Baltimore Observations and Wild Experience

[TomB]

Howdy Folks-

 

I just returned from Baltimore and see that there is some major upheaval at PCGS and so this thread will not be posted there. It is here only. I'd like to relate my experience at and observations of the Baltimore show that I attended on Friday only.

 

Normally, I like to get to the show on Thursday and then spend Thursday and Friday there, however, the person I was traveling with could not make Thursday's show so I changed my schedule to accomodate him. Unfortunately, Friday morning he called my cell phone to let me know he had to cancel completely. So much for my change of plans.

 

It was a relatively light turnout first thing Friday morning so I was easily able to navigate the bourse and look for coins. Several dealers asked me if I had anything for sale since they could see what type of bag I was carrying but I already had some people in mind for the coins I brought for sale. There were a few people with many, many nicely toned Morgans for sale. Quite a few nicely toned Morgans are turning up in the newer, gold-label, PCI holders. The toning appears to be completely natural but the grading may be a hair generous. I didn't see as much gold as I expected but I did see more slabbed Barber material, both MS and PF, than there I usually see.

 

A short while into the show I was able to make my first purchases, these were a few very nicely toned PF IHCs and I was quite happy to pay the premium for them. In truth, this really isn't a premium as I believe that the attractive coins from this PF series are undervalued and that the Greysheet and other price guides are influenced too heavily on the doggy, no eye appeal coins that are extremely commonly found. This same scenario is also present with classic commems since so many dipped-out coins trade at low prices and bring down the perceived value of original, attractive coins. Anyway, there were precious few nicely toned Roosevelts and Washingtons that were priced in a manner that I thought made sense. This scares me somewhat as I have made a place for myself in this niche of numismatics and am now either squeezed out of many coins or simply think that the pricing structure is flawed for quite a few individual coins. Please note, I am not talking about the series in general, rather, the individual coin on a case-by-case basis. There was a bit of early, circulated type that was nice and loads of red Lincoln cents. Also, oddly enough, there were more nice two cent pieces than I ever remember at a show. Toned foreign coinage was present in full force and was starting to move in dollar value. Much of this material was superbly toned.

 

I did not view the Heritage auction lots but heard from three knowledgeable dealers that the Washington quarters were weak and not worth the time or money, in general.

 

Eventually I met up with wondercoin and we sat by another dealer's table and talked coins. I took out a box of monster toned coins that were NOT FOR SALE and passed them around to be looked at and to get opinions on. The dealer, who will remain anonymous unless he mentions whom he is, picked out three relatively common date, high grade, but not top graded, coins from that box and asked "How much?". Since they weren't for sale I told him to forget an offer. He really liked the coins and kept asking. I have been through this before and have never broke because the offers were less than I, personally, valued the coins at. We continued to talk and finally the dealer took out a piece of paper and wrote a number on it. He slid the paper across the table to me and said "How about this much". Before I looked at it we had wondercoin look at the number and I knew I was in trouble because wondercoin's eyebrows made a reflexive, quick movement up when he saw the number. I took the paper and opened it up and...sold the coins.

 

It was an extraordinary offer for an extraordinary group of toned coins. Essentially, this dealer paid me nearly the full price of coins that were monsters and one grade higher than the three coins he bought. He is not stupid. Rather, he is knowledgable and confident and has a right to believe that the three coins will upgrade. They were not upgrade candidates as people normally think of, they were monsters in holders that were not sufficient for the coins. If the dealer in question wants to write the details I will let him. At the show he told me he thought it would be interesting to have a thread about it but I do not want to steal his thunder.

 

It is likely the principle coin in the group, an MS67 Washington quarter, will be in an MS68 holder soon. Some will argue that the coin is really an MS67 in an MS68 holder because of its history but this is not reality. The coin was/is an MS68 in an MS67 holder and was sold as such. In other words, MS67 money never came into play here. Many people view coin prices as a stepwise gradient since the current grading system uses this stepwise demarcation. However, coins, like other things, exist in a continuum of preservation, excellence and eye appeal. These coins are among the best examples available and were sold as such. The price guides do not come into play.

 

Give this dealer a heck of a lot of credit for having the conviction in his knowledge to pull off this deal.

 

After the deal was complete the dealer told me he offered quite a bit more than he would normally offer since he knew I was not interested in selling the coins. Also, I don't negotiate much in coin deals; I ask for your best price or best offer and if it doesn't meet what I am willing to do then I pass. There is no second chance with me. This dealer knew this and acted accordingly. I was in mourning and was happy. In mourning because three old friends were finding a new home. Happy because someone who valued the coins more than I did ended up with them.

