CACG has arrived. Loudly knocking. Will NGC and PCGS answer the door? Do you think NGC and PCGS will counter CACG and their "premium certification" services with their own new services or certifications? 2 2

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/13/2024 at 2:21 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Silver cyanide gas.  Not to worry.  I just made that up.  On the other hand, if anything untoward were to happen to the '33 D.E., someone would have to answer to that. And, of course, that would have to go by extension to any of the other hundreds of trophy coins.

This economics major remembers something from junior and senior high school about some metals and elements being more reactive than others.

Any chemistry or physics major here ?  Gold...silver....copper...aluminum....steel....brass....other materials coins are made out of....which react the least and the most ?

Edited January 13 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 1/13/2024 at 6:57 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

This economics major remembers something from junior and senior high school about some metals and elements being more reactive than others.

Any chemistry or physics major here ?  Gold...silver....copper...aluminum....steel....brass....other materials coins are made out of....which react the least and the most ?

...operative words..."coins are made of"...basics; durability/survivability, cost, intrinsic value...u r prob remembering other metal families that r highly reactive...sodium, potassium e.g....coins made out of sodium u need spend ur money fast n not on a rainy day....

[GoldFinger1969]

I think I used my sodium coins with my meatloaf when the salt shaker ran dry ! 

[Henri Charriere]

🐓 :  Hey Q!  You're not really concerned about any of this preservation stuff are you?

Q.A.:  Not at all. None of this will have any effect on thirty-seven per cent of the seasoned veterans reading this column.

🐓 :  Rumor has it JA's sarcophagi, in time, will be featuring cutting edge technology.  Holders will be hermetically-sealed.  If any problems develop, that'll be the province of today's Newbies.  You'd be surprised at how clever some of these whippersnappers can be. I am afraid I cannot be more forthcoming.  That's one of the seven questions nobody can seem to get a straight answer to.      

[VKurtB]

On 1/14/2024 at 10:53 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think I used my sodium coins with my meatloaf when the salt shaker ran dry ! 

Ever see a hunk of sodium metal dumped into water? 

[zadok]

On 1/17/2024 at 12:59 PM, VKurtB said:

Ever see a hunk of sodium metal dumped into water? 

...yep....

[gmarguli]

On 12/17/2023 at 3:37 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

Beyond PCGS Gold Shield beyond CAC beans beyond NGC MAC or PCGS MAC certified coins are the new CACG certified coins that are bringing big premiums due to the company's reputation for very accurately grading coins.

I'm looking for these big premiums and can't seem to find them. Most of the stuff for sale in their slabs is garbage coins. Lots of moderns and stuff that didn't need to be slabbed in the first place like common MS63 Morgans and MS64 Mercury dimes. Moderns seem to be selling at a discount. Overpriced common stuff seems to not be selling. 

US Coins for sale on eBay right now:

• NGC: 61,000+
• PCGS: 54,000+
• ANACS: 20,000+
• ICG: 8,700+
• CACG - 373 
• SEGS: 160
• ICCS (Canadian TPG): 128
• Accugrade: 29

 

[Coinbuf]

On 1/17/2024 at 2:33 PM, gmarguli said:

I'm looking for these big premiums and can't seem to find them. Most of the stuff for sale in their slabs is garbage coins. Lots of moderns and stuff that didn't need to be slabbed in the first place like common MS63 Morgans and MS64 Mercury dimes. Moderns seem to be selling at a discount. Overpriced common stuff seems to not be selling. 

US Coins for sale on eBay right now:

• NGC: 61,000+
• PCGS: 54,000+
• ANACS: 20,000+
• ICG: 8,700+
• CACG - 373 
• SEGS: 160
• ICCS (Canadian TPG): 128
• Accugrade: 29

 

You are looking in the wrong place, ebay is the ultimate dumping ground for common date common garbage.   And you left out raw coins, how many raw coins are listed on ebay today?   CACG is still new so there is not a lot of material to clog up ebay just yet.   My view from the sidelines is that while there is some premium for the common stuff in CACG holders, the real action and premiums are for the gem (MS65) and up material.

Still as a business man I'd take any premium over none.  That doesn't mean that CACG graded material will double or triple the price of P or N graded coins, but 10% to 20% more is not unusual.   As a coin dealer if you factor in the new low cost submission tiers at CACG for sub $500 Morgan dollars, plus a modest premium of say $10 a coin, the savings and/or gains over time could add up.

