Is there any correlation between a coin that is "rare", and one "rarely seen"?

[James_OldeTowne]

From time to time, there are threads asking what other people's "pet peeves" are, and for me, it's when a coin is called "rare" when in fact it is easily obtainable. "Rare 1909-S VDB" comes to mind... But I personally think there might be coins that are not technically rare, but are rarely seen for sale. Your thoughts?

[Deerefan8420]

I think the word "Rare" is over-used by many people, including both collectors and dealers. If you browse through the Morgan dollar listings on eBay, about 90% of the listings for the common dates/MMs include the word "Rare" somewhere in the listing titles or descriptions. And it's not just the Morgan series. It spans across the entire series of US coinage. I understand that there are true rarities, whether it be conditional rarities or rarities by way of low mintage numbers and very few survivors, in all US coinage series. But the word "Rare", to me, has been used as a sales gimmick aimed at the less-informed collectors.

[Hard Times]

1854-S gold dollar comes to mind - for gold dollars not super rare but 5 years of searching I have not found the right one at the right time that I wanted. In fact, out of the few that come up each year, the one Bill Jones snagged was the only one so far that I would have grabbed. Okay there is a few hundred, we are not talking about the thousands of 1877 indian cents, 1909-S vdb's or the common 1916-D mercury, but still not considered rare, just hard to get.

 

Best, HT

[Ryan S.]

Rarity and Value get confused. Sure a coin will be expensive if there is a lot of demand for it, but that doesn't make it rare. I do a little bit of Ancient coin collecting and it amazes me how examples with less than 50 known can be obtained for under $50.......if you can find them! Never the less, the world has become a lot smaller with all this technology in our lives. What used to be "rare" & "hard-to-find" is now as common as dirt because every person in every recess of the world can chat about it on the interweb. :-)

[wdrob]

I thought so until recently when I was told that although the mint records only show 1,000 coins struck for a particular coin that it is not rare and that there are possibly 10,000 of them.

 

However, in my limited experience I have not seen them come up for air very often so it is somewhat confusing. It would seem as though a coin that seldom meets with the auction block could easily be considered rare.

 

 

 

 

[A.Phillips]

In my opinion, a word, rare or rarity, may be use when the low mintage coins at higher grades. For example, 1883-S Morgan at MS65, MS66, & MS67. I don't considering 1889-CC Morgan as a rare coin anymore because it seems to be easy to find at LOW grades, but hard to find it at higher grades. So basically, I think it's better way to say "key date" rather than "rare." It's just my 2 cents.

 

 

The problem with grading services (with rarity situation) is.... As I mentioned about 1883-S Morgan at MS65, MS66, & MS67. According to NGC Census Detail:

 

MS65: 14 graded

MS66: 2 graded

MS67: 1 graded

 

When someone bought 1883-S MS65, and want to break the holder out and hoping to submit it to NGC for higher grade or whatever. The number of population on NGC census details is still the same even if someone took the coins out of holder. It's hard to know how many coins exactly out there. I don't know if 1883-S MS64 is pretty common or rare? The same coin may been graded repeatedly several times. Who knows.

 

Alan

[wdrob]

The term for that would be a Condition Rarity.

 

 

 

 

[jom]

But I personally think there might be coins that are not technically rare, but are rarely seen for sale. Your thoughts?

 

How would you know the difference? In fact, could you not argue that those definitions are the same thing?

 

jom

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm not an expert and the linguistics may also befuddle me, but to me:

 

RARE COIN = the coin is rare in ANY condition

 

CONDITION RARITY = the coin is rare in middle Mint State Grades (MS64-66)

 

For a gold coin, Condition Rarity to me is where the price goes parabolic and escapes sub-100% premiums to bullion. For many of the commons it is MS-66. For some of the condition rarer coins like 1911-S or 1914-D it is MS-65 or even sometimes MS-63 for some.

 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

But I personally think there might be coins that are not technically rare, but are rarely seen for sale. Your thoughts?

How would you know the difference? In fact, could you not argue that those definitions are the same thing? hmjom

 

I think for some coins where there is such limited quantity that they NEVER TRADE, the coin is Rare/Condition Rare such that the few people who own the coin simply don't sell them that often OR ever.

