Full Step Franklin Half 1 1

[Hoghead515]

On 12/17/2022 at 12:17 PM, robec1347 said:

Anyone who collects or has collected Franklins know steps are not a thing. Hopefully anyone who clunks down $50,000 on a coin will do some sort of investigation. With instant knowledge only a fingertip away in the computer age there is little reason for someone to get taken by something as well known and well documented as the Franklin series, especially full bell lines and no such thing as steps. Even if there is a percentage of bell lines present, if that number isn’t 100, it isn’t full and never will be. 

Exactly. Thats what caught my eye in that listing. Thats why I posted it to have a little fun with it. I got a good little laugh out of it when I came across it last night. Just wanted to share it with people who were interested in it last night. Maybe a new collector will see this post and see what kind of sellers are out there. 

[robec1347]

On 12/17/2022 at 9:22 AM, Hoghead515 said:

Exactly. Thats what caught my eye in that listing. Thats why I posted it to have a little fun with it. I got a good little laugh out of it when I came across it last night. Just wanted to share it with people who were interested in it last night. Maybe a new collector will see this post and see what kind of sellers are out there. 

He seems to think his MAC 90% FBL designation is a thing. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/17/2022 at 11:17 AM, robec1347 said:

Anyone who collects or has collected Franklins know steps are not a thing. Hopefully anyone who clunks down $50,000 on a coin will do some sort of investigation. With instant knowledge only a fingertip away in the computer age there is little reason for someone to get taken by something as well known and well documented as the Franklin series, especially full bell lines and no such thing as steps. Even if there is a percentage of bell lines present, if that number isn’t 100, it isn’t full and never will be. 

Welcome to the world of “all I need is a couple of fools” eBaying. There used to be a thing called ethics. Its rotting corpse is all over the culture of the internet. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by VKurtB

[RWB]

On 12/17/2022 at 10:44 AM, Simple Collector said:

So. Which grades are correct? I see a couple also had cac stickers prior to regrade.

That is the fundamental question. With no standard, no consistency, and pervasive slippage, collectors receive only a temporary and unstable opinion for their money.

[VKurtB]

On 12/17/2022 at 12:57 PM, RWB said:

That is the fundamental question. With no standard, no consistency, and pervasive slippage, collectors receive only a temporary and unstable opinion for their money.

You know how I get around that little problem? I’m a collector, not a buyer/seller, or a flipper, or a vest pocket dealer (who wears vests?), or a wheeler dealer. My enjoyment of this hobby depends absolutely ZERO on the state of third party grading at any given time. Only one grader’s opinion matters to me - MINE! If you want to live by the scam, you get to die by the scam. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 10:44 AM, Simple Collector said:

So. Which grades are correct? I see a couple also had cac stickers prior to regrade.

You're asking the wrong guy.   I am not an expert or even knowledgeable about Franklin pricing, just fascinated by the thread itself and what happened to these top registry players.

I just know prices should NOT rise or fall for the same coin by 80-1,000%.  Not unless NEW SUPPLY comes out from hoards, SDBs, slow trickles, etc.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 11:14 AM, numisport said:

One offered right now at David Lawrence for bidding starting at 28K. Do you think it merits MS 65 ? Do you think it merits FBL ?  Given that the coin hasn't sold yet is it fair to comment ?

Is it graded ?  Is it an MS-65 FBL ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 11:59 AM, robec1347 said:

There was also an NGC 66+FBL that sold in May 2020 for $52,800 with the fees. Even in MS63 a 1953-S with FBL sells for over $17,000.  The PCGS MS66 53-S sold this month for $1359 wasn’t FBL.

So clearly....it's the FBL that will determine if you get the Big Buck$$$.

I guess you can have an MS-66 or even MS-67 coin and yet NOT have FBL....you would think that not having FBL would limit you and if you only have 1 or 2 lines of the FBL that maybe you can't get over a 64 or whatever.

It's almost like the FBL is an additional grade being reflected in the $$$ price. 

ROBEC: "One oddity concerns the price difference between the MS66 and MS66+ non FBL. There are 6 of each listed in the GC archive. With the exception of one 66+, which sold for $853, all six 66’s sold for more than every other 66+. Even the lowest priced 66 sold for more than the 2nd highest 66+." 

That's beyond weird ....unless all the 66's have more lines of the Liberty Bell than the 66+ coins.  I've never heard of 66+ costing LESS than 66's from the same TPG unless a coin or two was grossly misgraded or someone bid stupidly. 

But you said ALL 6 coins. 

 

Edited December 17, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 12:00 PM, Hoghead515 said:

I may have missed something myself and was quick to post on it last night. If I did I apoligize and would like to learn the truth.  

Not only did you NOT miss anything, Hog, you actually uncovered what happens at the intersection of hobbyists, grade kinks, price kinks and registry players...combined with Ebay pricing stupidity.

