NGCX 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 2:41 PM, gmarguli said:

Everything was going up as no one knew what the firms would be buying. And I mean everything. I wish someone could show a Bluesheet from this time. The number of + vs - would blow your mind. 

I've gotten archived articles and pieces from friends who were dealers back then. 

My friend was buying Saints for < $1,000 right after the 1987 Stock Market Crash.  He said 2 years later he was selling them for about $3,000 on average without any real big jump in gold (I'll have to check the gold price pre-Crash, post-Crash, and mid-1989).

Figures we weren't in touch back then (no internet, email, cell phones, etc.) and I missed out on a good thing ! 

Edited November 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 3:38 PM, USAuPzlBxBob said:

I miss Luis Rukeyser and seeing him each Friday on Wall $treet Week… his opening monologue.  Used to live at my grandparents, room and board free (my grandmother: "you save your money"), helping them get by in their elder years.  Religiously, on every Friday night, PBS was watched just for this show.  Also, my grandmother would take her transistor radio with her to each sitting-room during the day, and listen to 1010 WINS news radio to get intraday financial updates.  This experience wore off on me, and gave me the mindset to invest, and to save, and be aware of the markets.  All good!

Nice !!  Yes, I miss Louis Rukeyser and WSW, too.  Never forgot Marty Zweig before and right after the 1987 Market Crash.  Worked for some people who appeared on the show; with a little luck I may have gotten on, too.  Oh well....

I attended a roast for Rukeyser back in 1989 down in Ft. Lauderdale at an investment conference.  All the newsletter writers were there -- they were the ones who moved the market, plus FNN -- and it was great to schmooze with many of them  Some are no longer with us, others left the business or winded their business down.

One of the attendees was James Dines, a gold bug, who is also a Saint-Gaudens collector whose named coins appear from time-to-time.

Edited November 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Sandon]

   It's obvious to me that NGC chose the date 1982 as the earliest date for "NGCX" grading because that was the first year of modern commemoratives that would routinely qualify for high grades.  No or almost no non-proof 1982 Lincoln cents will qualify for the "perfect [under low magnification]10" grade that I'm sure the hucksters who will sell NGCX holdered pieces will promote to the numismatically ignorant public as some sort of investment.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:35 PM, Sandon said:

   It's obvious to me that NGC chose the date 1982 as the earliest date for "NGCX" grading because that was the first year of modern commemoratives that would routinely qualify for high grades.  No or almost no non-proof 1982 Lincoln cents will qualify for the "perfect [under low magnification]10" grade that I'm sure the hucksters who will sell NGCX holdered pieces will promote to the numismatically ignorant public as some sort of investment.

Makes sense. Commemoratives had a GREAT decade in the 1980's....I think the only sector to do really well -- and they were a major contributing factor in the Coin Bubble of 1989.  I think many commemoratives lost 80-85% over the decades.  

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/26/2022 at 12:39 PM, zadok said:

...wheres Huntley-Brinkley when u need them?...

Q.A.:  I don't believe gold was ever discussed. The only memorable line I recall hearing, going way back, was "Jane, you ignorant s---."  

🐓:  That wasn't Huntley-Brinkley!  That was Jane Curtin and Dan Ackroyd on SNL's Point-Counterpoint!  And you call yourself an investor!...        

***

Judging by the names of qualifying dealers expected to traffick in NGCX slabs, it is clear the target audience in the new year will be younger collectors new to the hobby.  I am congenitally ill-equipped and, quite frankly, disinclined from re-calibrating my horse-and-buggy era mind to accommodate a newfangled grading system.  And I don't collect any of that other stuff either. Time to get down to basics. My sole New Year's resolution will be to divest myself of all collectibles save for the one's displayed in my east coast-west coast set registries.

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/16/2022 at 6:48 PM, Sandon said:

....  I have a better idea.  Let's get rid of numbers altogether and return to adjectival grading, with additional adjectives or letters for surface preservation, strike, and color or toning....

There is only one thing that stands in the way of re-implementing a tried and true concept...  F-I-N-A-N-C-I-A-L-I-Z-A-T-I-O-N.

No vaccine developed to date has been found to be effective against this insidious scourge.

[VKurtB]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:00 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Makes sense. Commemoratives had a GREAT decade in the 1980's....I think the only sector to do really well -- and they were a major contributing factor in the Coin Bubble of 1989.  I think many commemoratives lost 80-85% over the decades.  

It’s all about conning newbies into thinking graded modern commemoratives and bullion coins are collectibles. Hint: they’re not, so wholesale dealers need to market the bejabbers out of them to move the stuff they all overbought when they were new. 
 

When I hold a seashell up to my ear I swear I can hear Lee Minshull begging NGC to do this. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by VKurtB

[EagleRJO]

On 11/26/2022 at 9:34 PM, VKurtB said:

... thinking graded modern commemoratives and bullion coins are collectibles. Hint: they’re not ...