 

1927-D Saint Gaudens comes to my mind, since it's one of the few areas I know fairly well. Basically, anybody who bought one bought it because they WANT that coin and/or want a complete set or near-complete set. They're also likely very wealthy and don't need to re-sell it even if it now sells for 2x or 3x or 4x what they paid for it. Making $100,000 selling your one-and-only 1927-D doesn't matter if you make a few million a year or have a net worth of $100 million.

[James_OldeTowne]

But I personally think there might be coins that are not technically rare, but are rarely seen for sale. Your thoughts?

 

How would you know the difference? In fact, could you not argue that those definitions are the same thing?

To give an actual example, is the 1794 dollar "rare"? or just "rarely seen"? I never see one up for sale, yet there are at least 130 in existence, considerably more than some Dahlonega and Charlotte gold issues that show up in auctions or at sales far more frequently.

[cpm9ball]

One of the reasons I enjoy collecting medals is that you rare-ly find them with mintages greater than 500-1000. It's a challenge finding 19th century specimens in MS condition because many people don't think of them in the same way they do coins.

 

Chris

[RWB]

A 1964 Kennedy half is rarely seen in major auctions....

 

Back in the early 19th century, a coin was called "rare" when the writer had not been able to locate one. Later, usage evolved toward quantity produced. Now it is a hybrid term with little independent meaning.

[Conder101]

To give an actual example, is the 1794 dollar "rare"? or just "rarely seen"? I never see one up for sale, yet there are at least 130 in existence, considerably more than some Dahlonega and Charlotte gold issues that show up in auctions or at sales far more frequently.

It is scarce, and it does come up for sale with at least moderate frequency.

[jom]

But I personally think there might be coins that are not technically rare, but are rarely seen for sale. Your thoughts?

 

How would you know the difference? In fact, could you not argue that those definitions are the same thing?

To give an actual example, is the 1794 dollar "rare"? or just "rarely seen"? I never see one up for sale, yet there are at least 130 in existence, considerably more than some Dahlonega and Charlotte gold issues that show up in auctions or at sales far more frequently.

 

OK, now it's coming down to the semantics of what one would call rare. I'd think 130 is pretty rare. Then again, others may not. Maybe it comes down to which coin has "devoted" followers that don't want to sell their precious examples? I don't know.

 

So, to me, rarely seen at auction or just technically rare (however you want to define it) comes down to the same thing. Another words if there aren't a lot of them around you aren't going to see them available very much over a period of time (using a time average or some such). So in your example how does one know there are 130 available when you almost never see them in auction?

 

jom

[#]

I like what the ANA has to say about rarity when preparing a competative exhibit which they consider to be worth 10 points out of 100. "Rarity is judged by the number of like pieces believed to exist, not the value of individual pieces". The example they cite is the 1879 flowing hair Stella $4 gold piece. It is a very high priced coin but they do not consider it rare. One or two are readily available at most regional or national conventions or in the monthly auctions. Many medals are one of a kind items and though inexpensive command a high point score for rarity. These were their words not mine. Two personal notes; I realize that these two examples are not coins but they are what the ANA used for examples. And two, I know I talk way too much about the year 1879 with my mint and proof set but that's what I've been working on for two years. Also I glad the $4 stellar is not a coin; I hate to have to buy one.

David

[RWB]

Good observation!

[mumu]

You are ignoring the demand side of "supply and demand". The total rarity, is not only a function of supply(how many exist) but also demand(being in strong hands and not coming up for sale often is actually a matter of demand.)

[Walkerfan]

Yes---a rare coin is one that is very expensive but makes many auction appearances such as a 16-D Mercury or a 1916 SLQ.

 

A rarely seen coin is one (presumably expensive), in which, there are few examples that don't cross the block on a regular basis such as a high quality chain cent.

 

[RWB]

...such as VG 1912 Lincoln cents.....must be really, really rare....or well done?

[James_OldeTowne]

...such as VG 1912 Lincoln cents.....must be really, really rare....or well done?