Someone will offer the guy $3,000....they'll negotiate....and the buyer will think he got a great deal at $4,500. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 12:22 PM, Hoghead515 said:

Exactly. Thats what caught my eye in that listing. Thats why I posted it to have a little fun with it. I got a good little laugh out of it when I came across it last night. Just wanted to share it with people who were interested in it last night. Maybe a new collector will see this post and see what kind of sellers are out there. 

We can laugh at it...but someone just starting out in this hobby who THINKS he knows the Franklin price market from years ago can be hurt financially or just emotionally even if they "steal" the coin for $2,000. 

You get burned like that, you don't know who to trust.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 1:57 PM, RWB said:

That is the fundamental question. With no standard, no consistency, and pervasive slippage, collectors receive only a temporary and unstable opinion for their money.

I don't think this is a question of those things, Roger.  This is just pure greed and sleaze.  You almost wish Ebay had an automatic limiter that said you can't ask more than 5-10x the most recent sales price for a comparable coin.

I can live with a guy overcharging on the ask price because the coin has other qualities that maybe the TPG didn't see.  I can live with a coin that is a 66 TPG-wise but the seller says is certainly a 67 (maybe it is, maybe it isn't).  I can live with someone asking $400 for a coin worth $250.

But I can't bridge any gap to a coin worth $300 give-or-take and the seller is asking 5-figures.  Unless it's to find that person I hypothesized above who thinks if he gets it for a few thousand dollars he thinks he got a steal.

It would be a steal.  For the seller !! 

Edited December 17, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 12/17/2022 at 4:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't think this is a question of those things, Roger.  This is just pure greed and sleaze.  You almost wish Ebay had an automatic limiter that said you can't ask more than 5-10x the most recent sales price for a comparable coin.

I can live with a guy overcharging on the ask price because the coin has other qualities that maybe the TPG didn't see.  I can live with a coin that is a 66 TPG-wise but the seller says is certainly a 67 (maybe it is, maybe it isn't).  I can live with someone asking $400 for a coin worth $250.

But I can't bridge any gap to a coin worth $300 give-or-take and the seller is asking 5-figures.  Unless it's to find that person I hypothesized above who thinks if he gets it for a few thousand dollars he thinks he got a steal.

It would be a steal.  For the seller !! 

Are you kidding?

If eBay did that, a huge proportion of their coin listings would be removed. 

The better reason for them to do it is that, by now they must know that many dealers are potentially only using their platform for free advertising with limited interest in actually selling through them.

[robec1347]

On 12/17/2022 at 1:18 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

So clearly....it's the FBL that will determine if you get the Big Buck$$$.

I guess you can have an MS-66 or even MS-67 coin and yet NOT have FBL....you would think that not having FBL would limit you and if you only have 1 or 2 lines of the FBL that maybe you can't get over a 64 or whatever.

It's almost like the FBL is an additional grade being reflected in the $$$ price. 

ROBEC: "One oddity concerns the price difference between the MS66 and MS66+ non FBL. There are 6 of each listed in the GC archive. With the exception of one 66+, which sold for $853, all six 66’s sold for more than every other 66+. Even the lowest priced 66 sold for more than the 2nd highest 66+." 

That's beyond weird ....unless all the 66's have more lines of the Liberty Bell than the 66+ coins.  I've never heard of 66+ costing LESS than 66's from the same TPG unless a coin or two was grossly misgraded or someone bid stupidly. 

But you said ALL 6 coins. 

 

[World Colonial]

On 12/17/2022 at 4:18 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

So clearly....it's the FBL that will determine if you get the Big Buck$$$.

Yes, an above post includes a link to the "gradeflation thread".  There is/are also one or two threads about the sale of some FBL Franklin half for $150K+ (mentioned in one of my prior posts on another thread) which I recall later resold for $40K+. 

I don't remember the specifics and might have one or more details wrong.  If so, someone can correct me.

On 12/17/2022 at 4:18 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I guess you can have an MS-66 or even MS-67 coin and yet NOT have FBL....you would think that not having FBL would limit you and if you only have 1 or 2 lines of the FBL that maybe you can't get over a 64 or whatever.

It's almost like the FBL is an additional grade being reflected in the $$$ price. 

The price structure is common among strike designations in the highest grades, though the premium doesn't seem to be uniform even for equivalent relative scarcity.  There are also very large premiums on some Mercury full band dimes which are also very common but considered "rare".  As I write this post, NGC has graded 19 and PCGS 50 across all grades for the 53-S.  (I understand that PCGS is more lenient on the designation and there are some duplicates, but potentially others not in a holder too.) NGC: 3 in 66; PCGS: 2 in 66 and 1 in 67.

