Anyone Watching the Heritage Auction?

[physics-fan3.14]

I'm watching the Heritage Auction live in Houston right now. I like watching and dreaming of all the things I could get.

 

And, I like having an idea on the state of the market. Anyone watching? What is standing out to you?

[World Colonial]

I watch the world coin auctions when there is something I am trying to buy. Never watch any US auctions.

[wheat'swheats]

I am and it is amazing how much some of the 40's and 50's lincolins have dropped the 1947 in 67 is down almost 2600, several of the others are down several hundred. The biggest surprise to me is how a 1926 s in 64 rb not CACed is down from about $2600 to $950 and $1300. That is the first I have seen under $2000 in about 3 years.

[RWB]

Why are you amazed? They are all common date coins in readily available condition. Neither past nor current "prices" are justified.

[wheat'swheats]

Your response shows to me a damned if you do and a damned if you don't situation. A few months ago I made a comment that I was amazed how high some of the 40' s and 50's lincolns had gone up at auction at which time I was told I was totally off base thinking that they should not be that high. I said that there were more of them out there than people were admitting , and I was told I was the one out of touch and not the buyers. Now I comment that I am surprised that all of a sudden they are rapidly losing value and once again my observation is not a proper take on the situation and things are as they should be. I understand what you are saying and for the most part agree but they are dropping all of a sudden for reasons I can't explain.

[RWB]

"Your response shows to me a damned if you do and a damned if you don't situation."

Nope. Not at all.

 

"I understand what you are saying and for the most part agree but they are dropping all of a sudden for reasons I can't explain."

 

The "reasons" are very simple: the "demand" was and is entirely artificial -- there is little underlying value beyond some carbon dust on a bit of paper. This is a fundamental fallacy embodied in the "register set competition" foolishness; and in the broader "slabbing" lunacy for utterly common coins. (As Miss Brahms so often said "Just common. Dead common.")

[AHFreak]

RWB - I have come to very much respect and appreciate your thoughts/opinions/insights/etc.... lets not forget your jokes, (at least the very few I am smart enough to "get") - I appreciate those too!

 

Wheat'sweats - I just want to point out that there are many many others who feel totally and completely different than RWB does about these "dead common" high grade modern coins.

 

 

[Walkerfan]

I love watching Heritage auctions!! I watch them often (when I can or am not working) Most of the prices in Walkers today looked about average. I see soooo many WLHs with 'dead' surfaces and no luster and that is disturbing. I was surprised to see a 1933-S MS 63 PCGS go for over 1700.

 

Here is an image from the Nov. 9th auction of a 1942-S PCGS MS 66 that sold for $4112.50 (which inc. juice). Someone must have thought that the very modest slight red/yellow rim toning was natural. It looks very slight to me and very likely dipped and re-toned---I don't like it at all----luster bands appear to be diminished to me. This coin in this grade usually sells for about $1100 or so. Strike ain't so hot, either, as I remain UNIMPRESSED. People think that a 'Secure' slab means that the coin has not been FOOLED with but that is simply NOT the case. Someone put too much faith in that slab IMHO.

 

 

[MarkFeld]

"Your response shows to me a damned if you do and a damned if you don't situation."

Nope. Not at all.

 

"I understand what you are saying and for the most part agree but they are dropping all of a sudden for reasons I can't explain."

 

The "reasons" are very simple: the "demand" was and is entirely artificial -- there is little underlying value beyond some carbon dust on a bit of paper. This is a fundamental fallacy embodied in the "register set competition" foolishness; and in the broader "slabbing" lunacy for utterly common coins. (As Miss Brahms so often said "Just common. Dead common.")

 

You haven't explained why, that which you deem the "artificial demand" supposedly dropped the way it did.

[MarkFeld]

I love watching Heritage auctions!! I watch them often (when I can or am not working) Most of the prices in Walkers today looked about average. I see soooo many WLHs with 'dead' surfaces and no luster and that is disturbing. I was surprised to see a 1933-S MS 63 PCGS go for over 1700.

 

Here is an image from the Nov. 9th auction of a 1942-S PCGS MS 66 that sold for $4112.50 (which inc. juice). Someone must have thought that the very modest slight red/yellow rim toning was natural. It looks very slight to me and very likely dipped and re-toned---I don't like it at all----luster bands appear to be diminished to me. This coin in this grade usually sells for about $1100 or so. Strike ain't so hot, either, as I remain UNIMPRESSED. People think that a 'Secure' slab means that the coin has not been FOOLED with but that is simply NOT the case. Someone put too much faith in that slab IMHO.

 

 

 

That coin doesn't look dipped or the least bit unnatural to me. And I find it to be highly attractive.

[jom]

I love watching Heritage auctions!! I watch them often (when I can or am not working) Most of the prices in Walkers today looked about average. I see soooo many WLHs with 'dead' surfaces and no luster and that is disturbing. I was surprised to see a 1933-S MS 63 PCGS go for over 1700.

 

Here is an image from the Nov. 9th auction of a 1942-S PCGS MS 66 that sold for $4112.50 (which inc. juice). Someone must have thought that the very modest slight red/yellow rim toning was natural. It looks very slight to me and very likely dipped and re-toned---I don't like it at all----luster bands appear to be diminished to me. This coin in this grade usually sells for about $1100 or so. Strike ain't so hot, either, as I remain UNIMPRESSED. People think that a 'Secure' slab means that the coin has not been FOOLED with but that is simply NOT the case. Someone put too much faith in that slab IMHO.

