If I buy in between PCGS and NGC price is it a good deal retail?? 0

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, Diamondslayer said:

I pulled the trigger yesterday. I just wanted to know what y’all thought.

If YOU like the coin, and the price was reasonable (neither a great bargain nor a rip-off).....then you got a good deal.  Enjoy the coin and don't worry about what you paid or what it is worth.

Congratulations ! 

On 8/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, Diamondslayer said:

I have been keeping an eye on the futures too. Fundamental analysis says that we are on our way to a major recession. Technical analysis says that we have enough room to break out from here. That is my opinion. This is coming from my outlook on the five year weekly chart and the year daily chart. This is just my opinion and in no way should be taken as investment advice. I am usually wrong, but that is the reason I trade options. This gives me the ability to mitigate loss or turn them into winners with adjustments to my trade. Again, this is not investment advice. 

Are you talking about the price of gold ?  Fundamental analysis of gold can take YEARS to kick-in (supply and demand here take that long to kick-in).  Technical analysis can be right -- or it can be wrong.  Unless you see a big move in the gold price and you want to FADE it (go the other way) because you think it is overdone....or if you think it's the start of a CONTINUED move in that direction (i.e., 1976-80, 2000-08, 2009-11, etc.) best to not try and predict the price of gold and just buy what you like at reasonable prices.

If you are usually wrong, you shouldn't be speculating with options, IMO.

On 8/13/2022 at 7:40 AM, Diamondslayer said:

Have I done something wrong? I am not able to ask anymore questions in the newbie section. I have the best account. Please keep me posted!

I see nothing you did to warrant any time-out or suspension.  Not sure what you are talking about.  Did you edit the post above with that inquiry because you couldn't post again ?

Your questions and posts seem fine to me.  We need more newcomers like you and Eagle to jump-start this place. 

Edited August 13, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[USAuPzlBxBob]

Diamondslayer, I'll second GoldFinger1969's opinion that you did fine with your purchase.

When it comes in, assuming you bought it over the Internet, take a cellphone pic of it and try to get better at simple photography; editing the pic, centering, boosting things to make it look its best.

This is a "rich" hobby, and especially that you're going for the "gold."  As you collect more coins, develop some sort of coherence for your efforts, to make them make more sense to you.

I remember when I was collecting my hundred year gold type set, the challenges of the search, the finances involved, the "heat of battle" with the doubt that keeps you in the hunt, or the coins you let get away by indecision, and when you refresh the page, the coin is SOLD… and it is all good when things are done with reputable people and dealers.

If a dealer makes a little more than you think is fair, let them know, and remind them that if they curry your favor now, they might be rewarded many times over by further dealings with you, later.

[Sandon]

   Diamondslayer--Here are my comments on some points you made:

1.  However many 1860-S double eagles exist or are in numismatists' hands, their price is determined by demand as well as supply.  It is a better date but not an especially rare one in circulated grades, and a relatively small number of wealthy collectors endeavor to collect double eagles by date and mint, some of whom compete for "finest knowns" and wouldn't be interested in an AU 53. A population of 1,500 (if it were that low) isn't particularly small for such a coin. For every collector who specifically wants and can afford an 1860-S, there are probably hundreds who want and can afford a 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent, 1916-D "Mercury" dime, or 1893-S Morgan dollar, to name a few.  Tens of thousands of each of these coins exist, but they command high prices even in worn grades that increase over time.  In 1999 I purchased an 1869 silver three cent piece graded AU 58 by PCGS.  This coin had an original mintage for circulation of 4,500, but as the "Redbook" states regarding silver three cent pieces, "[n]early the entire production run of non-Proof coins from 1863 to 1872 was melted in 1873." NGC and PCGS have numerically graded 148 pieces, with an additional 12 NGC "details" graded.  Few collectors try for a complete set of three cent silvers. I paid $437 for the coin in 1999, and it presently lists $1,500 on CPG. (They rarely trade, so even current price lists aren't reliable guides.)  This coin is much rarer than the coins I mentioned or even such rare coins as a 1901-S Barber quarter or 1916 Standing Liberty quarter yet sells for far less than they do in equivalent grades due to the much lower demand.

