OGH, NGC Classic, & CAC Are In High Demand 0

[GoldFinger1969]

PCGS OGH holders....NGC Classic holders (up through mid-to-late 1990's)....and the CAC sticker itself (with JA and CAC going into grading)....all seem to be commanding nice premiums nowadays.

I even see people saying that unless they are certain and the bump in grade is for Big $$$....they want to stay with a classic holder like an OGH rather than go up 1 grade or get a "+."

I know when I splurge on a 1908 NM WF Saint I want it in the original holder since that's part of the allure/story.

Anybody else feel this way ?  Anybody see bidding or interest along these lines ?

[World Colonial]

I've heard the same sentiments.  Seems to me at some point, the better coins in older holders will have been cracked out for regrading and only average quality for the grade will remain.  I don't know if this has happened, yet.

I have a few PCGS coins in old holders but not OGH.  I bought both in 1998 the year I resumed collecting.  One is from South Africa and the other is from Mexico.  I consider both undergraded, but only the second is possibly worth resubmitting.

Edited December 12, 2022 by World Colonial

[zadok]

yep...been this way for several years now, nothing new about it...true some of the ogh been cracked out to get the higher grades but the coins in the ogh selling for the same price maybe even bit more than the re-holdered/upgraded coins...most advanced true collectors know how to grade the coin n not rely on the label...prob 25% of my better coins r still in their ogh, i would never re-holder to just get a better label...stupid to do so....

[GoldFinger1969]

Ironically, I saw a PCGS OGH 1908 NM WF Saint sell for about 20% less than an NGC OWH earlier tonight over at GC. 

I'll post it over in the SAINTS PRICING Thread, let me know your thoughts

[Coinbuf]

On 12/11/2022 at 6:35 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

PCGS OGH holders....NGC Classic holders (up through mid-to-late 1990's)....and the CAC sticker itself (with JA and CAC going into grading)....all seem to be commanding nice premiums nowadays.

I even see people saying that unless they are certain and the bump in grade is for Big $$$....they want to stay with a classic holder like an OGH rather than go up 1 grade or get a "+."

I know when I splurge on a 1908 NM WF Saint I want it in the original holder since that's part of the allure/story.

Anybody else feel this way ?  Anybody see bidding or interest along these lines ?

This has been happening for at least five years now, more prevalent in some series than others.   Gold, as a general overview, seems to have a lower sticker rate than say Morgans.   Perhaps this is due to gold coins having a higher probability rate of being bonked to get a higher grade, maybe some other factors.    People like myself have been chasing old holders before CAC even started, but the prices on old holder CAC'd coins has spiked in the past five years, and really climbed in the past two.   And gold beaned coins are just unbelievable, just this past month I saw a gold bean MS65 Lincoln sell for over $1,600 .   That same coin in MS67+ goes for around $700, but someone was willing to pay twice the price of a 67+, crazy prices for the gold bean in certain situations.

On 12/11/2022 at 7:20 PM, World Colonial said:

I've heard the same sentiments.  Seems to me at some point, the better coins in older holders will have been cracked out for regrading and only average quality for the grade will remain.  I don't know if this has happened, yet.

The key to this is knowing where the coins have been, if we are talking about coins that trade between dealers constantly at shows then yes many of those are the average for the grade coins that are left in old holders which are hyped by dealers.   Also in this group are coins that are legitimate upgrade contenders but simply not valuable enough in the next grade up to warrant the cost to crack and submit.   Coins like MS62 Morgan dollars which might grade MS63 today fall into this group, there are many coins like this which would upgrade but the cost outweighs the benefit to a dealer.   If prices for US coins continue to advance higher as it has the past two years some of those low-grade UNC's will eventually reach a point where it will be profitable to crack and regrade, we might even be getting close to that point for some Morgan dollars.

Where you can still find true undergraded gems are in old time collections that have been off the market for years and years.   Every now and then you can find one of these coins in a dealer's offerings if he just bought it from some estate, but quite often these trade hands between collectors or at auction venues.    Just yesterday I bought one PCGS OGH holder coin that looks to be very nice for the grade from the heir of the collection off market for twenty years or more.

