The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[zadok]

On 1/10/2024 at 1:22 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It matters because people THINK it matters.  Most relevant to currency traders.  Ever hear of Robert Prechter ?  Had the pulse of the stock market in the 1980's like few ever did with some esoteric TA called Elliot Wave Analysis.

...much like QA who uses the TWA theory...(tinfoil wave analysis)....

[VKurtB]

On 1/10/2024 at 12:22 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

It matters because people THINK it matters.  Most relevant to currency traders.  Ever hear of Robert Prechter ?  Had the pulse of the stock market in the 1980's like few ever did with some esoteric TA called Elliot Wave Analysis.

Elliot Wave or I-d-I-o-t Wave?

[VKurtB]

On 1/9/2024 at 2:09 PM, VKurtB said:

That would assume that drawing lines on charts was not complete and utter voodoo, which it is. Yes, I said it. Technical analysis is bunk and voodoo. Every time ANY Wall Street firm does technical analysis on ANYTHING, they lose my respect. 

My financial advisor NEVER advises me with technical analysis. It’s 100% fundamental analysis all the time. Profits, growth, management, - you know, all that real stuff. My main portfolio is very heavy on fixed income stuff. My bigger growth oriented equity account contains companies whose products I use and love, and those I personally would never use, such as Microsoft. Other people use them, and that’s what matters. Then I have my small account, and that’s my “if I use it, I invest in it” account. It’s only about a $20K account. 

Edited January 10 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 1/10/2024 at 5:09 PM, VKurtB said:

My financial advisor NEVER advises me with technical analysis. It’s 100% fundamental analysis all the time. Profits, growth, management, - you know, all that real stuff. My main portfolio is very heavy on fixed income stuff. My bigger growth oriented equity account contains companies whose products I use and love, and those I personally would never use, such as Microsoft. Other people use them, and that’s what matters. Then I have my small account, and that’s my “if I use it, I invest in it” account. It’s only about a $20K account. 

...i guess one question that mite have some bearing, does ur financial advisor use technical analysis to arrive at the fundamental analysis that he provides u?...personally, i do not have a financial advisor n make all of my own decisions more or less based on my own fundamental analysis...besides i, like many investors, would not understand most of the technical analysis anyway...i too have a small side portfolio of things i just like to own that r fundamentally flawed investing wise but give me satisfaction....

[GoldFinger1969]

Technical analysis is more for trading (short-term) and identifying tops and bottoms.  You can use it for intermediate and long-term forecasting but that's where fundamentals come into play.

OTOH, you can't use fundementals for short-term trading.  As Keynes said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." 

 

[Henri Charriere]

Q.A.  I tell you I don't understand a word these guys are saying. I keep my end simple and I don't care who knows about it. My broker is Ricky, and when Ricky speaks... 🤣

(Where's GF1969?  How 'bout runnin' that E. F. Hutton commercial for old time's sake.)     

[VKurtB]

On 1/10/2024 at 4:33 PM, zadok said:

...i guess one question that mite have some bearing, does ur financial advisor use technical analysis to arrive at the fundamental analysis that he provides u?...personally, i do not have a financial advisor n make all of my own decisions more or less based on my own fundamental analysis...besides i, like many investors, would not understand most of the technical analysis anyway...i too have a small side portfolio of things i just like to own that r fundamentally flawed investing wise but give me satisfaction....

I had a formal college course in Investments taught by Will Lyons at Franklin & Marshall college in the mid-1970’s. Professor Lyons taught me to completely ignore technical analysis and put everything into fundamentals. I don’t do rapid trading, and I probably never will. If I buy ANY security, my intent is to hold it for over a year. Sometimes things happen that make that unwise, but I never ever ever buy anything with the intent to sell it inside of a year. Investing is about fundamentals. Day trading is about technical analysis.

Edited January 11 by VKurtB

[zadok]

On 1/10/2024 at 10:15 PM, VKurtB said:

I had a formal college course in Investments taught by Will Lyons at Franklin & Marshall college in the mid-1970’s. Professor Lyons taught me to completely ignore technical analysis and put everything into fundamentals. I don’t do rapid trading, and I probably never will. If I buy ANY security, my intent is to hold it for over a year. Sometimes things happen that make that unwise, but I never ever ever buy anything with the intent to sell it inside of a year. Investing is about fundamentals. Day trading is about technical analysis.

...the original question was does ur financial advisor use technical analysis to give u the fundamental analysis, now the question is did u financial advisor take formal or informal courses in his education?...by the way, what is a formal college course?...all investments or financial decisions should be based on fundamentals, the buffet approach...is this thing worth the price?, am i getting my money's worth?...i never invest in anything that is iffy...crypto is a good example, fundamentally it doesnt exist...ur one year metric is a sound approach as well, i use a 3 year metric but im slow....

