1914-D vs 1931-S Lincoln Cent 1 1

[Teddy R]

I'm working on a US 20th Century Type set with Key Coins. I've been going back and forth between the 14-D and the 31-S lincoln cent for the "Wheat Penny" slot.

The 31-S has that desirable sub one million mintage. The 31-S can be purchased in 63 R for the same money as a F/VF 14-D. The 31-S has appreciated more over the last 20/25 years.

So...let's hear your thoughts and opinions.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Teddy R

[Henri Charriere]

My thought is what's 20 or 25 years to a man who's lived to be 164, thus far. 🤣

Seriously, I would check official mintages with certifications. Personally, I would choose the 31-S, but again, check what's out there, what it's going for and buy from reputable sources with a return policy if buying online.

(P.S. Thanks for declining to dispatch that Mama bear in MS. back in '03. You'll be delighted to know your birthplace here in NYC remains in picture-perfect order.

[Sandon]

    1931-S cents tend to be in much higher grade than 1914-Ds. There were fewer collectors of coins by date and mint in 1914 than in the 1930s. The vast majority of the 1914-D mintage went into circulation and stayed there for many years until many collectors started looking for them, while much of the 1931-S mintage at first stayed in banks due to the Depression and then was hoarded in uncirculated condition by dealers and collectors. It is said that one Maurice Scharlack alone hoarded some 200,000 uncirculated 1931-S cents, over 23% of the original 866,000 mintage! See S. Taylor, The Standard Guide to the Lincoln Cent (3d ed. 1992) at 44-45, 82-83; D. W. Lange, The Complete Guide to Lincoln Cents (2005) at 115-16, 163-64.  Most of the mintage of 1931-S cents likely still exist in Extremely Fine to Uncirculated grades, while many of the 1914-Ds were lost in circulation or worn down to low grades and are often impaired.

    I don't support the hoarding or use in type sets of "key date" coins, which creates an unnatural demand for them with artificially high prices that may be vulnerable to crashes when prices are seen to peak and hoards are dispersed. Even 1914-Ds in uncirculated grades are probably no rarer than many other uncirculated mintmarked cents of the 1911-27 era but sell for very high prices due to the perception of the 1914-D as a "key". You might want to consider a well-struck uncirculated mintmarked 1911-27 cent in brown or red and brown preservation over either a circulated 1914-D or an uncirculated 1931-S for your type set. You may discover that finding one is a challenge.

[Moxie15]

A type set with all key dates is a cool beyond belief concept!

As to your question of 14-D or 31-S, a 31-S would be easier to achieve and the money you save can be spent on harder coins. Either way it is your collection and it has to please you and no one else. I will be impressed either way you go.

[Coinbuf]

Well I have both, in fact I have a couple examples of both dates.   While the 31-S has been given the title of key date it is anything but, it is far more difficult and expensive to find a nice, attractive, well struck, UNC S mint coin from almost any of the middle 20s dates than an UNC 31-S.   Also, most MS63 red coins have a tendency to be spotty or lacking in eye appeal, in my opinion it would be better to have a real key date in a nice problem free VF or XF.   Or find a nice lustrous MS brown coin that will allow you to buy a higher grade with far superior eye appeal than many MS63RD's are likely to provide.

Personally, I would find one of the middle teens branch mint coins, those can be found with some absolutely hammered strikes dripping with luster in 65BN, great looking coins.   I actually bought this 15-D MS63 in the old ANACS soapbox holder last year from a PCGS forum member for under $100, way undergraded in my opinion.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by Coinbuf

[zadok]

