Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

[World Colonial]

Because people have their individual preferences, many things in theory are possible but that hardly means they are likely. It is much easier to talk in generalities than specifics.

 

Personally, even though I vastly prefer world coins over those from the US, I think it is unrealistic to believe that more than a small percentage of these coins are going to remotely replicate the price trends (much less pricing levels) in the US. Sure, I will agree that given the absolute price differences that the opportunities are generically better, but most of these coins are going absolutely nowhere.

 

Also, while I agree with some of the points you have made (I have also read some of your posts on PCGS), I do not believe that people generally prefer or have any specific preference for coins simply because they used them in circulation. Even the prices and price trends of US coins better support this claim than the opposite.. There are other factors that are a lot more important to most collectors. The primary reason why there are more US collectors of moderns now (and probably elsewhere) is because their budgets keep them from collecting more expensive coins. The same is going to be true of practically any other country. It is only for specialists that this is not true and there are never going to be that many of them.

 

In the US, what you describe is mainly possible primarily because US collectors focus on what are actually completely trivial differences in quality and practice specialization that does not exist elsewhere. This has enabled a miniscule fraction of US moderns (but also others) to achive high or very high prices but this has little impact on most others. And outside the US, these practices do not exist because collectors could not care less about them.

 

It is much easier to make these claims generically so let me provide a specific example. Let's take Mexican coins. Given that there are and are going to be a lot of Americans of Mexican descent in the US, it is not unreasonable to conclude that this collector segment is going to increase a lot.

 

Next, it is also reasonable to conclude that as Mexican-Americans, they will or at least are more likely to adopt US practices.

 

So does this mean that they are going to prefer Mexican moderns to the extent that they will remotely replicate the pricing of US moderns?

 

My answer is no. I collect the pillar coinage and I am somewhat familiar with the pre-United States of Mexico series (prior to 1914 or thereabouts) including Carlos & Joanna, cobs, pillars, and Mexican Republic..

 

If you take a coin like the Cap & Ray 4R which was minted at numerous mints from 1825-1870, even as a generic type coin, it is not common and in high grades, it is really scarce. (I own a single coin in NGC MS-61.) There simply isn't enough supply even for existing collectors, much less an avalanche of new ones.

 

So what does this have to do with moderns? Well, I do not see any reason that however many collectors decide to take up collecting Mexican moderns that they are going to pay anywhere near (much less more) for a disproportionate number of them simply because they used them as money or because they are available. In isolation yes, but otherwise no. The evidence available now indicates that Mexican collectors are always going to prefer this coin over any modern, but they just will not be able to buy them. The same reasoning applies to other Mexican coins.

 

To claim otherwise is the equivalent of claiming that SA collectors are going to pay more for RSA than ZAR and Union or any other series or market where the coins are also not available in any quantity..

 

Even in other countries where the coins are more available, the odds do not favor this outcome except in isolation. The primary reasons for these are in my opinion a) Collectors in these countries are unlikely to adopt US practices which ar enecessary to replicate US pricing except selectively. b) Many countries have limited or essentially no history of collecting.

 

From what I can see, the US has a unique combination of charateristics that make existing prices possible and most of these characteristics either do not exist at all elsewhere or to the a much lesser degree. These include:

 

1. A large population with above average income and net worth;

2 A long term numismatic tradition;

3. A vast variety of options in temrs of denomination and design;

4. A demonstrated cultural tendency to actually pay prices which ar emuch higher than elsewhere, even when considering the same level of scarcity and numismatic appeal;

5. An established numismatic infrastucture

6. Specialization practices such as "conditional rarity" collecting, die varieties, "monster" toning, special designation strikes and errros.

 

To the extent that other markets have the same charateristics, the pricing should resemble that in the US. To the extent they do not, the likelihood is lower or much lower. My prediction is that most will not and to the extent that it does happen, much of it will come from the US anyway.

 

 

[cladking]

... I do not believe that people generally prefer or have any specific preference for coins simply because they used them in circulation.

 

I really wasn't trying to make any distinction between modern and older coins. That nostalgia is a major component of demand does apply primarily to moderns though. People collect the classics because they are... ...well... ...classic, and this is sufficient reason while their beauty, historical importance, and precious metals can simply be considered icing on the cake for many people.