   2.  I don't know anything about the standards or institutions by which diamonds are "graded" or otherwise evaluated.  Perhaps there are objective criteria by which all competent diamond experts would agree on the "grade" of a particular diamond.  That's not so with the grading of coins!  Whether numerical (especially) or adjectival, the grading of coins is inherently subjective and varies even among experienced numismatists, including those employed by grading services.  There are simply too many factors to consider, such as contact marks and other abrasions to which even uncirculated coins are subject (number, size, location, severity), luster, strike, toning, originality, and the especially nebulous "eye appeal". There's also wide disagreement over whether certain impairments such as "cleaning", "artificial toning", "stains", or "damage" exist on a coin or whether the impairment is sufficiently severe to warrant giving the coin a "details" grade.  The proliferation of numerical grades has made the process even more subjective. Coins have been graded by a particular grading service, "cracked out' and given a grade several points higher or lower by the same grading service, with neither grade necessarily being "wrong". Ironically, there's much less subjectivity when dealing with modern proof, commemorative and other coins made solely for collectors, which are carefully handled and encapsulated at the mint, but because nearly all of them are nearly flawless and fully struck there's no good reason to send them--especially the ones you bought from the mint--to a grading service!

 3. I began collecting coins as a child in 1971, 15 years before third party grading and encapsulation began at PCGS and before grading guides had standards for the grading of uncirculated coins. You had to learn about coins by examining them and reading about them and then collect them in accordance with your own informed judgment and taste. You still do!  What's on a grading service tag is someone else's opinion, not necessarily yours!  Most of my coins, including some rare ones, are uncertified and will likely remain so.  They look nicer in albums and take up much less space in my safe deposit boxes than they would in bulky "slabs".  

   4. If you're still unable to create new threads, make sure you're "signed in" on that screen.

  I hope this helps!

[EagleRJO]

On 8/13/2022 at 10:43 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

That's $250 or about 14%.  Throw out your calculator and get a new one.  

Your right, well kinda. My $350 number was wrong, so it is a $250 (or 14%) increase, but not 10% like you were saying. In any event we agree it was an unusual price spike which I think has since come back to reality.

On 8/13/2022 at 10:43 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Whenever you get a rapid price rise you can see irrational pricing moves. 

I'm just waiting for the downside of that price spike.

Edited December 15, 2022 by EagleRJO

[Diamondslayer]

On 8/13/2022 at 12:07 PM, Sandon said:

 

   2.  I don't know anything about the standards or institutions by which diamonds are "graded" or otherwise evaluated.  Perhaps there are objective criteria by which all competent diamond experts would agree on the "grade" of a particular diamond.  That's not so with the grading of coins!  Whether numerical (especially) or adjectival, the grading of coins is inherently subjective and varies even among experienced numismatists, including those employed by grading services.  There are simply too many factors to consider, such as contact marks and other abrasions to which even uncirculated coins are subject (number, size, location, severity), luster, strike, toning, originality, and the especially nebulous "eye appeal". There's also wide disagreement over whether certain impairments such as "cleaning", "artificial toning", "stains", or "damage" exist on a coin or whether the impairment is sufficiently severe to warrant giving the coin a "details" grade.  The proliferation of numerical grades has made the process even more subjective. Coins have been graded by a particular grading service, "cracked out' and given a grade several points higher or lower by the same grading service, with neither grade necessarily being "wrong". Ironically, there's much less subjectivity when dealing with modern proof, commemorative and other coins made solely for collectors, which are carefully handled and encapsulated at the mint, but because nearly all of them are nearly flawless and fully struck there's no good reason to send them--especially the ones you bought from the mint--to a grading service!

