CACG has arrived. Loudly knocking. Will NGC and PCGS answer the door? Do you think NGC and PCGS will counter CACG and their "premium certification" services with their own new services or certifications? 2 2

[Mike Meenderink]

Beyond PCGS Gold Shield beyond CAC beans beyond NGC MAC or PCGS MAC certified coins are the new CACG certified coins that are bringing big premiums due to the company's reputation for very accurately grading coins. Do you think these other companies will design a line of services to match or rival this relative newcomer? Tell me what you think below do they need to counter CACG or should they just stay business as usual?

[RWB]

Any facts to present?

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/17/2023 at 6:37 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

Do you think these other companies will design a line of services to match or rival this relative newcomer? Tell me what you think below do they need to counter CACG or should they just stay business as usual?

It is not like no one saw this coming.  If there were something they could have done, they would have already done it.  Now there is nothing left to do but wait for the fickle market to render its verdict.  Money talks, [barnyard epithet] walks.

[Sandon]

   I'm hoping that the competition from CAC Grading will deter the other major services from raising their prices. Presently, CAC Grading's rates are slightly lower than NGC's or PCGS's, although those of us who aren't already CAC members can't submit directly. https://www.cacgrading.com/pricing.  

   Historically, large submitters (dealers) have been perceived as at least tacitly pressuring grading services toward looser, not tighter, grading standards. If such large submitters believe that coins that they submit will regularly grade lower at CAC than at NGC or PCGS, will they still submit them to CAC? 

   I doubt that most experienced collectors would be willing to pay a premium over retail list prices for a CAC graded coin in a given grade merely because of the holder it is in. They will only do so if they actually perceive the coin as pleasing for the grade.  I haven't found most of the CAC stickered coins I've seen to be appreciably nicer than non-stickered examples certified by the same services in the same grades, and I'd rather find a coin I find accurately graded and attractive that isn't stickered or holdered by CAC than pay a premium for a CAC stickered or holdered coin in the same grade.

[VKurtB]

So far, the actual plastic slab at CACG is a piece of junk, relative to PCGS or NGC. They’ll need to improve it, and not just a little. The service is fine. The product is not. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by VKurtB

[Coinbuf]

On 12/17/2023 at 7:58 PM, Sandon said:

   I'm hoping that the competition from CAC Grading will deter the other major services from raising their prices. Presently, CAC Grading's rates are slightly lower than NGC's or PCGS's, although those of us who aren't already CAC members can't submit directly. https://www.cacgrading.com/pricing.  

   Historically, large submitters (dealers) have been perceived as at least tacitly pressuring grading services toward looser, not tighter, grading standards. If such large submitters believe that coins that they submit will regularly grade lower at CAC than at NGC or PCGS, will they still submit them to CAC? 

   I doubt that most experienced collectors would be willing to pay a premium over retail list prices for a CAC graded coin in a given grade merely because of the holder it is in. They will only do so if they actually perceive the coin as pleasing for the grade.  I haven't found most of the CAC stickered coins I've seen to be appreciably nicer than non-stickered examples certified by the same services in the same grades, and I'd rather find a coin I find accurately graded and attractive that isn't stickered or holdered by CAC than pay a premium for a CAC stickered or holdered coin in the same grade.

I would say that my experience is the polar opposite of yours when it comes to CAC.   Almost every CAC graded or stickered coin I have and the vast majority of those I have viewed are superior to a high percentage of those of the same grade in other brands or without stickers.    And so far, a high percentage of CAC stickered and graded coins have asking prices or realized auction prices that are in excess of standard guide prices.   Certainly, anyone can find a few examples of stickered or graded CAC coins that have not outperformed the guides but as an overall those are the outliers not the norm.

And I would say that most experienced collectors would indeed be (and are) willing to pay a premium for CAC graded and stickered coins, why do I think that, simple, those coins are so often superior to the vast majority of the usual tired and stale material in the market that continues to circulate between dealers and collectors.   Superior coins almost always bring strong prices, that is why CAC stickered coins have performed so well in the past and why CAC graded coins are doing well now.

Its the less educated, "bargain" buyers that are not willing to step up and pay for quality.

Edited December 18, 2023 by Coinbuf

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 6:37 PM, Mike Meenderink said:

Beyond PCGS Gold Shield beyond CAC beans beyond NGC MAC or PCGS MAC certified coins are the new CACG certified coins that are bringing big premiums due to the company's reputation for very accurately grading coins. Do you think these other companies will design a line of services to match or rival this relative newcomer? Tell me what you think below do they need to counter CACG or should they just stay business as usual?

I think it's too early...we need to see how long any premium persists and if it allows CACG to grab significatnt market share.

