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A prediction and some thoughts about some Cardinal coins coming up for auction

Started by therealanaconda-migration,

111 posts in this topic

therealanaconda-migration

therealanaconda-migration

Posted
Posted

I have a prediction that I will make about many of the coins from the Cardinal Collection Education Foundation.......offered here, beginning January 24th:

 

http://stacksbowers.com/auctions/AuctionLots.aspx?AuctionID=180&SessionID=389

 

 

......most if not all of the big coins....will not meet reserves AND if they do, and they sell for peanuts (which I predict will not happen) then I would be really curious to know why they were put on the market right now and sold for low amounts compared to what was paid for them. I read that Mr. Martin Logies stated that they were being sold because they have "served their purposes". That seems really strange to me. By the way, it always seemed strange to me that there would exists a multimillion dollar collection of coins belonging to a nonprofit organization. (see: http://www.faqs.org/tax-exempt/CA/Cardinal-Collection-Educational-Foundation.html)

 

The 1794 Dollar in 66 Specimen (the one that Mr. Contursi owned for a long time and which is lauded as proabably the first silver dollar to be minted by the US, and which incidentally is a great coin to own for a long time...) was purchased by Mr. Logies not that terribly long ago, and I suspect for close to or more than 6 million dollars.

 

My curiosity is piqued because everything seemed to happen really fast considering the value of the coins....it would seem to me that if you're going to sell a coin that probably cost over 6 million dollars that you would announce it for sale long in advance of it being sold. My suspicions are that we will see another repeat of the 1913 Nickel offered not that long ago......"anyone????....anyone????"

 

Don't get me wrong, I like Martin Logies....he's a really nice and very, very smart guy and the coins that are up for auction are some of the most incredible coins in existence.

 

(And know that my opinion about what may happen will have no effect on what will happen; no one respects my opinion - ask Laura.)

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RWB

RWB

Posted
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I was gonna offer to buy the owner lunch and give him a crisp $10 bill for the 1794 dollar - 900% profit. But now I'm discouraged that it might be excessive.

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e1cnr

e1cnr

Posted
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I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

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Coindude

Coindude

Posted
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I was gonna offer to buy the owner lunch and give him a crisp $10 bill for the 1794 dollar - 900% profit. But now I'm discouraged that it might be excessive.
Yea, I think your offer is quite excessive! Unless you were going to buy lunch too.... off the dollar menu!
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mumu

mumu

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

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MJ

MJ

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

 

So why even bring it up? MJ

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mumu

mumu

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

 

So why even bring it up? MJ

 

Why not bring it up? Are we censored now? Every topic is a huge deal. SOme cranky old men in this hobby.

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coinman_23885

coinman_23885

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

 

So why even bring it up? MJ

 

Why not bring it up? Are we censored now? Every topic is a huge deal. SOme cranky old men in this hobby.

 

No, but it is speculative and some aspects may be moot.

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mumu

mumu

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

 

So why even bring it up? MJ

 

Why not bring it up? Are we censored now? Every topic is a huge deal. SOme cranky old men in this hobby.

 

No, but it is speculative and some aspects may be moot.

 

Which is why I refrained from any unverified juicy details. But the questions about where the proceeds of the sale are still valid. I thought this place was to be a coin museum and learning center was it not? Somewhat of a non profit. Id like to know if they will remain as such and if not what happens to the money. Not becasue I have a right to know but because I have a right to be curious as im sure most would be. Clearly this will be one of those topics for those not in the know to mind their own business I'm sure. Whatever, it wont censor me from asking and I cant help what I hear.

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MJ

MJ

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

 

So why even bring it up? MJ

 

Why not bring it up? Are we censored now? Every topic is a huge deal. SOme cranky old men in this hobby.

 

Censored from what? I guess if rumor and innuendo is your thing that more power to you. You have nothing to offer on this subject but you float that? Just wow.

 

I'm far from old and even more removed from cranky. At least that's what people tell me.

 

Do your thing. I'm out.

 

MJ

 

edited for spelling

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mumu

mumu

Posted
Posted
I always thought it was a good idea if you are really massively rich ->

 

start a non-profit foundation and make donations to it, and use it to make a great cool collection,

 

 

I would hate to see the legal and accounting fees over the years...