 

Diamonds are subjective. That is why they use an odd number of graders to come up with an average of all of their opinions. When it comes to  diamonds reports, yes they add expense to the diamond, but it helps the jeweler show his unbias in any diamond sale. Most diamonds are graded, and if it is not then I would ask for it to be graded before I buy (especially a pretty diamond...lol). When GIA and AGS came out with reports, there were jewelers who resisted. But now almost any reputable jeweler puts a report on their diamond. If I sell a diamond without a report, it is because it is frozen spit and it would add to much expense to the cheap diamond. I always let the client know what they are purchasing though. Now, the consumer expects reports. The nature of the business has changed, but for the better. With that said though, there is still a level of fraud. Just like any business...or life.

As far as coins, Idk.  That is why I am here. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:11 PM, EagleRJO said:

I'm just waiting for the downside of that price spike.

Don't quote me on this.....and I'm not 100% sure....but my experience has told me that sellers are a wee bit faster to RAISE prices when costs go up than to CUT prices when costs go down. 

I'll research this and report back......

 

[EagleRJO]

On 8/13/2022 at 3:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

but my experience has told me that sellers are a wee bit faster to RAISE prices when costs go up than to CUT prices when costs go down

That does seem to be the case with the recent price bubble/spike.

[EagleRJO]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:49 PM, Diamondslayer said:

As far as coins, Idk.  That is why I am here. 

There are a lot of very experienced and knowledgeable collectors and people from the industry who regularly post and answer questions on this board, so you have probably come to the right place.  Congrats on the purchase of your coin.

[Diamondslayer]

Thank you!!

On 8/13/2022 at 2:24 PM, EagleRJO said:

Congrats on the purchase of your coin.

 

[Diamondslayer]

 

Almost the same in any business. When cost come down and see that the consumer is still paying, the business takes the premium until they see their numbers fall. In my business, diamonds have increased 30% these last two years. When wholesale diamond prices go up they never come down.  Never!!

On 8/13/2022 at 2:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Don't quote me on this.....and I'm not 100% sure....but my experience has told me that sellers are a wee bit faster to RAISE prices when costs go up than to CUT prices when costs go down. 

I'll research this and report back......

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/13/2022 at 1:07 PM, Sandon said:

 A population of 1,500 (if it were that low) isn't particularly small for such a coin. For every collector who specifically wants and can afford an 1860-S, there are probably hundreds who want and can afford a 1909-S V.D.B. Lincoln cent, 1916-D "Mercury" dime, or 1893-S Morgan dollar, to name a few.  Tens of thousands of each of these coins exist, but they command high prices even in worn grades that increase over time. 

They do ?  In circulated condition ?  Must be lots of demand there from lots of collectors doing pennies and dimes right ?  I'm not familiar with those series at all but I know lots of beginners start out with them (I thought because they are easy to collect and affordable).  Because tens of thousands in circulated must mean lots more in the other grades, higher and lower.

As for Liberty DE collectors relative to 1,500 of the 1860-S's.....if we assume that there are no more and probablye FEWER Liberty DE collectors than Saint DE collectors, the numbers I've seen are 500-1,000 for serious registry collector types....and maybe 25,000 or so for type collectors.  But I would think anybody lookign for a type Liberty would look to a 1904 or 1907 Liberty where more quantity in higher grades exist.  But the 1860-S has a certain appeal, as our friend DS posted eaerlier.

[GoldFinger1969]

Check out the pair of MS-66 1908 WF NM Saints I posted in another thread, PCGS and NGC.

If the weak feathers on the PCGS and the band towards 8 PM from the belly are NOT rub/wear, then it's very strange that the NGC would sell for 20% more than the PCGS coin.  I can't tell if the feathers/band are rub/wear.

 

[EagleRJO]

On 8/12/2022 at 3:05 PM, Diamondslayer said:

If I buy in between PCGS and NGC price is it a good deal retail?? So I paid in between a NGC 3500 and a PCGS 4000. I don't know if I should give anymore info or not. Like the coin info and the price I paid. Shoul I be buying below NGC and where?

I think the PCG$ guide prices in particular are unreasonably high retail prices, as they jacked up their guide prices earlier this year at what turned out to be an unusual price spike.  They never adjusted the guide prices down, even though prices across the board came down, so now I don't even bother looking up those PCG$ prices.