[VKurtB]

On 1/11/2024 at 2:45 PM, zadok said:

...the original question was does ur financial advisor use technical analysis to give u the fundamental analysis, now the question is did u financial advisor take formal or informal courses in his education?...by the way, what is a formal college course?...all investments or financial decisions should be based on fundamentals, the buffet approach...is this thing worth the price?, am i getting my money's worth?...i never invest in anything that is iffy...crypto is a good example, fundamentally it doesnt exist...ur one year metric is a sound approach as well, i use a 3 year metric but im slow....

In the curriculum in the economics department at F&M College, just one of the required courses was “Investments”, taught by Professor Will Lyons, a tenured professor. It covered the various types of securities, and derivatives, and the various means of analyzing them. It also covered the ethics, and specifically the lack thereof, of the broker profession. Professor Lyons had an extremely low opinion of stockbrokers. He believed they were rather universally snakes in the grass, willing to throw their clients under the bus to profit personally for their own accounts. I must say that based on the stockbrokers I knew through my political activities, the description was accurate. 

Edited January 11 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

JP Morgan's Commodities Strategist Natasha Kaneva, in BARRON'S a few issues back, is looking for $2,300 for gold in 2024 and $30 silver. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 1/14/2024 at 10:36 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

JP Morgan's Commodities Strategist Natasha Kaneva, in BARRON'S a few issues back, is looking for $2,300 for gold in 2024 and $30 silver. 

This sounds about right but we've got 50 more weeks to go.  As the broadcaster on WINS (1010) used to day, "a lot can happen in a little while."

[Just Bob]

On 1/14/2024 at 9:36 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

JP Morgan's Commodities Strategist Natasha Kaneva, in BARRON'S a few issues back, is looking for $2,300 for gold in 2024 and $30 silver. 

I imagine everyone who buys gold and silver as an investment is looking for that. Whether they will see it is debatable.

[VKurtB]

On 1/16/2024 at 8:58 AM, Just Bob said:

I imagine everyone who buys gold and silver as an investment is looking for that. Whether they will see it is debatable.

As long as there are no consequences for incorrect predictions, we can expect to keep getting what we’ve gotten.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/16/2024 at 9:58 AM, Just Bob said:

I imagine everyone who buys gold and silver as an investment is looking for that. Whether they will see it is debatable.

But I think most of us aren't looking at gold or silver as "investments" -- we enjoy the hobby but do keep track of the underlying PM prices because many of the coins we like/buy are directly tied to the metals.

If somebody I knew said they wanted to buy an MS-65 Saint (common) for one of their grandkids and said they had the $$$ now but might also just get it for them in 10 or 15 years, I would probably tell them that the coin will cost alot more then since it tends to move along with gold bullion.  Not so with more numismatic Saints or coins.

[Treeman]

After reading through all these comments, I think my best bet is to dump everything, and invest in hot air and fertilizer....

[Henri Charriere]

On 1/10/2024 at 1:26 PM, zadok said:

...much like QA who uses the TWA theory...(tinfoil wave analysis)....

still trying to interpret... ok, here we go... something about central banks... china... russia... buying in gold up 16% over last year.... stock market at its highest levels... okay, what with houthis on the loose... goods costing vastly more taking the longer route around africa... hamas/hostages... lebanon... a lot o' countries in turmoil.... too close to call with the stock mkt doing well and the world in an uproar.

FINAL ANALYSIS:  GOLD TO DWELL A BIT LONGER RIGHT WHERE IT IS. (I don't see $2300 in the cards this year.) SILVER?  $30 ain't in the cards this year.

...say, anybody know if this twa comes with rabbit ears?.. too many tall bldgs... too little clear reception.  🤣

[GoldFinger1969]

New All-Time Closing High Today:   Looks like we will close decisively above $2,100/ounce.    Dragged up by BitCoin, for sure.

I continue to think we are headed for $3,000 in a few years.  If you have a budget for gold coins, grab some now unless you want to do most/all of your buying ALOT higher ! 

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  I notice you've been a lot nicer to me lately.  Rising gold prices wouldn't have something to do with it, would it?

Q.A.  No. Of course not!  🤣   

[GoldFinger1969]

I also have a new initiation report on the gold miners and indirectly gold the metal by Jefferies.  If anybody wants to see it, since I can't post it here, then PM me your email and I'll shoot it over. 

[GoldFinger1969]

Above $2,150 on Wednesday. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/7/2024 at 12:09 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Above $2,150 on Wednesday. 

If this is a portent of the future, the time to buy is now.  As the mantra goes, buy low, sell high. Thanks for the update!

[J P M]

On 3/7/2024 at 2:18 AM, Henri Charriere said:

If this is a portent of the future, the time to buy is now.  As the mantra goes, buy low, sell high. Thanks for the update!

It is too high to buy now.

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/7/2024 at 9:43 AM, J P M said:

It is too high to buy now.

Is it?  I have a number of reasons for believing it is not, but I put it to the membership to weigh in with their views in a new topic:  Is Gold too High to Buy Now?"  It will be interesting to hear what others have to say.

