Are we on the cusp of the biggest bull market in rare US coins ever?

[therealanaconda-migration]

I wouldn't be surprised if we are at the beginning of what may eventually be the longest bull run in numismatics and semi-numismatics (saints, Morgan and peace dollars, etc.) we have ever seen. Banking has never been more fragile (i.e. Cyprus) which puts our whole society at risk; couple that with our nation's history of gold bullion confiscation and you have a scenario that could guide people into truly rare coins (and other collectibles) like we have never seen.

 

What else is there besides rare and semi-rare US coins that 1) isn't likely to be confiscated (to force people into a fiat currency or new fiat currency) 2) has a well-structured trading marketplace 3) whose price isn't heavily correlated to industrial demand (like silver which isn't likely to be confiscated but whose price is heavily contingent on industrial demand) and which can be very privately owned?

 

(The only thing that comes to mind is "guns".)

[Tradedollarnut]

If society goes to heck, so do coin prices. The best thing for coins long term is an overall feeling of wealth in the world.

[therealanaconda-migration]

There will always be some form of currency. It is what will buy things. It will probably continue to be the dollar.

 

Comparing what it takes to something as compared to what it takes to buy something else is how I would come to determine whether or not a bull market in something has occurred.

 

My OP is an argument based on an analysis based on relationships.

 

While we're at it, I've posted a link to a good article on the fragility of the the current banking system. Yes, I know they have an agenda to pursue but they make their argument with facts.

 

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/why-is-the-world-economy-doomed-the-global-financial-pyramid-scheme-by-the-numbers

 

 

 

 

[therealanaconda-migration]

Historically every financial collapse has been followed but a re-building, so it's not like I'm saying a financial collapse means a permanent financial collapse.

 

I'm saying that we may be on the cusp of a long bull market in coins because as the collapse unfolds, the demand will rise dramatically and for a long time, from people who see it's high value (as a way to come through the collapse) as compared to other options.

 

Let's face it, we're not going to have a recovery anytime soon.

 

 

"There Will Be No Economic Recovery. Prepare Yourself Accordingly."

[coinsarefun]

Has anyone looked at the World Coin market lately?

 

The Russian coins gained momentum the last few years, now they

are going through the roof. All medium and higher graded coins are priced sometimes

3-4 times the average bull market prices.

 

I brought up this exact topic a few days ago and some very interesting facts were

brought to light.

 

 

 

 

 

[therealanaconda-migration]

By the way, rare coin prices do rise for the long term when overall wealth increases but they also rise in the short and medium term for other reason. Once certified grading was seen as solving the grading problem, rare coin prices rocketed from 1987 through the spring of 1989 (if memory serves me correctly).

 

I have no vested interest in this argument; I essentially own no rare coins and am not currently in the rare coin biz.

[therealanaconda-migration]

Coins are fun:

 

I'm not surprised to see world coin prices rising. Foreigners are generally more well educated as to world events and the flight to safer assets began long ago as indicated by the run up in gold prices.

 

High quality coins from China have rocketed in price but that is I think that may be primarily what TDN argues; an overall increase in wealth.

[coinsarefun]

I'm going to quote a member from my site

 

The collectors and investors in China have grown in great numbers, and these

collectors and investors are buying up all the high end and mid grade Polish and

Russian coins, tokens and other highly collectable items from those two countries.

Polish and Russian coins have seen gains that are unheard of within the past three

years. Just look at how hard it is to find high end Talers, it is as if the world market

has dried up.

 

 

Talking to one well known dealer, he has stated that his sales have jumped within the

last two years, and his top buyers are from China. I am not talking small amounts of

money here. The dealer states he has sold to one collector from China over

$300,00o in high end Talers and 17th century gold pieces in just two months times.

 

 

This IMO can lead to huge temporary gains, followed possibility by a huge

decline. It used to be Russia leading the race for elusive coins....now it has

been China in control for the last few years. Will it all collapse? I don't think anyone can answer that. What is happening now?.......definitely a bull market is here for high graded rarities for US, Russian and Polish gold, silver and copper coins.