It's a relatively shallow market at this price range for this series.  If you remember my thread covering the relative ranking by price tier from the Heritage archives, between $10K and $50K, Franklin half circulation strikes rank #80 out of 108.

Edited December 17, 2022 by World Colonial

[VKurtB]

Solution to the Problem #1: Keep yo’ dollars in yo’ pocket until YOU PERSONALLY have learned to grade. Not learned which service to send it to. Learned to GRADE.

Solution to the Problem #2: Establish what YOUR PERSONAL standards are for what you want your coins to look like. Not somebody else’s idea of “eye appeal”, YOURS. 

Solution to the Problem #3: Don’t capitulate EVER to “the market”, PERIOD. Stick to your guns, or just skip coins altogether and buy guns. 
 

You’d be amazed how freeing acting that way is. Of course, you may have to give up that butt stupid activity called Registry Sets. You’ll be in a better place if you do. The motto of Registry Sets SHOULD BE, “Ain’t it great to capitulate?” Or, or, or, “Why think? We’ll do that for you?”

Merry Christmas. Peace on earth. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:09 PM, World Colonial said:

There is/are also one or two threads about the sale of some FBL Franklin half for $150K+ (mentioned in one of my prior posts on another thread) which I recall later resold for $40K+. 

Wow, unreal.  That looks like the kind of bubble price spike you see with some "First Strike" coins like the 1995-W ASE which went for $86,000 and now pretty much they go for under $20,000.

On 12/17/2022 at 5:09 PM, World Colonial said:

It's a relatively shallow market at this price range for this series.  If you remember my thread covering the relative ranking by price tier from the Heritage archives, between $10K and $50K, Franklin half circulation strikes rank #80 out of 108.

Now that you mention it, I do.  That was some great work you did.

I guess you figure that the folks who play in that rarified atmosphere of Top Pop Registry coins can afford to lose if the coins suddenly have company and their Top 3 or Top 5 suddenly becomes Top 10 or Top 20.

[World Colonial]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Wow, unreal.  That looks like the kind of bubble price spike you see with some "First Strike" coins like the 1995-W ASE which went for $86,000 and now pretty much they go for under $20,000.

My recollection is that this 95-W sold for this price when there were a handful of 70's in the PCGS data.  Now there are over 500, to my recollection.  

On 12/17/2022 at 5:42 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I guess you figure that the folks who play in that rarified atmosphere of Top Pop Registry coins can afford to lose if the coins suddenly have company and their Top 3 or Top 5 suddenly becomes Top 10 or Top 20.

Yes, I guess losing five or even six figures is worth "winning" for some people.  Power of marketing.

The series has a strong following, but not at higher price points.  That's just a fact.

Between $200 and $500, it ranked #23 as of the date I pulled the data.  Between $500 and $2500 (admittedly a very wide range with likely different buyers), it ranked #50.

For the $38K (or whatever it was) for one sale of this 53-S above in this thread, you could have bought this coin and had plenty of change left over:

1853 $20 Assay Office Twenty Dollar, 900 Thous. MS63 PCGS. CAC. | Lot #4188 | Heritage Auctions (ha.com)

It's a real tough choice, isn't it?  I just can't make up my mind.

[Hoghead515]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:04 PM, robec1347 said:

They are all over Ebay for less than $200 in ms66. Non FBL though. Most are a little over $200 but theres a few very attractive coins in the $175 to $250 range in ms66. A few rough lookers as well. Depending on someones likes. 

Edited December 17, 2022 by Hoghead515

[Hoghead515]

One of these listings is a 53 P but the rest are 53s. Just a couple quick screen shots.  

Edited December 17, 2022 by Hoghead515

[“”]

This is my 1953-S in my Franklin set. It graded as NGC MS66* CAC.

[Hoghead515]

On 12/18/2022 at 2:44 PM, Simple Collector said:

This is my 1953-S in my Franklin set. It graded as NGC MS66* CAC.

Very nice. Thats a sweet one. I could see the bid going up a little higher on this one. Its got alot going for it. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Franklin Gradeflation:  Just wanted to note for the record that I re-read the entire 2015-16 CU Franklin Gradeflation thread ATS a few days ago.  

The reason for the upgrades was largely NOT a re-evaluation of toning.... though there was a question if the toning was actually HIDING other flaws as opposed to generating positive views of the coin and helping the grade.  I believe most of the instances were in the 2010-15 time frame, with a few submissions before then when toning may not have been a plus, in fact, a negative for grading.  But the owners were experienced collectors, savvy about the market in general and very much so about Franklin Halfs, and were not "caught" by a change in how the market perceived toning on the grade.

The big factor, as we stated above, was that coins that were non-FBL were suddenly FBL and that's where the Big $$$ were generated mostly, not the re-grade higher with or without CAC.

Edited December 30, 2022 by GoldFinger1969