I disagree.  Of course they are collectible, you just have to realize exactly what they are and not waste your money putting them in slabs.

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:27 AM, World Colonial said:

Presume its Non-Sufficient Funds.

Even coin collectors ocassionally bounced checks, before banks granted deatbeats overdraft protection.

[I resent the inference that I, moi, as it were, am a "deadbeat."  As one occasionally distracted by an unwieldy portfolio in stocks, bonds, real estate--an 1894-O Barber dime (PO-1) not a few zinc cents and wooden nickels in splended condition, to boot, appraised in aggregate at mythical millions, I believe it perfectly understandable that as an alleged collector, I may inadvertently overdraw my account, from time to time, now and again.]  

Edited November 28, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Accuracy.

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/26/2022 at 9:37 PM, EagleRJO said:

I disagree.  Of course they are collectible, you just have to realize exactly what they are and not waste your money putting them in slabs.

Unfortunately, the newer generations coming up, who appear incapable of expressing a complete thought with correct spelling and appropriate punctuation in a non-run-on sentence----preferring Twitter to tweet their thoughts via abbreviated sound bites----would require an influencer to make that decision for them.  Maybe these New and Improved X-slabs can be marketed as the next Pet Rock, endorsed by [you fill in the name].  

Edited November 28, 2022 by Quintus Arrius
Routine die polishing: omit a word.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 9:37 PM, EagleRJO said:

I disagree.  Of course they are collectible, you just have to realize exactly what they are and not waste your money putting them in slabs.

Or realize that any premiums you pay -- numismatic or holder/grade -- are a sunk cost for the enjoyment of the coin by the buyer.  Like a piece of art, just assume it'll lose value over time and you won't be disappointed.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/26/2022 at 11:39 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Maybe these New and Improved X-slabs can be marketed as the next Pet Rock, endorsed by [you fill in the name].

Maybe Mark Sinclair aka Vin Diesel drifting around a few sharp turns and then spinning out perfectly into a parking spot in front of Bob's Coin & Stamp shop.  Vin strides into the shop ... then cut to him coming out quickly holding up a slab which when zoomed in on is a fancy-pants-new-and-improved NGC "X" style 10.0 slabbed $20 bullion coin he bought for $120 with the price sticker still proudly displayed on the slab.  Then cut to him drifting away around a few more tight turns.

Is that what they think coin collecting is all about for the "Gen-X" people, who really should be collecting coins not labels. 

Edited November 27, 2022 by EagleRJO

[EagleRJO]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:35 PM, Sandon said:

 It's obvious to me that NGC chose the date 1982 as the earliest date for "NGCX" grading because that was the first year of modern commemoratives that would routinely qualify for high grades.

Might be right.  But I read a PCG$ article about "what is considered a modern coin" which doesn't even mention 1982 ... https://www.pcgs.com/news/what-is-considered-a-modern-coin

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/27/2022 at 4:31 PM, EagleRJO said:

Might be right.  But I read a PCG$ article about "what is considered a modern coin" which doesn't even mention 1982 ... https://www.pcgs.com/news/what-is-considered-a-modern-coin

Interesting article, but where exactly, does that leave the Lincoln Head cent?

[World Colonial]

On 11/27/2022 at 4:39 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Interesting article, but where exactly, does that leave the Lincoln Head cent?

Where it belongs, in someone's change jar, 2x2 flip, or coin album.

[World Colonial]

On 11/26/2022 at 6:35 PM, Sandon said:

   It's obvious to me that NGC chose the date 1982 as the earliest date for "NGCX" grading because that was the first year of modern commemoratives that would routinely qualify for high grades.  No or almost no non-proof 1982 Lincoln cents will qualify for the "perfect [under low magnification]10" grade that I'm sure the hucksters who will sell NGCX holdered pieces will promote to the numismatically ignorant public as some sort of investment.

This is the only reason that makes sense, modern US commemoratives and maybe world counterparts if eligible.  I provided the same reason earlier in the thread.

It's been a long time since I've watched "Coin Country" or similar shows on cable TV (about 15 years).  I used to see US modern proof sets offered, not in a TPG holder.  I can see Ike dollars since it's not viewed as a circulating coin.  Maybe proof Kennedy halves since the public doesn't see it often either.

I don't see any marketing of any coin design which the public sees or has any reasonable probability of seeing in circulation because to them, that's what it is, circulating change.  Enough of them aren't going to pay a premium for it, regardless of what number is on the TPG label.

[EagleRJO]

On 11/27/2022 at 4:39 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Interesting article, but where exactly, does that leave the Lincoln Head cent?

Idk  ... maybe in a change jar as WC mentioned after you check for the unicorn small date copper . 