 

 

 

[RWB]

So many false assumptions.....

[therealanaconda-migration]

So, Chinese demand has increased prices for European coins too....interesting. I would have thought they would be focused on Chinese coins but then again the market for European coins is probably much better.

 

I don't think the fundamentals indicate any collapse coming soon as a result of Chinese dumping even if they were to have a down turn but i suppose it could happen.

[therealanaconda-migration]

RWB; I am interested in hearing what false assumptions you are talking about and why they are false; I'm always interested in learning but I can't learn from just assertions like "So many false assumptions.....".

[coinsarefun]

So many false assumptions.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

Do tell

 

 

 

 

[RWB]

therealanaconda:

There's nothing that can be done in this space or forum to help with faulty logic, distorted historical perceptions and absence of basic economic understanding. I should not have commented....

 

[coinsarefun]

Ahhh, at least it wasn't something I said.........

 

 

 

[therealanaconda-migration]

therealanaconda:

There's nothing that can be done in this space or forum to help with faulty logic, distorted historical perceptions and absence of basic economic understanding. I should not have commented....

 

We deal in pixels, not paper. Posts and threads can be as long as needed.

 

I suspect that you are articulate enough to defend your assertions; I also do understand if you don't have the time or inclination to defend your assertions.

 

(You're probably just smarter than I am but are too busy to explain how I am wrong and you are right. i guess we'll just have to remain un-blessed by your insight.)

[RWB]

Ahhh...."So many false assumptions..... "

[Kurtdog]

What else is there besides rare and semi-rare US coins that 1) isn't likely to be confiscated (to force people into a fiat currency or new fiat currency) 2) has a well-structured trading marketplace 3) whose price isn't heavily correlated to industrial demand (like silver which isn't likely to be confiscated but whose price is heavily contingent on industrial demand) and which can be very privately owned?

You're mixing up markets a little bit here. Precious metals is a different market than numismatics. On precious metals, there's also luxury demand, as industrial demand gets those economies on their feet. The demand for precious metals is comprised of both of those components.

[therealanaconda-migration]

What else is there besides rare and semi-rare US coins that 1) isn't likely to be confiscated (to force people into a fiat currency or new fiat currency) 2) has a well-structured trading marketplace 3) whose price isn't heavily correlated to industrial demand (like silver which isn't likely to be confiscated but whose price is heavily contingent on industrial demand) and which can be very privately owned?

You're mixing up markets a little bit here. Precious metals is a different market than numismatics. On precious metals, there's also luxury demand, as industrial demand gets those economies on their feet. The demand for precious metals is comprised of both of those components.

 

What is it I'm mixing up, or in other words, what have I said that you disagree with? Of course precious metals are a different market than numismatics; that's one of my points.

[mumu]

There's a difference between "coin collectors have money" and "guys with money are collecting coins". Which one is driving the market right now and what happens to either as far as coins if theres an overall economic collapse?

[therealanaconda-migration]

(Removed: wisdom triumphed.)

[therealanaconda-migration]

There's a difference between "coin collectors have money" and "guys with money are collecting coins". Which one is driving the market right now and what happens to either as far as coins if theres an overall economic collapse?

 

Good question; I don't know. The fact of the matter is is that the dollar amount of coins that traditional coin collectors buy every year pales in comparison to the amount of money that could be spent by investors who typically buy stocks, bonds and commodities (who might start buying coins).

 

(By the way, the statement immediatly before your post wasn't directed at you.)

[mumu]

There's a difference between "coin collectors have money" and "guys with money are collecting coins". Which one is driving the market right now and what happens to either as far as coins if theres an overall economic collapse?

 

Good question; I don't know. The fact of the matter is is that the dollar amount of coins that traditional coin collectors buy every year pales in comparison to the amount of money that could be spent by investors who typically buy stocks, bonds and commodities who could start buying coins.