...a decent topic for discussion n definitely not a unique consideration, in my formative n learning years as a collector i also considered this as a "cool" collecting endeavor...in fact during those years i completed a US type set in the "key dates" 3 different times in 3 different grades, two for myself n once for a fellow-collector who didnt trust his grading skills, this was pre-TPG...none of these 3 sets was difficult to complete due to the facts that none of these coins r truly rare, my first set averaged ms63 grades, the second was in the gem grades, ms65 n above...after becoming more or less bored with this area of collecting n advancing to more difficult n challenging areas i decided to liquidate my sets n relocate those funds, surprise surprise virtually no one else found them as "cool" as i had...the average collector couldnt afford the cumulative value entailed n the dealers wouldnt touch them, i decided to shop them on the floor at the ANA that year, i managed to find a buyer for the 63 set n just about broke even less the loss of interest on my money...i finally was able to get one of the major auction houses to accept the 65 set on consignment but with the provision it would be broken up n sold individually...this is just my personal experiences with this endeavor n urs may be entirely different, once again i would offer...that collecting is a personal journey n every collector should choose his/her journey as it most makes them happy, there is no right or wrong its what puts a smile on ur face n the satisfaction u achieve in getting there....

[World Colonial]

The 31-S is more overpriced for the relative scarcity.  It might have gained more value over the last few decades (don't know) but it's selling for less (adjusted for price changes than it did in 1965, noticeably.

It's a coin that should be worth a few dollars at most in a grade like MS-63.

[ldhair]

I have never thought of the 31-S as a key date. A nice 14-D would be my vote.

[Teddy R]

On 6/10/2023 at 6:36 PM, Sandon said:

    1931-S cents tend to be in much higher grade than 1914-Ds. There were fewer collectors of coins by date and mint in 1914 than in the 1930s. The vast majority of the 1914-D mintage went into circulation and stayed there for many years until many collectors started looking for them, while much of the 1931-S mintage at first stayed in banks due to the Depression and then was hoarded in uncirculated condition by dealers and collectors. It is said that one Maurice Scharlack alone hoarded some 200,000 uncirculated 1931-S cents, over 23% of the original 866,000 mintage! See S. Taylor, The Standard Guide to the Lincoln Cent (3d ed. 1992) at 44-45, 82-83; D. W. Lange, The Complete Guide to Lincoln Cents (2005) at 115-16, 163-64.  Most of the mintage of 1931-S cents likely still exist in Extremely Fine to Uncirculated grades, while many of the 1914-Ds were lost in circulation or worn down to low grades and are often impaired.

    I don't support the hoarding or use in type sets of "key date" coins, which creates an unnatural demand for them with artificially high prices that may be vulnerable to crashes when prices are seen to peak and hoards are dispersed. Even 1914-Ds in uncirculated grades are probably no rarer than many other uncirculated mintmarked cents of the 1911-27 era but sell for very high prices due to the perception of the 1914-D as a "key". You might want to consider a well-struck uncirculated mintmarked 1911-27 cent in brown or red and brown preservation over either a circulated 1914-D or an uncirculated 1931-S for your type set. You may discover that finding one is a challenge.

Great info, thanks for sharing.

I doubt my humble collection of key coins will create a Hunt Brothers type shift in values. I'm no Maurice Scharlack, one of each is good for me.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Teddy R

[Teddy R]

On 6/10/2023 at 6:58 PM, Moxie15 said:

A type set with all key dates is a cool beyond belief concept!

As to your question of 14-D or 31-S, a 31-S would be easier to achieve and the money you save can be spent on harder coins. Either way it is your collection and it has to please you and no one else. I will be impressed either way you go.

I've decided to go quality over quantity with my collection. It will probably be a custom set as looking over the 20th Century Type in the Registry shows at least 16 of the 39 slots have no key coin. Some of the coins in the set will be mid grade but I will work towards continuing improvement. I plan on outlining how I got to this point in a journal when I have more time (winter).

Edited June 12, 2023 by Teddy R

[Teddy R]

I appreciate all the responses, thanks to all.

I went to a local show last week. Found a 14-D in F but it had a black discoloration all around Abe. Found a 31-S in 63 RB but it had a black spot on the reverse.

My conclusion, I will see what comes along and when I find the right coin, that's the one that will fill the slot. Might eventually end up with both.

If anyone is interested, I converted a custom set I already had into my new Type Set. You can see it here https://coins.www.collectors-society.com/wcm/CoinCustomSetView.aspx?s=31550

[ldhair]

On 6/18/2023 at 3:18 PM, Teddy R said:

My conclusion, I will see what comes along and when I find the right coin, that's the one that will fill the slot. Might eventually end up with both.

Wise choice. The right coin will come along.