Has commercial grading made valuation more contentious?

[RWB]

Hmmmm...very strong rare earth magnets are fairly cheap now. Sounds like a fun Saturday project -- just don't go near anyone with a steel plate in their head or a pacemaker.

[World Colonial]

The primary reason I have this opinion is that I believe there a lot of other coins which are far more profitable to counterfeit, not because it is technically difficult to do it..

 

Bear in mind that the Chinese are making common date Morgan Dollars in "circulated condition" for the flea market trade. These things are only worth $30 or $40 or less, retail, if genuine, BUT the Chinese pieces are made of toned steel, not silver.

 

It would be fun to go to a flea market with a strong magnet, set it on top of the dealer's case and have all of the "coins" jump up on the glass. It would be sort of like the Pied Piper leading the rats out of town!

 

Most of the coins I collect even in circulated grades would still not make sense to counterfeit for the reasons I provided in my prior post.

 

I acknowledge counterfeits are a problem for world coin collectors but disproportionately for more widely collected coins or expensive ones such as those you collect.

 

I am hardly an expert in counterfeit detection but for the most part, I believe most fakes wouldn't pass the "smell test" as I would be suspicious either because the coin is almost impossible to find or I wouldn't expect the seller to be in a position to offer it.

 

I could certainly be fooled into buying a coin in isolation probably up to the $1000 range but most likely only if it is one I would expect the source to have access to.

[Houston Investor]

While I favor commercial grading over technical I believe one has to have a good technical knowlege of grading to really be competent in evaluating acquisition decisions. This is less of an issue with mods but with the advent of even mod stickering services (really a PQ 70?) what the furure is on this market is anybodys guess.

 

I prefer simple - today computing market value just input the slab number into the certificate verify provided by NGC or PCGS. Then it will tell you market value. Or just let their inventory manager do it for you. The ideal thing is have all your PCGS / NGC coins on the respective inventory managers alonge with cost and download into excel to see the entire portfolio performance.

 

However, if you start it on ebay at 99c auction in this market your will realize another amount wihch can usually be much less (at least that is what my extensive tracking list says). If your a fan of Crown Royal like I am you may consume a lot it when the red ink come in. I loaded up on a couple of bottles I bought duty free on my Alaska cruise in June.

 

I certainly am not saying these coins are worth less than what the TPG' Price guides say. Current Market Conditions really don't favor sellers right now. It can be brutal but my investment decisions are something I take responsibility for.

 

Many speculators have been burned and are selling and moving on to bond and stock markets. It reminds me of the people who paid $1000 for MS65 Generic Morgan Dollars and felt burned during the 1989-90 market crash.. This leaves hard core collectors and investors as the active players. If your a buyer it may be a good time to buy. IDK which way the bullion markets will go but am bulking up on gold and silver material sticking with plan - many blame the high exchange rate for the dollar as the culprit. There are some key numismatic coins I am chasing and will jump on them when found for if I do hesitate someone else won't.

 

Whether I am a buyer or not (or for that matter bid or offer) is subject to current market conditions. This is the reality of the market place sort of a constant like gravity. Cash flow bad, well I am not buying or offering much. Strong performance along with super sales, well my buying is strong.

 

Don't ignore the gravity of coin market conditions or have a defective chute, falls from a great height can be really bad. Worse make sure the plane is level when bailing out, you could get caught in the props.

 

We can debate about valuation all day but like a blood test, the proof is in the pudding when you start a coin at 99c and see what it realizes.