Still early in the game, two years from now will be the time to look at premiums and volume of coins on sites like ebay, GC, FB and others.   Your argument is the very similar to what coin dealers said when TPG's were just getting started.   Won't work, collectors don't want coins in plastic, blah blah, looks like they were wrong back then.

[gmarguli]

On 1/17/2024 at 2:08 PM, Coinbuf said:

That doesn't mean that CACG graded material will double or triple the price of P or N graded coins, but 10% to 20% more is not unusual.

This is a common fallacy. Nice / high end coins for the grade always brought a premium price. CAC slaps a sticker on a coin and it sell for 120% of generic. CAC supporters point to it as the CAC sticker brings a premium. Fact is, the coin might have sold for 120% generic without the sticker. 

Auction archives are littered with examples of nice coins selling for way more than generic prices and there is no sticker anywhere to be found! 

[Henri Charriere]

🐓  :  I am inclined to agree, unreservedly.

Q.A.  But you're overlooking something.

🐓  :  And what might that be?

Q.A.  Only the Great z's opinion counts -- and it's backed by a whole slew of well-regarded members here, and apparently nation-wide.

[Mike Meenderink]

On 1/18/2024 at 3:38 PM, gmarguli said:

Fact is, the coin might have sold for 120% generic without the sticker.

You just answered your own question. The entire concept around CAC beans was to differentiate exceptional coins and identify if those coins are truly in grade and at what exact numerical grade the coin deserves. Much like getting a second opinion from a doctor the affirmation of the "diagnosis" of a coin serves to confirm the symptom of a great coin. Conversely this can/has also cut the other way completely by coins not receiving the beans at all due to not being worthy and /or not accurately graded. Having a coin with a CAC bean (and now the holders) confirms to the market that the coin is indeed possibly worth your 120% plus number. Without the CAC bean or holder, the coin would still be nice but as the market goes today unambiguous to the other coins graded the same or coins encapsulated that are possibly over graded. 

Edited January 19 by Mike Meenderink

[Coinbuf]

On 1/18/2024 at 4:38 PM, gmarguli said:

This is a common fallacy. Nice / high end coins for the grade always brought a premium price. CAC slaps a sticker on a coin and it sell for 120% of generic. CAC supporters point to it as the CAC sticker brings a premium. Fact is, the coin might have sold for 120% generic without the sticker. 

Auction archives are littered with examples of nice coins selling for way more than generic prices and there is no sticker anywhere to be found! 

Not a fallacy at all, yes prior to CAC the best coins usually would sell for a premium, but not always.   CAC takes the guess work out of it for lesser experienced collectors who might have missed the better coin or bought the problem coin.  So because it is easier for collectors to identify the better quality coins I still contend that CAC approved coins are realizing higher premiums due to more bids than before CAC.

This of course has been bad for dealers in several ways thus I understand why some dealers pushback to CAC.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/17/2024 at 4:33 PM, gmarguli said:

I'm looking for these big premiums and can't seem to find them. Most of the stuff for sale in their slabs is garbage coins. Lots of moderns and stuff that didn't need to be slabbed in the first place like common MS63 Morgans and MS64 Mercury dimes. Moderns seem to be selling at a discount. Overpriced common stuff seems to not be selling.  US Coins for sale on eBay right now: NGC: 61,000+ PCGS: 54,000+ ANACS:  0,000+ ICG: 8,700+ CACG - 373  SEGS: 160 ICCS (Canadian TPG): 128 Accugrade: 29

Most people are saying you should see 20-25% premiums to the price guides (~ PCGS/NGC) just like PCGS+CAC.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/17/2024 at 5:08 PM, Coinbuf said:

Still early in the game, two years from now will be the time to look at premiums and volume of coins on sites like ebay, GC, FB and others.  

And of course HA and SB. 

What do YOU think happens given your veteran experience, CB ?   I heard that Laura S. is going all-out for CACG holders after basically equating PCGS+CAC as being the Bible for years.

Where do you think the Trophy Coins end up and their collectors as well ? 