 

 

which makes you wonder, where are the sales proceeds going to? Saving up to buy a trillion dollar OBAMAcoin?

 

 

The foundation was set up to be a coin based foundation, educational and museum-ish...so cleaning house seems kind of odd doesnt it? Would the proceeds go to start some kind of new collection? I cant imagine the money from this set would be used up on any other set anywhere near as historic. I have heard rumors about the story behind other aspects of this collection but im nowhere near any kind of situation to even wonder if they are true.

 

So why even bring it up? MJ

 

Why not bring it up? Are we censored now? Every topic is a huge deal. SOme cranky old men in this hobby.

 

No, but it is speculative and some aspects may be moot.

 

I dont feel my comments were any more speculative or inferring than the ops statements of

 

"I read that Mr. Martin Logies stated that they were being sold because they have "served their purposes". That seems really strange to me. By the way, it always seemed strange to me that there would exists a multimillion dollar collection of coins belonging to a nonprofit organization "

 

I was simply pointing out that in relation to that curiosity, there are some stories being passed around by some people in the know. But that I was not comfortable repeating.

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therealanaconda-migration

therealanaconda-migration

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How can the coins fail to meet reserves if they are (supposedly) being sold at no reserve?

 

The coins are being sold at no reserve? That is totally insane given the nature of the coin biz and the current economic market and given the amount of notice potential buyers have had for the auction.

 

Something is up. Someone needs to raise serious cash.....that is my honest opinion. Seems that a non-profit organization would have some sort of duty to sell it's assets in a sane way, and it is my opinion that selling those types of coins at a no reserve auction is not a smart thing to do.

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MarkFeld

MarkFeld

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Apparently, the announcement of the sale of these coins occurred in early November.....less than three months before the sale takes place:

 

http://news.coinupdate.com/stacks-bowers-galleries-to-auction-cardinal-collection-1691/

 

Adrian, that doesn't sound nearly as unusual or odd to me, as it apparently does to you. Three months is plenty of time.

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therealanaconda-migration

therealanaconda-migration

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It's not uncommon for pre-auction bids on coins to come no where close to what the coins actually sell for until right before the sale.

 

Just a reminder about how much the Cardinal Collection paid for the 1794 Dollar in Specimen 66......$7.85 million was paid for the coin, less than three years ago.

 

(See http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2010/05/20/1794_silver_dollar_sells_for_record_785_million/)

 

That is also interesting since the asset amount of $7,743,508 is the amount quoted here:

 

http://www.faqs.org/tax-exempt/CA/Cardinal-Collection-Educational-Foundation.html

 

although it does report $1,677,596 as the amount of income, however it doesn't appear to give the date for that income.

 

Here's is a notable quote from the aforementioned article.....:

 

"The Cardinal Collection curator had been one of a handful of experts Contursi had allowed to examine the coin after he bought it. He joked that Logies had had his eye on it ever since. 'He just finally made me an offer I couldn't refuse,' he laughed."

 

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therealanaconda-migration

therealanaconda-migration

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Update: "No Reserve" does indeed seem to be listed on each and every coin.

 

The Chain Cent in PCGS MS 65 is at $375,000;

the Wreath Cent in PCGS MS69 is at $375,000;

the 1792 Half Disme in NGC MS-68 is at $650,000 and

the 1794 Dollar in MS 66 Specimen $1.6 million

 

Here are my predictions with regard to the hammer plus commissions:

 

Chain: $650,000

Wreath: $550,000

Half Disme: $875,000

1794 Dollar: $3.1 million

 

If others will make predictions, we can average them together and see if there is any "collective wisdom" out there of any significance with regard to these four coins.

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BillJones

BillJones

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The current bids, I guess I'm out ... :(:blush:

 

I think the final bids are going to be lot higher than what is up there now. I think that the 1794 dollar might set a new record for an American coin.

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therealanaconda-migration

therealanaconda-migration

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I hope you're right with regard to the record price but I would be stunned. Very happy for Martin and the coin community but very, very stunned. The coin was on the market for years for less than the 1933 St., before Mr. Logies bought it less than three years ago.

 

But hey, there are a lot of very, very rich people out there and you never can predict what will happen in the world of numismatics.

