Has commercial grading made valuation more contentious?

[RWB]

Has the commercial grading of coins made the whole subject of "value" much more complicated and contentious than it once was?

[Mr.Mcknowitall]

Has the commercial grading of coins made the whole subject of "value" much more complicated and contentious than it once was?

 

In my opinion, absolutely.

[Nutmeg Coin]

It really starts with greed, and those for whom the end justifies the means, top to bottom.

[RWB]

So....is a 1964 dime in common uncirculated condition worth $1 or $30?

[BillJones]

So....is a 1964 dime in common uncirculated condition worth $1 or $30?

 

According to PCGS "Coin Facts" it's only worth more than $30 in MS-67. They have graded 75 of them, and they are supposed to be worth $120 apiece. If something in higher grade were show up, it would bring four figures easy, if it continued to be only one and "the finest known," but not to me.

[Coinbuf]

Yes, today's market grading has made valuations a nightmare.

[Walkerfan]

It's becoming much more complex to find the 'RIGHT' coin due to 'market acceptability'. I remember years ago, when a MS 64 or even a MS 63 was a pretty solid coin. Not so much these days, as we have to worry about over-dipping, post-mint damage, questionable color, gradeflation, etc., etc. just to name a few. Makes the hunt FAR more difficult and valuation more complicated and quite dangerous, as the $$$ amount climbs.

[BillJones]

It's becoming much more complex to find the 'RIGHT' coin due to 'market acceptability'. I remember years ago, when a MS 64 or even a MS 63 was a pretty solid coin. Not so much these days, as we have to worry about over-dipping, post-mint damage, questionable color, gradeflation, etc., etc. just to name a few. Makes the hunt FAR more difficult and valuation more complicated and quite dangerous, as the $$$ amount climbs.

 

This is one of the reasons why CAC has become so popular with some collectors. It's a shame because there are some coins that are perfectly okay that have gotten the CAC rejection (Thank goodness not marked as such, except on some dealers' inventory labels.) and many coins CAC has never seen, yet there are collectors who won't buy anything without a CAC sticker.

[asdfgh]

I guess it depends on if your are a dealer or collector. I almost gave up collecting coins because I was getting ripped of when I tried to sell a coin. I would buy the best coin I could find for a particular date and mint mark, only to be told when I went to sell it, it was a low grade coin only worth a third of what I paid for it. I knew better and it would take me many dealers before I could get even close to the money I had in it. Now I can walk up with a MS67 coin and the only argument is if it is a low grade 67 or not. I never have anyone say "oh thats an AU coin, MS60 at best". The fact is, grading has leveled the field for collectors and people who inherit coins.

[Conder101]

I remember years ago, when a MS 64 or even a MS 63 was a pretty solid coin.

Ah yes back when MS-65 was "INVESTMENT!" grade.

 

[BillJones]

I guess it depends on if your are a dealer or collector. I almost gave up collecting coins because I was getting ripped of when I tried to sell a coin. I would buy the best coin I could find for a particular date and mint mark, only to be told when I went to sell it, it was a low grade coin only worth a third of what I paid for it. I knew better and it would take me many dealers before I could get even close to the money I had in it. Now I can walk up with a MS67 coin and the only argument is if it is a low grade 67 or not. I never have anyone say "oh thats an AU coin, MS60 at best". The fact is, grading has leveled the field for collectors and people who inherit coins.

 

It is really aggravating when dealers do that "trash talk" to get the prices down. I have not had that pulled on me too many times, but it ticks me off when they do it. Most of the times when the dealer said the coin was not all that great it really wasn't all that great for the grade.

 

I found that when I was a dealer you could pay a fair price for a good coin and still make money. In fact you made more money because sellers would come back to me with other good coins. Some dealers just have to play the game, even when they know what they are saying is full of it.

 

[Walkerfan]

I guess it depends on if your are a dealer or collector. I almost gave up collecting coins because I was getting ripped of when I tried to sell a coin. I would buy the best coin I could find for a particular date and mint mark, only to be told when I went to sell it, it was a low grade coin only worth a third of what I paid for it. I knew better and it would take me many dealers before I could get even close to the money I had in it. Now I can walk up with a MS67 coin and the only argument is if it is a low grade 67 or not. I never have anyone say "oh thats an AU coin, MS60 at best". The fact is, grading has leveled the field for collectors and people who inherit coins.