 

Immediately following this sale I mentioned it to three Board members and then bought three coins I simply did not have the funds to buy previously. It worked out well. Later, I met up with EVP and we had dinner with two other specialists and talked coins for hours.

 

Overall, I had a great show.

[IrishMike]

Great report and great story about selling your coins. I completely agree with you on the toned IHC's. The ones I saw at FUN are still etched in my mind.

[braddick]

Tom, great show report! I'm dieing to know the details of those coins and hope (prod, prod) the Dealer will read this Thread and fill us in!

 

I know the offer had to be killer for you to part with those beauties!

 

Thanks for the write-up, you have a gift for getting up close and personal and feeling right like we are there.

[gmarguli]

A few thoughts:

 

I believe one of the reasons that nicely toned PF IHCs are cheap is that the services will usually give them the RB or BN designation, even if the underlying surfaces of the coin is 100%. I've seen some coins with bright red and green color on top of 100% red surfaces and they were given the RB designation. Purple color seems to automatically get a coin the BN designation. Many Indian people are looking for full red color. Non-Indian collectors aren't as easily attracted to a "second tier" coin like a RN or BN.

 

I wonder if the reason for the lack of gold was due to the recent price drop? It's dropped $20 in the last couple of days. Since many dealers buy/sell gold on VERY small margins, they could have taken it off the market hoping for a price spike in the near future.

 

Toned foreign coins have been heating up for the last few months. I assume it has been doing this for several reasons. The market for toned US has gone insane, so it is natural that some collectors have shifted over to foreign as they become priced out of the market. A couple of years ago I wouldn't have touched a foreign coin. Now I looking for them. I've picked up several pieces anticipating a price increase. The Canadian registry might also be a reason. Although it has been a bust so far, I'm sure there are many people now looking at foreign coins hoping that it takes off and that more countries are added. If slabbed foreign coins does take off, toned ones should be right behind.

 

As for selling your "not for sale" coins, I feel for you. I know how it is. One of the reasons I don't often post pictures of my coins that often is that I was once offered about 3X what I paid for a coin I really liked. It was not for sale, but this offer made it very hard to turn down. After that I realized that I didn't want people making offers on my collection, because some day they would make an offer I couldn't pass up.

 

[Beijim]

Tom, thanks for an excellent post and a great story. It sounds like a true win-win for you and a dealer who had the integrity not to insult you with lowball needling. I respect that. Best of all, you were able to play at the show and acquire some new friends. Er, coins, I mean .

 

Beijim

 

[BankNote1]

Interesting thread!

[jtryka]

Wow! Great post, I have never read a show report and actually visualized being there before, but you accomplished it here!

[Wondercoin]

Tom: What an incredible experience it was! Allow me to fill in a few more details.

 

TomB was walking around with a single PCGS box of coins and what an incredible box of coins it was! All moster toned jewels - holder meant NOTHING WHEN IT CAME TO THESE COINS!! We met at the Dealer Table of David Schweitz (user name "MS68") - as some of you may know, Dave was mentioned by David Hall recently as having a "world class eye". I have experienced that firsthand, going "head to head" against him at auction in the past for various coins. David is also "the best there is" when it comes to SLQ's and when I was asked by my customer to pursue some great rarities in that series at FUN (I won the 1920(d) SLQ in PCGS-MS68FH at $132,000 and a few other super rarities at that sale including a POP 1/0 NGC SLQ coin), my first move was to bring David in to consult on the purchases. Enough about David though and back to this neat deal....

 

Tom asked if I wanted to see his monster toned collection of coins and, of course, I couldn't resist. Dave also asked to see the box of coins. Dave pulled out (3) coins:

 

1. 1936(p) Mercury Dime (PCGS-MS67FB) (I believe Tom mentioned the coin was purchased recently for under $100)

 

2. 1947(s) Wash Quarter in PCGS-MS67 - typically a couple hundred dollar coin in MS67 with some color.

 

3. 1951(s) Franklin Half Dollar (PCGS-MS65). YES - only MS65 without even an FBL designation!!

 

Dave picked out these (3) coins and asked Tom B. to name a price. These coins were breathtaking as were many others in his box. Tom politely stated the coins were not for sale and Dave sat back while I enjoyed a conversation with Tom concerning his coins. I put the (3) coins back in the box and finished looking at them all. There was some discussion concerning the pricing of color coins and Dave joked about the fact that those (3) coins which I had already put back in Tom's box would be off the charts in price. Tom joked that the (3) coins had already been put back in his box, so it would be tough to even discuss them again. Dave said he was writing down a number for the (3) coins and as long as he could pick 3 coins from the box, if he mixed them up that was his problem.

