Auction of the 1933 STG DE - what will happen? What about the 1822 half eagle? 0

[Zebo]

Posted yesterday ATS:

From the 100 greatest U.S. Coins by edition and in reference to the auction of the 1933 STG DE:

Top three listed as:

1st Ed. 1804 Dollar, 1913 Liberty Nickel, 1933 DE
2nd Ed. 1804 Dollar, 1913 Liberty Nickel, 1933 DE
3rd Ed. 1913 Liberty Nickel, 1907 UHR DE, 1933 DE
4th Ed. 1804 Dollar, 1913 Liberty Nickel, 1907 UHR DE (1933 listed in 4th place)
5th Ed. 1804 Dollar, 1849 DE, 1794 Dollar (1933 listed in 5th place)

6th edition will depend on how well the 1933 does in auction. Over 10 million it moves up (opinion)
Also - what happened to the 1804 Dollar in the 3rd edition - didn't place in the top three???

Has the 1933 DE started following the edition numbers (100 greatest)?

3rd Ed = third place

4th Ed = fourth place

5th Ed = fifth place

6th Ed = (sixth place if under 10 mil in auction???) or will it move back into third place or higher if over 10 mil???

AND - while we are at it - what about the 1822 half eagle up for auction next week? Over or under???

[jtryka]

I think the '33 will break $10M easily and might get to $20M.  Not sure what "place" that makes it, since for me and likely many others, the "greatest" coins are determined by more than price.

[GoldFinger1969]

23 minutes ago, jtryka said:

I think the '33 will break $10M easily and might get to $20M.  Not sure what "place" that makes it, since for me and likely many others, the "greatest" coins are determined by more than price.

Sotheby's guestimate is $10-$15 MM for both the 1933 Saint DE and the Inverted Jenny stamps.

Hard to believe the price could get to $20 MM for the 1933 but it is only 5% per year appreciation.  

Let the bidding begin ! 

 

[World Colonial]

There is an active thread on the PCGS forum.  I haven't posted in it in awhile, as I get tired of the inflated claims which I consider nonsense.

The only qualification I have to making a forecast is that with the ridiculous level of speculation occurring now in practically everything (including the stupidity with NFTs), practically anything is theoretically "possible".

I expect it to sell for around the same price it did last time in 2002, somewhat more or somewhat less.  It has a somewhat interesting (though IMO, exaggerated) story and yes, it is the only legally one available to own.

Concurrently, this doesn't change the fact that it's still one of purportedly about two dozen in existence.  The primary open question to me is whether two bidders will ignore this or not.

As usual, one of the claims tossed around in the other thread is the potential of a non-collector buying it, as the current owner purportedly isn't one.  However, whether the current owner is or isn't didn't mean they were a random buyer in 2002 because they weren't.  The Coin Week article specifically states they had "dreamed" of owning this type of coin since childhood which makes me suspect that at one point in life, they had been one.

I believe the prospects of a non-collector buying it are better than practically any other coin but concurrently very low.  When contemplating this type of purchase, there is no reason to believe they won't consider other art or collectible alternatives and I have never read a single post on any coin forum supporting it's compelling or competitively priced since comparing it to paintings is apples-oranges.

My opinion is that it should be worth somewhat more than the 1907 UHR.  Same series, about equally scarce, and better known coin with only one available.  A UHR recently sold for $3.6MM.  Per above, I expect to sell for twice or slightly more than "fair value".

[World Colonial]

56 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Sotheby's guestimate is $10-$15 MM for both the 1933 Saint DE and the Inverted Jenny stamps.

Hard to believe the price could get to $20 MM for the 1933 but it is only 5% per year appreciation.  

Let the bidding begin ! 

 

I don't know much about stamps but I do know that the Inverted Jenny isn't really rare.  A member ATS claimed about 90 exist.  I'm just not familiar on the premiums between blocks and singles since I am not a stamp collector.  I also didn't read how many are in this block though the image appeared to show four.  Regardless, I don't see it as desirable enough to be worth the estimate.

My understanding is that the estimate also includes the Magenta stamp (1856 British Guiana 1c) which to my knowledge is and has been the most valuable one for a long time.  It was claimed as #1 in my late 1970's Guinness Book of World Records edition.

[World Colonial]

1 hour ago, Zebo said:

AND - while we are at it - what about the 1822 half eagle up for auction next week? Over or under???

Positives:  It's also almost never available (three or four owners in over 100 years) and tons of money available to buy it if by some miracle a random non-collector decides to bid on it.