[numisport]

OGH holders are cool but no rattlers for me. Fatties are cool too but are a tight fit in NGC boxes. Reholder is the way knowing they will still have the old number.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:20 AM, Coinbuf said:

This has been happening for at least five years now, more prevalent in some series than others.   

Yes, but for the first time I now see lots of folks saying that unless you can make a killing, it's better financially and from a collecting aesthetic POV to keep the OGH's and remembrances of the way it was.

I didn't see people posting that a few years ago even if some felt it.

[zadok]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:20 AM, Coinbuf said:

This has been happening for at least five years now, more prevalent in some series than others.   Gold, as a general overview, seems to have a lower sticker rate than say Morgans.   Perhaps this is due to gold coins having a higher probability rate of being bonked to get a higher grade, maybe some other factors.    People like myself have been chasing old holders before CAC even started, but the prices on old holder CAC'd coins has spiked in the past five years, and really climbed in the past two.   And gold beaned coins are just unbelievable, just this past month I saw a gold bean MS65 Lincoln sell for over $1,600 .   That same coin in MS67+ goes for around $700, but someone was willing to pay twice the price of a 67+, crazy prices for the gold bean in certain situations.

The key to this is knowing where the coins have been, if we are talking about coins that trade between dealers constantly at shows then yes many of those are the average for the grade coins that are left in old holders which are hyped by dealers.   Also in this group are coins that are legitimate upgrade contenders but simply not valuable enough in the next grade up to warrant the cost to crack and submit.   Coins like MS62 Morgan dollars which might grade MS63 today fall into this group, there are many coins like this which would upgrade but the cost outweighs the benefit to a dealer.   If prices for US coins continue to advance higher as it has the past two years some of those low-grade UNC's will eventually reach a point where it will be profitable to crack and regrade, we might even be getting close to that point for some Morgan dollars.

Where you can still find true undergraded gems are in old time collections that have been off the market for years and years.   Every now and then you can find one of these coins in a dealer's offerings if he just bought it from some estate, but quite often these trade hands between collectors or at auction venues.    Just yesterday I bought one PCGS OGH holder coin that looks to be very nice for the grade from the heir of the collection off market for twenty years or more.

...dead on...5 years maybe a long time to be a spike, possibly its a trend, guess find out which in next 5 years...i like u have lucked into some off the market early cert coins, was fortunate to have been offered a US type set in first gen holders, rattlers n ogh from 1985-6 where the owner had very carefully purchased his coins for strike, original surfaces, eye appeal, the coins were all 63-65 grades n virtually everyone would CAC and/or upgrade, coins have been off the market for 35+ years...having them CAC'd n kept in the first gen cert holders will prove more advantageous than upgrading in my opinion....

[numisport]

On 12/12/2022 at 12:58 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Yes, but for the first time I now see lots of folks saying that unless you can make a killing, it's better financially and from a collecting aesthetic POV to keep the OGH's and remembrances of the way it was.

I didn't see people posting that a few years ago even if some felt it.

Agreed I actually hated the newer pronged inserts but when they ran out of the old inserts I was forced into a reholder binge. Now I appreciate a new clean look as I think the proofs show better in clean new plastic.

[numisport]

On 12/12/2022 at 1:40 PM, numisport said:

Agreed I actually hated the newer pronged inserts but when they ran out of the old inserts I was forced into a reholder binge. Now I appreciate a new clean look as I think the proofs show better in clean new plastic.

And here is another twist to reholdering: Since CAC is no longer stickering you can't get that bean put back on like they used to do [at one time for free]. Although if the number is retained you should still be able to verify CAC as long as they still archive CAC verification.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/12/2022 at 1:40 PM, numisport said:

Agreed I actually hated the newer pronged inserts but when they ran out of the old inserts I was forced into a reholder binge. Now I appreciate a new clean look as I think the proofs show better in clean new plastic.

