Price Spreads Same Grade

[LINCOLNMAN]

Just curious. NOT including coins at the $5k+ level, where do you see the greatest price spreads for coins of the same (ostensible) grade? Could be a type or specific date/mintmark. And why, do you suppose? 

I'm putting a 1912 year set together and have been looking at the $10 in 64. Recent auction records show quite a swing for a fairly common coin. Looking at the auction photos alone I think I can see why. Many of these 64's appear scruffy, certainly not "near gem". Photos can mislead of course, but the ones that do look scruffy seem to realize 63 prices and the differences are very material. Simple gradeflation?  

 

[MarkFeld]

19 minutes ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

Just curious. NOT including coins at the $5k+ level, where do you see the greatest price spreads for coins of the same (ostensible) grade? Could be a type or specific date/mintmark. And why, do you suppose? 

I'm putting a 1912 year set together and have been looking at the $10 in 64. Recent auction records show quite a swing for a fairly common coin. Looking at the auction photos alone I think I can see why. Many of these 64's appear scruffy, certainly not "near gem". Photos can mislead of course, but the ones that do look scruffy seem to realize 63 prices and the differences are very material. Simple gradeflation?  

 

Not “simple gradeflation”, but rather, a combination of 1) inconsistent grading and 2) coins of the same assigned grade can vary considerably in terms of quality and eye-appeal. As a result, there are large price differences/spreads among just about all coins and grades where there is a sufficient difference in value between two different grades.

[numisport]

2 hours ago, MarkFeld said:

Not “simple gradeflation”, but rather, a combination of 1) inconsistent grading and 2) coins of the same assigned grade can vary considerably in terms of quality and eye-appeal. As a result, there are large price differences/spreads among just about all coins and grades where there is a sufficient difference in value between two different grades.

This is a 'right on the money' observation that should be considered before any purchase is made. I paid high end money for a 1942 cent in NGC Pf 66 RD holder after looking at a few lesser appealing coins. I certainly would not buy the next grade up at 5k and more especially when the only difference between mine and the Pf 67 RD coin is a hidden hairline. And mine shows cameo contrast to boot !

[RWB]

The rare coin market is incredibly small - so tiny that individual transactions easily skew average and range. Combined with the factors Mark and numisport mention, prediction is nearly a game of chance.

[Conder101]

Simple answer, not all MS-64's were created equal.  That was one of the early misconceptions in the early years of the grading services and the idea that investions could buy coins like shares of stock.  The idea was that certified grading would make coins "fungible" and as long as the coins had the same grade on was the same as any other.  It would usher in a market where you could buy sight unseen because a 65 was a 65 was a 65 and as long as the slab said 65 that was good enough. A sight unseen market was actually established, and the bid prices fell through the floor.  because you would get stuck with whatever piece of junk managed to get graded at the level you specified, and since the label said it was that grade you were obligated to accept it.  So to protect your self you bid LOW.

[LINCOLNMAN]

Thank you all for your comments. I thought perhaps that yesterday's 63's were today's 64's, at least insofar as gold is concerned. 

[numisport]

I think the real eye opener in this series (like nearly all other series) is price guide down arrows for nearly all varieties of 10 $ Indians. This shouldn't be a big surprise since these are not fair market values anyhow but just the downward trends might indicate some good picks lurking...... or not.

[LINCOLNMAN]

3 hours ago, numisport said:

I think the real eye opener in this series (like nearly all other series) is price guide down arrows for nearly all varieties of 10 $ Indians. This shouldn't be a big surprise since these are not fair market values anyhow but just the downward trends might indicate some good picks lurking...... or not.

Picked up a 1912 62 on GC last night for the date set (dad's DOB). Photo nice and email exchange okay. Figured $170 over melt, what the heck. 

[MarkFeld]

6 hours ago, LINCOLNMAN said:

Thank you all for your comments. I thought perhaps that yesterday's 63's were today's 64's, at least insofar as gold is concerned. 

That’s true in many cases, but only part of the answer to your original question.