Cons: It's not particularly high quality in an environment which is obsessed with numismatic minutia quality differences.  It's also a small coin (much smaller than the 1933DE) and while I don't have a copy of Bowers' book and did not have a chance to read it, doesn't have as compelling a story.  It isn't nearly as well known where a non-collector would be as likely to notice it.

One thing I forgot in my prior post is that Sotheby's participation should help and so does (in theory) the more varied nature of the sale if this is true.  I'm not sure what else is in it other than the 1933 DE and those two stamps but understand there is more.  If it's only these three lots, it won't make as much of a difference.

[GoldFinger1969]

I never heard of the 1822 Half Eagle.  Granted, I don't focus on coins from 200 years ago.

The 1933 to me has pizzaz and a sexy story:  last of the double eagles...last of the gold coins before FDR's EO.....445,500+ made....."illegally" exchanged out of the Philly Mint....the tie-in to the 500 1928 Double Eagles that were stolen...the Treasury and Mint's obsession with this coin (pissed that Switt & Friends made nice $$$ on their coins while they worked for $2,500 a year)....trying to throw Fenton in jail in addition to taking his 1933 Saint....having to eat crow as the Treasury Export/Import Letter showed that they didn't know what the hell they were talking about....smearing Switt, the Langbords, and RWB at the trial for the Langbord coins with an incompetent judge sleeping through the proceedings.....and their so-called expert David "Hey, I Must Be An Expert 'Cause I Work At Sotheby's In New York" Tripp not knowing about the legality of coin exchanges and saying anything he doesn't do research on is an "orphan" document 'cause it disproves his baloney arguments.

Anybody bidding has enough $$$ that they could probably care less if the 11 coins held at Fort Knox ever make it out and reduce the price.  It's probably a low-risk now (<1%) and it's a rounding error to the net worth of the people who are likely to be bidding.

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm not sure, but Stuart Weitzman (the owner of the 1933 Saint and the other items) does not appear to be an ultra-rich billionaire.  It looks like his namesake commpany was sold for a couple of hundred million dollars in 2010 and 2012.  With cash salaries and investments over the years, he might be worth hundreds of millions or maybe even a billion or so. But I don't think he has been on the Forbes 400 list of billionaires.

My point is that if he spent $20 MM on the 3 items that it was probably a pretty good % of his liquid net worth.  It's not like he was some Silicon Valley tech billionaire.  He isn't that old, he's not in his 90's and close to death, so he may really want the $$$ from these sales to bulk up his charitable foundation.

[GoldFinger1969]

And when he was told that the Langbord coins had been found by Sotheby's CEO he dryly asked "Does this mean I have to buy another ten coins ?"  In retrospect, while he may not have needed a GoFundMe page if his 1933 Saint went down 50-70% in price if the 10 coins had entered the market (and/or he had to spend another $20-$30 MM buying the rest of the coins, which I don't think he would have wanted since he wanted unique one-of-a-kind items, not owning 10 or 11 items), he would have been ponying up decent $$$ for a man of his wealth.

I had thought that the buyer of the 1933 Saint was a super-rich hedge fund manager or maybe even David Koch (wealthiest Manhattanite before he died).  For someone who was worth $5-$20 billion, you wouldn't care if your 1933 Saint lost $5 MM in value or if you were asked to pony up another $20-$30 MM to buy all the remaining 1933's, assuming you were asked or even wanted to. 

The point being, with that kind of net-worth, you wouldn't think twice from a monetary perspective.  But as wealthy as Weitzman is, these 3 items might represent 2-5% of his total net worth.  For an ultra-rich billionaire, it would be closer to 0.1% or even less.

Edited March 20, 2021 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

I predict:

A. Someone will buy this 1933 double eagle for a lot of money. Sotheby's will receive a substantial commission.

B. Someone will buy this 1822 half eagle for a lot of money. Stack’s Bowers Galleries will receive a substantial commission.

Edited March 20, 2021 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

43 minutes ago, RWB said:

I predict:

A. Someone will buy this 1933 double eagle for a lot of money. Sotheby's will receive a substantial commission.

B. Someone will buy this 1822 half eagle for a lot of money. Stack’s Bowers Galleries will receive a substantial commission.

Any thoughts on those Inverted Jenny's ?  I wonder why they are allowed to be sold, if the Treasury or Post Office immediately went looking for them.

The whole thing is ridiculous....the stamps needed to be retracted because the plane was upside down....WHO THE HELL CARES ???!!!   Let them be used for postage or saved as a rarity.

