Is there a hobby/business need for a technically stable independent authentication and grading company? 1 1

[RWB]

The vision:

Open standards.

Empirical definitions.

Sound and repeatable standards.

Technologically enabled determinations of variable terms such as "proof-like."

Routine elemental analysis and physical measurement of most pre-1838 coins and all pattern pieces.

Separation of measurable and subjective factors.

Return of owner's materials on request.

 

Here's you target; for who would bear the whips and scorns of time,

[zadok]

...simple answer...no....

[Moxie15]

Is this not what the plan was when all this third party grading started?

The problem is sustaining standards and service when the bottom line in involved and graders change. Even with written standards that are that are published and known there are still nearly an infinite variations. The human factor would need to be removed from grading and accepting the grade and that is not even close to possible.  

[World Colonial]

On 12/17/2022 at 8:08 PM, Moxie15 said:

The problem is sustaining standards and service when the bottom line in involved 

Yes, and not just by the TPG's but also by financially motivated buyers.

If it wasn't for the financial aspect, few would care, as no one needs to tell the buyers which coin to like more.

On 12/17/2022 at 8:08 PM, Moxie15 said:

Even with written standards that are that are published and known there are still nearly an infinite variations. The human factor would need to be removed from grading and accepting the grade and that is not even close to possible.  

Grading consistency would be a lot easier if US collecting wouldn't over emphasize what is actually numismatic minutia: one or several points on the Sheldon scale in MS grades, strike designations...

[VKurtB]

So what are we doing here? Are we pre-shilling for the coming JA grading service or what? After all, this IS the coin hobby and the best way to market oneself is to start throwing maximum shade on practitioners of the status quo. Do you have a job offer from John, or what? Marketing consultant maybe? Forgive my maximized cynicism. I’ve been around too long to be surprised. 

[Henri Charriere]

I wish I could joke about this or dismiss it out of hand, but between viewing this topic as a threat to the powers that be (or perhaps something for them to keep a watchful eye on) I am left with the quandary of upgrading an MS-66+ coin to an MS-67.  I explain my problem to someone unfamiliar with psychiatric disorders of this type:

Me:  It's a compilation of coins that's not quite the best yet.

He:   Who cares?  What's the difference between the two?  You yourself say the experts can't even agree.  They base their opinions on subjective factors. Are they licensed professionals?

Me:  I am in too deep to quit.  

He:  What's all this costing you in time and money?

Me:  You don't want to know.

He:  So what happens when you--what's that word you used--

Me:  --upgrade.

He:  --So what do you do when you've upgraded it?

Me:  That's the thing. There's no end to upgrading.  Every time you get to one grade, or half-grade, you have others to upgrade.

He:  How many?

Me:  In my case, sixteen.  It never ends. New and improved examples keep coming up and you have no choice but to get them.

He:  So where does it all end? 

Me:  It doesn't. It can't. There're always more... Maybe until you run out of money?

He:  And what happens when interest evaporates?

Me:  You find something else to do.  It's a sickness.  It's organized hoarding.  You spend your whole life  collecting all the top pops, and then find out no one could care less.  You're left holding the bag.  The musical chairs are over. You're left standing there with bupkis.

He:  Not to be judgmental, but have you ever been seen by a psychiatrist?

Me:  Why, you think that's something?  There are guys that collect mistakes. They glorify flaws and defects.  There's one guy who doesn't just collect cracks on coins. He collects die cracks!  Then there's the guy who collects Proof Die Cracks! You want to know what those are?

He:  Not especially. I guess it's okay until you become a danger to yourself or others...  Then it's GAME OVER!  

 

 

[RWB]

On 12/18/2022 at 1:18 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

...the quandary of upgrading an MS-66+ coin to an MS-67.

Keep sending it in until you get the grade your want. Do they tell you the differences between 66+ and 67 --- I'll wager "No." It's also likely they can't differentiate between the two better than 50% -- mere coin flipping (pun intended).

[RWB]

On 12/17/2022 at 8:08 PM, Moxie15 said:

Is this not what the plan was when all this third party grading started?

That's what I thought when ANA began grading....then they sold out and had their backbone removed. Now it's every centipede for itself.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:47 AM, RWB said:

Keep sending it in until you get the grade your want. Do they tell you the differences between 66+ and 67 --- I'll wager "No." It's also likely they can't differentiate between the two better than 50% -- mere coin flipping (pun intended).