 

People always saved current coinage until the precious metals were removed because they percieved that current coinage would become classic in the fullness of time. It always worked this way in the long run so they were right. However, when coins started being made of base metal they were made in far larger quantities for myriad reasons: They had to replace all the precious metal coins, coins were cheaper to produce, and economies were growing rapidly after the war. People saw the poor quality, base metal, and huge mintages of the new coins and percieved them to be worthless and to maintain this worthlessness for all time so they didn't save them. It's only with the advent of a new middle class all over the world with a FEW collectors desiring these newer coins that their scarcity is becoming noticed. These markets might never become a significant part of the entire market because the numbers of coins are smaller than the older markets and even the rarest moderns might never become especially valuable. But the percentage gains in the moderns are vastly outstripping the gains in the older coins. It really wasn't my intention to engage in a discussion about moderns except to the degree they affect the overall coin market. This is the most vibrant section of the market except to the few who can afford the five and six figure coins and the highest grades. It is the bottom of the market that usually leads the entire market at the turns and it's been moderns specifically that led the turn in '95 and, I predict, they will lead the turn in 2016 as well.

 

Of course the high dollar and high grade coins will probably do just fine over the next few years even before moderns signal a general uptrend.

 

From what I can see, the US has a unique combination of charateristics that make existing prices possible and most of these characteristics either do not exist at all elsewhere or to the a much lesser degree. These include:

 

1. A large population with above average income and net worth;

2 A long term numismatic tradition;

3. A vast variety of options in temrs of denomination and design;

4. A demonstrated cultural tendency to actually pay prices which ar emuch higher than elsewhere, even when considering the same level of scarcity and numismatic appeal;

5. An established numismatic infrastucture

6. Specialization practices such as "conditional rarity" collecting, die varieties, "monster" toning, special designation strikes and errros.

 

To the extent that other markets have the same charateristics, the pricing should resemble that in the US. To the extent they do not, the likelihood is lower or much lower. My prediction is that most will not and to the extent that it does happen, much of it will come from the US anyway.

 

 

You have some very interesting observations on Mexican coinage.Thanks.

 

It's true that there is no history of collecting in other countries and, I believe, this is working strongly in favor of the moderns. Some new collectors abroad don't even know that modern coins are just base metal junk so they are collecting them like they are coins. They are finding a lot of these coins are nearly nonexistent so they are imparting huge price moves to it. Many coins I couldn't find in the '70's for 25c are now going for $1000. This really is the way coin collecting always was before it became a mass market in the 1930's. Now it's becoming a new mass market with a much more global character and a new set of coins that are scarce. With the huge influx of collectors born of the states quarter craze and the bullion buyers as well as the exploding middle class it's likely that the entire coin market (read classics) really is on the cusp of an explosion except that this will take a couple years yet in my opinion. In the interim we'll see some areas (like world coins)(including moderns) maintain their ongoing explosion.

[pianoman]

Fascinating thread with lots of good well thought out theories.

 

I also collect some world coins as well as US ones.

 

My collection in the silver and gold coin area is virtually all certified from the main TPGs and almost all pre modern era. My coppers and clads are mostly raw from ~1858 to present.

 

The way I view my entire collection from an investment growth is at current CD rates. (wish i knew how to use those d..m smiley emotions here). Just another form of asset diversification.

 

I view it more for hobby enjoyment What do they say of this hobby a sport for kings?

 

I'm just a serf looking to become a peasant er knight in this hobby.

[James_OldeTowne]

What do they say of this hobby a sport for kings?

 

I'm just a serf looking to become a peasant er knight in this hobby.

I like that!

 

Along those lines, I am kind of like a private first-class who would like to get up to corporal some day.

 

[cladking]

What do they say of this hobby a sport for kings?

 

I'm just a serf looking to become a peasant er knight in this hobby.

I like that!

 

Along those lines, I am kind of like a private first-class who would like to get up to corporal some day.

 

 

...And I really am merely a "pretender to the throne".

 

But at least I'm actually clad.

[World Colonial]

The topic covered in our post exchange, I am aware that a very small number of these coins have done and will do well. And I was not trying to single out just world moderns though I was making somewhat of a distinction between them and the coins most people collect right now.

 

What I am telling everyone here is part theory and observation and part first hand experience.

 

For the first, I cannot prove that what I have described in my prior posts is right for the simple reason that other collectors are going to pay whatever they want however little I think it makes sense. But what I am saying appears to be generically true; not always but usually.

 

Most collectors on this board are not used to buying coins that are really hard to find while I am. Disproportionately, most of the coins I collect are either difficult or very difficult to actually buy. It is one of the primary reasons I collect as many series as I do because if I did not, I would not have much or anything to buy most of the time.

 

What I just described for Mexico, it is not unusual at all. I think it is very common. If you look outside the countries with an extended tradition of collecting, there simply isn't very much to buy. By these countries, I am referring to the US, UK and some British Commonwealth, probably most of western Europe and Japan since 1870. It varies by country but I would say that these are usually the easiest coins to find for the 20th century and for Europe, even back to the late 18th many coins are not scarce at all even in high grades.