 

It is really aggravating when dealers do that "trash talk" to get the prices down. I have not had that pulled on me too many times, but it ticks me off when they do it. Most of the times when the dealer said the coin was not all that great it really wasn't all that great for the grade.

 

I found that when I was a dealer you could pay a fair price for a good coin and still make money. In fact you made more money because sellers would come back to me with other good coins. Some dealers just have to play the game, even when they know what they are saying is full of it.

 

I had a well-known dealer do that to me at a big show with my 1932-S MS 64 Washington. He actually tried to tell me that the coin had rub and was an AU coin! Funny thing is that I had bought and sold from him, in the past, and was quite satisfied and had no problems.

 

It really made me mad, as it was PQ for the grade with NO RUB and he was obviously trying to pull a rip. I told him that he doesn't know how to grade, in front of some onlookers. I hope that I ticked him off as much as he did me.

 

I shopped it around and found an eager buyer at the same show for a fair price.....It is just a giant game and serves as a good lesson not to take a bad offer.

[WoodenJefferson]

Pretty much so with about 50% of the hard core collectors...if it's not in their brand of plastic, they might not even consider looking at the coin in the holder as they are brandwashed.

[coinman_23885]

I guess it depends on if your are a dealer or collector. I almost gave up collecting coins because I was getting ripped of when I tried to sell a coin. I would buy the best coin I could find for a particular date and mint mark, only to be told when I went to sell it, it was a low grade coin only worth a third of what I paid for it. I knew better and it would take me many dealers before I could get even close to the money I had in it. Now I can walk up with a MS67 coin and the only argument is if it is a low grade 67 or not. I never have anyone say "oh thats an AU coin, MS60 at best". The fact is, grading has leveled the field for collectors and people who inherit coins.

 

It is really aggravating when dealers do that "trash talk" to get the prices down. I have not had that pulled on me too many times, but it ticks me off when they do it. Most of the times when the dealer said the coin was not all that great it really wasn't all that great for the grade.

 

I found that when I was a dealer you could pay a fair price for a good coin and still make money. In fact you made more money because sellers would come back to me with other good coins. Some dealers just have to play the game, even when they know what they are saying is full of it.

 

I had a well-known dealer do that to me at a big show with my 1932-S MS 64 Washington. He actually tried to tell me that the coin had rub and was an AU coin! Funny thing is that I had bought and sold from him, in the past, and was quite satisfied and had no problems.

 

It really made me mad, as it was PQ for the grade with NO RUB and he was obviously trying to pull a rip. I told him that he doesn't know how to grade, in front of some onlookers. I hope that I ticked him off as much as he did me.

 

I shopped it around and found an eager buyer at the same show for a fair price.....It is just a giant game and serves as a good lesson not to take a bad offer.

 

You should have loudly (in front of customers) reminded him that you bought it from him as a 64.

[coinman_23885]

It's becoming much more complex to find the 'RIGHT' coin due to 'market acceptability'. I remember years ago, when a MS 64 or even a MS 63 was a pretty solid coin. Not so much these days, as we have to worry about over-dipping, post-mint damage, questionable color, gradeflation, etc., etc. just to name a few. Makes the hunt FAR more difficult and valuation more complicated and quite dangerous, as the $$$ amount climbs.

 

+1

[coinman_23885]

... and many coins CAC has never seen, yet there are collectors who won't buy anything without a CAC sticker.

 

That is very sad IMHO.

[Raisethis2]

Determining actual price has become a greater chore even on problem free coins. Get into market grading and let me have the aspirin.

[Nutmeg Coin]

I guess it depends on if your are a dealer or collector. I almost gave up collecting coins because I was getting ripped of when I tried to sell a coin. I would buy the best coin I could find for a particular date and mint mark, only to be told when I went to sell it, it was a low grade coin only worth a third of what I paid for it. I knew better and it would take me many dealers before I could get even close to the money I had in it. Now I can walk up with a MS67 coin and the only argument is if it is a low grade 67 or not. I never have anyone say "oh thats an AU coin, MS60 at best". The fact is, grading has leveled the field for collectors and people who inherit coins.