Hopefully with microchips in the holders and the ability to use Hi-Def scans to ID specific coins.....that will soon be greatly reduced. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:47 AM, RWB said:

Keep sending it in until you get the grade your want. Do they tell you the differences between 66+ and 67 --- I'll wager "No." It's also likely they can't differentiate between the two better than 50% -- mere coin flipping (pun intended).

These MS-67 grades routinely pull in over $1,000.  You're probably right, the + may very well supersede professional analysis, except for one small problem.  Somewhere along the way----nobody I am aware of is similarly afflicted----I just can't see myself as going on record that de-slabbing is an incredibly rude sacrilege, and just bring myself to do it. It is a character defect I haven't been able to account for.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:58 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

These MS-67 grades routinely pull in over $1,000.  You're probably right, the + may very well supersede professional analysis, except for one small problem.  Somewhere along the way----nobody I am aware of is similarly afflicted----I just can't see myself as going on record that de-slabbing is an incredibly rude sacrilege, and just bring myself to do it. It is a character defect I haven't been able to account for.

Well, in the other thread on Franklins we have the anomaly of lots of 66+ coins selling for LESS than 66's even without FBL.  

Old-timers may also have a soft-spot for the 67 grade since that is the Superb Gem Level and for most of us the highest grade we can afford (assuming many are available to make it affordable) if we do want a coin in that grade.

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/18/2022 at 10:10 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Hopefully with microchips in the holders and the ability to use Hi-Def scans to ID specific coins.....that will soon be greatly reduced. 

My slabs are pre-NFT.  If I submit them for reholdering solely for a mugshot array, it'll just be my luck the 66+ would remain a 66+, but a 67 routinely submitted would be rediagnosed a 66. Curses!  All this brouhaha over a bunch of pictures! You know what, there are so many things that can go wrong that I am going to re-attempt to take my own pictures.  I have purchased coins based on TPG encapsulations, but I don't believe I would purchase a coin on photo alone, with or without a bright-eyed, bushy-tailed description.

Edited December 18, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Die polishing

[GoldFinger1969]

As AI and scanning technology improves I will bet that it will be possible to scan and grade coins within a few seconds using cameras, lasers, etc.  If you did sufficient volume, the cost-per-coin should be relatively cheap, too. 

We may see a CAC-like service in the future that is 100% computerized and either re-grades coins or affirms them with something like the CAC sticker.

[World Colonial]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:31 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

As AI and scanning technology improves I will bet that it will be possible to scan and grade coins within a few seconds using cameras, lasers, etc.  If you did sufficient volume, the cost-per-coin should be relatively cheap, too. 

We may see a CAC-like service in the future that is 100% computerized and either re-grades coins or affirms them with something like the CAC sticker.

Not under market grading, except for NCLT and coins like most modern proofs.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:44 AM, World Colonial said:

Not under market grading, except for NCLT and coins like most modern proofs.

Imagine being able to calculate the NUMBER of bag marks...the depth of any dents or dings...etc.

It would be like the application of analystics to sports.  Not saying it would be a good thing or even a necessary thing....but it might provide "guard rails" on human graders.

[zadok]

On 12/18/2022 at 11:31 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

As AI and scanning technology improves I will bet that it will be possible to scan and grade coins within a few seconds using cameras, lasers, etc.  If you did sufficient volume, the cost-per-coin should be relatively cheap, too. 

We may see a CAC-like service in the future that is 100% computerized and either re-grades coins or affirms them with something like the CAC sticker.

...n then there will be a CAC2 sticker that evaluates those stickers for prioritization....

[zadok]

On 12/18/2022 at 12:03 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Imagine being able to calculate the NUMBER of bag marks...the depth of any dents or dings...etc.

It would be like the application of analystics to sports.  Not saying it would be a good thing or even a necessary thing....but it might provide "guard rails" on human graders.

...n then there will be the grading service that attests "all coins 100% graded by human eyes..."....

[World Colonial]

On 12/18/2022 at 12:03 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Imagine being able to calculate the NUMBER of bag marks...the depth of any dents or dings...etc.

It would be like the application of analystics to sports.  Not saying it would be a good thing or even a necessary thing....but it might provide "guard rails" on human graders.

The grade on the TPG label is more than that.  Your description is theoretically feasible for technical grading but that's not how TPG works.

You can't program subjective opinions, like "eye appeal" or the dividing line between "market acceptable".

I also presume you are limiting this to US coinage.  The volume doesn't exist for non-US coinage, and they don't apply the current US-centric grading standards consistently either.

[RWB]

The moment subjective concepts are introduced, valid coin grading vanishes. I.e., "one opinion makes all empirical suspect."