 

My theory on the low supply is that I do not believe that most collectors anywhere are in the habit of pursuing coins that they can seldom or practically ever buy. That is one reason that however much I like the series I collect, I do not believe that many (much less most) of them are going to be worth "big money". It doesn't make any sense.

 

Partly, this has to do with how people collect as well. So in my example of the Mexico Cap & Ray 4R, if a decent number collect this coin as part of a type set, then it will almost certainly be worth a lot more money than it is today. To my knowledge, there is little such collecting outside the US; only by date and also by mint occassionally if it applies. For this coin, no one can complete a date and mint or DAM (with assayer) set in "high grade" (much less in "gem"). I have never heard of a 'gem" at all and some or many of these coins do not even exist in any "better" grade either. Type collecting would probably increase the demand for this coin by ten fold if not more and the same applies to many others.

 

To go back to my prior post, think of how different US collecting would be if a disproportionate number of series were as scarce as the 1813-1834 US $5 gold. Yes, I know that these coins are also very expensive but the point I am trying to make is that few could collect this set anyway because the coins aren't available. In the US, they collect somethign else. Elesewhere, my theory is that they either pay less for all coins or do not collect at all.

 

It is likely to be mostly with "celebrity" coins where what I just described matters the least. So for example, I can see many collectors paying "big money" for the 1732 Mexico 4R but they are not going to do so for the 1745 (assuming there is even any reason to prefer this coin over another date in the series) because there is nothing distinctive about it.

 

On the second consideration, I know from experience that these coins are scarce and rare hard to find cheap if undiscovered, but it is even more difficult to find enough of them where the economics is going to matter. In your examples, I suspect that maybe someone could find one or a handful of these coins but almost never more. Or if they do, they will be the only one or one of the few and the odds against that are overwhelming. I know a SA expat who bought a hoard of 20,000 19th century SA tokens back in the late 1970's. Don't know any specifics but I do know that he alone owned a disproportionate amout of the supply and I expect he has made a "killing".

 

I was able to buy a decent number of SA coins but only because a disproportionate number of these coins are actually scarce while in practically every other instance, the overwhelming probability is that at most a few will be.

[World Colonial]

 

I recall two coins you have used in your prior examples, one was a 1954 India and I believe the other was from 1950's West Germany. Since I do not collect either and only collect SA from a comporable period, I cannot speak specifically to them.

 

What I can tell you though is that when prices were really low for both SA Union and ZAR, the supply was almost non-existent. Partly, it was because I had no SA source but since prices have increased, the census populations have increased a lot though in many instances, the absolute counts are still low and definltely low for better grade (MS-60+)..The distinction though between my example and the coins you have in mind is that there is almost certainly less "price discovery".

 

SA has a preference for TPG (NGC and PCGS) that does not exist outside the US except maybe for Canada. I also cannot prove it, but I suspect that if the coins you are describing are in a TPG holder (and it definitely sounds like some, many or even a disproportionate number of them could be), that a disproportionate amount of the demand is not coming from local collectors but from someone in the US. In SA most of the demand for graded coins is local and they also now have their own local TPG (SANGS), though I am dubious of its longer term economic viability. The only others outside the US I know are in Canada and the UK.

 

What I am describing can be confirmed by the census counts. The 1931 Union circulation strike florin has a population of zero while the 1923 Union penny is somewhat over 500, the 1898 ZAR penny is now close to 2000 and the RSA 2008 Mandela 90th BD 5R over 133,000. I use these coins as examples only but in absolute terms, the census counts are typically low, though I still believe these coins are frequently more available than those in SA apparently believe.

 

Disproportionately, the census counts for practically every single non-US coin are in the single or maybe low double digits. In the lopsided majority, it is not because the coins are "rare" but because non-US collectors do not like their coins in plastic.

 

CoinGuide SA also offers a pricing service which I suspect is available nowhere outside the US. This matters because if someone happens to own one of the coins you have in mind, the most realistic way for them to know it is valuable is from a price guide and I do not think I need to tell anyone here that these are not that accurate.

 

Personally, I believe that most non-US coins have a disproportionate percentage of the actual supply "undiscovered" The cheaper the coin and the less efficient the pricing distribution, the lower the available supply, no matter how many or how few of the coin exists.