Edited January 19 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/18/2024 at 6:38 PM, gmarguli said:

This is a common fallacy. Nice / high end coins for the grade always brought a premium price. CAC slaps a sticker on a coin and it sell for 120% of generic. CAC supporters point to it as the CAC sticker brings a premium. Fact is, the coin might have sold for 120% generic without the sticker.  Auction archives are littered with examples of nice coins selling for way more than generic prices and there is no sticker anywhere to be found! 

There's an element of truth in what you are saying. 

But since no 2 coins are EXACTLY alike, you really need to find 2 nearly-idential coins....selling at the same time...on the same platform.....one with CAC the other without....and then see where the coins sell for.  Sometimes you can find them at the same auction site at the same time with/without the CAC stickers. 

But it's rare.

Edited January 19 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

Here’s a wild kinky idea. How about if you carefully evaluate the coin, in your own hand, under the proper light, and DECIDE FOR YOURSELF what the grade is, and bid accordingly. I know, I know. What am I? Some kind of radical? Maybe, but it’s what I do. So retro. So paleo. Right? But I get to decide what works for me. I’ve taken part in NGC’s grading contest twice now and each time, I’ve been too tough on the coins. So if I grade a coin X, chances are it’s at least an X, and likely higher. 

Edited January 19 by VKurtB

[USAuPzlBxBob]

On 1/17/2024 at 12:59 PM, VKurtB said:

Ever see a hunk of sodium metal dumped into water? 

Yes.  In a science class, 7th or 8th grade, many, many years ago, when a teacher demonstrated the reactivity of sodium and water.

The memory prompted me to search YouTube and I was amazed to see that fairly common Li batteries have near-equally-incredible reactive inner-makeup.

No wonder we're hearing so much about E bike battery fires.

Warning:  Don't try this yourself.  Just enjoy the video for its educational content.

[Coinbuf]

On 1/18/2024 at 7:44 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

And of course HA and SB. 

What do YOU think happens given your veteran experience, CB ?   I heard that Laura S. is going all-out for CACG holders after basically equating PCGS+CAC as being the Bible for years.

Where do you think the Trophy Coins end up and their collectors as well ? 

I really do not know, at FUN CAC had at their table a display of the D. L. Hanson Barber Half Dollar set in nice new CAC holders.   Now I wasn't at FUN so I don't know if this was his top/best set or a duplicates set of Barbers.

But getting high profile customers and sets like his, TDN, and perhaps a few of the notable Legend customers to move their coins into CACG holders could be huge.

I've said it before, P and N have been grading coins for decades, it will be quite some time before CACG holders will be seen in the marketplace in volume like we see with P and N holders.  And the volume seen depends on where one looks, I'm part of a FB CAC/CACG group and there are plenty of CACG holders being shown and sold in that group.   Sales like those will not show up in any searches of traditional selling venues.

I know you also participate on the forum ATS, there is a thread on the first page related to the recent decline in quality of TrueView photos since Phil took a new position at GC.  And recently a member updated his year old thread to say that after almost exactly one year later he finally received a response from PCGS cs to his question.   I'm not sure if you are aware of this, but PCGS has the least experienced grading staff compared to NGC or CACG.

If you put all this together it seems (to me anyway) that PCGS is not what they once were, and is sliding down the slope from what was once hailed as the premier service to a third tier level service.

I personally haven't been impressed with PCGS for years, but the strong collector and dealer fan base has continued to prop them up and kept the veneer of being the best alive.   With very vocal dealers like Laura pushing CACG (just as she did for PCGS) and PCGS doing their best to tank their service, it is not hard to see CACG becoming a significant, dominant force in the TPG landscape.   And I also think it fair to note that Laura has a financial stake as an investor of CACG, so consider that when you look at her behavior in regards to CACG.

Edited January 19 by Coinbuf

[Henri Charriere]

On 1/19/2024 at 12:51 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

 

Hard to believe the two lighter elements on the Periodic Table are both gases: hydrogen and helium.  So Li reacts with H2O and becomes explosive. Hydrogen, in and of itself is simply a buoyant gas, but mixed with Oxygen, it becomes explosive. Prior to the current rash of Lithium ion battery fires, its use was only mentioned in the connection to the treatment of bipolar depression.

[zadok]

On 1/19/2024 at 4:03 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Hard to believe the two lighter elements on the Periodic Table are both gases: hydrogen and helium.  So Li reacts with H2O and becomes explosive. Hydrogen, in and of itself is simply a buoyant gas, but mixed with Oxygen, it becomes explosive. Prior to the current rash of Lithium ion battery fires, its use was only mentioned in the connection to the treatment of bipolar depression.