 

 

 

That coin doesn't look dipped or the least bit unnatural to me. And I find it to be highly attractive.

 

I think it does too but $4100 seems a bit over-the-top to me. Then again, maybe the photo is not showing some incredible luster...who knows? I do like the color though....

 

jom

[Hard Times]

I lot viewed in my areas on Wednesday, targeted one, bought an Indian cent on the bourse from Charmy. Saving up for FUN.......

 

Best HT

[Hard Times]

I love watching Heritage auctions!! I watch them often (when I can or am not working) Most of the prices in Walkers today looked about average. I see soooo many WLHs with 'dead' surfaces and no luster and that is disturbing. I was surprised to see a 1933-S MS 63 PCGS go for over 1700.

 

Here is an image from the Nov. 9th auction of a 1942-S PCGS MS 66 that sold for $4112.50 (which inc. juice). Someone must have thought that the very modest slight red/yellow rim toning was natural. It looks very slight to me and very likely dipped and re-toned---I don't like it at all----luster bands appear to be diminished to me. This coin in this grade usually sells for about $1100 or so. Strike ain't so hot, either, as I remain UNIMPRESSED. People think that a 'Secure' slab means that the coin has not been FOOLED with but that is simply NOT the case. Someone put too much faith in that slab IMHO.

 

 

 

That coin doesn't look dipped or the least bit unnatural to me. And I find it to be highly attractive.

 

Mark, er, ah, err, ahh, errrr, ahhhh, you ah, well, er, ah, you work for Heritage, isn't it kind of a conflict of interest to comment on coins like this in a Heritage auction publicly on boards like this? Would you honestly dis a coin in public like this in a Heritage auction? I am guessing not........

 

Best, HT

[MarkFeld]

I love watching Heritage auctions!! I watch them often (when I can or am not working) Most of the prices in Walkers today looked about average. I see soooo many WLHs with 'dead' surfaces and no luster and that is disturbing. I was surprised to see a 1933-S MS 63 PCGS go for over 1700.

 

Here is an image from the Nov. 9th auction of a 1942-S PCGS MS 66 that sold for $4112.50 (which inc. juice). Someone must have thought that the very modest slight red/yellow rim toning was natural. It looks very slight to me and very likely dipped and re-toned---I don't like it at all----luster bands appear to be diminished to me. This coin in this grade usually sells for about $1100 or so. Strike ain't so hot, either, as I remain UNIMPRESSED. People think that a 'Secure' slab means that the coin has not been FOOLED with but that is simply NOT the case. Someone put too much faith in that slab IMHO.

 

 

 

That coin doesn't look dipped or the least bit unnatural to me. And I find it to be highly attractive.

 

Mark, er, ah, err, ahh, errrr, ahhhh, you ah, well, er, ah, you work for Heritage, isn't it kind of a conflict of interest to comment on coins like this in a Heritage auction publicly on boards like this? Would you honestly dis a coin in public like this in a Heritage auction? I am guessing not........

 

Best, HT

 

The coin had already sold, so I see no conflict. And if I didn't like the coin, I would feel free to say so.

 

A number of posters here (as well as numerous other collectors) have asked me for my sight-seen opinions of auction coins. My thought is that they trust me to be unbiased and forthright in my assessments and feedback. But if I'm mistaken, I would like to hear about it.

[World Colonial]

I am and it is amazing how much some of the 40's and 50's lincolins have dropped the 1947 in 67 is down almost 2600, several of the others are down several hundred. The biggest surprise to me is how a 1926 s in 64 rb not CACed is down from about $2600 to $950 and $1300. That is the first I have seen under $2000 in about 3 years.

 

I agree with RWB's sentiments but let you try to give you a specific explanation.

 

The decrease of $2600 you cite for the 1947 appears to be from many years ago, as in 2009 or earlier. On Heritage, I see some slightly weaker prices more recently but nothing out of the ordinary.

 

There is a sale of about $6300 back in 2005 versus $3500 more recently. I suspect that this is a combination of:

 

1) A likely increase in the census count during this period, regardless of whether any of the coins are actually duplicates or not.

 

2) Maybe the overall weaker market since 2008 or 2009 as a result of the economy; and

 

3) Most importantly, the thin nature of the market for "conditional rarities" generally and who the individual buyers happen to be.

 

In any event, I see that the census count for a 67 1947 RD is 20 today for PCGS and over 500 in 66. 20 specimens is a relatively high number for a "conditional rarity" even though this is either the #1 or #2 series in US coinage and overall. An MS-66 sells for about $100. I have seen far higher multiples elsewhere but I also consider it absurd given the actually trivial difference in quality.

 

 

[jom]

Mark, er, ah, err, ahh, errrr, ahhhh, you ah, well, er, ah, you work for Heritage, isn't it kind of a conflict of interest to comment on coins like this in a Heritage auction publicly on boards like this? Would you honestly dis a coin in public like this in a Heritage auction? I am guessing not........

 

A number of posters here (as well as numerous other collectors) have asked me for my sight-seen opinions of auction coins. My thought is that they trust me to be unbiased and forthright in my assessments and feedback. But if I'm mistaken, I would like to hear about it.

 

I'd be one of the people that has Mark look at Heritage lots for possible bidding and he is often VERY conservative in his assessments. I'd guess that on the average he'd reject 8 of 10 coins I have him look at for me.

 

So...no...I don't find Mark in the least bit biased

 

jom