 

In the majority of instances you could probably cite, I doubt that these coins are actually scarcer or at least that much scarcer than many SA Union. Taking the 1941H Sarawk cent which is known to be scarce, I disagree with the estimate of 50 Heritage included in a prior auction. The combined census currently lists 22, with most in MS. The coin is not cheap but unless there is a specific explanation, I suspect that the actual number is some multiple of this estimate. The scarcity and price alone do not really explain why such a disporportinate percentage of the supposedly existing specimens are in the census today while it is so low for most other non-US coins.

 

 

[cladking]

 

I don't agree with your reasoning about price discovery on collectibles. It's certainly true that only supply and demand determines price and that a collectible that's too rare to be widely collected is hurt by the lack of demand. Things like ZAR coinage in high grade, rare aluminum, or early 19th century silver Mexican issues aren't ever going to be part of a mass market. But 1804 dollars aren't valuable because there are thousands of dollar collectors but because there's enough collector demand to prevent the least expensive specimen from dropping. If they sold at a lower price new demand would arise. Many of the collectors who don't own an 1804 dollar will bid at auction and lose so they define the lowest it can sell. There's simply no reason that a rare ZAR piece can't go much higher in price even without a wide collector base. Certainly some of the gold could become desirable as type coins for collectors worldwide. Imagine what even the most common silver Uncs would sell for with higher demand.

 

There is an exploding demand base for collectibles and especially coins. Today the world middle class is only half a billion people but that could double every couple decades this century. The number of existing collectible coins is not going to increase and demand could go far higher even for coins that don't exist in sufficient quantities for mass markets.

 

What I can tell you though is that when prices were really low for both SA Union and ZAR, the supply was almost non-existent. Partly, it was because I had no SA source but since prices have increased, the census populations have increased a lot though in many instances, the absolute counts are still low and definltely low for better grade (MS-60+)..The distinction though between my example and the coins you have in mind is that there is almost certainly less "price discovery".

 

Nobody knows how many of most moderns exist. My estimates have proven to be wildly inaccurate in some cases. Coins I believed were relatively common have gone through the roof and some I believe are quite rare have languished despite similar coins increasing. I have a good feel for US coins but not world coins. Essentially, I mostly only know how tough world coins are to find in the US. But these prices have nothing to do with slabbing, high grades, or speculation. There's lots of speculating going on in many coins, just not in moderns. Nobody would put down good money for collectibles that are probably common if you find them. Nobody is going to pay tomorrow's prices for coins that might prove fairly common in the future. It's not wealthy foreign interests driving up C/ N and base metal coinage; it's collectors (and they have a very long way to go).

 

 

I believe we are going to see demand to continue to ratchet higher for all coins. US lower value coins have a couple more years of stagnation and possibly even further losses but the very wealthy will keep pressure on expensive coins while the emerging middle class in the rest of the world will keep pressure on all their own coins. There are some special cases with US coins that might do poorly for a long time for demographic reasons but overall the entire US and world markets are, I believe, healthy enough and will only improve.

 

 

[World Colonial]

I'm not clear what you do not understand by my reference to price discovery so let me explain.

 

World coins are not an "efficient market" for the most part. A lot of people do not know what most of them are actually worth unless they are a dealer or are trying to buy them. I have a general idea what the coins I collect are worth and can use a source like Heritage for some others, but many of them trade so infrequently that what the coin is "worth" can vary widely. For SA, I apparently know and knew more that even the dealers I bought from, or else they would have done exactly what I did.

 

Even with a Union coin like a 1931 proof shilling which sells occasionally, apparently most do not know. A few months ago, an NGC PR-65 sold on BoB (SA eBay equivalent) for about $10,000, Last week, DNW sold an NGC PR-66 for $3200, an absurd price difference and versus a LOWER graded coin. (I did not see either in person but that was not the reason either. There was nothing wrong or that different between the two.) I agree with you that there is some speculation and in this instance, the second coin was not sold in SA (which matters sometimes) but probably the main reason is that the bidders just had an inflated opinion of the lower graded specimen. I know that seems impossible but this sort of thing is not that unusual with these coins..

 

The fact is that with many world coins, few people really know what they are worth at any given point in time. Also, not everyone is "savy"or experienced enough as a collector to use the same judgment like the collectors that post here and on PCGS. So they will default at least initially to a price guide like Krause or for SA, Hern. Krause essentially lists the same prices as it did in 1998. It is completely worthless.

 

Going by the mintage and prices in Krause, it's easy to see how many people would never know that a particular coin is scarce. Let me give you a few examples from my series.

 

Coins that are "old" like the pillars, most are going to assume that the coin is worth something or a lot of money. Less experienced collectors or non-collectors probably overestimate its value but no high quality coin is going to sell "cheap".

