NGCX 1 1

[World Colonial]

On 11/25/2022 at 4:23 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

If I bought an MCMVII High Relief coin....and I knew I was paying a premium price.....I would not be shocked if 10 or 20 or 25 year later it fell in price by 50% for my sales purposes or my heirs/estates.  It would no dissuade me from making the purchase, either.

I think that's a pretty sizeable loss to realize....I would NEVER think a stock or bond mutual fund would lose that over that time horizon (maybe <5 years).  

You know I am a huge pessimist.  I don't see those kinds of nominal losses in 25 years.  Adjusted for price changes is a distinct possibility but I don't believe most buyers of this coin look at it like that.

On 11/25/2022 at 4:23 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think the high-volatility of > 75% losses is confined to non-PM Small Denomination U.S. coins which could find a demographic imbalance downt he line similar to what stamps endured (though maybe 2008-20 was the bottom).   Even here you'd probably figure that 60-75% is the bottom NOW since you're not buying at a bubble peak like 1980, 1989, or 2008.

I expect most post 1933 US circulating coinage in grades up to MS-66 to eventually sell for nominal premiums to silver spot and less than the grading fee.  Same idea for the proofs.

At minimum, it's going to be adversely impacted by changing ethnic demographics and competition from for future NCLT and non-US coinage.

I expect otherwise common TPG condition census coins to lose most of the value, especially where the premium is disproportionate to one or lower grades.

I expect noticeably less set collecting which should make common US 20th century key dates and semi-key dates huge proportional losers.  I expect it to be worst for mid-circulated and lower grades.  The price of this coinage is a throwback to the 1960's when it was viewed as "rare" and is completely disproportionate to the collectible attributes.  1916-D dime in G-4 @ $1200 is one example.

[NewGuy1]

On 11/25/2022 at 2:02 PM, VKurtB said:

The reason they chose 1982 as the line of demarcation is almost certainly the Washington Commemorative. 

almost certainly?  Nah. What planet are you on?  Why would you think some goofy commemerative would be used when they changed to zinc cents  that would be way more important than a commemorative wouldn't it

[Henri Charriere]

Q.A.:  Uh-oh!  Dem's fightin' words!  

🐓:  'Guy hasn't even been here a week!  Then again, you were the same way, Q, when you joined up.  

[gmarguli]

On 11/25/2022 at 1:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Good point, but it's all we got. 

And the Coin Bubble of 1989 was right after PCGS and NGC opened for business.  It wasn't the TPGs that were the reason for the spike -- they were a contributing factor -- but the promise of Wall Street and institutional $$$ into the sector.

MS-65 common Saints traded at a 500-700% premium to their gold content.   The last 20 years or so, it's a 20-100% premium. 

The coin bubble was years after PCGS/NGC opened. PCGS opened in early 1986 and NGC in 1987. The coin bubble started to pop around August 1989 when the Wall Street funds were publicly called off. The PCGS/NGC commoditization of coins clearly had an impact, but so did other factors of the time such as the belief that inflation was coming back, the "recent" Black Monday, the Japanese stock market euphoria/crash, etc. 

I'm not sure why finding a line between an MS65 Saint and spot is relevant. Doing it for common date XF Liberty gold, maybe. Would you do it for MS65 Indian cents and the spot price of copper? 

 

On 11/25/2022 at 1:32 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Look at real estate, which is largely replaceable:  prices are falling for trophy homes, super-expensive beach houses, skyscraper mansions, etc.  There's always more of these being produced (just look at the NYC skyline  ).

OTOH, unique art pieces seem to be holding up.   Can't produce more DaVinci's, Rembrants, Van Gough's, etc.  More bidders....no more supply = stable or rising prices.

Real estate is not replaceable. It is unique. It may be substitutable. 

There have been numerous times art prices have crashed. Art also goes in/out of favor much more quickly than coins. 