Suppose someone submits a coin.  They are sure it's MS-65 and MAYBE MS-66.  They send it to CACG.  It gets an MS-64.  Great, they have a premium 64 but even with a premium price on it it's at a DISCOUNT to the same coin in an NGC or PCGS holder at MS-65.

Now...if they are a good grader and they think their coin is a 65 and it comes back CACG MS-65, they're ahead of the game because in the past unless you got a 66 from PCGS or NGC....or if you got a 65 from them you would then have to submit to CAC and hope for/get a CAC bean....now you're ahead of the game.

The Big Boys with trophy coins will have a big say in how the 3 TPGs are perceived.

Edited December 18, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 9:58 PM, Sandon said:

Historically, large submitters (dealers) have been perceived as at least tacitly pressuring grading services toward looser, not tighter, grading standards. If such large submitters believe that coins that they submit will regularly grade lower at CAC than at NGC or PCGS, will they still submit them to CAC?   

Do you think that the volume of non-modern coinage submitted yearly has increased in recent years vs. 10 or 20 or 30 years ago ?  You would think that most of the coins have already been submitted, right ?  Once the TPGs were established in 1986-87, I would think the initial rush was the highpoint.

For instance, I would think that yearly the number of Double Eagles submitted now vs. then -- and also for Wheat Pennies, Franklins, and other classic coins -- probably dropped off, right ?  I think PCGS used to put out a Population Report every year but I believe they stopped a while back. 

If PCGS and NGC have the total of graded coins online now....then a snapshot on December 31st of each year would show how the trend is going. 

On 12/17/2023 at 9:58 PM, Sandon said:

I doubt that most experienced collectors would be willing to pay a premium over retail list prices for a CAC graded coin in a given grade merely because of the holder it is in. They will only do so if they actually perceive the coin as pleasing for the grade.  I haven't found most of the CAC stickered coins I've seen to be appreciably nicer than non-stickered examples certified by the same services in the same grades, and I'd rather find a coin I find accurately graded and attractive that isn't stickered or holdered by CAC than pay a premium for a CAC stickered or holdered coin in the same grade.

I agree this is the LOGICAL position to take, Sandon....but I am not sure it will hold up when you have PERCEPTION and PRICING at stake.  That is why PCGS coins command a premium on domestic coins even when a discerning eye can't tell the difference between 2 similar coins (PCGS vs. NGC) and NGC has the same on foreign.

When was the last trophy coin you saw that did NOT come in a PCGS holder ?  

When was the last time that the top coin in a series, or at least a few of the Top 5 coins, did NOT have a CAC sticker on it/them (aside from the 1908 NM Saints) ?

Perception is strange, Sandon.  You had a famous collector who ASKED that a 1927-D Saint get a lower grade -- so it could CAC sticker there as opposed to the higher grade.  Weird...... 

Edited December 18, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:28 PM, VKurtB said:

So far, the actual plastic slab at CACG is a piece of junk, relative to PCGS or NGC. They’ll need to improve it, and not just a little. The service is fine. The product is not. 

You mean the appearance or the composition ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:45 PM, Coinbuf said:

I would say that my experience is the polar opposite of yours when it comes to CAC.   Almost every CAC graded or stickered coin I have and the vast majority of those I have viewed are superior to a high percentage of those of the same grade in other brands or without stickers.    And so far, a high percentage of CAC stickered and graded coins have asking prices or realized auction prices that are in excess of standard guide prices.   Certainly, anyone can find a few examples of stickered or graded CAC coins that have not outperformed the guides but as an overall those are the outliers not the norm.

The one fly in the ointment....at least for the series that I track heavily (Saints, Morgans)....it appears that the premiums have begun to dissipate possibly because of the start-up of CACG...but also because most people feel that if a coin has CAC and has NOT upgraded by now...that it won't be going up in grade.

Where "inflection point" prices and grades are involved, I see the sellers simply being too greedy...too high....in their asking price.  This is using mostly GC and some HA as my references.

[powermad5000]

I am not really sure what the end game is here, except for CACG competing for $$$$ of market share.

Is the coin still not the coin? Would not a Morgan dollar in an NGC slab graded as MS 67+* DPL not be a fantastic coin without a green bean or Mac sticker that any one of us would not be proud to own?

If all this CACG and green bean stuff is what is necessary to make extra money on a coin or resell it at a price above price guide values, how much more premium is it really getting? I mean, I'm sure the coins themselves are awesome looking, but who are they really catering to? Not me. I don't always "bargain" buy (I will if I come across something), but I am happy paying a reasonable price for a nice coin. I don't feel the need to buy something so I can brag how much I paid for it. If anything, I would brag about how little I paid for something and how much its value is after I submitted it for grading.