Edited March 7 by Henri Charriere
Rewording

[Coinbuf]

On 3/4/2024 at 1:48 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

New All-Time Closing High Today:   Looks like we will close decisively above $2,100/ounce.    Dragged up by BitCoin, for sure.

I continue to think we are headed for $3,000 in a few years.  If you have a budget for gold coins, grab some now unless you want to do most/all of your buying ALOT higher ! 

I think the central bank buying has much more to do with this short term rapid rise in spot prices than bitcoin.

Edited March 7 by Coinbuf

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/7/2024 at 9:43 AM, J P M said:

It is too high to buy now.

I think you shouldn't "load up" -- but if someone came into some cash I would absolutely buy some gold or gold coins here...if it pulls back, add more.

What if gold catches a major bid or a short has to cover and we race to $2,500 ?  At least then you have some exposure at this level.

If you think the next $1,000 is UP....then unless you want to wait for a decline to $2,800 from $3,000....you should buy some here. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 3/7/2024 at 12:03 PM, Coinbuf said:

I think the central bank buying has much more to do with this short term rapid rise in spot prices than bitcoin.

Not to mention tensions between nations, secret wars, proxy armies and the rest we are forbidden to expound upon.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/7/2024 at 12:03 PM, Coinbuf said:

I think the central bank buying has much more to do with this short term rapid rise in spot prices than bitcoin.

IS it rapid ?  I don't think so.  I think central bank or panic buying would have gold up $100 or $150 in a single day.  Not a few $10-$25 days.

Central Banks are NOT selling, that's the big thing.  Then add in "Peak Gold" and declining production, regulatory strangling, and resource nationalization.

You have stagnant (new) supply...no big sellers of existing stockpiles...and rising demand that pales in comparision to BitCoin or crypto.

If not for BTC/crypto...we'd be at $2,500 at least and MAYBE $3,000 already.

[GoldFinger1969]

Check out stagnating supply.  Remember....the decisions on production were made when gold was rising strongly from 2009-12.

Also note that the price has been RISING even as ETF inflows have turned negative.  This means it is (1) central bank buying or (2) retail buying.

It's Double Eagle buying, folks !! 

[Coinbuf]

On 3/7/2024 at 11:05 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

IS it rapid ?  I don't think so.  I think central bank or panic buying would have gold up $100 or $150 in a single day.  Not a few $10-$25 days.

Central Banks are NOT selling, that's the big thing.  Then add in "Peak Gold" and declining production, regulatory strangling, and resource nationalization.

You have stagnant (new) supply...no big sellers of existing stockpiles...and rising demand that pales in comparision to BitCoin or crypto.

If not for BTC/crypto...we'd be at $2,500 at least and MAYBE $3,000 already.

Yes $2,150 up from a very stagnant price range of between $1,975 - $2,025 over the past few months in a matter of a few days is a rapid rise in my book.   The recent threat to liquidate Russin assets and turn those monies over to Ukraine has the central banks in China, Turkey, and a few others moving money out of dollars and into gold as a hedge against a similar threat.    None of this makes any real technical sense as the dollar remains strong and typically we see an inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, much like we have been seeing as gold had retreated below $2,000 very recently against a strong dollar.   So I personally think this is a bubble that will deflate (at least some) once tensions in the middle east subside, now when that might happen is very difficult to know.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/7/2024 at 3:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

Yes $2,150 up from a very stagnant price range of between $1,975 - $2,025 over the past few months in a matter of a few days is a rapid rise in my book.   

It's nothing.  Check out the move in Bitcoin or crypto over that period.  Check out bond spreads.  Check out NVDA or SCMI.

We're up 5% in a few months.  Those assets are up 5% a day 1 or 2 days a week...for months !! 

On 3/7/2024 at 3:34 PM, Coinbuf said:

The recent threat to liquidate Russin assets and turn those monies over to Ukraine has the central banks in China, Turkey, and a few others moving money out of dollars and into gold as a hedge against a similar threat.    None of this makes any real technical sense as the dollar remains strong and typically we see an inverse relationship between the dollar and gold, much like we have been seeing as gold had retreated below $2,000 very recently against a strong dollar.   So I personally think this is a bubble that will deflate (at least some) once tensions in the middle east subside, now when that might happen is very difficult to know.

Authoritarian despots might fear capital controls -- their countries usually employ them themselves -- but most countries are democracies and this doesn't affect them.

The  ETF graph above shows that it is NOT institutional buyers driving the move.  It is retail buyers, The Little Guys, who are buying gold en masse.  They're buying coins, bars, whatever.  Maybe some Chinese/Indian early-2024 buying, too (that's ending I believe).

No doubt people are reading the 86 page Saint-Gaudens thread on this forum and mopping up common and generic Saints. 

That's the ticket, as Jon Lovitz' character used to say !! 

Edited March 8 by GoldFinger1969