[VKurtB]

On 11/25/2022 at 3:44 PM, NewGuy1 said:

almost certainly?  Nah. What planet are you on?  Why would you think some goofy commemerative would be used when they changed to zinc cents  that would be way more important than a commemorative wouldn't it

For the target market for submitting coins (which is 100% NOT collectors, it’s the big wholesale dealers) the resumption of regular commemoratives is the Rubicon of the hobby. Never the same again.

LOOK AT THE RULES! Only specified dealers may even submit NGCX coins. Anyone may buy a randomized pack of 10 coins, RANDOMIZED. But only about 7-10 wholesale dealers may submit them. This is soooo not for the collector. 

Edited November 25, 2022 by VKurtB

[NewGuy1]

On 11/25/2022 at 5:29 PM, VKurtB said:

For the target market for submitting coins (which is 100% NOT collectors, it’s the big wholesale dealers) the resumption of regular commemoratives is the Rubicon of the hobby. Never the same again.

LOOK AT THE RULES! Only specified dealers may even submit NGCX coins. Anyone may buy a randomized pack of 10 coins, RANDOMIZED. But only about 7-10 wholesale dealers may submit them. This is soooo not for the collector. 

Sorry dude I'm sticking with a real change of billions of zinc cents being an important event, not some rinky dinky Washington coin.  Rubicon?  Ha Ha. But go ahead and believe what you want.  what do I know

[VKurtB]

On 11/25/2022 at 4:53 PM, NewGuy1 said:

Sorry dude I'm sticking with a real change of billions of zinc cents being an important event, not some rinky dinky Washington coin.  Rubicon?  Ha Ha. But go ahead and believe what you want.  what do I know

Watch what happens. There will be no cents offered, just NCLT commemoratives and bullion coins out the wazoo. 

Edited November 26, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/24/2022 at 3:22 PM, gmarguli said:

In the PCGS3000: Unapproachable: Chain/Wreath 1c in UNC, numerous key dates in near gem/gem, 1792 Half Disme in MS63/64, most early coinage they have listed in MS63-65, key date gold, proof gold, etc. The reality is that the vast number of collectors will never be able to afford any coin that costs anything near these levels. These are dream coins and they shouldn't be used to judge the health of the market.  Well Heeled: Contains tons of $5K-$50K coins. Median income in US is around $45K and household around $65K. A significant portion of collectors will never be able to afford these and many that do buy at this level may only buy one or two to complete a set.  I don't know the weight (if any) put on each coin, but I'd much rather have an index like this heavily weighted upon the coins that frequently trade and lightly weighted on the coins that come up for auction once a year. It'd give a much better representation of the whole market.

I have to check out the subsectors and what is in them.....how the index is constructed and weighed (I may have done it before but I forgot)....but I agree that you do NOT want a bunch of expensive coins in condition scarcity or overall scarcity (i.e, 1933 Saint) skewing a price index upwards.

Whether equal-weighted or dollar-weighted the PCGS 3000 or any other index should focus the bulk on coins that are "affordable" to non-wealthy but serious money investors.  An index is supposed to be REPRESENTATIVE of the MARKET, not just focusing on coins that 99.999% will NEVER even CONSIDER buying.  Most people will probably NOT buy an MCMVII High Relief but at about $10-$12,000 for an AU-58, it's not impossible for someone to get one even if they have to save up.

So to use Saints as an example....I would include an MCMVII High Relief up to AU-58 or MS-63 grade....I would NOT go to MS-65 or above and certainly would not inlcude MCMVII UHR patterns, the 1933 Saint, or even any 1927-D.  A coin that is OK for a Type Collection in medium/affordable grades would be my target.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/25/2022 at 5:10 PM, gmarguli said:

The coin bubble was years after PCGS/NGC opened. PCGS opened in early 1986 and NGC in 1987. The coin bubble started to pop around August 1989 when the Wall Street funds were publicly called off. The PCGS/NGC commoditization of coins clearly had an impact, but so did other factors of the time such as the belief that inflation was coming back, the "recent" Black Monday, the Japanese stock market euphoria/crash, etc.  'm not sure why finding a line between an MS65 Saint and spot is relevant. Doing it for common date XF Liberty gold, maybe. Would you do it for MS65 Indian cents and the spot price of copper? 