I myself have no interest in the whole CACG thing. When I go to coin shows, I already see cases full of coins that are fantastic and I cannot afford to buy. Now there will just be more of them.

[zadok]

On 12/18/2023 at 2:00 AM, powermad5000 said:

I am not really sure what the end game is here, except for CACG competing for $$$$ of market share.

Is the coin still not the coin? Would not a Morgan dollar in an NGC slab graded as MS 67+* DPL not be a fantastic coin without a green bean or Mac sticker that any one of us would not be proud to own?

If all this CACG and green bean stuff is what is necessary to make extra money on a coin or resell it at a price above price guide values, how much more premium is it really getting? I mean, I'm sure the coins themselves are awesome looking, but who are they really catering to? Not me. I don't always "bargain" buy (I will if I come across something), but I am happy paying a reasonable price for a nice coin. I don't feel the need to buy something so I can brag how much I paid for it. If anything, I would brag about how little I paid for something and how much its value is after I submitted it for grading.

I myself have no interest in the whole CACG thing. When I go to coin shows, I already see cases full of coins that are fantastic and I cannot afford to buy. Now there will just be more of them.

...a valid honest perspective...some of us just buy the coins for the coins, regardless of how holdered or not but there is a serious market consideration to factor in on certain opportunities...CAC coins r real n r not going to diminish, CACG is also real n the market will adapt to its presence....

[VKurtB]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You mean the appearance or the composition ?

The plastic looks AND FEELS like cheap junk.

[Coinbuf]

On 12/18/2023 at 12:00 AM, powermad5000 said:

I am not really sure what the end game is here, except for CACG competing for $$$$ of market share.

 

Always follow the money, and while I'm sure that CACG is expecting to be a profit center, I also think that JA does consider the collector in overall scheme of his operation, something that I am not sure I can say is true for large companies owned by wall street.   One of the reasons that JA has stated he wanted to start a CAC grading service was to cut some of the expense for average collectors.   Before CACG you had to send to TPG XYZ, then send to CAC stickering (assuming you want the sticker), CACG is meant to be a one stop shop where you can have your coins graded to the same standards as CAC stickering without the extra shipping costs and risk of loss.

On 12/18/2023 at 12:00 AM, powermad5000 said:

Is the coin still not the coin? Would not a Morgan dollar in an NGC slab graded as MS 67+* DPL not be a fantastic coin without a green bean or Mac sticker that any one of us would not be proud to own?

 

I am not at all certain why you would choose to use a MAC sticker in the same breath as a CAC sticker, or even a Grif sticker.   MAC has no value in the marketplace except for the suckers that he finds on ebay that don't know any better and pay up for his inferior coins.   I know of no serious collector that would give weight or value to a MAC sticker.

And while you may not know any collectors who do, there are many collectors that will pass on very high grade and/or expensive coins (like your MS67+* DPL example) without a CAC sticker under the rational that such a coin must have already failed at CAC.   If you have a collection of any significant value, it is important to understand there are many collectors who value the holder and/or the sticker more than the coin, like it or not that is the reality of the current coin market especially true for coins in the grades of MS65 or higher.   As you move down in grades to lower MS and circulated grades a CAC sticker may be of less value but might result in a faster sale, which has a value in and of itself.

On 12/18/2023 at 12:00 AM, powermad5000 said:

I myself have no interest in the whole CACG thing. When I go to coin shows, I already see cases full of coins that are fantastic and I cannot afford to buy. Now there will just be more of them.

No one has to have an interest, but it is wise to understand that even if you have no interest and do not value a sticker or holder there are collectors that do.   And because there are many that do; having or not having the sticker can make a big value difference when you or your heirs sell.   You may not care now, but someday you might have a different perspective on this, or perhaps your heirs will wish that you had.

Something that many who poo-poo the CAC sticker don't realize is just how valuable that sticker can be in helping many collectors to not buy over graded and doctored coins; not everyone has the time or ability to become an expert grader.    Perhaps you know how to identify every single doctored coin in a straight graded TPG holder, but you would be a very rare individual as many, myself included, cannot every time.   The fact that there are coins with surface issues out in the marketplace is exactly why a second opinion has value.   If your doctor told you tomorrow that you were going to die in two weeks from some rare disease, would you just accept that as gospel or would you want a second confirming opinion.    I think that most would choose to have a second opinion before they start picking out a casket, CAC is that second opinion.

