The Case For $3,000 Gold 1 1

[RWB]

Do you mean that "Yukon Gold" potatoes contain real gold -- just like the "Golden dollars/"

[GoldFinger1969]

RBC's year-end gold valuation charts, commentary, ratios, etc.  Interesting....gold's average price is up 8 straight years in a row ! 

EDIT:  I can't post a PDF.....Mods, can you add that format option ?

Edited January 4, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

On 1/3/2023 at 9:10 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

EDIT:  I can't post a PDF.....Mods, can you add that format option ?

1. Open the pdf.

2. On the menu select Save As, then select the drop-down menu on right (default is PDF, but the others appear when the item is clicked)

3. Scroll down to JPG and select that option.

4. A properties option button (lower left) allows you to set color/B&W and image resolution.Make your selections.

5. Click Save. The PDF will be "unwrapped" and saved as a JPG which you can then crop and post to message boards.

If there are no Save As options, then you are using the free PDF viewer. Go to the internet and look for "PDF to JPG converter, free."

Edited January 4, 2023 by RWB

[RWB]

Aside note: A PDF (Portable Document Format) file is a wrapper that contains the description of a document. This includes text, vector graphics, images, fonts, etc. and all other information required to display the content. This works very well in most situations but creates problems when implemented directly in "chat room" type software. The most that is usually done is to allow a PDF link which is opened in a separate application.

[GoldFinger1969]

Back Over $1,900....

RWB, thanks for the help I just haven't had the time to do the conversion.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 1/13/2023 at 12:23 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Back Over $1,900....

Ugh. 

I did manage to pick up a few small gold pieces a few months back when gold dipped under $1,700. At this point I'm not going to worry about, if I see a piece I like or that fits one of my collecting areas I'll just pick it up if priced fairly and I have enough mad money tucked away. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/13/2023 at 6:28 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Ugh.   I did manage to pick up a few small gold pieces a few months back when gold dipped under $1,700. At this point I'm not going to worry about, if I see a piece I like or that fits one of my collecting areas I'll just pick it up if priced fairly and I have enough mad money tucked away. 

Look, I don't think one should REALLY care if you buy gold at $1,700 or $1,900 or even $2,000 an ounce.

You DON'T want to be buying or have to be buying (chasing) when it crosses $3,000...whether that is next year or 2025 or whenever. 

Gold had a HUGE rise from 2000-11 when it went up 6-fold.  It's been basing and burning off the excess since.  It could take a few more months before a big up-move...or a few years....heck, MAYBE even a decade.  I think it will take less than that but it's possible.

When gold does move again, it will probably move very fast.

Edited January 13, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[zadok]

On 1/13/2023 at 12:07 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Look, I don't think one should REALLY care if you buy gold at $1,700 or $1,900 or even $2,000 an ounce.

You DON'T want to be buying or have to be buying (chasing) when it crosses $3,000...whether that is next year or 2025 or whenever. 

Gold had a HUGE rise from 2000-11 when it went up 6-fold.  It's been basing and burning off the excess since.  It could take a few more months before a big up-move...or a few years....heck, MAYBE even a decade.  I think it will take less than that but it's possible.

When gold does move again, it will probably move very fast.

...velociraptor fast of just t-rex fast?....

[VKurtB]

Gold has a very usual pattern. It goes up extremely fast and then usually erodes slowly over a long period of time. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/13/2023 at 1:24 PM, zadok said:

...velociraptor fast of just t-rex fast?....

Indominus Rex fast !! 

[zadok]

On 1/13/2023 at 2:38 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold has a very usual pattern. It goes up extremely fast and then usually erodes slowly over a long period of time. 

...sort of like eating beans i guess...

[VKurtB]

On 1/13/2023 at 3:18 PM, zadok said:

...sort of like eating beans i guess...

Like numismatic books and diapers: both have short useful lives and are full of the same stuff. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/13/2023 at 2:38 PM, VKurtB said:

Gold has a very usual pattern. It goes up extremely fast and then usually erodes slowly over a long period of time. 

We really only have 2 time periods of big gold moves to study:  1973-80, following decades of price-fixing.....and 2000-11 after a 20 year time-out.  Gold didn't even move during the 1989-90 Coin Bubble.

So after a 20-fold rise in gold's price in 8 years, it paused/declined 20 years.  After a 6-fold rise in 11 years, it has paused over a decade and counting.   It moved in a 25-35% band in the 1980's and 1990's; it has moved in a 25-35% band since 2011. 

Gold will move when it does but IMO it has definitely waited long enough so that we can have lift-off at any time.