 

It is really aggravating when dealers do that "trash talk" to get the prices down. I have not had that pulled on me too many times, but it ticks me off when they do it. Most of the times when the dealer said the coin was not all that great it really wasn't all that great for the grade.

 

I found that when I was a dealer you could pay a fair price for a good coin and still make money. In fact you made more money because sellers would come back to me with other good coins. Some dealers just have to play the game, even when they know what they are saying is full of it.

 

I had a well-known dealer do that to me at a big show with my 1932-S MS 64 Washington. He actually tried to tell me that the coin had rub and was an AU coin! Funny thing is that I had bought and sold from him, in the past, and was quite satisfied and had no problems.

 

It really made me mad, as it was PQ for the grade with NO RUB and he was obviously trying to pull a rip. I told him that he doesn't know how to grade, in front of some onlookers. I hope that I ticked him off as much as he did me.

 

I shopped it around and found an eager buyer at the same show for a fair price.....It is just a giant game and serves as a good lesson not to take a bad offer.

 

That's where a CAC sticker would have helped, but I have witnessed this type of dishonesty for years and it is all too common in numismatics.

 

If the coin is being sold raw and worth many $100s of dollars the dealer cannot help but sing its praises; if the coin is certified the dealer will proffer that you would be hard-pressed to find a nicer example on the bourse floor at such a fair and bargain price. If you suggest the coin may be overpriced, then it is a super rare or under-graded rarity with the best unique toning. If you offer less he will say try to find such a unique specimen, or that he would buy 100 at your offer price if they were available. Between the magic of population figures, CAC stickers, limited availability, another extremely interested buyer who wants the coin but if you have cash it will be available to you before he gets back, it is hard to win.

 

I have thought of offering to have various mainly raw coin sellers who are always complaining about how expensive the grading services are, how arbitrary or biased they are toward the major submitters--I have thought of offering to have certain of their coins graded free, or throw some penalty into the offer if the coin(s) fails to grade properly, of course they wouldn't go for that.

[Walkerfan]

I guess it depends on if your are a dealer or collector. I almost gave up collecting coins because I was getting ripped of when I tried to sell a coin. I would buy the best coin I could find for a particular date and mint mark, only to be told when I went to sell it, it was a low grade coin only worth a third of what I paid for it. I knew better and it would take me many dealers before I could get even close to the money I had in it. Now I can walk up with a MS67 coin and the only argument is if it is a low grade 67 or not. I never have anyone say "oh thats an AU coin, MS60 at best". The fact is, grading has leveled the field for collectors and people who inherit coins.

 

It is really aggravating when dealers do that "trash talk" to get the prices down. I have not had that pulled on me too many times, but it ticks me off when they do it. Most of the times when the dealer said the coin was not all that great it really wasn't all that great for the grade.

 

I found that when I was a dealer you could pay a fair price for a good coin and still make money. In fact you made more money because sellers would come back to me with other good coins. Some dealers just have to play the game, even when they know what they are saying is full of it.

 

I had a well-known dealer do that to me at a big show with my 1932-S MS 64 Washington. He actually tried to tell me that the coin had rub and was an AU coin! Funny thing is that I had bought and sold from him, in the past, and was quite satisfied and had no problems.

 

It really made me mad, as it was PQ for the grade with NO RUB and he was obviously trying to pull a rip. I told him that he doesn't know how to grade, in front of some onlookers. I hope that I ticked him off as much as he did me.

 

I shopped it around and found an eager buyer at the same show for a fair price.....It is just a giant game and serves as a good lesson not to take a bad offer.

 

You should have loudly (in front of customers) reminded him that you bought it from him as a 64.

 

(thumbs u

[Walkerfan]

It's becoming much more complex to find the 'RIGHT' coin due to 'market acceptability'. I remember years ago, when a MS 64 or even a MS 63 was a pretty solid coin. Not so much these days, as we have to worry about over-dipping, post-mint damage, questionable color, gradeflation, etc., etc. just to name a few. Makes the hunt FAR more difficult and valuation more complicated and quite dangerous, as the $$$ amount climbs.

