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2019 "W" proof and reverse proof Cent. What's your opinion?

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This is from the US Mint regarding the "W" proof cent. It's the chat I had with an agent: 

11:27:48 [Customer] Scott..is the following true? The website shows an "S" penny.
11:27:52 [Customer] The US Mint has announced that a 2019-W Proof Cent will be included with all purchases of the 2019 United States Mint Proof Set, which goes on sale March 1. This is the first cent to feature the ‘W’ mint mark of the West Point Mint. NGC is celebrating this historic coin with a special attribution of First “W” Mint Mark Cent, as well as NGC’s West Point Mint Gold Star Label, both of which are provided for no additional fee. Learn more: NGCcoin.com/news/article/7222
11:29:48 [Kimberly] Yes, this is true. A special West Point (W) Penny will be included as a free with purchase for the following sets: 3/1 2019 Proof Set (19RG) will include a proof penny struck at West Point, 4/24 2019 Silver Proof Set (19RH) will include a reverse proof penny struck at West Point, and 5/14 2019 Uncirculated Coin Set (19RJ) will include a uncirculatedfinish penny struck at West Point.
11:30:52 [Customer] Thanks. So how come the description hasn't been changed on the website?
11:32:39 [Kimberly] The information is listed and click here to view, scroll down for the Proof Set 2019
11:32:41 [Kimberly] .*
11:32:44 [Kimberly] It's my pleasure! Is there anything else I can assist you with today?

 I'm fairly new to collecting, but this sounds like a bombshell announcement. I guess there's also going to be a reverse proof cent in the silver? proof set. Can someone expound on this and tell me if this is as big of a deal as I think it is?

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Well.....it depends on what you mean by a big deal.  From a collecting of US coins standpoint, it is significant as these three coins will be the very first US cents to carry a W mint mark.  However, if you're talking from a monetary value standpoint, then I don't think that they will be coins of a high value.  All three of the sets offering the different versions of the 2019-W cent have unlimited mintages and no household limits.  Anyone who wants one, two or all three and who can order directly from the US Mint will be able to get them, guaranteed.  In considering this, the 2019-W cents are items that will have an unlimited mintage, and a lot of people are going to order them.  That means that there's not even flipping potential except for maybe the first few PF 70's that pop up on the market.  The important thing to remember here is that virtually this same thing has already happened.......in 1996, with the 1996-W dime in the 1996 Mint Set.  As far as I know, that, too, was an unlimited mintage product at a time when the coin collecting hobby was nowhere near the size that it is now as the 1990's were the doldrums for coin collecting.  There were 1,457,949 1996 Mint Sets sold.  In spite of the fact that the 1996-W dime was a one-year only, special West Point coin, you can still snag them raw for under $20 today.  I've been able to buy whole 1996 Mint Sets for between $15-$20 dollars.  The 2019-W Cents are going to be just like the 1996-W dime, in my opinion.  They may hold a value of $10-$20 over time based on how many of them actually end up being purchased, but you can be sure that the final mintage figures on these are going to be high with the fact that the mintages on these will not be limited.

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20 hours ago, investinrehabs said:

Mohawk, 

Great points. I think with the unlimited production, that will keep values low. It would have been nice if they came out with each coin being a limited run. Thanks for your opinion. 

I completely agree with you.  I sell a lot of modern US coins.....it's how I fund my collecting.  If I thought these would be something that would be profitable to buy and resell, I'd be getting in on it, believe me.  I'm not.  I'm not touching any of these sets.  I think this is a great thing for actual collectors of Lincoln Cents and other US coins who want the coin for its own sake, but not one for making a profit now or really ever.   The 1996-W dime is 23 years old.  The 1996 Mint Set originally sold for $8.  It now sells for $20 at most.  Adjusted for inflation, that $8 would be about $13 today.  A $7 profit in 23 years isn't a great return, I'd say.  The 2019-W cents will be the same story.

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17 hours ago, Numismatic, A.A.S. said:

I think the above posts are right on...can't really see in value in these. Just more high mintage situation with no growth potential...I'm not being negative, just in my experience with Moderns, there's only been about 6 or 8 worth owning and holding since 2006...