This does not reject "eye appeal" or other subjective factors; merely that they are uncontrollable variable and should not be part of describing a coin's condition....

On 12/18/2022 at 12:09 PM, World Colonial said:

...feasible for technical grading but that's not how TPG works.

And, that's the point. The TPGs DON'T work because they introduce subjective variables into the process - which ruins the value of grading.

Some subjective variable can be controlled. "Proof-like" can be defined within a specific technical system, then objectively measured for every coin submitted for this.

Coin condition based on abrasion can be defined as a bin (or 'range') whose deviation from an ideal is knowable, and whose mean is also related to the mean of other bins. (This is what human graders attempt to do, but they have to deal with an unstable and non-linear system. Now that TPGs have destroyed traditional meanings of VF EF and AU, the entire foundation is ready to collapse.)

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/18/2022 at 12:09 PM, World Colonial said:

....I also presume you are limiting this to US coinage.  The volume doesn't exist for non-US coinage, and they don't apply the current US-centric grading standards consistently either.

Doesn't bother me in the least.  I am old; the up and coming whippersnappers are young.  It's their ballgame now however they want to conduct it.

[VKurtB]

On 12/18/2022 at 2:30 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Doesn't bother me in the least.  I am old; the up and coming whippersnappers are young.  It's their ballgame now however they want to conduct it.

They apparently want to conduct it in a way that would affirm the worst of YouTube resident garbage. That will make me WANT TO die. The standards of this hobby should never be up for popular vote. Right is right. At least exhibit judging admits that the purpose of training judges is to make sure that new judges perform their duties like those who have died. 

Edited December 20, 2022 by VKurtB

[World Colonial]

On 12/19/2022 at 7:17 PM, VKurtB said:

They apparently want to conduct it in a way that would affirm the worst of YouTube resident garbage. That will make me WANT TO die. The standards of this hobby should never be up for popular vote. Right is right. 

Unless of course, the actual objective is to inflate the price level as much as possible and as soon as possible all the time.  The price level, that's the (inferred) benchmark for the health of the "hobby" I read almost every time.

(Yes, I know collectors want to get as much of their money back as possible.  If the price level mostly reflects the coin's merits as a collectible instead of an "investment", the financial risk would actually be much lower.)

[Henri Charriere]

Here's my prediction...

In the end, the top contenders will emerge deliriously happy.  (They  comprise no more than 90% of the "investors.")

The traditional hobbyists, who comprise a good 90 % of the hobby who still remember when collecting was a pleasure, will stubbornly pursue their passion for nothing more that the sheer delight of collecting coins, and socializing at conventions with liked-minded people who will occasionally revisit the question as to just how World Colonial knew exactly how things were going to turn out in the future.  

 

Edited December 20, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Routine polishing.

[VKurtB]

I am Convention Man. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/19/2022 at 9:33 PM, World Colonial said:

Unless of course, the actual objective is to inflate the price level as much as possible and as soon as possible all the time.  The price level, that's the (inferred) benchmark for the health of the "hobby" I read almost every time. (Yes, I know collectors want to get as much of their money back as possible.  If the price level mostly reflects the coin's merits as a collectible instead of an "investment", the financial risk would actually be much lower.)

Coin prices, purely numismatic or bullion, are ultimately set by supply and demand.

If more people get into the hobby, prices will rise, all other things equal.  To what extent will depend on how many, how much money they bring to the table, and the relative elasticities for the particular coins they pursue. You would most likely see a big increase in the "starter" coins like pennies, nickels, and Morgans.

I wonder what would happen if you had lots of bullion investors "discover" Saints and/or Liberty's (or other foreign gold coinage) and make a move there ?  Similarly if silver investors decide to not only buy bullion Morgans but more numismatic ones, too.

Once you buy the circulated and investment coins in lower grades, you usually get the "bug" to buy a few of the nicer-looking ones.  How many depends on the person. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Coin prices, purely numismatic or bullion, are ultimately set by supply and demand.

This is no longer true. Fair Market Value is a myth.  Prices at auctions are skewed by fanatics who want or need coins at any price. It takes only one person to up-end a market for no other reason than they can, and many years to recover.  None of the top-tier gold Roosters I seek are rare; they are simply unavailable [presumably at an unextortortionate price.]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If more people get into the hobby, prices will rise, all other things equal.  You would most likely see a big increase in the "starter" coins like pennies, nickels, and Morgans.