 

This is one of the reasons why CAC has become so popular with some collectors. It's a shame because there are some coins that are perfectly okay that have gotten the CAC rejection (Thank goodness not marked as such, except on some dealers' inventory labels.) and many coins CAC has never seen, yet there are collectors who won't buy anything without a CAC sticker.

 

Great--I guess that just means that there are still some nice coins out there for us, at decent price levels, that are not over-hyped by a little green bean.

[World Colonial]

Has the commercial grading of coins made the whole subject of "value" much more complicated and contentious than it once was?

 

A lot less for the world coins I collect versus those from the US which most here buy, but yes.

 

It is a lot easier to sell coins to someone other than a dealer now because of the internet but this still usually requires the coins to be (NGC or PCGS) graded to realize current value.

 

The primary thing I dislike about the widespread use of grading for the coins I collect is that it has really inflated the prices since I resumed collecting in 1998. Earlier in the last decade, I was probably primarily competing against non-US collectors who disproportionately only pay (much) less. Wider adoption of TPG grading has inflated their prices as it has with US coins with more "investment" buyers.

 

 

[RWB]

Ah....do you mean price inflation without a change in real value?

[Afterword]

Let me sell my coins before you guys lower the prices. It can wait for another ten or fifteen years - I hope!

 

 

[World Colonial]

Ah....do you mean price inflation without a change in real value?

 

For the coins I collect, mostly. I consider the risk of counterfeits minimal for most of the coins I buy. There are either more profitable coins to fake or I suspect many counterfeiters don't even know they exist.

 

I also know that the quality differences which are discussed here and on PCGS which are considered so important are disproportionately trivial if not entirely imaginary.

 

To give you an example of what I am talking about, I own a 1770 Bolivia NGC XF-40 4R. My cost with grading fees is $300. I bought it ungraded in March 2002 from a German dealer on eBay.

 

Right now, a dealer many or most here know has a PCGS AU-53 offered at $2650. I consider this coin marginally better than mine. Color is very similar (not "white" or visibly cleaned as most of these coins come). My coin has slightly more wear on the crown side. David Lang previewed my coin in October, 2005 at the LV coin show where he estimated it as an AU. This is what I actually believe it to be (50) since as far as I am concerned, the grading on this series (by both services) is all over the place.

 

I consider my coin underrated at my buy price in 2002, though maybe it was "market value" I have no clue since I never saw anything remotely comparable until recently. The AU-53 at $2650 hardly, but its still probably a $2000 coin in today's market and I suspect this is what this dealer will probably get for it.

 

The price variance on already graded coins has not changed quite as much but still far outpaced my financial capacity to buy them.

 

Shocking as it may be, I actually prefer to pay less for my coins since I don't buy them for "investment" and I have no plans to be a seller any time soon and in some cases, ever.

[leeg]

We have to go back to the beginning of the TPG's. Remember why they were formed?

[World Colonial]

We have to go back to the beginning of the TPG's. Remember why they were formed?

 

Yes, I am aware of it generically. I am not anti-TPG. I just consider the inflated prices a significant negative side effect.

 

Whether it is a net positive or negative, everyone can make up their own mind. I am aware of the issue of buying at one (higher) grade and selling at another (lower) one in the past. I believe this was mostly created by limited communication. Most collectors were stuck selling to a local dealer and it was either cumbersome to shop the coin around or not practical if you lived in an area with one or two.

 

Today, it is much harder to sell any ungraded coin of value at its market price in a TPG holder, but I still believe it is easier than in the past. The internet has substantially reduced the importance of dealers as a middleman.

 

Also, I see this mostly as a problem for US coins and mostly because so many of them are so expensive. If the prices were a lot lower as they were in the past, the risk would be much less. This is what existed for world coins when I resumed collecting in 1998. Collectors outside the US dislike TPG for the most part but US buyers prefer it and they are the ones who have (substantially) inflated the prices of the most popular and high end coins.

 

The TPG services were created for the US market and the buyer of US coins, not for anyone else. It just so happens this practice is extending to world and now ancient coins.

[BillJones]

For the coins I collect, mostly. I consider the risk of counterfeits minimal for most of the coins I buy. There are either more profitable coins to fake or I suspect many counterfeiters don't even know they exist.