[Coinbuf]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:02 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The one fly in the ointment....at least for the series that I track heavily (Saints, Morgans)....it appears that the premiums have begun to dissipate possibly because of the start-up of CACG...but also because most people feel that if a coin has CAC and has NOT upgraded by now...that it won't be going up in grade.

Where "inflection point" prices and grades are involved, I see the sellers simply being too greedy...too high....in their asking price.  This is using mostly GC and some HA as my references.

I don't think it has anything to do with the CAC startup, just coincidence.   I think the covid boom is starting to fade, not gone but it has lessened and is putting some pressure on pricing in some areas where some buyers may have "paid up" and are now having a tough time finding a buyer.

[VKurtB]

On 12/18/2023 at 4:12 PM, Coinbuf said:

 If your doctor told you tomorrow that you were going to die in two weeks from some rare disease, would you just accept that as gospel or would you want a second confirming opinion.

My wife went to her ENT specialist three days ago, and had a terrible cough that she had been dealing with for a week.They tested for the big 3 pulmonary viruses. All 3 negative. She was still suffering today, so she went to our primary care physician. Positive for COVID AND RSV. I am still asymptomatic. But I was in an RSV study and got the live unapproved vaccine. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Just curious...what are the grading fees on a trophy coin worth $1 MM ?  What about one worth $100,000 ? 

Even if you spend 2-3 minutes on the coin instead of 30 seconds, it's a huge windfall for the lucky TPG.

Edited December 19, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 12/18/2023 at 1:02 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The one fly in the ointment....at least for the series that I track heavily (Saints, Morgans)....it appears that the premiums have begun to dissipate possibly because of the start-up of CACG...but also because most people feel that if a coin has CAC and has NOT upgraded by now...that it won't be going up in grade.

Where "inflection point" prices and grades are involved, I see the sellers simply being too greedy...too high....in their asking price.  This is using mostly GC and some HA as my references.

...i think that u partially misunderstand the CAC implications...not all coins, in fact many coins, with CAC stickers r not submitted for upgrades...the presence of the sticker suffices n the implication is understood, having the coin in an upgraded holder isnt required to monetarily benefit from the sticker...some may not understand fully but in some instances i have purchased certified coins in grades ms64 n ms65 non-stickered n broken the coins out n resubmitted to the other tpg in hopes of getting the coins graded one grade lower n then submitted to CAC if i thought the coin warranted a sticker, the monetary advantage outweighs the costs involved...the same can be true on crossing over coins n specifying acceptance of a one grade reduction in grade...of course this is only profitable if the value of the coin is high enuf to start with....

[Coinbuf]

On 12/18/2023 at 10:04 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Just curious...what are the grading fees on a trophy coin worth $1 MM ?  What about one worth $100,000 ? 

Even if you spend 2-3 minutes on the coin instead of 30 seconds, it's a huge windfall for the lucky TPG.

It is not a windfall, it is self insurance against the eventual payout for the grading guarantee.   If you are the TPG that has to eat an expensive coin because the graders missed something; and this has happened; you have to have the monies to make the payout or you will be out of business.

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/18/2023 at 3:45 PM, VKurtB said:

The plastic looks AND FEELS like cheap junk.

If true, i.e., the use of subpar materials, that doesn't bode well for an upstart.  At the very least, I would expect a state-of-the-art  museum-quality mausoleum with chip technology to insure the integrity of the product in repose has not been compromised.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2023 at 11:28 PM, VKurtB said:

So far, the actual plastic slab at CACG is a piece of junk, relative to PCGS or NGC. They’ll need to improve it, and not just a little. The service is fine. The product is not. 

Is it tamper-resistant and as protective as the PCGS and NGC holders ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2023 at 5:54 PM, Coinbuf said:

I don't think it has anything to do with the CAC startup, just coincidence.   I think the covid boom is starting to fade, not gone but it has lessened and is putting some pressure on pricing in some areas where some buyers may have "paid up" and are now having a tough time finding a buyer.

I would agree with this, CB. 

Have any of you checked out this price, sticker, and grading matrix by CAC ?  Not sure if they always had this sans the grading component but it's pretty useful.  Though I question the prices at certain points -- like that for a 1908 No Motto Saint-Gaudens MS-67...$16,200 for the 27 stickered (none GRADED that high by CACG).  MS-67's can be had for ~ 5,500 (NGC) and ~ $6,500 (PCGS) and if the MS-68's are ~ $25,000 that price for the 67 CACG or sticker seems to be implying very good chance of an upgrade to 68 which the passage of time would seem to say otherwise.

[VKurtB]

On 12/26/2023 at 1:41 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Is it tamper-resistant and as protective as the PCGS and NGC holders ?

Tamper resistance looks okay.