 

Tom was weakening a bit at the knees as Dave wrote down a figure for the (3) coins. Like Tom said, he has probably been through this before and was expecting an offer that he could easily and quickly reject. But, I also knew that Dave wanted these 3 coins and is known to bid outrageous prices at auctions for the right coins. THIS WAS GETTING INTERESTING.

 

Dave wrote down his figure and handed it to me. He asked me to name the price of the offer, but before I could I saw the number. I have pursued wonderfully toned Wash quarters myself for a few years and have paid record prices for some coins. I knew what I would have bid at auction for these 3 coins. But, before I mention that, let's review the coins again:

 

The Mercury sheets at around $250, while the quarter around $100 and the Franklin around $50. So, we are talking about $400 in coins WITHOUT THE WONDERFUL COLOR and fabulous "PQ" surfaces. What would I have paid? Honestly, at best, around $3k for the dime, $5k for the quarter and $2k for the Franklin. I love super color coins with PQ surfaces and would have paid up for that Wash quarter, as it did have a great chance to MS68 one day. But, my guess is Dave saw the Mercury for what it was (and I do not profess to know the Mercury Dime series as Dave does) - the most incredible 1936(p) Dime imaginable. And, this is where my figuring would have missed the boat. DAVE HAD WRITTEN DOWN ON THE PAPER THE SUM OF $15,000.00 for the 85 cents in change!!!!!!! I showed the paper to Tom, who also nearly fell off his chair. A minute later Tom remarked how incredible the offer was and accepted it. I was stunned at the offer because I thought my calucations were already in the stratosphere!! I remarked to Tom that the 85 cents in colorful change was being exchanged for a nice new 2003 Honda Accord!!! Tom was in a state of shock best I could tell.

 

The deal went down and the (2) of the coins were promply resubmitted for upgrade. The Mercury Dime now resides in a PCGS-MS68FB holder and, I am told, blows away one or both of the other 1936(p) Mercuries in that grade. It is now simply the finest slabbed 1936(p) Mercury Dime on the planet. I had grossly undervalued this former MS67FB coin which sheets at around $250 and I had figured at around $3,000 (I guess so did the fellow that sold it for under $100 raw in the firstplace). While the 1947(s) quarter remained in a PCGS-MS67 holder, I sincerely doubt it will not find a home in either an NGC-MS68* or PCGS-MS68 holder before too long. That coin is obviously still the key to the deal and was likely valued by David at around $6,000-$8,000 IN A PCGS-MS67 HOLDER!!

 

Both Tom and David were total winners on this deal and here is a perfect example of selling coins to a dealer for WAY MORE than any likely collector would ever consider paying for these 3 coins which sheet at $400 total for all 3 coins without color.

 

What a cool deal and I learned a bit about pricing "PQ" Mercury Dimes with monster color and quality as well !!

 

What an enjoyable afternoon! Great seeing you again Tom.

 

Wondercoin

[jeh46544]

I havn't read your post yet, TomB. I can't read. Wait, Yes I can! And I did read your post! Very nice!

[gmarguli]

OK Tom, time for some photos of these coins.

 

And while we're at it, did that box contain any early commems that you're tired of.

[Android]

Congrats Tom! Great story by both you and Mitch. Mitch, is there any way to get some pics of these coins? As both a Washington and Merc collector, I'm dying to see these coins!! Tom, do you have any pictures these?

 

I'm also curious as HOW such a price is formulated. Are there buyers in the waiting for such wonderful pieces? Or is it a true "gamble"?

 

Drooling like Pavlov's dog anticipating some pics...

 

Andy

[agfox-migration]

Wow, simply fantastic stories, thank you both for sharing. I'm with Greg, where's the photos?!

 

 

[nwcs]

Wow, I have really enjoyed reading the tale of the tones. Thank you both for sharing!

[Wondercoin]

Re: Formulating pricing on these types of coins:

 

To the very skilled graders out there, I believe it really boils down to a calculation of the value of the coin in the next highest grade, the % chance it will achieve the next highest grade and the premium for the color. Even at first blush one can see how difficult such a calucation is -

 

1. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO PRICE GUIDE FOR COINS SUCH AS PCGS AND NGC MS68 MERC DIMES, ROOSEVELT DIMES, JEFFERSON NICKELS, WASH QUARTERS, ETC. Indeed, very few people truly know what these coins are worth. This is a key component of pricing a "PQ" MS67 coin though (where

pricing is often available, although dubious at times IMHO).