 

It might be that way now, but I would not take that assumption to the bank. More and more "main stream" U.S. dealers are getting into foreign coins from what I see at the major shows. As the better foreign pieces find a market, the Chinese are sure to follow.

 

It might be harder for them to get it "right," but it's like assuming that you are in the clear of the serial number on the slab matches the coin inside when you use the TPG's certification verification service. The crooks are now using serial numbers that are tied to a real coin with their fake slabs and counterfeit coins. As collectors find ways to catch the crooks, the crooks find new ways to try to stay ahead of the collectors.

 

[Walkerfan]

For the coins I collect, mostly. I consider the risk of counterfeits minimal for most of the coins I buy. There are either more profitable coins to fake or I suspect many counterfeiters don't even know they exist.

 

It might be that way now, but I would not take that assumption to the bank. More and more "main stream" U.S. dealers are getting into foreign coins from what I see at the major shows. As the better foreign pieces find a market, the Chinese are sure to follow.

 

It might be harder for them to get it "right," but it's like assuming that you are in the clear of the serial number on the slab matches the coin inside when you use the TPG's certification verification service. The crooks are now using serial numbers that are tied to a real coin with their fake slabs and counterfeit coins. As collectors find ways to catch the crooks, the crooks find new ways to try to stay ahead of the collectors.

 

That's why I like NGC's database images for their newer slabs----very useful in determining a genuine coin and I've viewed them countless times. PCGS does not have them, unless they're in a Secure Plus holder or the like. They should follow NGC's lead.

[World Colonial]

For the coins I collect, mostly. I consider the risk of counterfeits minimal for most of the coins I buy. There are either more profitable coins to fake or I suspect many counterfeiters don't even know they exist.

 

It might be that way now, but I would not take that assumption to the bank. More and more "main stream" U.S. dealers are getting into foreign coins from what I see at the major shows. As the better foreign pieces find a market, the Chinese are sure to follow.

 

It might be harder for them to get it "right," but it's like assuming that you are in the clear of the serial number on the slab matches the coin inside when you use the TPG's certification verification service. The crooks are now using serial numbers that are tied to a real coin with their fake slabs and counterfeit coins. As collectors find ways to catch the crooks, the crooks find new ways to try to stay ahead of the collectors.

 

The primary reason I have this opinion is that I believe there a lot of other coins which are far more profitable to counterfeit, not because it is technically difficult to do it.. I don't how business savy counterfeiters are but if I were one, the ROI would be much better elsewhere.

 

First, none of the coins I buy are expensive by US standards even in the highest grades. The most expensive coin I own today is probably the 1755 Peru NGC MS-65 1/2R or 1754 Guatemala NGC XF-45 4R at $2000 to $3000.

 

Second, hardly any of the series I collect have coins in higher grades where it would make sense to counterfeit a slab and put a fake coin in it. There are few "gems".

 

Third, the supply for most of the coins I collect is so low that any prospective counterfeiter could only successfully pass one or at most a handfull of fakes before it would be noticed even by those who don't know how to spot it.

 

As an example, a few years ago, a South Africa 1894 "Mint State" half crown was listed by a Chinese seller ungraded on eBay. The combined count for this coin in all MS grades is 11 which is where it has been since at least 2010. A genuine example of this coin in "gem" is probably worth at least $10k (pop1 is a 64 today) but the likelihood of someone buying it I consider low from such a source, whether it is in a fake holder or not.

 

Of the coins I collect, only the pillar dollar is commonly faked to my knowledge. It is a very common type coin and widely collected which means that its feasible to fool hundreds or thousands of buyers just as it is with common date Morgan dollars or any number of US "key" dates. This potentially makes it very profitable, even if each counterfeit only sells for a few hundred USD.

[BillJones]

The primary reason I have this opinion is that I believe there a lot of other coins which are far more profitable to counterfeit, not because it is technically difficult to do it..

 

Bear in mind that the Chinese are making common date Morgan Dollars in "circulated condition" for the flea market trade. These things are only worth $30 or $40 or less, retail, if genuine, BUT the Chinese pieces are made of toned steel, not silver.

 

It would be fun to go to a flea market with a strong magnet, set it on top of the dealer's case and have all of the "coins" jump up on the glass. It would be sort of like the Pied Piper leading the rats out of town!