The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[VKurtB]

On 11/21/2023 at 8:04 PM, Henri Charriere said:

FWIW... Gold spot is down today, Nov. 21, 2023, as of 20:52 hours, EST.

oz.   $2,008.30

gm.  $64.57

K.      $64,568.34

 

 

Gold is a PURELY speculative play. There are no fundamentals for gold. I realize some, including some on this site, regard gold as the counter-play for inflation or a play against excess money supply, but the facts and history do NOT BEAR THAT OUT. Gold ALWAYS overcorrects, in BOTH directions.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/21/2023 at 9:22 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold is a PURELY speculative play. There are no fundamentals for gold. I realize some, including some on this site, regard gold as the counter-play for inflation or a play against excess money supply, but the facts and history do NOT BEAR THAT OUT. Gold ALWAYS overcorrects, in BOTH directions.

For me, since I like collectiing gold coins (why couldn't I choose a LESS expensive hobby ?  ) it all boils down to SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Supply is pretty constant and small on a CAGR basis....but demand grows at a nice pace especially in burgeoning countries like China, India, and other countries that have huge numbers of newly-created middle-class consumers. 

[Just Bob]

On 11/12/2023 at 8:54 AM, zadok said:

...im thinking that along those same lines that lead mite see a price jump as well....

I got that, even if no one else did. 

[zadok]

On 11/22/2023 at 11:03 AM, Just Bob said:

I got that, even if no one else did. 

[Henri Charriere]

Blast from the Past!

🐓:  Is it just me or is this more than a private joke?

Q.A.:  Pablo Escobar. Early 1990's. I believe the quote was "Plata O Plomo," (Silver or Lead) I suggest we pretend we didn't "wink-wink" read that on a coin Forum.  😉 

---

Edited November 29, 2023 by Henri Charriere
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[Fenntucky Mike]

$2,055 this morning, close to the all time high set back in 2020.

[Henri Charriere]

I like the warm feeling that comes when you wake up in the morning and without doing anything at all your modest precious metals hoard, accumulation, rounds, bars and /or coin collection is worth more and your net worth, on paper, has grown.

Here's my prediction for the new year as regarding silver and gold:  I believe a new support level has been reached and precious metals, with but a few corrections now and again, will begin their slow inexorable climb to higher ground.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Henri Charriere
Routine die-polishing; correct misspelling.

[zadok]

On 11/29/2023 at 8:40 AM, Henri Charriere said:

I like the warm feeling that comes when you wake up in the morning and without doing anything at all your modest precious metals hoard, accumulation, rounds, bars and /or coin collection is worth more and your net worth, on paper, has grown.

Here's my prediction for the new year as regarding silver and gold:  I believe a new support level has been reached and precious metals, with but a few corrections now and again, will begin their slow inexorable climb to higher ground has begun.

...u should just concentrate on the waking up part....

[zadok]

On 11/29/2023 at 7:53 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

$2,055 this morning, close to the all time high set back in 2020.

...yep should help offset all those pallets ill have to buy....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/29/2023 at 7:53 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

$2,055 this morning, close to the all time high set back in 2020.

It's a triple top we are trying to breach....about $2,075 (intraday and closing different levels)....right on the door. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/29/2023 at 8:40 AM, Henri Charriere said:

Here's my prediction for the new year as regarding silver and gold:  I believe a new support level has been reached and precious metals, with but a few corrections now and again, will begin their slow inexorable climb to higher ground has begun.

I've said it for years:  I didn't know where the next $300 move in gold was, up or down....but the next $1,000 is UP !!! 

[GoldFinger1969]

New ATH intraday for the COMEX contract, not sure about spot but it's either there or short by a few bucks.

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[Zebo]

Nice move up!

[GoldFinger1969]

Central Bank buying is increasing.  Many smaller-to-medium sized CBs know they can sell it for more to their domestic populace as per-capita gold consumption increases as I have outlined here before.

 

Central Bank Gold Binge Is Even Bigger Than Previously Thought

• World Gold Council raises its estimate for purchases
• Expansion of bullion reserves has underpinned prices this year

[powermad5000]

Just saw this on the news this past week.

[GoldFinger1969]

Looks like a small short had to cover on that day, Power....$2,152 intraday (intra-night  ).  A short-term blow-off top apparently.

Still....holding above $2,000 should keep the trend going.

[GoldFinger1969]

BARRON'S article in "Up & Down Wall Street" the lead section of the weekly.