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cardinal-migration

cardinal-migration

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So much angst, misinformation and speculation! Do I hear an axe grinding in the backround?

 

The sale was first announced in late August (5 months before the sale), and public advertising began in early September. Major players were contacted personally and numerous private viewings were given. There are no worries about the advertising lead time. (Besides, wasn't it just within the last week or two that it was announced that the Walton 1913 nickel will be auctioned...and when will that action be? Central States auction, mid-April 2013, just 3 months away.)

 

Regarding the reason for selling, that too has already been stated publicly. Just check out the CoinWorld article in the December 3rd, 2012 issue (published online November 26th). I had been receiving competing offers on numerous coins at truly eye-popping numbers. So, considering the set had already been completed for an extended time, and already researched, published and displayed, and recognizing that further upgrades would not be available, it seemed opportune to consider those offers and let the bidders fight it out publicly in an auction setting. If I had any worries about the values, and was still interested in selling, I would have just done so privately. Yes, high-population circulated coins have not fared well in the current market, but these coins follow a different market.

 

It will be interesting to see the final results! You know the Eliasberg chain cent sold last January after just a few months exposure and realized $1.38 million. In approving the PCGS-MS65BN Beckwith-Collins-Naftzger-Cardinal example, John Albanese was quoted recently as saying it was superior to the Eliasberg cent. So, my guess is it does at least go higher than 50% of what the lesser Eliasberg coin brought.

 

The 1794 dollar was never "on the market" for a published price less than the 1933 SG, let alone on the market "for years" at a lesser price. Yes, the coin was known to the market and it was displayed for years, but it was never featured in any price listings. For the last 5 or more years before I bought it, it was on permanent display at the American Numismatic Association museum and at ANA events. The ANA had it continously insured for $10 million. So, to say it was marketed for years at a lesser price would suggest the ANA was okay with insurance fraud. Not too realistic!

 

There are quite a few mega-millionaire and billionaire coin collectors out there to participate. I seriously doubt that any will brag and show their hands publicly before the auction, but I do expect they will not back down from going after what they want.

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Mr.Mcknowitall

Mr.Mcknowitall

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So much angst, misinformation and speculation! Do I hear an axe grinding in the backround?

 

The sale was first announced in late August (5 months before the sale), and public advertising began in early September. Major players were contacted personally and numerous private viewings were given. There are no worries about the advertising lead time. (Besides, wasn't it just within the last week or two that it was announced that the Walton 1913 nickel will be auctioned...and when will that action be? Central States auction, mid-April 2013, just 3 months away.)

 

Regarding the reason for selling, that too has already been stated publicly. Just check out the CoinWorld article in the December 3rd, 2012 issue (published online November 26th). I had been receiving competing offers on numerous coins at truly eye-popping numbers. So, considering the set had already been completed for an extended time, and already researched, published and displayed, and recognizing that further upgrades would not be available, it seemed opportune to consider those offers and let the bidders fight it out publicly in an auction setting. If I had any worries about the values, and was still interested in selling, I would have just done so privately. Yes, high-population circulated coins have not fared well in the current market, but these coins follow a different market.

 

It will be interesting to see the final results! You know the Eliasberg chain cent sold last January after just a few months exposure and realized $1.38 million. In approving the PCGS-MS65BN Beckwith-Collins-Naftzger-Cardinal example, John Albanese was quoted recently as saying it was superior to the Eliasberg cent. So, my guess is it does at least go higher than 50% of what the lesser Eliasberg coin brought.

 

The 1794 dollar was never "on the market" for a published price less than the 1933 SG, let alone on the market "for years" at a lesser price. Yes, the coin was known to the market and it was displayed for years, but it was never featured in any price listings. For the last 5 or more years before I bought it, it was on permanent display at the American Numismatic Association museum and at ANA events. The ANA had it continously insured for $10 million. So, to say it was marketed for years at a lesser price would suggest the ANA was okay with insurance fraud. Not too realistic!

 

There are quite a few mega-millionaire and billionaire coin collectors out there to participate. I seriously doubt that any will brag and show their hands publicly before the auction, but I do expect they will not back down from going after what they want.

 

Game, Set, and Match. :preach:

 

I appreciate the thoughts and information.

 

Thank You.

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