The Wells Fargo Hoard .. How did this happen? 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/13/2023 at 1:45 PM, RWB said:

Unless either buyer or seller of the original "pile" is willing to truthfully record what occurred, the facts will never be known. That is "business as usual."

Secrecy seems tied to betraying confidences given to folks who helped them get the hoards and/or the actual numbers to prevent price collapse.

The Fairmont Hoard seems to have been an overhang on the market for years.  Better IMO to dump them all and let the market price clear. 

 

[zadok]

On 6/13/2023 at 4:14 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Secrecy seems tied to betraying confidences given to folks who helped them get the hoards and/or the actual numbers to prevent price collapse.

The Fairmont Hoard seems to have been an overhang on the market for years.  Better IMO to dump them all and let the market price clear. 

 

...often in life n as well in coin collecting, personal n professional confidences come into conflict with the historical record...im guessing that the confidences outweigh the record most of the time i know my balance would lean that way....

[GoldFinger1969]

On 6/14/2023 at 8:50 AM, zadok said:

...often in life n as well in coin collecting, personal n professional confidences come into conflict with the historical record...im guessing that the confidences outweigh the record most of the time i know my balance would lean that way....

Well said. 

I also wonder if people are now trying to accumulate a hoard where none exists....you find a few dozen coins at various locations (i.e., banks) and rather than treat them each as their own, you combine them and market them as a special hoard tied to a bank, a time period (i.e., WW II), etc. 

Makes the coins more valuable than if you sell them drip-by-drip-by-drip like Paul Wittlin did when he was the overseas buyer for Paramount in the 1950's and 1960's.

[GoldFinger1969]

Getting back to the Wells Fargo Hoard....I continue to be very confused by the agreed upon total of 19,900 coins (assuming it wasn't larger, as Roger theorizes)....I have 7,780 coins from PCGS and 5,540 coins from NGC.  Even with NO HAIRCUT to the NGC coins to eliminate double-counting (in other words, a total closer to the simple sum of about 13,320) we're way short of 19,900.

I never read anything that said a significant number of the coins were ungradeable and pure bullion.  I did read where the lowest coin graded was MS-63 (I'll check the pop reports).  The premiums to spot gold for MS-65's were over 200% so even low-60's coins should have been worth grading.  This was less than 30 years ago, besides Gillio, someone should have more details on the disposition of the Hoard via grading.

Weird Thought:  Is it POSSIBLE that the Hoard was 9,900 coins and Gillio has never corrected the total ?  Or others got the total wrong ?  If 9,900 then you can get that with the sum total of PCGS coins plus a haircutted NGC total.  In this case, however, PCGS had what I believe was exclusive rights to grade the Hoard or at least the first 2 big submittances (maybe someone from NGC can chime in, I believe they did originally grade the 3rd submittance).  So the amount of crossovers to PCGS would be LOW...but maybe PCGS's tight grading led many to cross to NGC for a higher numerical grade ?   Usually the cross-overs are NGC to PCGS, this time it could have been the other way.

Just trying to think outside the box here. 

Edited June 14, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/5/2022 at 12:02 PM, Alex in PA. said:

I've been studying up on this Hoard and the best I can find is 9,900 to 10,000 coins.  Several articles and I cannot guarantee their accuracy.

This is why I asked or floated that number in my previous post.  I've seen those numbers at a few websites, including some dealers who would/should know better.  At first I thought it was a typo or simple error and ignored them.  Now, I wonder. 

I even saw the 9,900 or 10,000 figure used in a Heritage archive description for one of the coins.

Edited June 14, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

19,900 vs. 10,000 Coins:  It appears that it was just sloppy writing causing the confusion on the size of the Wells Fargo Hoard and the grading events.

It was apparently NOT the case that every single coin in the WF Hoard was graded.....there were 19,900 coins in total apparently, but only about half (10,000 or so) got certified.  The other coins must have been circulated or so bag marked that even if they got graded it would be low-60's and not worth doing from a financial POV, even with the WF pedigree.

[GoldFinger1969]

Wells Fargo Hoard, Initial Selling Prices:  Found an old article that mentioned that the MS-65's sold for about $1,200....the 66's for $3,000 and the 67's for $10,000. That was with gold trading $280-$380 from 1996-2001. The premiums were HUGE. 

Ironically, buying the better coin didn't work out this time as more and more 67's hit the market and the premium collapsed even as gold went up 6-fold since. 65 owners have doubled their $$$.....66's are about even.  But the 67's are down 30-40% ! 

Interesting to see how it played out over many decades and with gold rising 6-fold over that period of time.

Edited April 7 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

BTW, the average price paid per coin was approximately $755.  This was about double the average market price for gold for 1996, so the premium paid was about 100% by Gillio's buyers. 

[VKurtB]

On 4/12/2024 at 1:18 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

BTW, the average price paid per coin was approximately $755.  This was about double the average market price for gold for 1996, so the premium paid was about 100% by Gillio's buyers. 