The hobby these people are getting into are primarily flawless [in elegant Morgans].  Collectors of LHC are not even collectiong 21st C issues, least of all because they are not real and lack  featureless characteristics. Your average collector today is an introvert consumed by electronic cellphones and gadgets.  They lack the discipline to see a series through. They don't even collect heirloom furniture. They cannot remember a time when coins were collected much less who were on them--or why.

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wonder what would happen if you had lots of bullion investors "discover" Saints and/or Liberty's (or other foreign gold coinage) and make a move there ?  Similarly if silver investors decide to not only buy bullion Morgans but more numismatic ones, too.

Purely speculative.  How long did it take presumably educated people to get involved in crypto?  How quick were they to par with gheir money lacking even fundamental knowledge of the product they were "investing" in? Picture yourself being asked, If you buy this coin today, it will return over 12% interest in a half-century? 

This is the age of credit and instant gratification.

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Once you buy the circulated and investment coins in lower grades, you usually get the "bug" to buy a few of the nicer-looking ones.  How many depends on the person. 

Yeah, if you can find them.

[RWB]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Coin prices, purely numismatic or bullion, are ultimately set by supply and demand.

But -- only if the standards by which coins are judged are reliable and consistent.

[World Colonial]

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If more people get into the hobby, prices will rise, all other things equal.  To what extent will depend on how many, how much money they bring to the table, and the relative elasticities for the particular coins they pursue. You would most likely see a big increase in the "starter" coins like pennies, nickels, and Morgans.

It's been my assumption for a long time that Morgan dollars have substantial financially motivated buying.  In the 80's promotions by "brokers", newsletters, and telemarketers.  Bullion dealers now but probably then too.

Prices are set at the margin, so it doesn't take that many buyers to push most coin prices up.  Concurrently, the cents and nickels implied by your post are both incredibly common and lack relative sufficient collector appeal to sell for much higher prices. 

It's not going to happen because most of the coins in these two denominations have a lower or much lower preference than most others.  If these coins increase in price substantially, one of two things are going to happen:

One: These will become uncompetitive versus other much more preferred coinage.

Two: The entire price level will have to increase across the board.  This can happen, within limits I can explain later if necessary.

On 12/19/2022 at 10:50 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wonder what would happen if you had lots of bullion investors "discover" Saints and/or Liberty's (or other foreign gold coinage) and make a move there ?  Similarly if silver investors decide to not only buy bullion Morgans but more numismatic ones, too.

Well, since the coins are mostly a lot cheaper and except for 20th century US coinage, usually much scarcer, it would send the prices soaring.

It's not going to happen because predominantly financially motivated buyers of mostly generic pre-1933 US gold and Morgan dollars don't buy "non-investment" coinage.

Look at your own collecting profile.  I have never read any post indicating that you have any interest in "collector" coinage.  You've mentioned buying Saints, Morgans, modern US NCLT, and maybe classic commemoratives.  I don't recall you mentioning anything else, and your collecting preferences seem to be typical of these buyers.

There are no absolutes, but the anecdotal evidence seems to support that those whose primary interest is NCLT will overwhelmingly spend comparable or larger amounts on equivalent numismatic coins, like Saints and Morgans.  I've never seen any data on those who focus on pre-1933 gold or Morgans, but I'm quite confident they aren't switching to base metal or smaller silver coinage in any meaningful numbers. 

Two entirely different types of buyers.

[Henri Charriere]

@RWB:

Actually, there is a need for such a concern as you describe in your topic because after a lifetime of being forced-fed tinseltown through rose-colored lenses, it will be a long-needed welcomed spectacle of respected numismatists picketing "business has never been better'-- coin shows with sandwich signs reading,

"BEWARE!  THE END IS NEAR!

Coin collectors will do fine.  Plenty of people collect cars, bikes, boats, homes--and orchids.  But the investor, like it or not, may outwardly exude patience, but there're not happy about it.

I announced my retirement from collecting but a Rooster dump changed my plans.  If I can acquire anywhere from one to three more coins within the next ninety days after a blanket appeal to those who likely may have them, or access to those who do, I'm done.  Anyone interesting in finding out whatever happened to old Rooster meister Quintus will find him feeding the birds in Washington Square Park.  Unlike collectors and investors, I truly don't care if I make or lose a cent on my collections.  For me, it was all about the thrills of victory and the agonies of defeat.  🐓 

[Just Bob]

On 12/19/2022 at 6:17 PM, VKurtB said:

 The standards of this hobby should never be up for popular vote. Right is right. 

And yet, that is exactly what has happened with grading standards. Market grading is accepted because the majority, or at least the vocal minority, wants it.