 

2. % chance of upgrade - Seriously, perhaps 1/5 -1/10 of the folks on a bourse floor can really assess this properly. It is "splitting hairs".

 

3. Premium for color - What is a Picasso worth? Throw that into the mix as well.

 

Now, if even if you correctly figure out #1 and #3, if you screw up #2 you are possibly "buried" in a coin forever. If you can figure out #2 and #3 but understate #1, you won't win the coin anyway. If you are a world class grader, you are fine on #2 but most world class graders have not studied the Roosie dime market that carefully and might goof up on #1.

 

I was sitting at the FUN auction bidding on Wash quarters. There were (2) PCGS-MS67 1946(p) coins in back to back lots. One had some color and fetched around $8,000. The very next lot without the color fetched around $2,000. How does one truly even know what the starting point of an MS67 price is under these conditions? A mere search of Heritage's archives for example would yield you these (2) coins - so what price do you even put on an MS67 1946(p) quarter as your starting point to value a possible MS68?

 

Trial and error and a large bankroll seem like a good starting point! Wondercoin

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sunnywood]

<<< Trial and error and a large bankroll seem like a good starting point ! >>>

 

Mitch that is SO TRUE !!!!! I think that's the way any of us become really expert specialists in any series !!!

 

Sunnywood

 

[TomB]

I think Mitch described quite well what goes into formulating prices for this type of deal. I knew what I had and knew where I wanted to be in order to sell the coins and the dealer who bought them also knew what they were and what he was likely to get for them. His calculations and my calculations intersected in this deal, therefore, it was consumated. By the way, I think I left plenty of room for him to do very well on these coins.

[shirohniichan]

However, coins, like other things, exist in a continuum of preservation, excellence and eye appeal.

 

The vast majority of collectors don't seem to understand this simple fact. Great story, Tom.

[Android]

Thanks Mitch!

 

I can certainly understand the process you describe intellectually, It sounds like something that ISN'T easy to do, and requires vast amounts of experience in order to be succesful.

 

Andy

 

BTW, did anyone mention PICTURES?

[DavidSchweitz-migration]

I want to thank Tom for showing me that marvelous box of coins. I would have liked to have made an offer on the entire box but felt I had a better chance of acquiring something if I only tried to get a few pieces. Tom has one of the best eyes of any collector and has an impressive array of monster toned coins. I would love to put up pictures of the three coins I purchased but my scanner is broken. If Tom has images of these coins, I would welcome him to put them up for all to see.

David

[miko999]

many words?"...show us the pics...the pics...where are the pictures?

[ArtR]

TomB may still have the coins listed on his web page.

TomB's Page

 

[CarlWohlforth]

Thanks for the very interesting story!

 

Are the dime and quarter on Tom's home page the ones we are talking about? Nice!

[GP_]

Great story!!

 

I have to agree, TomB has an awesome eye for monters!

[ArtR]

Are the dime and quarter on Tom's home page the ones we are talking about? Nice!

Carl,They should be in his Gallery Section.

[DavidSchweitz-migration]

I just checked out TOMB's site and he has very good images of the 1947-S-25c- PCGS 67 and the 1936-10c-PCGS 67FB in his Gallery section. The image of the 51-S-50c-PCGS 65 does not bring out the true colors.The colors appear far more vibrant when viewed in person.

David

[ArtR]

Tom has one of the best eyes of any collector and has an impressive array of monster toned coins.

A statement that I fully agree with. I got a look at TomB's box a couple of FUN Shows ago. I believe I said "WOW" quite a few times.

[EVillageProwler]

Tom does have an excellent eye for coins. After all, he did like the coins I had with me!

 

(Or, he was just being very polite!)

 

EVP

 

[merysu]

I happend to show up as this occurred and Dave had pulled out his check book. I think Tom was a bit surprised by Dave's offer, my gut feeling was that Tom really had no intention of selling those beauts. Not to sound sycophantic(for those of you in Rio Linda--that means being a suck-up ), but Dave, Tom and Mitch all have great eyes; visiting Dave's table at a major show is always exciting and looking at Tom's or Mitch's website is neat. -mark-

[braddick]

More proof that stellar, killer GREAT coins are the way to go for collecting.

Better to own a box of twenty than 200 generics.

 

What a terrific story. Thanks for sharing it with us.