I love the modern NGC holders....I do NOT like the solid white 100%-encased holder from the 1990's (what I call the OWH).  I like seeing/using prongs to increase visibility.

[World Colonial]

On 12/12/2022 at 11:20 AM, Coinbuf said:

 And gold beaned coins are just unbelievable, just this past month I saw a gold bean MS65 Lincoln sell for over $1,600 .   That same coin in MS67+ goes for around $700, but someone was willing to pay twice the price of a 67+, crazy prices for the gold bean in certain situations.

My inference is that some of the premiums for the older holders is due to the belief that the holder itself is or will become more valuable.  I know some holders are considered rare and are collected.  I wouldn't think that PCGS OGH will ever become rare (except in combination with the coin inside of it) but who knows.

Otherwise, seems it's also speculation on future upgrade potential, though I consider it unlikely an MS-65 would upgrade anytime soon to a high enough grade to recover this premium.

This price behavior also partly reminds me of a prior Coin Week article in which the author recommended the purchase of older (pre-1965) original unopened rolls, not because of the coins in it, but because the roll (the wrapper) was rare.  Made absolutely no sense to me (and I told him so in a comment), but it isn't my money.

[zadok]

On 12/12/2022 at 2:34 PM, World Colonial said:

My inference is that some of the premiums for the older holders is due to the belief that the holder itself is or will become more valuable.  I know some holders are considered rare and are collected.  I wouldn't think that PCGS OGH will ever become rare (except in combination with the coin inside of it) but who knows.

Otherwise, seems it's also speculation on future upgrade potential, though I consider it unlikely an MS-65 would upgrade anytime soon to a high enough grade to recover this premium.

This price behavior also partly reminds me of a prior Coin Week article in which the author recommended the purchase of older (pre-1965) original unopened rolls, not because of the coins in it, but because the roll (the wrapper) was rare.  Made absolutely no sense to me (and I told him so in a comment), but it isn't my money.

...yep...its upgrade potential versus actual upgrade...however, most of the collectors im familiar with who r buying these have no intention of ever upgrading them....

[Coinbuf]

On 12/12/2022 at 10:41 AM, numisport said:

OGH holders are cool but no rattlers for me. Fatties are cool too but are a tight fit in NGC boxes. Reholder is the way knowing they will still have the old number.

The cert number has no value, if you convert an old solid (soapbar) holder into a new prong holder it is very possible that you lost not only the reholder cost but any actual or perceived value from the old holder, an old cert number is meaningless without the old holder.   I encourage this type of behavior for other collectors as every old holder that gets cracked just makes those in my collection that much more valuable. 

On 12/12/2022 at 10:58 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Yes, but for the first time I now see lots of folks saying that unless you can make a killing, it's better financially and from a collecting aesthetic POV to keep the OGH's and remembrances of the way it was.

I didn't see people posting that a few years ago even if some felt it.

I can only say that my experience is different than yours; I can say for sure that I have been saying and have heard many others saying this for quite a while now.

On 12/12/2022 at 12:34 PM, World Colonial said:

My inference is that some of the premiums for the older holders is due to the belief that the holder itself is or will become more valuable.  I know some holders are considered rare and are collected.  I wouldn't think that PCGS OGH will ever become rare (except in combination with the coin inside of it) but who knows.

Otherwise, seems it's also speculation on future upgrade potential, though I consider it unlikely an MS-65 would upgrade anytime soon to a high enough grade to recover this premium.

This price behavior also partly reminds me of a prior Coin Week article in which the author recommended the purchase of older (pre-1965) original unopened rolls, not because of the coins in it, but because the roll (the wrapper) was rare.  Made absolutely no sense to me (and I told him so in a comment), but it isn't my money.