 

A coin like the 1931 Union florin with a mintage of 383, everyone is going to expect this coin to be worth at least the $1250 catalog price Most US collectors probably think the coin is actually common in high grade because they expect the survival rate to be high. As a US coin, most would still exist and the likely grade would probably be an AU. In actuality, it is probably an R-6 at minimum and possibly an R-7. I have seen exactly ONE in 14 years and the best Union collection in the world does not have it.

 

The 1925 Union florin has a mintage of 50,000 but a list price in "UNC" of $2200. So though the mintage is not low, the catalog price sends a signal that the coin is not common and no one is going to sell this coin "cheap" either. It is actually scarce in any grade and very rare in high grade.

 

The 1932 Union penny and 1944 Union shilling are another story altogether. The 1932 has a mintage of several hundred thousand and the shilling about 50,000. Neither are rare in very low grades but both are quite scarce in decent grade and very scarce in high grades. In 2008, I bought a 1944 when there were zero in the census for $50 and sold it in 2010 for $2500. I bought a 1932 penny as an "XF" for $20 and sold it a month later for $1250 as an NGC MS-63. The other (of the two) in the census has a bid right now of $2750. No one would ever guess by the mintage or the catalog price that these coins are as scarce as they actually are.

 

What I have told collectors in SA is that it is highly likely people own these coins but have no idea what they are worth and I believe the same is going to be true of most coins though I agree not all of them. For SA, I believe that the additional supply is mostly in the UK and other Commonwealth countries plus the United States, however much it may be. For other coins, who knows. It will depend upon the circumstances but in the age of international travel, I think this assumption should be the expectation for any "recent" coin especially. There may be only a few additional coins or there may be many. But as a potential buyer, I would not assume that most of the supply has been identified unless I had a specific reason to do so.

 

So while I understand the point you are making about collectors not overpaying, I think you are assuming too much and giving most too much credit. I have told SA collectors that they have overestimated the likely or actual scarcity of these coins over and over, even though by most standards, the coins are not common or are relatively scarce most of the time. They do not listen now and they overlooked the two coins I just mentioned and many others that I bought for a pittance right under their noses.

 

For this series, I am biding my time and will be looking at some point to "load up". Some of the prices are quite reasonable now but I think they will get better first.

[World Colonial]

On a coin like the 1804 dollar, I agree with you entirely. The problem that I see is when a disproportionate percentage of the coins are "rare" or not widely available however someone wants to define the term. I guess that if enough people with enough money want to buy them anyway, it can happen. I do not see that happening except in isolation.

 

In SA, the supply of ZAR is larger than Union and I can see it accommodating what you wrote a lot more. For Union, not really even though I think the coins are somewhat more common than SA collectors do.

 

In Mexico, well I think the supply of pre-1914 coins in better grades and sometimes even average circulated grades is quite low..By my count, there are about 40 series to 1915 or maybe somewhat more if counted differently. I estimate that maybe a dozen have any decent supply of better coins (those after 1870) and only the pillar and portrait 8R in better circulated grades for the others.

 

Think of it this way. TDN and Legend bought the 1794 dollar for $10MM. If anyone tried to spend that much money at one time in any other market, I do not believe there is nearly enough to buy. That investment would have to be spread out over quite a long period of time, several years at least. Even much smaller amounts would be "too much" in most instances without the self-defeating result that the buyer would disproportionately bid up the prices of the coins they bought.

[cladking]

I'm not clear what you do not understand by my reference to price discovery so let me explain.

 

World coins are not an "efficient market" for the most part. A lot of people do not know what most of them are actually worth unless they are a dealer or are trying to buy them. I have a general idea what the coins I collect are worth and can use a source like Heritage for some others, but many of them trade so infrequently that what the coin is "worth" can vary widely. For SA, I apparently know and knew more that even the dealers I bought from, or else they would have done exactly what I did.

 

I agree that most world coins are not traded in an efficient market. But, most of the widely collected pre-WW II coins will trade between 25% and 400% of what a knowledgeable collectors would pay (98% of the time?). This isn't really true with moderns. In many cases there are no knowledgeable collectors because the coins don't trade or even exist and are not sought by anyone. There is no market at all. What is a nice attractive Fijian 1992 50c worth? How about an Indonesian "bird of paradise" 1971 50r? Is anyone seeking or finding these coins? These aren't "inefficient markets" but coins with no interest, no demand, and unknown supply.