[VKurtB]

On 1/13/2023 at 5:16 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

We really only have 2 time periods of big gold moves to study:  1973-80, following decades of price-fixing.....and 2000-11 after a 20 year time-out.  Gold didn't even move during the 1989-90 Coin Bubble.

So after a 20-fold rise in gold's price in 8 years, it paused/declined 20 years.  After a 6-fold rise in 11 years, it has paused over a decade and counting.   It moved in a 25-35% band in the 1980's and 1990's; it has moved in a 25-35% band since 2011. 

Gold will move when it does but IMO it has definitely waited long enough so that we can have lift-off at any time.

You should have been at my August 2011 ANA convention talk telling everyone that gold was extremely risky from that point. The collapse literally began two trading days later. It showed that the money supply and gold prices are/were utterly independent of each other - no relation whatsoever. 

Edited January 13, 2023 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/13/2023 at 6:21 PM, VKurtB said:

You should have been at my August 2011 ANA convention talk telling everyone that gold was extremely risky from that point. The collapse literally began two trading days later. It showed that the money supply and gold prices are/were utterly independent of each other - no relation whatsoever. 

I read your posts about that, nice call ! 

I think after a 6-fold run-up in 11 years smart investors should have been cautious.  But I'm also sure that the carnival barkers were predicting $2,000 and then on to $2,500 or $3,000...probably extrapolating (incorrectly) from the once-in-a-lifetime 1970's experience.

[VKurtB]

On 1/13/2023 at 5:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I read your posts about that, nice call ! 

I think after a 6-fold run-up in 11 years smart investors should have been cautious.  But I'm also sure that the carnival barkers were predicting $2,000 and then on to $2,500 or $3,000...probably extrapolating (incorrectly) from the once-in-a-lifetime 1970's experience.

They were indeed, including literally EVERY dealer in the major show circuit. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/13/2023 at 6:50 PM, VKurtB said:

They were indeed, including literally EVERY dealer in the major show circuit. 

I don't know why (mostly) numismatic coin dealers would have been making bullion price predictions.  Idiotic.

Dealers to me would only be able to gauge numismatic demand for coins, like Saints or Morgans, if they are seeing RETAIL buying.  They aren't watching the gold market 24/7 -- and even those who do are mostly guessing. 

[VKurtB]

On 1/13/2023 at 11:07 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I don't know why (mostly) numismatic coin dealers would have been making bullion price predictions.  Idiotic.

Dealers to me would only be able to gauge numismatic demand for coins, like Saints or Morgans, if they are seeing RETAIL buying.  They aren't watching the gold market 24/7 -- and even those who do are mostly guessing. 

For numismatic dealers, the next move in gold is ABSOLUTELY ALWAYS “to the moon”. It’s part of their DNA. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/14/2023 at 12:24 AM, VKurtB said:

For numismatic dealers, the next move in gold is ABSOLUTELY ALWAYS “to the moon”. It’s part of their DNA. 

I'll bet they were OLDER dealers who were active in the 1970's.  And it's just a "matter of time" before we get another huge increase in gold prices because of all the money being printed or inflation that is being suppressed or government spending that is out of control....etc....etc....etc.  .

You probably remember the spectacular forecasters of that time -- like Howard Ruff of "Ruff Times" -- who still were being sought out decades later even after gold had ceased to be a good investment.

Gold having many years of flat or declining prices is actually GOOD FOR US because we can get coins that we want over time at good prices.

Edited January 14, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[olympicsos]

On 1/14/2023 at 1:38 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'll bet they were OLDER dealers who were active in the 1970's.  And it's just a "matter of time" before we get another huge increase in gold prices because of all the money being printed or inflation that is being suppressed or government spending that is out of control....etc....etc....etc.  .

You probably remember the spectacular forecasters of that time -- like Howard Ruff of "Ruff Times" -- who still were being sought out decades later even after gold had ceased to be a good investment.

Gold having many years of flat or declining prices is actually GOOD FOR US because we can get coins that we want over time at good prices.

The time to buy Saints was before the pandemic.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 1/14/2023 at 10:28 AM, olympicsos said:

The time to buy Saints was before the pandemic.

I did....at FUN 2020.  A few weeks before the pandemic really hit. 

But...you could have bought Saints or gold for YEARS in the 1990's and up to about 2002 for an average of $350/oz.  

NOBODY wanted gold....remember the Internet Mania and gold falling to $280 ?  I bought some gold for clients back then...they claimed I was costing them money....a year or two later they were thanking me....5 years later they were ecstatic.