Some of the old holders are already quite rare especially some of the early flip type of holders like the David Hall flips from before he was involved with PCGS.   But I do agree that it will take a very long time before most of the more common old holders like the PCGS rattler (the second gen rattler), OGH, and the latter gen 4 and 5 soapbar NGC holders will become rare.   But I do expect it will happen at some point, as the prices continue to rise it will at some time become financially viable for dealers and collectors to crack out those low MS common date coins and try for that one point upgrade.   In fact we are already on the cusp of that time, many of the old holder Morgan dollars in my old holder collection were purchased when these were selling for $25 or $30 each, today in the next grade up I could sell them for $80 or more if I choose to crack and have graded.   And there are collectors like numisport above to whom the preference for the new holder outweighs any financial consideration.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/12/2022 at 5:58 PM, Coinbuf said:

I can only say that my experience is different than yours; I can say for sure that I have been saying and have heard many others saying this for quite a while now.

I think the savvy, 1st-mover types probably said that years ago -- and you probably know that kind of collector. 

The more casual, less-dedicated collector who doesn't live and breathe coins 24/7.....I think for them it's a new thing. 

[VKurtB]

On 12/12/2022 at 4:58 PM, Coinbuf said:

The cert number has no value, if you convert an old solid (soapbar) holder into a new prong holder it is very possible that you lost not only the reholder cost but any actual or perceived value from the old holder, an old cert number is meaningless without the old holder.   I encourage this type of behavior for other collectors as every old holder that gets cracked just makes those in my collection that much more valuable. 

I can only say that my experience is different than yours; I can say for sure that I have been saying and have heard many others saying this for quite a while now.

Some of the old holders are already quite rare especially some of the early flip type of holders like the David Hall flips from before he was involved with PCGS.   But I do agree that it will take a very long time before most of the more common old holders like the PCGS rattler (the second gen rattler), OGH, and the latter gen 4 and 5 soapbar NGC holders will become rare.   But I do expect it will happen at some point, as the prices continue to rise it will at some time become financially viable for dealers and collectors to crack out those low MS common date coins and try for that one point upgrade.   In fact we are already on the cusp of that time, many of the old holder Morgan dollars in my old holder collection were purchased when these were selling for $25 or $30 each, today in the next grade up I could sell them for $80 or more if I choose to crack and have graded.   And there are collectors like numisport above to whom the preference for the new holder outweighs any financial consideration.

“Buy the coin, not the holder.”

 

So …. rules for thee but not for me? Why don’t we just fess up and admit it’s ALL about the plastic now and to heck with old bromides?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/12/2022 at 8:42 PM, VKurtB said:

“Buy the coin, not the holder.”  So …. rules for thee but not for me? Why don’t we just fess up and admit it’s ALL about the plastic now and to heck with old bromides?

I wonder about that....check out my comparision in another thread about the 2 coins graded MS-66....1908 WF NM Saints.  It's in the Official Saints Gold Price Thread.

The NGC sold for 20% more than the PCGS coin, although I've been told that the wear/rub I saw might be imaginary.  If so, that just adds to the mystery.

Edited December 13, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 12/12/2022 at 7:59 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I wonder about that....check out my comparision in another thread about the 2 coins graded MS-66....1908 WF NM Saints.  It's in the Official Saints Gold Price Thread.

The NGC sold for 20% more than the PCGS coin, although I've been told that the wear/rub I saw might be imaginary.  If so, that just adds to the mystery.

I am never surprised personally when an NGC coin outperforms a PCGS. I understand what the averages are, and I understand what kinds of coins are tougher where. I also understand the cult-like aspect of PCGS preference. PCGS dealers have an incentive to “pump up” PCGS grading. 

[Hoghead515]

It may be a coincidence but the coins I own in the old green holders are very nice for the grade. Seems they were very conservative about grading the ones I have. I only own a small handful of them so it may just be those few. But for the people whos been in the hobby a few years. Were they more picky on them in the earlier years of grading? 

Edited December 13, 2022 by Hoghead515

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:22 PM, Hoghead515 said:

It may be a coincidence but the coins I own in the old green holders are very nice for the grade. Seems they were very conservative about grading the ones I have. I only own a small handful of them so it may just be those few. But for the people whos been in the hobby a few years. Were they more picky on them in the earlier years of grading? 