 

What's causing the exploding prices in the older coins is the growing demand generated by a growing middle class all over the world. What's causing the much more explosive increases in moderns is that there has been no market and there often is no supply when the demand appears. A modern can go from three for a dollar to $1000 almost overnight. They often back off a little since the higher price will turn up a few coins but it's this process more than anything causing higher prices in moderns. It's not much demand causing it, just some demand. It's not speculation just a few collectors who want to own an example largely for nostalgic reasons. I believe this process is hardly begun and it will be decades until there is a solid market, an efficient market, and speculation becomes really possible.

 

This is and is likely to remain a small part of the overall market for a long time. But over time it will generate more and more new blood to the overall market and become a factor. In the meantime it is still marking some of the turns in the market also.

 

South African decimals are not going to eclipse the republic or ZAR coins in terms of market size and there might not even be a market in the decimals for decades (most are still "common").

[therealanaconda-migration]

How is the art market doing? That might be an indicator of how things may soon go for coins.

[e1cnr]

How is the art market doing? That might be an indicator of how things may soon go for coins.

 

I think the stamp market is a better indicator

(very top condition and a few rarities doing very well - everything else not)

[World Colonial]

I see your point. My guess is that of the few people who buy these coins, I would expect that in the majority of instances they are completely guessing what the coins are actually worth.

 

I find many of the prices and the actions of collectors in South Africa irrational, but when they overpay, it is their own fault. To a great extent, the information is available.but they just choose to ignore it.

 

For these coins, how many of the prices are even public and do collectors even know what others are paying? Are the catalogues remotely accurate? I do not consider Krause really accurate for anything but if SA is representative, the answer is likely no because the Hern catalogue is almost as bad, but just in the other direction. (The prices are too high.)

[World Colonial]

How is the art market doing? That might be an indicator of how things may soon go for coins.

 

I think the stamp market is a better indicator

(very top condition and a few rarities doing very well - everything else not)

 

Except for coins like the 1804 dollar or at least those that are actually rare as opposed to the majority which have an imaginary, artificial or invented definition of rarity, I do not see any similarity between coins and the art market at all. There are many forms of art but the one most people have in mind is drawings and paintings and at least until recently anyway, these are or at least usually are unique.

 

Going back to the original premise of this thread, there are a few assumptions which I think are necessary for this kind of scenario to remotely happen.

 

The first is the presumption that people will not have "any" other options to place their money. I do not think anyone can actually demonstrate any realistic scenario (and I do mean any) where that is remotely likely to happen.

 

A far better option than throwing your life savings into a bunch of trinkets (which is exactly what collectible coins actually are) would be to send it out of the country, wherever you happen to live and convert your wealth into more traditional and liquid forms of "investment". That is likely to be the primary option the "rich" take because its what they almost always do.

 

The second assumption is that people will continue to collect and maintain their interest regardless of whether they are priced out of practically everything worth buying. I cannot prove this is not true because it has never happened, but I think it is logically false because it appears to be contrary to how people actually act.

 

Sure, in theory over time wealthier people could push up the prices of a disproportionate number of coins up substantially. This would provide some time for adjustment and make it more realistic. But if it does happen, it would result in a full circle where coins collecting will once again (mostly) become the "hobby of kings".

 

In a short time frame, I do not think so. Not where it is going to last. The South African example I have used here is pretty much an illustration of that outcome in my opinion. Prices exploded from 1998 when I resumed collecting to about 18th months ago. Since then, they have fallen substantially.

 

What I think has happened is that a disproportionate number of collectors or, more likely, "investors" have entered the field either mostly or even only because prices were rising. They are disproportionately not "real" collectors at all. It is similar to what I believe happened before for selective US series after the metals boom and the introduction of TPG.

 

The distinction is that in South Africa, because there is so much less variety available, it impacted what most people in that country collect. And since it did, it probably priced out a substantial if not majority of existing collectors out of the better material. Or, maybe some or many of the "old timers" who comprised most of the collectors refused to pay the higher prices because they were used to paying so much less.

 

What appears to have happened now is that since the trend is temporarily over and the new entrants have been left holding the bag, fewer are buying because there was never that much real interest in collecting to start. If the scenario outlined in the OP ever happened, this is exactly what I would expect to happen basically everywhere.

 

Lastly, since I expect most people to become poorer or much poorer for the foreseeable future, I think the prospects for most coins are not that good either. Since I presume that most here do not share this view, its one reason they will have a different outlook.

[CoinZip]

Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

 

 

Can you define "on the cusp?"

 

 

week, month, year, decade.......Eventually the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever will happen, the record will be broke.

 

 

 

 

 

[$ilverHawk]

Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

 

 

Can you define "on the cusp?"

 

 

week, month, year, decade.......Eventually the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever will happen, the record will be broke.