You're right, at least as far as US Moderns go......2006 was pretty much the cutoff with a few exceptions.  So far, I've seen nothing in the 2019 US Mint lineup that would be worth getting in on and holding, unless the American Legion commems sell poorly.  There are some World moderns which have done considerably better, though.  It's unfair to lump them in with the whole US modern situation.

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I find this to be true of just about everything that is collected / collectable, not just coins: If it is made to be collectable, it's not going to be valuable or accrue much value over time because there will be too many of them kept / saved in good condition. At the same time, if it's heavily promoted or made a big deal out of, it's going to be mostly hot air - it's going to be hype, but it won't produce long term value. You might see short term hypes and micro-bubbles from the buzz they generate, but this usually fades within 1-2 years and prices go down, not up. The things that really gain value are the things that no one was paying attention to and not expecting to be great / popular.

I think the mints of the world have gotten too good at mass producing collectables posing as coins. These things are fun to look at. They're fun to collect. I collect / have collected / will continue to collect some of them. But I will never look to these to be great "investments" or profit generators. I expect them to have no potential for holding and flipping later.

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On 2/27/2019 at 2:58 PM, Mohawk said:

Well.....it depends on what you mean by a big deal.  From a collecting of US coins standpoint, it is significant as these three coins will be the very first US cents to carry a W mint mark....

I feel like, at this point, there has to be some slub at the US Mint that probably obscenely makes $100,000-200,000 a year and does nothing but sit around asking themselves what is out there in terms of denoms, mintmarks, etc. that they haven't done before so they can trot one out to generate just a tiny bit of buzz to sell sets.

I love this hobby but things like this really just tell me that the mint just views the collecting community as a revenue stream. I think, as cashless transactions become more common, the US mint is less about making money for circulation / to support the economy and is just another corporation-like entity making products to shill.

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Would you guys lump the Silver Eagles in the same category as above? It seems like these could be a good investment if you expect the price of silver to rise. I'm asking as an investor and not a collector. 

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On 2/28/2019 at 7:07 PM, szugelder said:

Would you guys lump the Silver Eagles in the same category as above? It seems like these could be a good investment if you expect the price of silver to rise. I'm asking as an investor and not a collector. 

As having and maintaining collectible value over the long term, then yes, absolutely.  I have many reasons to feel that Silver Eagles are as popular as they're ever going to be right now.  As I've said many times here, much of the US coin market is headed in a downward correction as many collectors of classic US material are older collectors.  However, one group of moderns that this absolutely applies to as well are the Eagle coins, especially the Silver Eagle.  Many younger collectors choose different 1 ounce coins to collect than the ASE.  The Canadian Maple Leaf, various Australian issues, the Mexican Libertad and the British Britannia are likely the most popular ones.  Many younger collectors, at least the ones I know, find the ASE to feel dated, plain and even dumpy compared to what other mints around the world are offering now.  There's a lot of competition on the World silver stage now.  ASE's also have ridiculously high mintages compared to many of the other .999 Silver coins I mentioned above, so the scarcity isn't there either.  The ASE has almost nothing to offer the younger generation of collectors and nothing that helps it compete for their collecting dollars.

As lumps of silver, well, then maybe.  But keep in mind that bullion markets fluctuate constantly, which would impact the pricing of the ASE's, likely more so than the other silver coins I mentioned as the collector base declines over the coming years.

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9 hours ago, Revenant said:

I think the mints of the world have gotten too good at mass producing collectables posing as coins. These things are fun to look at. They're fun to collect. I collect / have collected / will continue to collect some of them. But I will never look to these to be great "investments" or profit generators. I expect them to have no potential for holding and flipping later.

Exactly....this how I see and understand it, there is just too much (RCM) stuff out there from other countries...weird and exotic is OK, but it had a place in coins which ends up never really having Great potential...

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The problem with the Eagle is that you pay a premium price for the proof. So it isn't a sound "silver" investment. IF silver goes way up, there's so many Eagles out there, I don't see them going up proportionately. Yes, they may go up a bit, but imo, you're better off collecting rounds if you're investing in strictly silver. But I still think the Eagle is a beautiful coin. They just make too many! 

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13 hours ago, szugelder said:

Would you guys lump the Silver Eagles in the same category as above? It seems like these could be a good investment if you expect the price of silver to rise. I'm asking as an investor and not a collector. 