It seems like some still use PCG$ as a guide, including buyers who blindly use them without realizing they are unreasonably high, or dealers who still think they can get those prices from the peak.  So, I just move on to another coin if I see prices headed towards or listed at the PCG$ guide price.

I have been sticking with the NGC prices as a guide, supplemented by actual sold listings at Great Collections or Heritage Auctions (adjusted for the higher BP).  I also look at sold eBay listings if they are slabbed coins.  In the end, the NGC guide prices seem to be pretty accurate with what coins have been going for in general,  I can typically find coins at or lower than those NGC prices, although sometimes it requires me to be patient and wait for the right coin at the right price to come along.

Edited December 14, 2022 by EagleRJO

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/13/2022 at 10:59 PM, EagleRJO said:

I think the PCG$ guide prices in particular are unreasonably high retail prices, as they jacked up their guide prices earlier this year at what turned out to be an unusual price spike.  They never adjusted the guide prices down, even though prices across the board came down, so now I don't even bother looking up those PCG$ prices. It seems like some still use PCG$ as a guide, including buyers who blindly use them without realizing they are unreasonably high, or dealers who still think they can get those prices from the peak.  So, I just move on to another coin if I see prices headed towards or listed at the PCG$ guide price. I have been sticking with the NGC prices as a guide, supplemented by actual sold listings at Great Collections or Heritage Auctions (adjusted for the higher BP).  I also look at sold eBay listings if they are slabbed coins.  In the end, the NGC guide prices seem to be pretty accurate with what coins have been going for in general,  I can typically find coins at or lower than those NGC prices, although sometimes it requires me to be patient and wait for the right coin at the right price to come along.

Actual prices are always best.  Takes time but no substitute for actual sales.

I do find the NGC (and PCGS, if they have it, can't remember) price GRAPHS useful for a quick-and-dirty look at the price movement going back years.  The recent prices might be off but you can see the TREND clearly.

But even that you have to take with caveats.  I was looking at 1908 NM WF Saints in MS-67.  I punched up the NGC price chart going back to like 2006, maximum or all or whatever.  It looked like I thought it would....except....right around 2015 the price jumped from like $9,00 to $15,000 and stayed there for about 1 year and then dropped back down again.  It looked like a square camel's hump "bump" in the price that stood out.  No other price jumps for other high-grade 1908 NM Saints....could have been an outlier with 1 or 2 sales for whatever reason....could be an error in the data, I didn't explore further.  Wasn't the market or 1908 Saints or the gold price or anything acting weird at that time.

[RWB]

On 8/12/2022 at 3:05 PM, Diamondslayer said:

If I buy in between PCGS and NGC price is it a good deal retail?? So I paid in between a NGC 3500 and a PCGS 4000. I don't know if I should give anymore info or not. Like the coin info and the price I paid. Shoul I be buying below NGC and where? 

 

Published values are always estimates and guidance, unless they some from a specific source such as a seller or an auction. Use the lists to help understand the range of possible retail value and to build a mental correlation between that range and the actual condition of a specific coin. This can be a chore, or it can be part of the fun of hunting for that elusive creature called  "Best Value."

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 10:40 AM, RWB said:

Published values are always estimates and guidance, unless they some from a specific source such as a seller or an auction. Use the lists to help understand the range of possible retail value and to build a mental correlation between that range and the actual condition of a specific coin. This can be a chore, or it can be part of the fun of hunting for that elusive creature called  "Best Value."

As an example, Roger has a matrix in his Saints Double Eagles book for every coin based on HA actual sales prices.  It's very useful and would save anybody lots of time for price estimates except for the most recent price quotes (the data ends in 2015 in the book).

[RWB]

The book's prices are only one source, and are "snapshots" in time. However, they are a more reliable value point than various lists because they are specific. If the collector does additional research into the same kind of sources, his information will be much higher quality than published lists. It can also aid in understanding why two coins of the same date, mintmark and grade can sell for significantly different prices.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 1:20 PM, RWB said:

The book's prices are only one source, and are "snapshots" in time. However, they are a more reliable value point than various lists because they are specific. If the collector does additional research into the same kind of sources, his information will be much higher quality than published lists. 