The author notes:

• Gold has lagged over all kinds of time periods since 1800 vs. stocks or bonds.
• Gold is only 15% above the inflation-adjusted high from American Civil War during the 1860's.
• Gold has returned only 0.3% since 1800 in real terms.....3% for 10-year government bonds....7% for stocks.
• Gold returned 56% annually from 1976-80 and 20.6% a year from 2001-11.
• Gold @ 8.3% annually last 20 years vs. 9.7% for S&P 500. Gold @ 4.1% vs. S&P 500 at 11% last 40 years. 5.6% since Dec 1975 vs. 12% for stocks.
• $2,400 is doable according to technical analysis
• Global CBs on target for record buying: 1,180 metric tons for 2023.
• $2,400 feasible on the charts.
• $3,000 feasible if we can close above $2,100 on the monthly chart by end-December.
• Inflation-adjusted high is $3,333 in early-1980.

The entire piece is worth reading. Mentions Indian buying of oil from OPEC, global conflicts, gold vs. Treasury yields, and other tidbits.

BTW, BARRON'S is must-reading for me each weekend and has been since the 1980's. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[World Colonial]

On 11/5/2023 at 10:25 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Second, earnings are what you have to use.  There are discrepancies at times with GAAP or Operating EPS, but by and large they have gone up 7% a year since 1960 and provided real growth that outstrips inflation and any other asset class.  Free cash flow also backs this up.  Earnings are real and when they go up, stocks go up

No, it isn't, and my comment isn't contingent upon GAAP though it's a weakness of using it.

When I make the comments I make on any financial subject, I'm not just "making it up".  That's what most people do, including what most people read in the financial press, writing nonsensical claptrap.  

It's what I told you in my last post.  Earnings are an accounting number to 99% of all supposed "investors".  It's of no direct relevance to them outside the dividend because that's the only return they actually get from the company 99%+ of the time.  This growth you are talking about isn't what you imply either, because the price of the "piece of paper" most "investors" actually buy isn't contingent upon what you are claiming either.  The price of any stock certificate (what they actually bought) is almost entirely contingent upon psychological perception, not the supposed "fundamentals" which never bought or sold a single share of stock, or anything else for that matter.

As for Hussman, yes, I know his track has been terrible, because we are in a mania.  The one you deny exists.  It's not practical for me to write a book here but you can ask me any question you want on any financial subject, and I can give you or anyone else a detailed explanation for any claim I make.

So yes, by all means if you want to start another thread on this subject, go ahead and do it.

[World Colonial]

On 11/21/2023 at 9:22 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold is a PURELY speculative play. There are no fundamentals for gold. I realize some, including some on this site, regard gold as the counter-play for inflation or a play against excess money supply, but the facts and history do NOT BEAR THAT OUT. Gold ALWAYS overcorrects, in BOTH directions.

With all supposed "investors", there is no difference between "investing" and speculation.  I'm not singling you out with this comment either, because this is what practically everyone believes.

In the current global asset mania, calling speculation "investment" is mostly (not entirely, as a low proportion know it consciously) a rationalization from ignorance to convince yourself that paying what are disproportionately absurd or inflated prices isn’t taking high or unprecedented risk but somehow magically becomes low risk or “prudent”.

I know everyone has been told they are “investing”, but if I ask anyone for an actual difference between “investing” (mostly in tradeable markets) and speculation, the only answer they can give me is the holding period which is completely arbitrary. 

You've heard the saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is one.  99%+ of stock “investing” (or other asset buying) is indistinguishable from speculation, so what does that tell everyone? (It's attempting to generate a currency profit from buying and selling without producing anything.)

The inferred supposed distinction between "investing" and speculation is "market timing".  Everyone is a market timer, whether they know it or not.  It's literally unavoidable, unless the person lives in an alternate parallel universe where there is no time.  This doesn't mean that everyone has to be a "trader", it just means that there is only good timing and bad timing. 

[World Colonial]

On 11/22/2023 at 10:27 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

For me, since I like collectiing gold coins (why couldn't I choose a LESS expensive hobby ?  ) it all boils down to SUPPLY and DEMAND.

Supply is pretty constant and small on a CAGR basis....but demand grows at a nice pace especially in burgeoning countries like China, India, and other countries that have huge numbers of newly-created middle-class consumers. 

Prices are set by the marginal buyer.  It doesn't take that many of them to move the price of anything up or down substantially.

That's your best argument.

This is evident in the price of any publicly tradeable asset.  On any given day, the price change of the biggest moving stocks usually occurs with a (very) low fraction of outstanding shares changing ownership.

[VKurtB]

On 12/22/2023 at 3:58 PM, World Colonial said:

With all supposed "investors", there is no difference between "investing" and speculation.  I'm not singling you out with this comment either, because this is what practically everyone believes.

In the current global asset mania, calling speculation "investment" is mostly (not entirely, as a low proportion know it consciously) a rationalization from ignorance to convince yourself that paying what are disproportionately absurd or inflated prices isn’t taking high or unprecedented risk but somehow magically becomes low risk or “prudent”.

I know everyone has been told they are “investing”, but if I ask anyone for an actual difference between “investing” (mostly in tradeable markets) and speculation, the only answer they can give me is the holding period which is completely arbitrary. 