But there was a Coin Week article discussing that 1982 was a "landmark year" for the Lincoln Head cent ... https://coinweek.com/coins/coin-profiles/us-coins-coin-profiles/united-states-1982-lincoln-cent/

Edited November 27, 2022 by EagleRJO

[World Colonial]

On 11/27/2022 at 6:53 PM, EagleRJO said:

But there was a Coin Week article discussing that 1982 was a "landmark year" for the Lincoln Head cent ... https://coinweek.com/coins/coin-profiles/us-coins-coin-profiles/united-states-1982-lincoln-cent/

I read Coin Week because it's free and on occasion has interesting articles.

Concurrently, they exaggerate a lot.  

[Henri Charriere]

Here's my take on NGCX.  Some are under the impression that it is for everyone.  It isn't.

This is for people with short, uncomplicated, attention spans and the need for immediate gratification.  This is a cohort that runs younger.  Forget coin shows.  These folks have never stepped foot inside of a coin shop. They know we've been to the moon; they don't know why. (Some can't remember where they were when J.F.K. died.)  These new collectors differ from the older ones in only one way. With rare exceptions, they never knew a time when they didn't have to pay for their acquisitions. The die-hards among us hunt through coin rolls the way beachcombers search for seashells at Sanibel. But the newer ones want everything laid out for them. NGCX solves that problem, on a 1 to 10 scale. What, after all can one expect from a generation that's dispensed with penmanship, writing (serious research) and prefers sound-bite-sized tweets in lieu of essays. The younger generation is all about the next new big thing.  That's NGCX.  The only thing they want to know is who's got it, where is it, and what it's going to take to get it in hand.  I don't believe agonizing over shades of grades will hold their interest. History is out. If it's longer than a web page it will be relegated to the "List of Things I Must Do Before I Die."  They will, for the most part, go for the Big Kahuna.  These are folks with leisure time and disposable income. NGCX fits very nicely into their plans.  I forsee a time when encapsulations will dominate all facets of human endeavors.  The winner?  That's the contender, not the collector, who's lined up his slabs, predominantly in the Nines, with decimalized numbers inching toward the pinnacle of perfection: the unsurpassable TEN. Be interesting to see how this plays out...

[EagleRJO]

On 11/27/2022 at 7:39 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

This is for people with short, uncomplicated, attention spans and the need for immediate gratification.  This is a cohort that runs younger.

I don't agree.  There has been discussions related to switching to a 100 point coin grading system (e.g. Guth 100 Point system attached) among well known and established numismatic experts for quite a while due to how the current grading system is so clunky and arbitrary.  Just a small sample of articles discussing that change going back to at least 2018 follows ...

• https://coinweek.com/coinweek-podcast/ron-guth-proposes-100-point-coin-grading-scale/
• https://www.numismaticnews.net/archive/new-100-point-coin-grading-scale-proposed
• https://www.coinnews.net/2018/09/17/100-point-coin-grading-scale-created-by-ron-guth/
• https://www.money.org/collector/user_56466/blog/the-british-coin-grading-system-its-like-they-have-a-different-numeric-score-for-every-grade-

One could probably find another 20 or so more articles with discussions of that with top industry numismatic experts if desired.  A 10 point system would essentially be equivalent to a 100 point system previously considered, which would actually have a better and very simple one-to-one match for the current mint state grades of 9.0 to 10 vs 60 to 70 (e.g. 9.50 vs MS-65 as well as 9.75 or 9.7+ vs MS-67+).  Personally I would have preferred to just see a 100 point system (e.g. 90 to 100 vs 60 to 70 for mint state) with the "+" designations and no decimals, even though I am comfortable with decimals dealing with scientific stuff forever, as I think it would be easier for the average collector to deal with.

However, I understand the push by NGC to use a 10 point grading system (Bo Derek analogy aside ), as that is the condition grading basis for virtually every other hobby in the world.  I really don't get the visceral objections by some to a 10/100 basis system which would essentially be a one-to-one very simple match for mint state coins and a more logical progression for circulated grade designations.  Maybe is just my background dealing with more cutting edge scientific changes, and not having really used the current 70 point system forever, resulting in me being more open to that change.

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by EagleRJO

[gmarguli]

I like Ron Guth. He's a great guy and I wish him the most success ever. Having said that, his scale is completely illogical. There are no grade points from 59 through 79. 20% of the grading scale isn't being used. Shouldn't a near UNC (AU58) be closer to the lowest UNC grade (MS80)? This would cause just as much or more confusion as having a 70 point grading scale now. 

He's taken some adjective grades and increased their frequency for no apparent reason. Do we really need four VG grade points?

He has the grades of Good-5, Very Good-7, and Very Good-11 (utilized today!!), yet other than clueless people I've never see those grades used.

His scale has no high end "Plus" grades except those for MS coins. If we're going to expand the grading scale, shouldn't there be high end grades for circulated grades? 