My point was that Saints traded at certain premiums within a range over time.  It got blown out of the water in 1988-90.  Saints were one coin that was targeted for investment $$$; I'm sure there were others that got driven up hugely in price but I don't follow them that closely.

The TPGs helped stoke the bubble INADVERTENTLY because with the promise of being able to buy "sight unseen" it was presumed that liquidity would increase exponentially and institutional monies would be able to and willing to buy the coins.  If you want to buy the coins but can't, that's as bad as not wanting to buy them.  The TPGs were supposed to help accomodate that Wall Street and institutional money.

On 11/25/2022 at 5:10 PM, gmarguli said:

Real estate is not replaceable. It is unique. It may be substitutable.  There have been numerous times art prices have crashed. Art also goes in/out of favor much more quickly than coins. 

Good word, yes, subsitutable.  But trophy mansions in the sky can be created -- new supply -- over time.

No more famous art is being increased -- no more supply.  But more people today are billionaires than 40 years ago or even 25 years ago or even 10 years ago -- which means alot more demand.

[zadok]

On 11/25/2022 at 4:29 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Regardless, people today know much more about where the stock market is at...interest rates....the economy.

In the 1970's or 1980's, it was only those who read The NYT Business Section or The WSJ.  That was about it.  My father used to get his financial news on the 55-minute mark from commentators on WINS and WCBS-880 here in NY driving home or to work each day.  That was it.

I can still remember those zero-coupon ads in 1981 when I commuted with him...nobody wanted those 14, 15, 16% interest rates !!!  

...ill bet u that if u went to the FUN show n asked the first 500 persons thru the door what the prime interest rate is or what the dow closed at, that less than 5% could answer either question...however i would bet that 90% could tell u what the spot price of gold n silver is...if u ask these same persons what brent crude is, ud get more saying its a brand of beer than it is a type of oil....

[zadok]

On 11/25/2022 at 4:38 PM, World Colonial said:

You know I am a huge pessimist.  I don't see those kinds of nominal losses in 25 years.  Adjusted for price changes is a distinct possibility but I don't believe most buyers of this coin look at it like that.

I expect most post 1933 US circulating coinage in grades up to MS-66 to eventually sell for nominal premiums to silver spot and less than the grading fee.  Same idea for the proofs.

At minimum, it's going to be adversely impacted by changing ethnic demographics and competition from for future NCLT and non-US coinage.

I expect otherwise common TPG condition census coins to lose most of the value, especially where the premium is disproportionate to one or lower grades.

I expect noticeably less set collecting which should make common US 20th century key dates and semi-key dates huge proportional losers.  I expect it to be worst for mid-circulated and lower grades.  The price of this coinage is a throwback to the 1960's when it was viewed as "rare" and is completely disproportionate to the collectible attributes.  1916-D dime in G-4 @ $1200 is one example.

...disagree, although i do agree that most post 1900 key dates r not rare....

[VKurtB]

On 11/25/2022 at 10:09 PM, zadok said:

...ill bet u that if u went to the FUN show n asked the first 500 persons thru the door what the prime interest rate is or what the dow closed at, that less than 5% could answer either question...however i would bet that 90% could tell u what the spot price of gold n silver is...if u ask these same persons what brent crude is, ud get more saying its a brand of beer than it is a type of oil....

I bet less than 10% could answer ANY OF THE THREE. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/25/2022 at 11:09 PM, zadok said:

...ill bet u that if u went to the FUN show n asked the first 500 persons thru the door what the prime interest rate is or what the dow closed at, that less than 5% could answer either question...however i would bet that 90% could tell u what the spot price of gold n silver is...if u ask these same persons what brent crude is, ud get more saying its a brand of beer than it is a type of oil....

I bet you would be right 40 or even 20 years ago....but I think nowadays with smartphones people are tracking all financial markets:  the DJIA.....gold....bond yields....BitCoin.....crypto.

You have to....they ALL impact to an extent.

Edited November 26, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/25/2022 at 11:32 PM, VKurtB said:

I bet less than 10% could answer ANY OF THE THREE. 

