What do you see happening if the U.S. defaulted on its debt? 1 1

[Henri Charriere]

The $24 trillion U.S. Treasury market is the primary source of financing for the government as well as the largest debt market in the world.  If it were to occur -- June 1st, or two weeks from today -- what impact would it have on you and the coin collecting hobby at large?

[GoldFinger1969]

Lots of chaos.  Should be taken off the deck PERMANENTLY.

Could have lots of unforeseen consequences, like when Lehman Brothers failed and that led to the Reserve Fund "breaking the buck" and causing a liquidity crunch.

Probably bullish for gold, if anybody cares.

[zadok]

On 5/18/2023 at 8:30 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Lots of chaos.  Should be taken off the deck PERMANENTLY.

Could have lots of unforeseen consequences, like when Lehman Brothers failed and that led to the Reserve Fund "breaking the buck" and causing a liquidity crunch.

Probably bullish for gold, if anybody cares.

...the chaos, no immediate effect on me...the gold bull, id love it....

[VKurtB]

This is pure politics. Don’t kid yourselves. 

[Zebo]

It will not happen! There will be a load of politics and name calling, but at the end of the day - the government has the means to adjust before any default would ever happen. Devaluation of the dollar - sure, cutting back if needed - unlikely. Default no way!

as for coin collecting - no change. Remember that even in the depression, the coin hobby continued. 
 

[World Colonial]

I don't think it would make any difference, at this time.  If it did, it's a psychological reaction.  Everyone knows the USG can always pay its debts by "printing" if necessary.

At some point contrary to conventional wisdom, the USG probably will be better off defaulting versus destroying the currency.  But first, I expect many other "policy changes" which will include "technical defaults".  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/19/2023 at 7:09 AM, Zebo said:

as for coin collecting - no change. Remember that even in the depression, the coin hobby continued. 

I wonder if anybody got hassled who collected gold coins and/or got inquiries as to whether the coin(s) qualified as numismatic exceptions to FDR's edicts ?  I know RWBs DE book mentioned a few people who did get their gold seized (sometimes with compensation, other times not).

Obviously, very few people could afford to collect gold coins in the 1930's.  Most recorded auctions/sales seem to start about 1937, when we were climbing out of The Depression.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/19/2023 at 8:51 AM, World Colonial said:

At some point contrary to conventional wisdom, the USG probably will be better off defaulting versus destroying the currency.  But first, I expect many other "policy changes" which will include "technical defaults".  

We should never default and there's no need to -- we control our own printing press.  As the global reserve financial currency where 90% of all FOREX trades involve the dollar, the doom-and-gloomers need to chill out, IMO. 

I do believe the bankrupt state/local governments (with pension and OPEB deficits) need to 'fess up now.  The $36 BB bailout of the CSPF was an absolute disgrace (and no word from the usual clowns screaming about "Wall Street bailouts" ).

Edited May 19, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

Why are everyone else’s political threads allowed and I get warnings???

[World Colonial]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:23 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

We should never default and there's no need to -- we control our own printing press.  As the global reserve financial currency where 90% of all FOREX trades involve the dollar, the doom-and-gloomers need to chill out, IMO. 

Resorting to the "printing press" ultimately means both the government's credit and the national currency are destroyed, instead of just credit.  When markets lose confidence in the currency, it will be irrelevant whether the government defaults explicitly or through the printing press.  The end result is still declining or crashing domestic living standards for most of the population.

The foreign exchange value of the USD is the most critical indicator.  As a proxy, the DXY is around 101 now.  The key level is the 2008 low of 70.  So yes, there is some latitude but not as much as most believe.

Before it gets to this point though, I expect numerous "unorthodox" actions by the USG or any other developed country government.

As for the OP's question, doesn't really have anything to do with it.  The coin market price level for the more expensive coinage anyway is contingent upon the broader asset mania.

[ldhair]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:06 AM, VKurtB said:

Why are everyone else’s political threads allowed and I get warnings???

And we don't have an alt to come back as.

[Coinbuf]

On 5/19/2023 at 10:09 AM, ldhair said:

And we don't have an alt to come back as.

Actually it is not an alt, just a name change to try and hide from his QA legacy, or whatever you call his history here.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/19/2023 at 11:06 AM, VKurtB said:

Why are everyone else’s political threads allowed and I get warnings???

I think we're discussing a topic without regard to party affiliation.  No Blame Game .  

So it's not a "political" thread anymore than one that says that inflation is too high or the Fed is doing a great/lousy job. 

[VKurtB]

On 5/19/2023 at 1:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think we're discussing a topic without regard to party affiliation.  No Blame Game .  

So it's not a "political" thread anymore than one that says that inflation is too high or the Fed is doing a great/lousy job. 

One thing the debt ceiling has IN SPADES is PARTISAN POLITICS. Or don't you read well? I frequently stand ASTOUNDED what some people count, and not count, as political. SHEESH!

Edited May 19, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 5/19/2023 at 12:09 PM, ldhair said:

And we don't have an alt to come back as.

What "alt"? Or what even IS an "alt"? I've only EVER used this one ID. (Unlike the gentleman from Morningside Heights.)

Edited May 19, 2023 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 5/19/2023 at 1:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think we're discussing a topic without regard to party affiliation.  No Blame Game .  