The Feds went after them like it was stolen pages from the Manhattan Project. 

[GoldFinger1969]

What's the short story on this 1822 Half Eagle ?  I know nothing of this coin or the Half Eagles of that time period.

[Zebo]

As of yesterday - Hanson and Brush haven't discussed the 1933 and whether or not they'll go after it. My thought - yes, but with a limit.

[Alex in PA.]

9 hours ago, jtryka said:

I think the '33 will break $10M easily and might get to $20M. 

My oh my!  But I'm not surprised.  Until 'others', if they exist, turn up this should be a high demand piece. 

Sorry, but I will not be among the bidders.  

Edited March 20, 2021 by Alex in PA.
Spelling again

[GoldFinger1969]

2 hours ago, Zebo said:

As of yesterday - Hanson and Brush haven't discussed the 1933 and whether or not they'll go after it. My thought - yes, but with a limit.

I'll bet Legend will buy it and then pawn it off on one of their heavy hitters.

[World Colonial]

10 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Anybody bidding has enough $$$ that they could probably care less if the 11 coins held at Fort Knox ever make it out and reduce the price.  It's probably a low-risk now (<1%) and it's a rounding error to the net worth of the people who are likely to be bidding.

This goes back to our prior discussions.

First, the overwhelming probability is that a current US coin collector will buy it.

Second, the buyer will ignore the other coins if they believe the one who will buy from them will do likewise.  These people didn't become wealthy by ignoring resale.  I have read a lot of claims inferring this yet whenever I have read (mostly second hand) accounts of how they actually bid, they research their purchase carefully before setting their limit.

[World Colonial]

3 hours ago, Zebo said:

As of yesterday - Hanson and Brush haven't discussed the 1933 and whether or not they'll go after it. My thought - yes, but with a limit.

To my knowledge, the most valuable coin in Hansen's collection is the 1854-S half eagle he recently bought.  I don't keep up regularly with the mega thread on the PCGS forum and while I did read the list of coins he is missing to complete it, don't remember specifics.  My recollection is that he doesn't have many seven figure coins but this might have changed in the last year+ since I was reading the thread more regularly.

[World Colonial]

9 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

What's the short story on this 1822 Half Eagle ?  I know nothing of this coin or the Half Eagles of that time period.

Three known, two in the Smithsonian.

Mintage is about 19,000 but most believed to have been melted or struck with another date.

Four owners to my recollection in the last 115 years or so, so almost never a chance to buy it.  Currently owned by Pogue family, previously by Eliasberg and I think at one time by Virgil Brand but someone can correct me if I am wrong.

It doesn't have the story of the 1933 but it was still a lot more prominent than the 1933DE in the past, though this might possibly have been because no one could legally own it.  To my knowledge it used to be considered or was the most valuable US coin available for private ownership up to the late 1970's.  Q David Bowers wrote a book on it in preparation for its prior sale in 2015 when it did not sell.  I would like to buy it but have never seen it for sale and never read it.  It was a form of marketing the coin.

It last sold for $687,500 in 1982 in the Eliasberg sale, same price as the 1870-S $3 gold.  By comparison, J-1776 (believed to be worth more than twice now) sold for about $500,000 to Steve Markoff somewhere around 1979.

[GoldFinger1969]

I saw a pic of the 1822, it is a nice-looking gold coin. 

But it's 1/4th the size of the Saint and even if you confine your interests to gold coins generally or Eagles specifically....there are SO MANY coins that you can go back and say are unique.  Quarter-Eagle....Half-Eagle....Eagle.....Double Eagles from 1849 on.

I guess my attraction to Saints -- despite them costing so much more, even if I pay only a nominal premium to bullion value -- is that they are the largest denomination and the largest coin in terms of visibility for my limited resource$$$ and storing space. 

For me, that matters.  For the folks with 3 rooms to house their thousands or tens of thousands of coins, I guess it doesn't matter.  

[World Colonial]

33 minutes ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

I saw a pic of the 1822, it is a nice-looking gold coin. 

But it's 1/4th the size of the Saint and even if you confine your interests to gold coins generally or Eagles specifically....there are SO MANY coins that you can go back and say are unique.  Quarter-Eagle....Half-Eagle....Eagle.....Double Eagles from 1849 on.

I guess my attraction to Saints -- despite them costing so much more, even if I pay only a nominal premium to bullion value -- is that they are the largest denomination and the largest coin in terms of visibility for my limited resource$$$ and storing space. 

For me, that matters.  For the folks with 3 rooms to house their thousands or tens of thousands of coins, I guess it doesn't matter.  