You guys MAY be right...maybe the dealers and attendees are 100% Gold Bugs....but my experience with talking to people who still buy gold like they did 20 or 40 years ago is they track all/many financial markets.

Then again, I do have a CFA and CFP so maybe it's the company I keep. 

[zadok]

On 11/26/2022 at 3:00 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I bet you would be right 40 or even 20 years ago....but I think nowadays with smartphones people are tracking all financial markets:  the DJIA.....gold....bond yields....BitCoin.....crypto.

You have to....they ALL impact to an extent.

...if u believe that then check the first 500 persons smart phone for those apps...90% will have a PM spot price app, 5% will have the dow....

[zadok]

On 11/26/2022 at 3:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You guys MAY be right...maybe the dealers and attendees are 100% Gold Bugs....but my experience with talking to people who still buy gold like they did 20 or 40 years ago is they track all/many financial markets.

Then again, I do have a CFA and CFP so maybe it's the company I keep. 

...90% wont know what either of those mean nor what NFT means but most will know what NSF means...u need to get out more n talk to more collectors at shows....

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 11/23/2022 at 11:22 PM, EagleRJO said:

I checked in on this thread to see what people were saying about the new NGCX grading scale, and there are pages with virtually nothing to do with the new scale.  Who hijacked Mike's thread?

It's all good and does tie into the larger NGCX theme. A spirited discussion will not stay in a lane and quite frankly I look forward to where it may lead once started. 

[World Colonial]

On 11/26/2022 at 3:00 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I bet you would be right 40 or even 20 years ago....but I think nowadays with smartphones people are tracking all financial markets:  the DJIA.....gold....bond yields....BitCoin.....crypto.

You have to....they ALL impact to an extent.

Most coin collectors don't own even one gold coin.  I now own one 1952 South Africa 1/2 pound.  I owned a few more in the past, but not many and my collection is certainly worth more than the majority of coins collectors.  Concurrently, it isn't valuable enough where it's practical to own gold coinage in any quantity, even if I preferred it which I don't.  (Spain never struck colonial gold pillar coinage, only ugly portraits.)

Working from home, I keep CNBC.com on my home PC all day long.  As I read your post, I thought gold closed around 1800 yesterday.  At $1755, it's not meaningfully different, but I doubt most coin show attendees follow it as closely as I do.

I doubt any meaningful pct know the price because it isn't relevant to them.  They don't have enough money to buy or collect it.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:47 AM, zadok said:

...90% wont know what either of those mean nor what NFT means but most will know what NSF means...u need to get out more n talk to more collectors at shows....

NSF ?? 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 8:59 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

It's all good and does tie into the larger NGCX theme. A spirited discussion will not stay in a lane and quite frankly I look forward to where it may lead once started. 

When does the new service start ?  The sample holders we saw...those will be the actual ones, right ?

[World Colonial]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

NSF ?? 

Presume its Non-Sufficient Funds.

Even coin collectors ocassionally bounced checks, before banks granted deatbeats overdraft protection.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:12 AM, World Colonial said:

Working from home, I keep CNBC.com on my home PC all day long.  As I read your post, I thought gold closed around 1800 yesterday.  At $1755, it's not meaningfully different, but I doubt most coin show attendees follow it as closely as I do.

Which reminds me....when was the LAST time CNBC had a debate on the price of gold ?  It's tough enough for someone to even mention gold at the end of an interview (if the CNBC hosts remember to do so).  I remember when you would see a debate on the price of gold every week with a bull and bear going at it.

Maybe I'll reach out to Mike Santoli, I used to do some stuff with him and he's a guy who still looks at gold every now and then.  Maybe he'll book me and I can talk about Saints !! 

[World Colonial]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:30 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Which reminds me....when was the LAST time CNBC had a debate on the price of gold ? 

I might be able to answer your question if I had cable TV but I'm too cheap to pay for it.  It's a complete rip-off.  I've thought about a Peacock subscription to get it but don't have it either.  I only read CNBC's website but don't watch the videos.