The bullion strikes have been in one or two cases - 1996 stands out. I think there have been some reverse proofs that did well for a while but I've been out of touch with the series for 10 years. At least the bullion strikes tend to maintain their premium over spot if they stay in good shape.

I agree with others that the proofs don't and probably won't appreciate much past about $40-50 unless it's a PF70 and someone is paying for a label to compete here. Even then I don't expect those to track up and down with silver.

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8 hours ago, investinrehabs said:

The problem with the Eagle is that you pay a premium price for the proof. So it isn't a sound "silver" investment. IF silver goes way up, there's so many Eagles out there, I don't see them going up proportionately. Yes, they may go up a bit, but imo, you're better off collecting rounds if you're investing in strictly silver. But I still think the Eagle is a beautiful coin. They just make too many! 

That's one of my main points in why I think that ASE's aren't really a good numismatic investment.  They make WAY too many of them, in addition to the design feeling stale to many younger collectors.  And, not only are the Proofs overpriced, now you have to buy two of them a year if you collect these as series.  That's another thing that I feel makes the ASE look kind of bad in the future.  Not that all modern mints aren't guilty of this same thing, but the US Mint is getting too greedy.  The ASE program used to be simple, one bullion strike and one proof a year.  Two coins, and that was it.  And if you only wanted to collect one type, that was only one coin a year.  But then they made the 1995-W proof, and that opened their eyes to the possibility of different mint marks expanding the amount of coins sold in a year, but I'd argue that this wasn't exploited until 2006, with the 20th Anniversary Set.  The 20th Anniversary of the program was worthy of commemorating, but did we really need the 2011 5 coin set, the 2012 and 2013 sets and the 2017-S offering, which is what really opened Pandora's Box in regards to making two proof coins a year?  Do we really need various special Uncirculated issues that differ from bullion coins by having a very slightly different finish and a mintmark?  All of these things past the 2006 set have solidified the fact to me that the ASE is the US Mints ultimate cash cow, and all of these special offerings past the 2006 sets have all been unnecessary cash grabs by the US Mint.  While some collectors feel these offerings have enhanced the ASE program, I'd say that to other collectors, they have tainted it.  Instead of a simple program with two offerings a year, one proof and one business strike, you now have bullion coins being certified as being struck at a bunch of different facilities based on the shipping straps on the 500 coin boxes, you have two proofs from two different facilities, you have an uncirculated coin with a mint mark......it's just gotten ridiculous.  If the US Mint would streamline the program and cut it down to a reasonable number of yearly offerings and, in my opinion, a newer, more appealing design, the ASE could go back to being a reasonable collectible.  However, I feel the damage has already been done.  They've beaten the horse to death and they still continue to beat it. 

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I am interested in finding out if it is going to be copper like the '09 Mint Sets were. Hehe! I managed to get my hands on those a couple months back. It would be great if they would start doing proofs and special editions like this one in Copper. Plus I hate the thought of anything cheap being stamped at WP.

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On 3/2/2019 at 6:04 AM, KarenHolcomb said:

I am interested in finding out if it is going to be copper like the '09 Mint Sets were. Hehe! I managed to get my hands on those a couple months back. It would be great if they would start doing proofs and special editions like this one in Copper. Plus I hate the thought of anything cheap being stamped at WP.

Hi Karen,

I doubt that they'd think to make it in copper.  As I've said before, it seems that if the US Mint can find a way to screw something up, they pursue that course of action to its fullest extent.  But, then again, they did just move from 90% Silver to .999 Silver, which was a good move.  Maybe they'll surprise us and make these in the earlier bronze or brass compositions.  It'd make them more interesting, that's for sure.  Don't get me wrong, as a proud New Yorker, I'd love to see something interesting from the West Point Mint.  I just don't think these cents are going to be it. 

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13 hours ago, Mohawk said:

Hi Karen,

I doubt that they'd think to make it in copper.  As I've said before, it seems that if the US Mint can find a way to screw something up, they pursue that course of action to its fullest extent.  But, then again, they did just move from 90% Silver to .999 Silver, which was a good move.  Maybe they'll surprise us and make these in the earlier bronze or brass compositions.  It'd make them more interesting, that's for sure.  Don't get me wrong, as a proud New Yorker, I'd love to see something interesting from the West Point Mint.  I just don't think these cents are going to be it. 