You've heard the saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is one.  99%+ of stock “investing” (or other asset buying) is indistinguishable from speculation, so what does that tell everyone? (It's attempting to generate a currency profit from buying and selling without producing anything.)

The inferred supposed distinction between "investing" and speculation is "market timing".  Everyone is a market timer, whether they know it or not.  It's literally unavoidable, unless the person lives in an alternate parallel universe where there is no time.  This doesn't mean that everyone has to be a "trader", it just means that there is only good timing and bad timing. 

Do my dividend yields mean nothing? At my age, I do favor dividend paying stocks in the account I manage personally. With a week to go, it LOOKS LIKE my best performing stock will be Truist Bank. Great dividend. 

Edited December 23, 2023 by VKurtB

[USAuPzlBxBob]

Unfortunately for me, my Truist position was acquired in February 2020, just before it fell off a cliff.  Fired my Financial Advisor 10 months later, but kept their diversification.

Truist has a Schwab Raking of D, by the way.  My shares have a mountain to climb still before they begin appearing as "green" in the Gain/Loss column.  Alas, alack, and Alaska.

However, at approximately the same time as the Truist was acquired, I was placed into AVGO.  Fantastic dividend and 250% Gain for the same time period.

[VKurtB]

On 12/23/2023 at 4:31 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

Unfortunately for me, my Truist position was acquired in February 2020, just before it fell off a cliff.  Fired my Financial Advisor 10 months later, but kept their diversification.

Truist has a Schwab Raking of D, by the way.  My shares have a mountain to climb still before they begin appearing as "green" in the Gain/Loss column.  Alas, alack, and Alaska.

However, at approximately the same time as the Truist was acquired, I was placed into AVGO.  Fantastic dividend and 250% Gain for the same time period.

Mine are way green, mostly off the last 60 days.

[USAuPzlBxBob]

"Like roulette, one more turn…"

Walter Huston won Best Supporting Actor for his role in this movie.

[VKurtB]

On 12/24/2023 at 9:30 AM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

"Like roulette, one more turn…"

Walter Huston won Best Supporting Actor for his role in this movie.

But did the Mexicans need badges?

[USAuPzlBxBob]

On 12/24/2023 at 5:45 PM, VKurtB said:

But did the Mexicans need badges?

No, but they did a number on Bogey at the end.

He knew he was in trouble when one of the underlings close to the ground kept lifting up the bottom of his pants to get a better look at his shoes, wanting them for himself.
The cool thing about embedded YouTubes on the Chat Boards here is no commercials!

[zadok]

On 12/22/2023 at 4:58 PM, World Colonial said:

With all supposed "investors", there is no difference between "investing" and speculation.  I'm not singling you out with this comment either, because this is what practically everyone believes.

In the current global asset mania, calling speculation "investment" is mostly (not entirely, as a low proportion know it consciously) a rationalization from ignorance to convince yourself that paying what are disproportionately absurd or inflated prices isn’t taking high or unprecedented risk but somehow magically becomes low risk or “prudent”.

I know everyone has been told they are “investing”, but if I ask anyone for an actual difference between “investing” (mostly in tradeable markets) and speculation, the only answer they can give me is the holding period which is completely arbitrary. 

You've heard the saying if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it is one.  99%+ of stock “investing” (or other asset buying) is indistinguishable from speculation, so what does that tell everyone? (It's attempting to generate a currency profit from buying and selling without producing anything.)

The inferred supposed distinction between "investing" and speculation is "market timing".  Everyone is a market timer, whether they know it or not.  It's literally unavoidable, unless the person lives in an alternate parallel universe where there is no time.  This doesn't mean that everyone has to be a "trader", it just means that there is only good timing and bad timing. 

...the secret is too invest in the speculation....buy the next fad before everyone else decides to....

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/25/2023 at 12:43 PM, zadok said:

...the secret is too invest in the speculation....buy the next fad before everyone else decides to....

...the "next fad" isn't one until it becomes one -- and when it becomes one, it's too late...

[zadok]

On 12/25/2023 at 1:17 PM, Henri Charriere said:

...the "next fad" isn't one until it becomes one -- and when it becomes one, it's too late...

...hence operative word "before"....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/23/2023 at 11:38 AM, VKurtB said:

Do my dividend yields mean nothing? At my age, I do favor dividend paying stocks in the account I manage personally. With a week to go, it LOOKS LIKE my best performing stock will be Truist Bank. Great dividend. 

I plugged that stock and other dividend-paying bank stocks a few months ago on some other forums.  Sometimes a high dividend can signify trouble but in TFC's case the stock price got cut in half and a 4% yield became 8%. 

I'd love to have a Financial Markets or Stock Market Thread where I can post thoughts and actual sell-side research.  But we can't attach PDFs here even though I've requested it over the years.

Maybe if some of you also bang the doors. 

Edited December 26, 2023 by GoldFinger1969