Yes, and as I posted on another thread somewhere, I saw a glitch with a 1-year bump-up in prices on the NGC Price Graph for MS-67 1908 NM Saints.  Just went from about $9K to $15K for 1 year and came down.  No other grades moved like that, and gold didn't either.

On 12/14/2022 at 1:20 PM, RWB said:

It can also aid in understanding why two coins of the same date, mintmark and grade can sell for significantly different prices.

Yeah, wondering about 2 different 1908 NM WF Saints I had both MS-66, one from PCGS and one from NGC......also posted in another thread here.  NGC coin went for 20% more.  I think I saw rub and a mysterious band on the PCGS from the Eagles underbelly to the 8 O'Clock position but I am not sure.  Usually, PCGS coins sell at the premium.

Edited December 14, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[EagleRJO]

On 12/14/2022 at 1:15 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

As an example, Roger has a matrix in his Saints Double Eagles book for every coin based on HA actual sales prices.  It's very useful and would save anybody lots of time for price estimates except for the most recent price quotes (the data ends in 2015 in the book).

Other than for general trends possibly for higher value coins I wouldn't rely on data 7 years old, and would use current GC , HA and Sacks sold data.  Possibly combined with eBay sold data for more common coins.

[RWB]

On 12/14/2022 at 4:01 PM, EagleRJO said:

Other than for general trends possibly for higher value coins I wouldn't rely on data 7 years old, and would use current GC , HA and Sacks sold data.  Possibly combined with eBay sold data for more common coins.

Agreed. That is a major problem for printed text when markets now flow on a river of electrons, not printers' ink.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 4:01 PM, EagleRJO said:

Other than for general trends possibly for higher value coins I wouldn't rely on data 7 years old, and would use current GC , HA and Sacks sold data.  Possibly combined with eBay sold data for more common coins.

I think that the HISTORICAL data shouldn't change that much on something like past selling prices.  Using the HA archives is a very good source....had it been an amalgamation of Ebay completed sales and asking prices, that's another thing. 

The data in the price grids for every Saint should be 99% accurate/good even if a 2nd edition needs to be done.  What MIGHT change is 2014 and 2015, the most recent two years in the grid -- and of course, we don't have anything for 2016 to the present since the book was published in 2018 and the data covers 1976-2015.

On 12/14/2022 at 4:05 PM, RWB said:

Agreed. That is a major problem for printed text when markets now flow on a river of electrons, not printers' ink.

Right, for things that are fluid and change -- like a population census.  That can change over time from hoards, new finds, etc.

But something fixed like average selling price shouldn't be revised back too much, unless you changed the method of computation (i.e., instead of using HA solo, also incorporating GC or SB). 

[EagleRJO]

On 12/14/2022 at 5:49 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think that the HISTORICAL data shouldn't change that much on something like past selling prices.  Using the HA archives is a very good source....had it been an amalgamation of Ebay completed sales and asking prices, that's another thing. 

The data in the price grids for every Saint should be 99% accurate/good even if a 2nd edition needs to be done.  What MIGHT change is 2014 and 2015, the most recent two years in the grid -- and of course, we don't have anything for 2016 to the present since the book was published in 2018 and the data covers 1976-2015.

Right, for things that are fluid and change -- like a population census.  That can change over time from hoards, new finds, etc.

But something fixed like average selling price shouldn't be revised back too much, unless you changed the method of computation (i.e., instead of using HA solo, also incorporating GC or SB). 

The problem is historical data does change as time goes by, and is not fixed.  That's why I would use current GC , HA, Sacks and eBay sold data.

[RonnieR131]

 Sandon, on your #3 above, you said that many of your coins including some rare ones are ungraded and will probably remain so. I have two friends that think the same as you. One friend in particular, I suggested he get several of them graded just so people will know that there are more 'survivors' than previously known. He won't budge. I mentioned that any coin individually worth over 100k should be graded at least for insurance purposes. No, he won't budge. So, that's that. 

[EagleRJO]

@RonnieR131Your friends sound like my type of collectors.