Yes, the size of the coni matters, a lot,  Concurrently, it isn't necessarily the most important factor.

Outside of maybe die varieties, I'm not aware of any regular issue US gold coin (not even one) that is unique.  The 1870-S is $3 gold has two to my knowledge, but the other one is in the cornerstone of the SF Mint so it's not exactly like it will be available to be bought any time soon.

There are a noticeable number of actually rare 18th and 19th century US gold.  Most of the Capped Head half eagles are legitimately scarce or rare; all but the 1813.  Many of the Liberty Head quarter eagle, half eagle, and eagles are too but this is mostly because the mintages were low or very low.

If you are making the point that having so many rare dates in a series dilutes the significance, I agree with you.  This is my opinion why actually common 20th century key dates (e.g., 09-S VDB cent and 16-0D dime) had the prior inflated perception which is retained somewhat to this day.

[RWB]

11 hours ago, GoldFinger1969 said:

Any thoughts on those Inverted Jenny's ?

When they inverted, all the mail bags fell out on Col Green's front yard.

[zadok]

interesting thread for the most part....since its March Madness time...ill go ahead n predict that all three of Stuart's rarities will exceed the estimates....

[GoldFinger1969]

1 minute ago, zadok said:

interesting thread for the most part....since its March Madness time...ill go ahead n predict that all three of Stuart's rarities will exceed the estimates....

All you need is 1 serious collector (i.e., Simpson or Hansen) and 1 trophy collector like Weitzman but with more $$$ like a social media or tech billionaire.

And what if a firm like Legend has a standing offer to buy it back plus 10% at any price or maybe up to $25 MM ?

The bidding could get nuts, as George Costanza would say.....

 

[Conder101]

On 3/19/2021 at 10:39 PM, World Colonial said:

Cons: It's not particularly high quality in an environment which is obsessed with numismatic minutia quality differences.

But it is the absolute finest one available. 

 

On 3/20/2021 at 12:25 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Any thoughts on those Inverted Jenny's ?  I wonder why they are allowed to be sold,

From my understanding the one sheet was sold to a postal customer before the error was noticed.  Since the sale from the government to the customer had been finalized they had no right to demand it back.  Same logic as with the Farouk 33 DE.  The government had issued the license and it was now legal.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Conder101

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, Conder101 said:

From my understanding the one sheet was sold to a postal customer before the error was noticed.  Since the sale from the government to the customer had been finalized they had no right to demand it back.  Same logic as with the Farouk 33 DE.  The government had issued the license and it was now legal.

I think I saw an article when Weitzman's name was revealed that said 100 of the Inverted Jenny's were sold and the Post Office or Treasury people immediately tried to get it back.  Same thing with the 1933 Saints a decade after they got out.

[zadok]

yes one sheet of 100 stamps was sold....three other sheets reported as being destroyed ....the 100 stamp sheet divided into one block of 8, seven blocks of 4 n 64 singles ...several of the blocks of 4 subsequently divided even further...possibly the block of 8 also further divided....reportedly the stamps were numbered on the backs to provide for documentation n future accounting for provenance...there was an attempt to conduct a survey of all know example a few years ago....

[World Colonial]

So it is a block of four being auctioned here?  No way I see this being worth $12 million.  It's a ridiculous price.

[World Colonial]

2 hours ago, Conder101 said:

But it is the absolute finest one available. 

It is presumably the most valuable circulated coin available but I still think it should be worth more than other more common coins in higher or much higher quality.  Same opinion for the 1861 CSA half dollar and numerous others.

[zadok]

well time will tell.....it is the only plate block of 4 so it has a higher premium than the other known blocks of 4.....plus there is an over abundance of cash sitting on the sidelines just looking for a place to go...

[GoldFinger1969]

1 hour ago, zadok said:

yes one sheet of 100 stamps was sold....three other sheets reported as being destroyed ....the 100 stamp sheet divided into one block of 8, seven blocks of 4 n 64 singles ...several of the blocks of 4 subsequently divided even further...possibly the block of 8 also further divided....reportedly the stamps were numbered on the backs to provide for documentation n future accounting for provenance...there was an attempt to conduct a survey of all know example a few years ago....

So if the Feds went after the stamps right after they realized the mistake.....how come they never got them ?  I can't believe they stayed hidden for long.  And even if they did....once collectors had them....why weren't the stamps confiscated like the 1933 Saints were in the 1940's and 1950's ?

Edited March 23, 2021 by GoldFinger1969