufficient number of affluent Americans in the past (probably concentrated in the NE) who could have saved or bought this coinage and still have it.  Post-colonial America wasn't poor by contemporary standards.

That's my inference anyway.

Edited Sunday at 03:37 PM by World Colonial