If we really want to go to a 100 point scale, we should get rid of all the adjective grades and just grade them 45 and 86. 

The numbers should actually mean something. If 80 is UNC, then 40 should only have 50% of the details left. But why is UNC 80? That's as arbitrary as UNC being 60 on the Sheldon scale.

Why are the grading steps 1 point, 2 points, 3 points, and 5 points for circulated, but only 1 point for UNC? Isn't this illogical? How about MS60, MS65, MS70, MS73, MS75, MS80, MS85, MS88, MS90...

[Henri Charriere]

🐓:  Forsooth Q, what do you make of this Guth?

Q.A.:  Negative.  He, too, gives short shrift to my favorite [still non-existent] grade:  AU-59.  A Hundred gradations, and yet, in addition to the thresholds cited by member gm above, there's still no room in the inn for a Fifty-Niner.  Sheesh!

[EagleRJO]

I agree there were issues with the Guth grading scale which is probably why it never stuck, including not having a simple 10 point spread for mint state and allowances for existing grades so there is a simple crossover.

It looks like NGC considered/addressed most of the issues in developing the NGCX 10-point grading scale.  I still need to dig a little deeper to see how the old grades match up, but it looks like one negative may be starting at 1.0 for Poor, instead of 0.0 for Poor/Unidentifiable (maybe 0.25.as PR barely identifiable) up to 1.0 for Fair so there would be a direct one-to-one corresponding grade between whole numbers and the matching adjectival grades).

Like PR 0.25, FR 1.0, AG 2.0, G 3.0, VG 4.0, F 5.0, VF 6.0, XF 7.0m AU 8.0 and then 9-10 for MS 60-70.  Then that AU-58 would simply be an 8.8, and you could even add that AU-59 at 8.9 if you really wanted to add that, although I don't see the need and think there are enough grades as is.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/27/2022 at 8:38 PM, EagleRJO said:

I don't agree.  There has been discussions related to switching to a 100 point coin grading system (e.g. Guth 100 Point system attached) among well known and established numismatic experts for quite a while due to how the current grading system is so clunky and arbitrary.  Just a small sample of articles discussing that change going back to at least 2018 follows ...

Great, a completely new grading system where we can argue over the same things as with the current 70-point system. 

It's the English Standard vs. the Metric System all over again !! 

[EagleRJO]

Healthy disagreement and debate is a key part of any science, including numismatics. 

So far nobody has replied ala SNL with "Jane, you ignorant slut". 

Edited November 28, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Henri Charriere]

On 11/28/2022 at 12:10 AM, EagleRJO said:

....you could even add that AU-59 at 8.9 if you really wanted to add that, although I don't see the need and think there are enough grades as is.

An AU-59 grade unequivocally and definitively separates the pretender, the Almost Uncirculated coin, from the contender: the coin that is without question, an uncirculated [Mint State] example without so much as a hint of back-room gossip concerning possible wear, evidence of wear or the virtually impossible, spurious claim of the conspicuous absence of wear.

I see AU-58 as affording a coin with a provisional tentative grade, and wiggle-room which unnecessarily detracts from the discussion which results in irreconcilable differences as to the seemingly arbitrary point of no return which demarcates a true uncirculated coin from its unfortunate twin.  The owner of the 1913 Liberty Head nickel, known today as the McDemott Specimen, was in the habit of showcasing his coin, unprotected, to interested parties from his pocket.  It apparently reached a point of no return with continual showings.  In the end, his coin was no longer an MS-60 coin.  A grade of AU-59 would decisively drive that point home.  IMHO.

[EagleRJO]

I have enough trouble differentiating between an AU-55 and an AU-58, let alone what the difference would be between an AU-58 and AU-59. 

[VKurtB]

On 11/27/2022 at 3:39 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

Interesting article, but where exactly, does that leave the Lincoln Head cent?

Where? In utter irrelevance to NGCX. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/27/2022 at 10:42 PM, gmarguli said:

I like Ron Guth. He's a great guy and I wish him the most success ever. Having said that, his scale is completely illogical. There are no grade points from 59 through 79. 20% of the grading scale isn't being used. Shouldn't a near UNC (AU58) be closer to the lowest UNC grade (MS80)? This would cause just as much or more confusion as having a 70 point grading scale now. 

Huh ?  No grade points from 59-79 ?  WTH.....

So basically it's an 80 point scale.  We're gonna replace a well-known 70 point scale with an unknown 80-point one ? 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/28/2022 at 6:09 PM, EagleRJO said:

Healthy disagreement and debate is a key part of any science, including numismatics. 

So far nobody has replied ala SNL with "Jane, you ignorant slut". 

If we go with one of the new grading systems, I'm pulling a Dennis Miller:  "I....am....outta here....."