[zadok]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:30 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Which reminds me....when was the LAST time CNBC had a debate on the price of gold ?  It's tough enough for someone to even mention gold at the end of an interview (if the CNBC hosts remember to do so).  I remember when you would see a debate on the price of gold every week with a bull and bear going at it.

Maybe I'll reach out to Mike Santoli, I used to do some stuff with him and he's a guy who still looks at gold every now and then.  Maybe he'll book me and I can talk about Saints !! 

...mass exodus ratings drop, advertisers boycott goldfinger1969....

[zadok]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:33 AM, World Colonial said:

I might be able to answer your question if I had cable TV but I'm too cheap to pay for it.  It's a complete rip-off.  I've thought about a Peacock subscription to get it but don't have it either.  I only read CNBC's website but don't watch the videos.

...wheres Huntley-Brinkley when u need them?...not talking bout Christie but shes gold on almost any standard....

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 11/26/2022 at 10:26 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

When does the new service start ?  The sample holders we saw...those will be the actual ones, right ?

The press release says that NGCX coins will be available in January 2023. Kicking-off at FUN perhaps? As far as I know the slabs in the article are the actual holders.

Here is a list of the qualifying Retailers distributing NGCX slabs.

• 360 Coin Group (Bradley Goldsmith)
• Asset Marketing, brands affiliated: ModernCoinMart, GovMint.com
• Collectors Alliance
• Frederick Coin Exchange
• Heritage Capital Corp
• Kevin Lipton Rare Coins
• Minshull Trading, brands affiliated: VaultBox and Finest Known
• Pinehurst Coins
• RARCOA
• United States Gold Bureau 

RARCOA, I wonder how the NGC green label project is going for them? Must be doing well if they are jumping in on NGCX.

Edited November 26, 2022 by Fenntucky Mike
Punctuation

[VKurtB]

On 11/26/2022 at 2:01 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You guys MAY be right...maybe the dealers and attendees are 100% Gold Bugs....but my experience with talking to people who still buy gold like they did 20 or 40 years ago is they track all/many financial markets.

Then again, I do have a CFA and CFP so maybe it's the company I keep. 

Yes it is the company you keep, not that it’s a good thing. 

[VKurtB]

On 11/26/2022 at 1:03 PM, Fenntucky Mike said:

The press release says that NGCX coins will be available in January 2023, kicking-off at FUN perhaps.? As far as I know the slabs in the article are the actual holders.

Here is a list of the qualifying Retailers distributing NGCX slabs.

• 360 Coin Group (Bradley Goldsmith)
• Asset Marketing, brands affiliated: ModernCoinMart, GovMint.com
• Collectors Alliance
• Frederick Coin Exchange
• Heritage Capital Corp
• Kevin Lipton Rare Coins
• Minshull Trading, brands affiliated: VaultBox and Finest Known
• Pinehurst Coins
• RARCOA
• United States Gold Bureau 

RARCOA, I wonder how the NGC green label project is going for them? Must be doing well if they are jumping in on NGCX.

Yeahhhhh, with these guys it’s all about 1982 cents. Uh huh. SUUUUURE it is. Pffft! 

[gmarguli]

On 11/25/2022 at 6:03 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

My point was that Saints traded at certain premiums within a range over time.  It got blown out of the water in 1988-90.  Saints were one coin that was targeted for investment $$$; I'm sure there were others that got driven up hugely in price but I don't follow them that closely.

Everything was going up as no one knew what the firms would be buying. And I mean everything. I wish someone could show a Bluesheet from this time. The number of + vs - would blow your mind. 

[USAuPzlBxBob]

I miss Luis Rukeyser and seeing him each Friday on Wall $treet Week… his opening monologue.

Used to live at my grandparents, room and board free (my grandmother: "you save your money"), helping them get by in their elder years.

Religiously, on every Friday night, PBS was watched just for this show.

Also, my grandmother would take her transistor radio with her to each sitting-room during the day, and listen to 1010 WINS news radio to get intraday financial updates.

This experience wore off on me, and gave me the mindset to invest, and to save, and be aware of the markets.  All good!