...oh spare us odin from the unwashed...i think the lithium cousins oxide, chloride, stearate, hydride mite disagree or maybe there has been too much usage of the carbonate cousin...n im sure many high speed trains n aircraft would take exception to such slander....

[Henri Charriere]

On 1/19/2024 at 4:30 PM, zadok said:

...oh spare us odin from the unwashed...i think the lithium cousins oxide, chloride, stearate, hydride mite disagree or maybe there has been too much usage of the carbonate cousin...n im sure many high speed trains n aircraft would take exception to such slander....

The breadth.of your knowledge, quite frankly, is breath-taking!  

[gmarguli]

On 1/19/2024 at 12:19 PM, Coinbuf said:

I know you also participate on the forum ATS, there is a thread on the first page related to the recent decline in quality of TrueView photos since Phil took a new position at GC.

It's funny that people are complaining about the quality of the TrueViews going down since Phil left. Months before Phil left I noticed a change in the TrueViews. The colors didn't pop as much and the coins looked a little darker. Honestly, they looked more accurate. Not as nice, but more accurate.

Phil did a great job of setting up the system to make the picture look like a coin you'd want to own, but they juiced so much color out of the coins that it wasn't accurate. I once had a dealer who specializes in toned coins tell me, in the beginning they didn't believe my pics and demanded TrueViews, now they don't believe in the TrueViews and want my pics. 

Also, I highly doubt that Phil touched most of the coins being imaged. It's likely an automated process. You can see TrueViews where the coin popped out of the plastic wheel that holds several coins at once and rotates for the pic. If it weren't an automated process, these would be caught.

 

 

[Coinbuf]

On 1/19/2024 at 3:50 PM, gmarguli said:

It's funny that people are complaining about the quality of the TrueViews going down since Phil left. Months before Phil left I noticed a change in the TrueViews. The colors didn't pop as much and the coins looked a little darker. Honestly, they looked more accurate. Not as nice, but more accurate.

Phil did a great job of setting up the system to make the picture look like a coin you'd want to own, but they juiced so much color out of the coins that it wasn't accurate. I once had a dealer who specializes in toned coins tell me, in the beginning they didn't believe my pics and demanded TrueViews, now they don't believe in the TrueViews and want my pics. 

Also, I highly doubt that Phil touched most of the coins being imaged. It's likely an automated process. You can see TrueViews where the coin popped out of the plastic wheel that holds several coins at once and rotates for the pic. If it weren't an automated process, these would be caught.

 

 

I think his leaving just creates a divergent point that is convenient for discussion.   I have never really like TV's as I have not seen that many coins which look like the corresponding TV unless you can duplicate the lighting.   I agree with you that TV's have always been too much glamor and less reality.   Personally, I thought that the TV product started to look "off" several years ago, like the old saying too many cooks in the kitchen.   When it was just Phil and a few others working together in the photo department they did turn out some very nice glamor shots.   But once the staff grew it was clear that the work load was not allowing enough time for the work to be done to the same level.   But at the same time, some of the recent shots shown in the thread ATS look really bad, honestly, I have never seen such terrible photos from the PCGS photo department as those I saw posted on that thread.

I'm sure that the process is/was setup to be very production line like, almost has to be given the volume of work.

[VKurtB]

On my way up to the 2022 ANA show in Rosemont, on just Interstate 65 there were TWO lengthy traffic jams for EV’s that had essentially burned into piles of metal alongside the road. There was one the previous January on I-75 on my way to Orlando. I can’t remember the last time I saw a gasoline powered car burn to the ground like that. I’m sure I have; I just can’t remember when. My insurance carrier told me, “You DON’T want to try to buy insurance on an electric car.” In 2023, my wife and I bought two new cars: a Ford Explorer ST with a twin-turbocharged 3.0 liter V6 (440 bhp), and a Mercedes GLC300 small SUV which has a “mild hybrid” power train. That car has been in the shop TWICE for hybrid system failures. The Explorer has had an oil change. 

[numisport]

On 1/10/2024 at 10:23 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I agree....but it now appears (I could be wrong here but don't think I am) that the CAC sticker on PCGS and NGC coins means that the coin was appropriate for the grade (A or B coin stickered) but is NOT guaranteed to cross at the same grade into CACG.