[Coinbuf]

@GoldFinger1969 I don't follow Saints, but ultra gems in any series can have wild swings in value that depend less on guides and more on the coin itself.   Yes you can buy MS67's for less than guide prices, currently PCGS coinfacts shows a guide price of $9,000 but most recent non CAC beaned auctions are selling for less than the guide price.   But how do you decide how much the bean affects prices, again looking at only coinfacts there has been only one CAC approved coin to sell (an MS68 graded PCGS coin) and that was back in 2020 before prices were run well up.   So while the CAC guide price of $16,200 for an MS67 may be a bit high (just as the PCGS guide price is high), it is difficult to pin down pricing on an item that is seldom seen in the marketplace.

Keep in mind there likely have been other sales, perhaps at GC or private sales, I only looked quickly at coinfacts for some fast data points as I don't collect Saints and don't follow pricing trends for the series.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/19/2023 at 9:57 AM, zadok said:

 in some instances i have purchased certified coins in grades ms64 n ms65 non-stickered n broken the coins out n resubmitted to the other tpg in hopes of getting the coins graded one grade lower n then submitted to CAC if i thought the coin warranted a sticker, the monetary advantage outweighs the costs involved.

Hey....you're not the guy who asked for and received a LOWER grade for a 1927-D Saint so it could get a CAC sticker, are you ? 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/23/2023 at 11:55 AM, Henri Charriere said:

If true, i.e., the use of subpar materials, that doesn't bode well for an upstart.  At the very least, I would expect a state-of-the-art  museum-quality mausoleum with chip technology to insure the integrity of the product in repose has not been compromised.

Yeah, aren't security chips now standard on some of the pricier valuations of coins or tiered grading services ?  I would have thought CACG would have had that from Day 1.

Maybe nobody really wants it in their holders ?

[Coinbuf]

On 12/26/2023 at 9:02 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Maybe nobody really wants it in their holders ?

I have read several reports ats of people that have been able to read a PCGS tag with their smartphone while still inside some shipping packaging.   This brings up the question, would having an RFID tag in your slabs make your coins more at risk of theft from a shipping agent than a slab without such a tag.    The only thing the tag does is bring up the TPG website/registry via that TPG's app, does that really help you or does it help the TPG more?

[zadok]

On 12/26/2023 at 11:00 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Hey....you're not the guy who asked for and received a LOWER grade for a 1927-D Saint so it could get a CAC sticker, are you ? 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2023 at 5:12 PM, Coinbuf said:

One of the reasons that JA has stated he wanted to start a CAC grading service was to cut some of the expense for average collectors.   Before CACG you had to send to TPG XYZ, then send to CAC stickering (assuming you want the sticker), CACG is meant to be a one stop shop where you can have your coins graded to the same standards as CAC stickering without the extra shipping costs and risk of loss..

Is this legit, CB ?  Unless someone is going to get hundreds or thousands of coins graded and seek CAC beans how much are we talking about -- especially relative to the value of the collection itself ?

I thought -- and maybe I'm wrong -- that people SELECTIVELY sought CAC stickers for a few coins here or there.  And if someone had a pricey collection, wouldn't grading costs and/or CAC stickering be a rounding error compared to the collection itself (or are grading/stickering costs also tied to the values of the coins) ?

 

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/26/2023 at 11:36 PM, Coinbuf said:

I have read several reports ats of people that have been able to read a PCGS tag with their smartphone while still inside some shipping packaging.   This brings up the question, would having an RFID tag in your slabs make your coins more at risk of theft from a shipping agent than a slab without such a tag.    The only thing the tag does is bring up the TPG website/registry via that TPG's app, does that really help you or does it help the TPG more?

Good question, and an important one at that.  Your comment prompts me to report an interesting new development at PCGS. If I am not mistaken, if you want to view the various Set Registries, you are free to do so. You did not, and do not, need to be a member. Contrary to NGC which promotes competition and interest, many sets at PCGS are registered and listed but not viewable at the owner's request. (And no one, member or not, can PM the owner.) Case in point: French 10-Francs gold roosters. There are three, but only one is "public". With only one viewable set to refer to, it is simply not possible for collectors of that series to know where they stand.

Now, however, it seems if you wish to view any one of the tens of thousands of sets, whether your own or anyone else's, you must log-in and after doing so, must submit a verification code to be received via text or phone (your choice) ostensibly to "verify this is really you."  I do not know what prompted these additional security measures but in view of what you've disclosed regarding their chip technology, it seems they are ratcheting up their security measures and, in so doing, creating a paper trail of access which would come in handy for investigative purposes.  I have to believe if what you've said is true, they have been made aware of it and the matter is being addressed.