 

 

 

 

 

An interesting aside. In the common vernacular, "on the cusp" defines a rather immediate occurrence. Therefore decade is out of consideration. My understanding of the OP s post is that he believes the strongest bull market in rare US coins will evolve within the next year. I may be wrong in my interpretation. Perhaps the OP will clarify his time line.

 

Carl

[therealanaconda-migration]

My reference to "on the cusp" in the original post could be interpreted to mean within the next year or less.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the coin market - especially Saints, Morgan and Peace Dollars in MS 62-65 - start to edge up over the next few months and then really start to take off within the next year.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me to not see the market for these coins take off; a lot has to do with marketing and education as well as what happens in the banking sector.

 

One good website aimed at promoting the idea that graded generic gold, Morgan and Peace dollars are a good bet might bring in a few big buyers which would promote what I suspect might happen on its own.

 

 

[cladking]

My reference to "on the cusp" in the original post could be interpreted to mean within the next year or less.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the coin market - especially Saints, Morgan and Peace Dollars in MS 62-65 - start to edge up over the next few months and then really start to take off within the next year.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me to not see the market for these coins take off; a lot has to do with marketing and education as well as what happens in the banking sector.

 

One good website aimed at promoting the idea that graded generic gold, Morgan and Peace dollars are a good bet might bring in a few big buyers which would promote what I suspect might happen on its own.

 

 

An upturn might require nothing but a positive upturn in the economy and/ or increasing numbers of jobs. As long as many people are worried about their jobs, their next paycheck, or their ability to find work I doubt there can be real turnaround in any of the mass markets. There's already a turn in the economy so I agree we could be "on the cusp".

[Nutmeg Coin]

Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

 

 

Can you define "on the cusp?"

 

 

week, month, year, decade.......Eventually the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever will happen, the record will be broke.

 

 

 

 

 

An interesting aside. In the common vernacular, "on the cusp" defines a rather immediate occurrence. Therefore decade is out of consideration. My understanding of the OP s post is that he believes the strongest bull market in rare US coins will evolve within the next year. I may be wrong in my interpretation. Perhaps the OP will clarify his time line.

 

Carl

 

Not going to happen. If the sharpest minds in numismatics have trouble predicting more than very modest returns, no way can the lesser lights succeed in doing so. The only people making significant money in this business are the insiders.

http://boards.collectors-society.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=6568274#Post6568274

[World Colonial]

An upturn might require nothing but a positive upturn in the economy and/ or increasing numbers of jobs. As long as many people are worried about their jobs, their next paycheck, or their ability to find work I doubt there can be real turnaround in any of the mass markets. There's already a turn in the economy so I agree we could be "on the cusp".

 

I do not see any real turn in the economy and have not for the last four years. What I see is a partial reflation of the asset and credit bubble and a plugging of the economic dyke through massive government deficit spending. It isn't a real recovery at all.

 

All of the supposed "growth" in the economy since late 2008 has been entirely accounted for by the increase in the federal deficit. All aided by cheap and unsustainable FRB monetary policy. Subtract the difference between the deficit prior to 2008 and what it has been for the last 4+ years and not only is there no growth, there is economic contraction. (And by the way, this is both a Bush and an Obama policy to counter any claims of "partisanship".) This supposed growth is actually a colossal waste of economic resources and a weakening of the government's future credit position. The price for this recklessness is going to be paid later, big time.

 

The fact is that the economy has been in a state of stagnation since about 2000. Even a disproportionate amount of the growth from 2000 to 2008 was the result of the real estate bubble and Bush administration federal spending plus easy monetary policy from the Greenspan FRB. That is why it was also unsustainable and completely artificial..

 

The combination of these two fake expansions is why the typical person is no better or in many instances, worse off than they were in 2000.

 

Now the more affluent, they are definitely better off than in both 2000 and 2008. So yes, they are in a position to spend more on coins, if they choose to do so.

[World Colonial]

My reference to "on the cusp" in the original post could be interpreted to mean within the next year or less.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the coin market - especially Saints, Morgan and Peace Dollars in MS 62-65 - start to edge up over the next few months and then really start to take off within the next year.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me to not see the market for these coins take off; a lot has to do with marketing and education as well as what happens in the banking sector.

 

One good website aimed at promoting the idea that graded generic gold, Morgan and Peace dollars are a good bet might bring in a few big buyers which would promote what I suspect might happen on its own.

 

 

 

The series you listed here, a return of the boom in silver and gold could and probably would drive these series and it could happen. I would still expect it would not make any difference for most other coins.