Ha, I can tell you from sorting wheat cents that the 1912 Lincoln is neither rare, nor rarely seen !

[cpm9ball]

...such as VG 1912 Lincoln cents.....must be really, really rare....or well done?

 

You'll have to ask Charmy. She's the one who is always posting photos of steaks, and she knows a thing or two about pennies, too!

 

Chris

[Walkerfan]

...such as VG 1912 Lincoln cents.....must be really, really rare....or well done?

 

You'll have to ask Charmy. She's the one who is always posting photos of steaks, and she knows a thing or two about pennies, too!

 

Chris

 

[yonico]

I'm not an expert and the linguistics may also befuddle me, but to me:

 

RARE COIN = the coin is rare in ANY condition

 

CONDITION RARITY = the coin is rare in middle Mint State Grades (MS64-66)

 

For a gold coin, Condition Rarity to me is where the price goes parabolic and escapes sub-100% premiums to bullion. For many of the commons it is MS-66. For some of the condition rarer coins like 1911-S or 1914-D it is MS-65 or even sometimes MS-63 for some.

 

 

What do you base your definition of "condition rarity" on? Especially the MS64-66 part of it..?

 

I would think that for a coin that is very rarely found in grades VF and up, an AU example could be considered "conditional rarity", could it not?

[GoldFinger1969]

What do you base your definition of "condition rarity" on? Especially the MS64-66 part of it..? I would think that for a coin that is very rarely found in grades VF and up, an AU example could be considered "conditional rarity", could it not?

 

Absolutely, for most of the Saint Gaudens I referenced, the parabolic rises take place in the MS ranges. For Liberty's, many times it's in the AU grades.

[yonico]

What do you base your definition of "condition rarity" on? Especially the MS64-66 part of it..? I would think that for a coin that is very rarely found in grades VF and up, an AU example could be considered "conditional rarity", could it not?

 

Absolutely, for most of the Saint Gaudens I referenced, the parabolic rises take place in the MS ranges. For Liberty's, many times it's in the AU grades.

 

Oh ok then . Didn't know you were referring to $20 gold pieces specifically. Cool

[wdrob]

I am now certain that there is indeed a correlation.

 

I have never seen one of the following and I am certain that it is 'Rare'.

 

 

That would have been a nice design for the Indian Eagle although I think it is fine just the way it is.

 

Ooops! I think I just introduced 'Unique' into the 'Rare' topic.

 

 

[Hard Times]

Yes---a rare coin is one that is very expensive but makes many auction appearances such as a 16-D Mercury or a 1916 SLQ.

 

A rarely seen coin is one (presumably expensive), in which, there are few examples that don't cross the block on a regular basis such as a high quality chain cent.

 

I think the 1916-D is not a rare coin - there are 10 up for auction right now at Heritage, and always dozens for sale online at any time, 119 have been sold at Heritage since 1/1/13. There are about 8000 graded by PCGS and NGC, even taking into account regrades there are still 1000s and 1000s of these. It is in demand, which is why it goes for such crazy prices, but common. Rarely seen coins are not always in demand and thus not always expensive. My example above, the 1854-S gold dollar, is rarely seen and hard to find one to buy. Heritage has auctioned off less than 100 of these in over 20 years of archived lots, less than 5 per year in all grades and no grades. 300-400 certified by PCGS and NGC. Only 10 of these have been CACed, which many consider to be PQ. Expensive? You can have one for less than $1000 in AU55. Not super rare, but rarely seen, but not overly expensive compared to the common 1916-D dime simply because not many wish to have one.

 

Best, HT

[mumu]

I think the question is easily answered when you also consider World coins.

[okbustchaser]

There is a big difference between "rare" and "rarely seen for sale".

 

"Rare" has nothing to do with demand...a coin either exists in certain amounts (I like the Sheldon scale which calls 75 or fewer known examples rare.) or it doesn't. For example, the 1817/4 bust half is rare. The 1916-D dime is not--regardless of how many people might want one.

 

"Rarely seen for sale" on the other hand can have much to do with the demand side. For example, one very seldom sees a circulated 2003 cent for sale--not because it's rare, but because there is very little market for such a coin.