So it's not a "political" thread anymore than one that says that inflation is too high or the Fed is doing a great/lousy job. 

ALL of those are THOROUGHLY political. Sorry, they just are.

[Henri Charriere]

On 5/19/2023 at 11:06 AM, VKurtB said:

Why are everyone else’s political threads allowed and I get warnings???

Valid question. Moderators, kindly dock me three (3) points for introducing this topic.  

[VKurtB]

On 5/19/2023 at 4:38 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Valid question. Moderators, kindly dock me three (3) points for introducing this topic.  

NO topic is EVER political on here until a member disagrees. Then it magically BECOMES political. An asinine standard.

[ldhair]

If I had started this thread, I would have put it in the cooler forum from the start. It was posted in the coin forum to create problems and it did.

[Henri Charriere]

Gentlemen:

Much as I appreciate the accolades, my interest lies in the latter part of my opening comment:  " -- what impact would it have on you and the coin collecting hobby at large."

All replies are welcome!

[R__Rash]

I left here awhile back, along with some others, because of some very rash, (pun intended) political unrest. 
I would just like to voice this one thing. I lurked ( to use A Ricky opinion) on and off to the site for quite some time and saw that the forums had regathered a semblance of unity when it came to sharing and grading of coins. (Why we are here). There never has been a point of SITE  bias and all are left FREE to their opinion on a coin being observed or a precedent that was possibly being stretched and this is why I wanted to once again participate as much as an old coal miner could. I have learned from all of you, even those that have recently passed and am very grateful.

Having read y’all’s responses to the op’s question, “what-impact would it have on you and the coin collecting hobby at large?” I would say the underlying, unsaid fact is only evident in the dissension. Division from and separation from what y’all are excellent at, has got to be the real answer.

I can only say this, your politics,  your coin collections, your savings, your retirements your lives and families are a mere ripple in the growing pond of bigger fish wanting the whole pond. 

 Enjoy what you have built,  for there is no work or devising in the grave, the place we all end up. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/19/2023 at 5:13 PM, VKurtB said:

One thing the debt ceiling has IN SPADES is PARTISAN POLITICS. Or don't you read well? I frequently stand ASTOUNDED what some people count, and not count, as political. SHEESH!

Well, if the goal is just higher PM prices, our own politics might be an obstacle.  Most coin/bullion collectors/dealers are probably of one particular party but gold did best under the presidency of Jimmy Carter ! 

Though it also did OK under Nixon/Ford.

That guy in the wheelchair, we won't talk about that. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/19/2023 at 9:10 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Gentlemen: Much as I appreciate the accolades, my interest lies in the latter part of my opening comment:  " -- what impact would it have on you and the coin collecting hobby at large." All replies are welcome!

Higher PM prices + More Leisure Time (shutdowns) = More collectors and visitors to NGC Forums

[jtryka]

No different than any of the previous defaults...

[zadok]

On 5/19/2023 at 1:51 PM, Coinbuf said:

Actually it is not an alt, just a name change to try and hide from his QA legacy, or whatever you call his history here.

...sliding from a praetor to a petty thief more like a dismissal than just a change, legacy is a reach id go with record....

[zadok]

On 5/20/2023 at 12:48 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, if the goal is just higher PM prices, our own politics might be an obstacle.  Most coin/bullion collectors/dealers are probably of one particular party but gold did best under the presidency of Jimmy Carter ! 

Though it also did OK under Nixon/Ford.

That guy in the wheelchair, we won't talk about that. 

...now u r catching on...we r where we r because of one person...PM goes up when confidence goes down....

[zadok]

On 5/19/2023 at 9:12 PM, R__Rash said:

I left here awhile back, along with some others, because of some very rash, (pun intended) political unrest. 
I would just like to voice this one thing. I lurked ( to use A Ricky opinion) on and off to the site for quite some time and saw that the forums had regathered a semblance of unity when it came to sharing and grading of coins. (Why we are here). There never has been a point of SITE  bias and all are left FREE to their opinion on a coin being observed or a precedent that was possibly being stretched and this is why I wanted to once again participate as much as an old coal miner could. I have learned from all of you, even those that have recently passed and am very grateful.

Having read y’all’s responses to the op’s question, “what-impact would it have on you and the coin collecting hobby at large?” I would say the underlying, unsaid fact is only evident in the dissension. Division from and separation from what y’all are excellent at, has got to be the real answer.

I can only say this, your politics,  your coin collections, your savings, your retirements your lives and families are a mere ripple in the growing pond of bigger fish wanting the whole pond. 

 Enjoy what you have built,  for there is no work or devising in the grave, the place we all end up. 

...theres a rumor that if u have the number 1 registry set they let u live longer??....

[zadok]

On 5/19/2023 at 11:06 AM, VKurtB said:

Why are everyone else’s political threads allowed and I get warnings???

...not sure but prob a harrisburg/philly thing....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/20/2023 at 6:47 AM, jtryka said:

No different than any of the previous defaults...

Hasn't been a default...yet...unless you consider the abrogation of the Gold Clauses that I read about in AMERICAN DEFAULT.  

[R__Rash]

On 5/20/2023 at 5:56 AM, zadok said:

...theres a rumor that if u have the number 1 registry set they let u live longer??....

I heard a similar rumor but longevity was dependent upon the alloy used in the minting process of the set. ?

Edited May 20, 2023 by R__Rash