Initially they engaged in strict technical grading.  Later on, especially in the early-2000's, market grading took over.

 

[VKurtB]

On 12/12/2022 at 9:06 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Initially they engaged in strict technical grading.  Later on, especially in the early-2000's, market grading took over.

 

I don’t believe either of the top two TPGS ever did technical grading. Maybe the original ANA-owned version of ANACS did, but only that one. By the time Amos Press took over ANACS, it was all market grading. NGC and PCGS always were market grading. The biggest issue from the early days of our “big two” is that some grades didn’t exist then, but now do. 

Edited December 13, 2022 by VKurtB

[rrantique]

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/13/2022 at 4:12 AM, rrantique said:

Great coin, this is the one holder that I personally do not like.  Maybe I'm just used to prongs giving a more open-look but I find a coin totally encased in the plastic to be a turn-off.  Can't see the edges, either.

[Coinbuf]

On 12/12/2022 at 7:22 PM, Hoghead515 said:

It may be a coincidence but the coins I own in the old green holders are very nice for the grade. Seems they were very conservative about grading the ones I have. I only own a small handful of them so it may just be those few. But for the people whos been in the hobby a few years. Were they more picky on them in the earlier years of grading? 

The two major services did grade more conservatively when they began operations than the current sky is the limit market grading.   Back then MS66 was a huge grade and not handed out too often, now MS66 is almost a disappointment for many coin series.   Gradeflation is very real, when I first started out buying Lincolns for my registry set Buying an MS67 was very expensive and they were not very plentiful so many of the earlier easy common dates I started with MS66 coins.   A few years ago, before the recent hyper inflation, I could buy all of those coins in MS67 and even 67+ (for a few) at the same price levels I was buying MS66's twenty years ago.   I would be very underwater on those MS66's I started with except that inflation has brought most of them back to close to the levels I bought at.

[ldhair]

I'm not a fan of changing holders unless the old holder is damages or the coin needs conservation. If the coin is happy, I don't care to take the risk. Shipping and the grading process just expose the coin to possible new problems. When the time comes to sell, my opinion may change.

[Just Bob]

On 12/13/2022 at 10:22 AM, Coinbuf said:

The two major services did grade more conservatively when they began operations than the current sky is the limit market grading.   Back then MS66 was a huge grade and not handed out too often, now MS66 is almost a disappointment for many coin series.   Gradeflation is very real...

This is true. When PCGS first started, an MS65 was a true gem. I remember ask price for 1880-S Morgans in MS65 being $800 and up. Back then, an MS67 was a wondercoin.

I read an interview with someone who worked at NGC when they first started. He stated that they intentionally graded strict, and the prices back then reflected that strictness. NGC coins consistently bid higher than PCGS. That is why a coin in an original black holder is a guaranteed upgrade or gold sticker.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 9:54 AM, Just Bob said:

This is true. When PCGS first started, an MS65 was a true gem. I remember ask price for 1880-S Morgans in MS65 being $800 and up. Back then, an MS67 was a wondercoin.  I read an interview with someone who worked at NGC when they first started. He stated that they intentionally graded strict, and the prices back then reflected that strictness. NGC coins consistently bid higher than PCGS. That is why a coin in an original black holder is a guaranteed upgrade or gold sticker.

Two things....first, it didn't help the grading strictness that right after the 2 major TPGs started operating in 1986-87...you had a HUGE coin bubble that took prices up 2x or 3x on the belief that Wall Street $$$ would be flowing into coins.  The greater usage of electronic quote machines for dealers compared to 10 years earlier during the gold bubble didn't help, either.

Second....it's possible NGC coins were bid higher than PCGS during the late-1980's or early-1990's.  Whether that was true for all/most coins or just select series, I don't know -- I wan't into coins at the time.  John Albanese jumped to NGC so maybe the strict period was associated with him (anybody know when he left NGC ?).