[jimbo27]

I looked up the mintages, the 1860 and 1860s both over 1/2 million coined, the 1860o mintage was 6600 coins. Hope you have the New Orleans coin. Oh yeah, welcome to the forum. This information is on Coin Community, most US coin mintages are here. I don't have a link, sorry.

[VKurtB]

Most of the truly important collections that come to market are collected raw, and are only graded in preparation for going on the block. Kerry Wetterstrom, formerly of CNG, told me there are probably 20 or more “important” collections just in Lancaster County, all of them raw, and none of them known by many to even exist. I must say my more “downscale” experience from that area would bear out his report. Slabbing is just not very popular in that market. 2 of the next 3 ANA World’s Fairs of Money will be in Pennsylvania.

Edited December 15, 2022 by VKurtB

[VKurtB]

On 12/14/2022 at 6:22 PM, RonnieR131 said:

 Sandon, on your #3 above, you said that many of your coins including some rare ones are ungraded and will probably remain so. I have two friends that think the same as you. One friend in particular, I suggested he get several of them graded just so people will know that there are more 'survivors' than previously known. He won't budge. I mentioned that any coin individually worth over 100k should be graded at least for insurance purposes. No, he won't budge. So, that's that. 

I stand in full agreement with Sandon on this. Very very few of my better pieces are graded. I don’t know - it’s the way I was taught the hobby. Learn to grade for yourself and to heck with third party grading. At the end of the day, ONLY your own opinion of your coins matters, UNLESS you make a business out of it. I don’t. I have cracked out, permanently, almost as many coins as I have had graded. Yes, it does remove me from the world of Registry collecting. I view that as a feature, not a bug. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 6:47 PM, EagleRJO said:

The problem is historical data does change as time goes by, and is not fixed.  That's why I would use current GC , HA, Sacks and eBay sold data.

If someone wants to know the prices for an MS-65 or MS-63 1923-D Saint-Gaudens for 1986 or 2006....I don't think the HA data is going to change today vs. when RWB computed it. 

Historical data doesn't change unless the data itself does (don't know how that could happen here) or there are benchmark revisions as with government GDP and economic statistics.

CURRENT GC/HA/SB/Ebay data is the best for CURRENT pricing....I'm talking about the price for a specific coin in a certain grade 3 years ago or 10 years ago or 35 years ago (RWB's price grid goes back to 1976).

Most of those archives you cited don't go back more than a decade except for HA and even their stuff is very sporadic before 1995.

Edited December 15, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 7:22 PM, RonnieR131 said:

 Sandon, on your #3 above, you said that many of your coins including some rare ones are ungraded and will probably remain so. I have two friends that think the same as you. One friend in particular, I suggested he get several of them graded just so people will know that there are more 'survivors' than previously known. He won't budge. I mentioned that any coin individually worth over 100k should be graded at least for insurance purposes. No, he won't budge. So, that's that. 

Interesting.....strange....but interesting. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/14/2022 at 9:45 PM, VKurtB said:

Most of the truly important collections that come to market are collected raw, and are only graded in preparation for going on the block. Kerry Wetterstrom, formerly of CNG, told me there are probably 20 or more “important” collections just in Lancaster County, all of them raw, and none of them known by many to even exist. I must say my more “downscale” experience from that area would bear out his report. Slabbing is just not very popular in that market. 2 of the next 3 ANA World’s Fairs of Money will be in Pennsylvania.

What is CNG ??

If what you are saying is true, considering that is just one nondescript county (not exceptionally wealthy our adjacent to a major metropolitan area, either).....you wonder if that could be true for other counties, too.

Or maybe PA just nurtured coin collectors better than other locales decades ago so more people collected in the state and therefore there are more of these "unknown hoards."  When The Great Transfer takes place -- the trillions of financial and tangible assets that will be passed from the pre-WW II generation to the post-WW II generation -- you'll get these collections coming out.  IF they exist. 

Any idea what kind of coins might be in those collections ?  We talking gold/silver or U.S. Small Denominations or even foreign stuff ?

Edited December 15, 2022 by GoldFinger1969