I called the mint and they said it won't be copper.

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2 hours ago, investinrehabs said:

I called the mint and they said it won't be copper.

I'm not surprised.  Of course they wouldn't make it copper.  That'd make it too interesting.  Another great idea, brought to you by the same people who brought you the "pink" gold Breast Cancer $5, the ridiculous 5 ounce Apollo 11 dollar,  the Apollo 11 Half Dollar set with two clad coins in fancy packaging for $53.95 and two different Proof ASE's a year.

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On 3/3/2019 at 9:23 PM, Mohawk said:

Hi Karen,

I doubt that they'd think to make it in copper.  As I've said before, it seems that if the US Mint can find a way to screw something up, they pursue that course of action to its fullest extent.  But, then again, they did just move from 90% Silver to .999 Silver, which was a good move.  Maybe they'll surprise us and make these in the earlier bronze or brass compositions.  It'd make them more interesting, that's for sure.  Don't get me wrong, as a proud New Yorker, I'd love to see something interesting from the West Point Mint.  I just don't think these cents are going to be it. 

Well, they did the 2009 mint sets, so you never know.

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4 hours ago, KarenHolcomb said:

Well, they did the 2009 mint sets, so you never know.

So true Karen.  But I feel like the US Mint was almost in a different mindset then, where they would think of something cool like that.  Now, they do things like make a 5 ounce curved silver monstrosity that they called a "dollar" and a $54 set with two clad coins and very fancy packaging and their idea of something cool and different is making two proof ASE's each year with different mint marks.  It would have been nice had they made these in copper, but I'm not surprised that they didn't.

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9 hours ago, KarenHolcomb said:

Yeah, they suck.

I agree with you, sadly.  They do suck these days.  I think they need to listen to more input from collectors when they are devising their products.....they'd likely have better output that way.  As it stands now, I have no idea who is deciding some of these things are good ideas nor why they think so,

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What about the 2019-W reverse proof cent? If they release the cent with the limited edition proof set, there can only be 50,000 of those cents released, making it the lowest minted cent! A real sleeper that no one is talking about. What say you?

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3 minutes ago, lifersteve said:

What about the 2019-W reverse proof cent? If they release the cent with the limited edition proof set, there can only be 50,000 of those cents released, making it the lowest minted cent! A real sleeper that no one is talking about. What say you?

I believe that the 2019-W Reverse Proof is being released with the regular silver proof set, so the mintage will be much higher than 50,000.  I haven't heard if it's going to be released with the limited edition set as well, but if it is, it just means that there will be 50,000 more made in addition to all of those sold with the regular silver proof set.  If they do release the reverse proof with both the regular and the limited silver proof sets, it'll likely be the highest mintage of all of the 2019-W cents.  I don't think any of these cents will be rare at all.  It's the 1996-W dime all over again.  I think that, depending on how many of each format of the 2019-W cents are sold, these coins may hold a value of between $10 and $20 in the long run.  However, the packaging on these looks pretty bad, so there may be some upside for those that are graded 70. 

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39 minutes ago, lifersteve said:

Dang it! The mint should have gone that way, I forgot about the regular sliver proof set! Released with only the limited edition set could have been a WOW factor!!

As Karen and I said above.....the US Mint sucks these days.  If anyone can make something seem special at first glance and then make it anything but, it's the US Mint.  Makes me very glad I'm a Canada guy, though the RCM has its moments, too.

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The "Silver Eagles" were the bomb up to 2011. I could not hold onto a PF70UC or MS70 as they would sell as fast as I submitted or purchased them. When the U.S. mint started the "W" and "S" No Mint Mark --- the collectors lost interest and their wonderful sets were sold due to lack of interest putting unnecessary cash in the mints pocket. In 1992 the mint started their first Silver Proof sets. They went well and also had  the Prestige Proof sets with Silver. The total coin count for proofs had gone up with the silver additions but not as much to detour the collector interest and still a joy to find.and add to a set.