I believe it was the early-to-mid 2000's when the PCGS premium came about.  It may have been influenced by the premiums that Trophy Collectors were willing to pay for certain coins in select series (i.e., Saints) and this filtered down to other coins/series.  Or....it may have been because NGC really was overgrading lots of coins.   Or it may have been because NGC graded a few coins or series loosely and PERCEPTION took over.   Again, I didn't follow this too closely but I read that this is when technical grading morphed into market grading.  Maybe NGC took it more liberally than PCGS -- dunno.

I will say this:  most of the "gradeflation" threads I read NOW and in recent years seem to focus on PCGS.  Maybe there were some legacy coins graded by NGC that were loosely graded but I don't think that's a problem now.

Let's face it...if some people, especially Trophy Collectors with Big $$$, decide they WANT one TPG over another (for whatever reason, legit or not)....then prices will be higher for that TPG and it filters down to other coins and series.  

Rational or not.  

Edited December 14, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

It IS true, and it is NOT rational. Rationality doesn’t matter. Belief is all that is required. “Mass psychosis.” When a group of people decide to engage in a mass psychosis, such as, ohhh, just to pick one at random, “authorized PCGS dealers”, that psychosis at least temporarily becomes a market reality. You can’t fix stupid. 
 

Remember, I have “crossed” to NGC coins from PCGS, small bar ANACS, ICG, and even NNP, a horrible basement slabber, and never once has NGC graded even one coin one point lower or higher, for the sample size of my submissions. I’m no dealer - just a 59 year collector. 
 

If gradeflation exists, I surely can’t find personal evidence for it. 

Edited December 14, 2022 by VKurtB

[Coinbuf]

On 12/14/2022 at 8:28 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Two things....first, it didn't help the grading strictness that right after the 2 major TPGs started operating in 1986-87...you had a HUGE coin bubble that took prices up 2x or 3x on the belief that Wall Street $$$ would be flowing into coins.  The greater usage of electronic quote machines for dealers compared to 10 years earlier during the gold bubble didn't help, either.

Second....it's possible NGC coins were bid higher than PCGS during the late-1980's or early-1990's.  Whether that was true for all/most coins or just select series, I don't know -- I wan't into coins at the time.  John Albanese jumped to NGC so maybe the strict period was associated with him (anybody know when he left NGC ?).

I believe it was the early-to-mid 2000's when the PCGS premium came about.  It may have been influenced by the premiums that Trophy Collectors were willing to pay for certain coins in select series (i.e., Saints) and this filtered down to other coins/series.  Or....it may have been because NGC really was overgrading lots of coins.   Or it may have been because NGC graded a few coins or series loosely and PERCEPTION took over.   Again, I didn't follow this too closely but I read that this is when technical grading morphed into market grading.  Maybe NGC took it more liberally than PCGS -- dunno.

I will say this:  most of the "gradeflation" threads I read NOW and in recent years seem to focus on PCGS.  Maybe there were some legacy coins graded by NGC that were loosely graded but I don't think that's a problem now.

Let's face it...if some people, especially Trophy Collectors with Big $$$, decide they WANT one TPG over another (for whatever reason, legit or not)....then prices will be higher for that TPG and it filters down to other coins and series.  

Rational or not.  

Here is the condensed version, NGC was the premier service PCGS was a close second.   David Hall took over at PCGS and used his network of dealer friends to promote and hype the PCGS brand to their customers, many of whom are/were the whales in the hobby.   As the preference began to shift NGC shot themselves in the foot and began a loose grading period, in what I assume was an attempt to win customers with high grades.   Today that preference still lingers with many of the old guard dealers and collectors, time will tell if the new CACG will be the flavor of the month or actually become the market leader and displace the big two over the next few years.

The reality is that both TPG's have had periods of loose and tight grading (both real and perceived) and both firms grade very similarly for most coin series.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 3:01 PM, VKurtB said:

If gradeflation exists, I surely can’t find personal evidence for it. 

It's there, trust me.  And there are lots of posts here (and maybe threads) that talk about it.

 

Edited December 14, 2022 by GoldFinger1969