 

(By the way, the statement immediatly before your post wasn't directed at you.)

 

I figured that out by the time stamp 4 seconds apart. I think I am in the 3 year old crowd.

[therealanaconda-migration]

No, you're not; you have a reputation with me of being one of the thinkers not the blurters and slingers.

 

(By the way, those peace dollars are awesome; I especially like that red one on the end. Incredible. You're favorite?)

[Kurtdog]

What else is there besides rare and semi-rare US coins that 1) isn't likely to be confiscated (to force people into a fiat currency or new fiat currency) 2) has a well-structured trading marketplace 3) whose price isn't heavily correlated to industrial demand (like silver which isn't likely to be confiscated but whose price is heavily contingent on industrial demand) and which can be very privately owned?

You're mixing up markets a little bit here. Precious metals is a different market than numismatics. On precious metals, there's also luxury demand, as industrial demand gets those economies on their feet. The demand for precious metals is comprised of both of those components.

What is it I'm mixing up, or in other words, what have I said that you disagree with? Of course precious metals are a different market than numismatics; that's one of my points.

You can't use the deficiencies you're seeing in the precious metals market to predict the course in the numismatics market. Those markets are independent. That's not a yardstick for that.

[therealanaconda-migration]

Rare coin prices rose during the great depression. That seems to support my contention.

 

During the great depression, after 1933, you couldn't own gold bullion. You could invest in tangibles or keep your money in the bank. Demand for rare coins certainly didn't rise from overall increased wealth.

[James_OldeTowne]

If society goes to heck, so do coin prices. The best thing for coins long term is an overall feeling of wealth in the world.

(thumbs u

 

I totally agree. This has been proven time and again.

 

I do not agree with the OP, and think coins will actually be either down slightly, or at best stable over the next several years.

[therealanaconda-migration]

You may be right, I don't know; that's why I said in my original post "I wouldn't be surprised....." however....

 

The stock market tanked beginning in 2007 and continued tanking until early 2009; since 2009 it reflects great wealth creation in the US; since it bottomed out in 2009; trillions of dollars have been made in the markets however rare coin prices have been totally flat since that time.

 

Increased wealth has had no effect on the coin market (as reflected in the PCGS3000 index) since 2009.

 

Dow Jones since 2008 or so...

 

 

 

 

 

[RockMyAmadeus]

The coin market tanked in the early 90's, and remained in the doldrums for much of them.

 

Lots of wealth was created in the late 90's. It didn't translate into higher coin prices.

 

Fast forward to the 2000s, we start off with a recession, but by mid-2002, we're recovered and chugging along. The coin market exploded in the early to mid 2000's in a way that quite literally hadn't been seen since the 60's.

 

Why? The economy?

 

Probably not. Many researchers claim it as very simply a result of the 50 state quarter program, and I'm inclined to agree.

[therealanaconda-migration]

This message board needs a "like" button for the post above. There's nothing like facts.

[jimjum12]

The coin market tanked in the early 90's, and remained in the doldrums for much of them.

 

Lots of wealth was created in the late 90's. It didn't translate into higher coin prices.

 

Fast forward to the 2000s, we start off with a recession, but by mid-2002, we're recovered and chugging along. The coin market exploded in the early to mid 2000's in a way that quite literally hadn't been seen since the 60's.

 

Why? The economy?

 

Probably not. Many researchers claim it as very simply a result of the 50 state quarter program, and I'm inclined to agree.

 

..... and Bullion in coin form is the catalyst for today's market vitality.....that and the internet bringing everything to our fingertips.Let's face it.... a nicely designed coin is very compelling. They are objects of desire. I've said it in the Comic Forum and will say it here..... Investment as a motivator is most often a form of denial used to justify the pursuit of a luxury item..... nothing more. That being said, I can still recoup a lot more of my outlay from a coin than I can a night of drinking GOD BLESS...

 

-jimbo(a friend of jesus) (thumbs u