Huge debate over ATS and somewhat at CAC Forums about coins going from MS to AU with the whole "rub" and "wear" debates.  You have 1 of the 3 big TPGs doing a 180 from market to techincal grading and it's causing some angst. 

Yes I read that without comment. Cabinet rub has been a problem with me since the early days of grading Bust coinage. Too many coin doctors still out there and I feel they are being identified a little at a time. Problem is that nobody seems to notice. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Any new thoughts on CACG grading ? 

[Jason Abshier]

Thanks goodness they did not dabble into world coin sectors … they were talking about it once but plan must of gotten scrapped probably due to large spread in world graded coinage lack of population reports and so on …. We are living in the days where coin grades over lap so much nobody cares unless they can get a higher grade that worth more $$$… so it’s safe to say all everyone cares about is flipping coins for more money ? But not the true to heart collecting ?   but “hey ! Theres a new grading company let’s promote them and spend our hard earn money and jack the prices up!!!” …. Welcome to Market grading !!!! Driven by dealers and graders and buyers who take the biggest hit spending their hard earned cash 

[zadok]

On 3/28/2024 at 2:59 PM, Jason Abshier said:

Thanks goodness they did not dabble into world coin sectors … they were talking about it once but plan must of gotten scrapped probably due to large spread in world graded coinage lack of population reports and so on …. We are living in the days where coin grades over lap so much nobody cares unless they can get a higher grade that worth more $$$… so it’s safe to say all everyone cares about is flipping coins for more money ? But not the true to heart collecting ?   but “hey ! Theres a new grading company let’s promote them and spend our hard earn money and jack the prices up!!!” …. Welcome to Market grading !!!! Driven by dealers and graders and buyers who take the biggest hit spending their hard earned cash 

...not sure that the tide is flowing that way as strong as it has been in the past....

[Coinbuf]

On 3/28/2024 at 11:48 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Any new thoughts on CACG grading ? 

My thoughts are basically the same as they have been all along with regards to CACG, I have only made one submission for grading.   But from my results and those that I have read about, CACG is grading much closer to the historical ANA standards and less like the top two TPG's who are all-in on market grading.   There have been a few entertaining threads recently on the PCGS forum with a very recently former PCGS grader weighing in on those discussions, his comments and thought processes make it very clear just how much PCGS has embraced market grading.   Oddly while NGC did some damage to its reputation by being the first to embrace market grading, I would say that PCGS leads the charge in that respect today.

On 3/28/2024 at 11:59 AM, Jason Abshier said:

Thanks goodness they did not dabble into world coin sectors … they were talking about it once but plan must of gotten scrapped probably due to large spread in world graded coinage lack of population reports and so on …. We are living in the days where coin grades over lap so much nobody cares unless they can get a higher grade that worth more $$$… so it’s safe to say all everyone cares about is flipping coins for more money ? But not the true to heart collecting ?   but “hey ! Theres a new grading company let’s promote them and spend our hard earn money and jack the prices up!!!” …. Welcome to Market grading !!!! Driven by dealers and graders and buyers who take the biggest hit spending their hard earned cash 

While it is far too early to make any long-term calls, as I explain in my comments above CACG's grading is not like the big two.   CACG does put a stronger emphasis on not rewarding rub, be it from circulation of from stacking/cabinet friction, with MS grades which is a very different strategy than the big two.   Likewise unoriginal surfaces are not rewarded at CACG where the big two have been prone to looking the other way in the past.

That is not to say that there will be zero MS coins with rub in a CACG MS holder, nothing is ever 100%.   And it is way too early to know if CACG will be able to continue to adhere to these standards moving forward or for how long.   But I for one am happy to see a TPG service that values originality and unmolested surfaces over the many processed and worked on coins that you see.

I 100% agree with you that the coin hobby/business has been heavily financialized and that has in part been facilitated by market grading.   In all honesty, the people we see like mustacheman, and vasquez are the products of this financialization, and that is partly why I give them no quarter or respect.   People like them do not present, to me at least, that they are here to learn or collect only strip-mine.

Edited March 28 by Coinbuf

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  They've got a new name for you.

Q.A.:  What's that? 

🐓 :  Strip miner.

Q.A.:  Sheesh!