 1999 --- The change of U.S. coin era!! That's funny - I just read a NGC news letter that said the same thing about today's NEW silver coinage. :roflmao: In 1999 we got the new state quarter program which turned into Territories and then parks --- WHY??  Cause the collectors ate up the sets they were pumping out!  The Sacgjawea  dollar and President dollar program just adding even more coins to our 5 coin proof set in the 80's and 10 coin mint sets. Now the proof sets have  20 or more coins and the mint set has 28 or more coins. And of course there were the stupid 2005 to 2010 SMS mint sets?? The mint sold so many sets that they ruined the collecting value and broke a lot of collectors that were not aware what they were getting into.

 I would be VERY cautious on any modern U.S. coin investment the U.S. mint offers up!!  :) 

Rick

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58 minutes ago, Six Mile Rick said:

The "Silver Eagles" were the bomb up to 2011. I could not hold onto a PF70UC or MS70 as they would sell as fast as I submitted or purchased them. When the U.S. mint started the "W" and "S" No Mint Mark --- the collectors lost interest and their wonderful sets were sold due to lack of interest putting unnecessary cash in the mints pocket. In 1992 the mint started their first Silver Proof sets. They went well and also had  the Prestige Proof sets with Silver. The total coin count for proofs had gone up with the silver additions but not as much to detour the collector interest and still a joy to find.and add to a set.

 1999 --- The change of U.S. coin era!! That's funny - I just read a NGC news letter that said the same thing about today's NEW silver coinage. :roflmao: In 1999 we got the new state quarter program which turned into Territories and then parks --- WHY??  Cause the collectors ate up the sets they were pumping out!  The Sacgjawea  dollar and President dollar program just adding even more coins to our 5 coin proof set in the 80's and 10 coin mint sets. Now the proof sets have  20 or more coins and the mint set has 28 or more coins. And of course there were the stupid 2005 to 2010 SMS mint sets?? The mint sold so many sets that they ruined the collecting value and broke a lot of collectors that were not aware what they were getting into.

 I would be VERY cautious on any modern U.S. coin investment the U.S. mint offers up!!  :) 

Rick

You're right Rick.  There were some great US Moderns in days past......things like the 1970-S Small Date Cent, the 1979 and 1981 Type 2 coins, many of the early Silver Eagles, the Matte Proof Jeffersons and Kennedy Half......I could list more.  But the US Mint of yesteryear no longer exists.  What they put out now is ridiculous.  Did we really need a 5 ounce, curved silver dollar? Or a 5 ounce anything for that matter of fact? Or a pink, more like pink-ish, gold $5? Do we really need at least four different silver eagles in a single year? Are proof and mint sets comprising at least 20 coins really appealing?  I'd say no.  The modern mints (I'm not excluding the RCM or any others) have really taken things too far.  There was a time when the US Mint offered a Mint Set of 10, 12 or 13 coins, A Proof Set of 5 or 6 coins, Proof Gold, Silver and Platinum Eagles and a Commemorative or two in a year and that was it.  There was a time when the RCM offered a Proof Like Set and that was it.  Later, the RCM offered a Proof Like Set or Mint Set, a Specimen Set, a Proof Set and a couple of commemoratives a year and that was it.  Those were the great days of moderns, when modern coins were issued that were easy and fun to collect and when you had a decent chance of getting something that would hold its value or even go up some for you.  I'd say that the 1990's were the beginning of the end of that, 1999 for the US and 1992 for Canada.  The State Quarters and the Canadian Province Quarters showed that these mints could put almost anything out and in ridiculous numbers and people would pay for them.  And, now, here in 2019, it's just absolutely ridiculous!  There are so many offerings and so many of them are of sufficiently high mintages or are such blatant gimmicks that they have a moment where they are hot and then they die.  I wasn't collecting in the good old days, but I miss the mindset then.  And the offerings were often better.  That's why I focus in mainly on Canadian coins from the 1950's to the 1990's these days.  There was good stuff offered then, and I know that's true for you US guys as well.  There are times in life where one has to look to the past to move forward, and I think that the US Mint and the RCM both need to do that very thing.

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Tom,

 Today's  best U.S. moderns are still around but they were not offered by the mint. I made a nice nest egg off of searching 2005 to 2010 bank rolls for Top Pop business strikes. :)

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