I believe even MS-65 Saints in 1999-2000 were only about $500-$600 or so.  I bet you could get MS-66's for under $1,000.

[World Colonial]

On 1/14/2023 at 11:34 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

NOBODY wanted gold....remember the Internet Mania and gold falling to $280 ? 

At a major low, most people are worried about losing money, as opposed to the mostly FOMO which has existed in different asset classes over the last 20+ years.

I bought some gold cheap, but not much.  Same reason plus I didn't have the funds.  One was the Australia $200 commemoratives under the assumption it wouldn't be worth less than FV.  Not sure these were legal tender though.  Bought 10 for about $140 each, about melt and same as the FX rate.  I also bought an 1858 ANACS AU-58 France 100F for $410, which was slightly more than melt.  All since sold.

[GoldFinger1969]

This is a very informative chart. 

When you look at the burgeoning middle-class demand for gold in China, with India poised for a decade of 5-7% GDP growth and an exploding middle class....with Asian demand and even African and South/Central American demand risiing.....I can EASILY make a case for multiple levers of rising demand with limited supply growth (if any)...reduced Central Bank sales....and the same underlying supply/demand imbalances that caused oil to skyrocket in the 1970's or even bounce back bigtime from negative prices in April 2020 in only 2 years to over $125/bbl.

With tens of millions of middle-class buyers of gold, I can easily make a case for 2,500 - 10,000 new tons of new demand coming in each year.  Even if the amount initially and periodically purchased is off...even if many don't want gold but financial assets or crypto...these are countries and regions with cultural attachments to gold that will not be easily as broken with many as it would with a 25-year old with a smarpthone and financial App.

I look back on $325 gold 20-25 years ago and wonder why I didn't buy more.  And I wasn't even aware of Saints and Double Eagles (or even Eagles) at the time. Common Saints at $450.....MS-66's for under $2,000 and even MS-67's probably cost under $5,000.

I wonder if we'll say the same thing in a few years or maybe a decade about gold at $2,000 an ounce ? 

Edited January 17, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

It's funny.....we've had a small runup in gold prices the last few months (though we backed off the last few weeks)....and apparently all the gold coin sellers (including Saints and Liberty Heads) are front-running what they think will be a straight-line run to $2,500/oz. 

I see folks complaining about "bubble" pricing in gold coins and I'm like, unreal...what would they say about a doubling or tripling in gold coin prices in 18 months with gold FLAT in price ?? 

[GoldFinger1969]

Well, The Case for $2,000 Gold is now a reality. 

$2,003 up $57 today.

Trust me....a few years down the road....those of you wanting gold coins are going to look back on these last few years as The Good Old Days and reminisce about what it was like to get a mint state Saint for about $2,000 or less than half what they will cost in a few years. 

[World Colonial]

Yes, looks like gold is breaking out.  I still expect it to be cheaper later but "later' will take longer.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:06 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, looks like gold is breaking out.  I still expect it to be cheaper later but "later' will take longer.

Why cheaper and why "later" ?  

Long-term, demand is up as 2 billion people escape from poverty to the middle-class by 2035...and another billion move from subsistence living to low-income and middle-class.

Edited March 24, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[J P M]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:10 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Why cheaper and why "later" ?  

Long-term, demand is up as 2 billion people escape from poverty to the middle-class by 2035...and another billion move from subistence living to low-income and middle-class.

I don't think there is a middle-class any more 

[World Colonial]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:10 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Why cheaper and why "later" ?  

Long-term, demand is up as 2 billion people escape from poverty to the middle-class by 2035...and another billion move from subistence living to low-income and middle-class.

Gold is not historically cheap.  It's expensive.  It's primarily a reflection of loose credit conditions and yes, currency mismanagement.

But look at the relative value, especially versus other tangible goods.  Outside of temporary bubble conditions (like 1980 and 2011), I don't believe it's going to maintain such inflated relative value.  In 2011, the median priced home was worth less than 100oz. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 3/23/2023 at 6:06 PM, World Colonial said:

Gold is not historically cheap.  It's expensive.  It's primarily a reflection of loose credit conditions and yes, currency mismanagement.

It's at the levels it was at first in 2011-12.  Back then, it was up 6-fold in 10 years -- now THAT was overvalued. 

Basically, we have traded sideways for a decade.  I hardly call that overvalued, though withour ZIRP the opportunity cost has increased.

I would not "load up" on gold or PMs relative to bonds (OK) or stocks (need to go 15% lower) but it's going higher from here over the next 5-7 years. 

The next $1,000 is UP !!!