[CoinZip]

My reference to "on the cusp" in the original post could be interpreted to mean within the next year or less.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see the coin market - especially Saints, Morgan and Peace Dollars in MS 62-65 - start to edge up over the next few months and then really start to take off within the next year.

 

It also wouldn't surprise me to not see the market for these coins take off; a lot has to do with marketing and education as well as what happens in the banking sector.

 

One good website aimed at promoting the idea that graded generic gold, Morgan and Peace dollars are a good bet might bring in a few big buyers which would promote what I suspect might happen on its own.

 

 

Thank you for clarifying "on the cusp."

 

When you mention "One good website" you lead me to believe you are contemplating the idea......

 

[cladking]

I do not see any real turn in the economy and have not for the last four years. What I see is a partial reflation of the asset and credit bubble and a plugging of the economic dyke through massive government deficit spending. It isn't a real recovery at all.

 

All of the supposed "growth" in the economy since late 2008 has been entirely accounted for by the increase in the federal deficit. All aided by cheap and unsustainable FRB monetary policy. Subtract the difference between the deficit prior to 2008 and what it has been for the last 4+ years and not only is there no growth, there is economic contraction.

 

At the risk of getting into politics, I'm no fan of the way the economy is being run or manipulated. But there is tremendous waste in the system and this can be massaged so as to create the appearance of new wealth at any time. It seems the economy is being driven in this direction. There are risks and it's not certain that those running the economy are aware of those risks. There is a sense among modern economists that the economy can be completely contolled with no danger. I doubt this is true but do believe the macroeconomy has turned a corner in the short term. More money in more peoples' hands could have an immediate effect, though, I believe it will take a couple years to work off inventory before most US coins recover. There are some huge negative (demographic) forces that will slow the rate at which inventory is reduced.

[World Colonial]

My comments were not intended to be political though they may have appeared that way.

 

I'm also not in favor of what is happening, but the only point I was trying to make is that for anyone who believes that the economy is getting better, the answer is yes and no. Yes, in the sense that it appears more "normal" since financial conditions have improved (somewhat) and production and employment are also somewhat better than late 2008. No, in the sense that it is based upon more debt accumulation, longer term currency debasement and using resources in a less than optimally economically efficient manner which will ultimately make both the country as a whole and most individuals poorer or a lot poorer.

 

I do agree though that temporarily, the increased economic activity this sham generates enables more people to spend more money on many things, including coins.

[michael]

Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

 

yes

 

in

 

4 to 7 years

[World Colonial]

Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

 

yes

 

in

 

4 to 7 years

 

Based upon what?

 

Do you expect existing collectors to be willing and able to pay substantially more? Do you expect a substantial number of new collectors who have substantial assets to buy them? Do you expect a resumption of the bull market in gold and silver prices?

 

Not trying to pick on you because I think more than a few agree with you both here and who are not posting now. But the last reason is the only one that makes any sense given that most people are worse off than they were before 2008. Many here probably think the second reason I listed is also likely because they agree (at least somewhat) with the premise of the OP.

 

I will say the same thing I just told the South African collectors I know. It never ceases to amaze me how collectors seem to perpetually overestimate the merits and desirability of the coins they collect to others. And to anticipate a likely response, however much I underestimate (in this instance) US coins, those who collect them overestimate them even more.

 

I highlighted the word "ever" because this word apparently somehow implies that a disproportionate percentage of US coins are "cheap", affordable or reasonably priced at this time. I do not see how any impartial observer can possibly come to that conclusion in evaluating either the price structure or comparing current to historical prices. In isolation, maybe but otherwise not really.

 

The fact of the matter is that a disproportionate number of US coins are not cheap but either exorbitantly or absurdly expensive. In this thread, I have provided a part of my opinion on why they are so expensive but it is still more logical to conclude that some "common sense reasonable" limits exist than few or even none at all.

 

Another consideration is that with the most expensive US coins, I do not believe it is unreasonable to conclude that new "deep pocket" potential buyers are going to evaluate them versus other non-coin options.

 

If US coins worth over $1MM today explode in price, then some or even many are likely going to be worth more than an art object such as Russian Faberge Imperial Easter Eggs. Even as an exclusive coin collector, I do not see any sense in believing that at all.

 

[Kurtdog]

Re: Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

 

The market has been bull ever since we've been market grading.

[therealanaconda-migration]

New bill requires gold and silver registration

 

If it doesn't apply to generic Saints and common date Morgans and Peace dollars, maybe we are on the cusp of a bull market, at least in generic Saints and common date Morgans and Peace dollars.

 

http://www.wnd.com/wnd_video/new-bill-requires-gold-and-silver-registration/