And THAT is what makes it virtually certain that all buyers will lose money. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/12/2024 at 7:57 PM, VKurtB said:

And THAT is what makes it virtually certain that all buyers will lose money. 

Well...the premium at that time was rich and the No Motto Wells Fargo coins were more expensive than non-WF or other common Saints.  But with gold at under $400 an ounce, you got bailed out by the gold price rise since then to an extent.  Lousy returns, yes, but the coins are worth more in MS-65, but flattish in MS-66.  The MS-67 buyers got hosed. 

[VKurtB]

On 4/13/2024 at 10:24 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well...the premium at that time was rich and the No Motto Wells Fargo coins were more expensive than non-WF or other common Saints.  But with gold at under $400 an ounce, you got bailed out by the gold price rise since then to an extent.  Lousy returns, yes, but the coins are worth more in MS-65, but flattish in MS-66.  The MS-67 buyers got hosed. 

Due to increasing known populations? I know that Don Kagin is/was a master at bringing a huge hoard of high end gold onto the market without immediately harming prices. It was an incredible job. But for their believers, the population reports eventually catch up. 

Edited April 13 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 11:36 AM, VKurtB said:

Due to increasing known populations? I know that Don Kagin is/was a master at bringing a huge hoard of high end gold onto the market without immediately harming prices. It was an incredible job. But for their believers, the population reports eventually catch up. 

I think it was the hype.  Same thing happened with the SSCA coins even though gold was $300 an ounce -- the premiums even for restrikes were insane.

I wonder how many buyers thought that the "Wells Fargo" moniker referred to where they were found -- not where they were stored in 1996 when the transaction took place !!   I mean, if they had done the transaction in a McDonald's they could be the McDonald's No-Motto Hoard !! 

[VKurtB]

On 4/13/2024 at 5:09 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I think it was the hype.  Same thing happened with the SSCA coins even though gold was $300 an ounce -- the premiums even for restrikes were insane.

I wonder how many buyers thought that the "Wells Fargo" moniker referred to where they were found -- not where they were stored in 1996 when the transaction took place !!   I mean, if they had done the transaction in a McDonald's they could be the McDonald's No-Motto Hoard !! 

Or the 57th Street Hoard? (I wish that was a joke, but it’s unfortunately not.) It’s an ongoing indictment of the “all flash and dash” ethos that infects virtually all gold “rediscoveries”. It is abusive marketing by ethically bankrupt con men hawking a commodity that engenders excessively emotional devotion. 
 

Have I made myself clear yet?

Perhaps they should just go the last mile and strap on the Hopalong Cassidy outfits and toy six-shooters, or a Lone Ranger mask. Goldbugs need to grow the heck up. 

Edited April 13 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:48 PM, VKurtB said:

Or the 57th Street Hoard? (I wish that was a joke, but it’s unfortunately not.) It’s an ongoing indictment of the “all flash and dash” ethos that infects virtually all gold “rediscoveries”. It is abusive marketing by ethically bankrupt con men hawking a commodity that engenders excessively emotional devotion.  Have I made myself clear yet? Perhaps they should just go the last mile and strap on the Hopalong Cassidy outfits and toy six-shooters, or a Lone Ranger mask. Goldbugs need to grow the heck up. 

There are some legitimate Saint/DE hoards over the years.  They DO have an interesting provenance and I don't mind paying up for them all else equal (the SSCA's are different since they have to be restored due to water damage).

I personally find hoards fascinating.  Some of the smaller ones owned by recluses or found overseas (i.e., the Hackney Hoard) are either so infrequent or they never got their label as I haven't seen them to my recollection.  Ditto the Samaszko Hoard. 

I wouldn't bet against the premium dissipation for the WF NM coins to be in part because folks got misled/confused on the "Wells Fargo" provenance and thought it was the origin and not where they changed hands and got stored, especially with the MS-67's.  It would have been better if Ron Gillio disclosed the origin of the hoard and maybe there was some nice South or Central American pedigree involving military juntas over the decades. 

I think the initial selling price might have been LOWER but they would have held their value longer.

Edited April 13 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:22 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

There are some legitimate Saint/DE hoards over the years.  They DO have an interesting provenance and I don't mind paying up for them all else equal (the SSCA's are different since they have to be restored due to water damage).

I personally find hoards fascinating.  Some of the smaller ones owned by recluses or found overseas (i.e., the Hackney Hoard) are either so infrequent or they never got their label as I haven't seen them to my recollection.  Ditto the Samaszko Hoard. 

Liberty Head hoards make Saints look tiny by comparison.  

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 7:25 PM, VKurtB said:

Liberty Head hoards make Saints look tiny by comparison.  

There are some nice LH DE hoards, yes.  Numerically, I'm not sure they outnumber the Saint hoards, would be a good number crunching debate.

You have the 1983 El Salvardor/MTB Hoard which was mostly Saints and the WF NM Hoard really boosting the Saint totals.  Baltimore, Saddle Ridge, Samaszko, Champagne, Hackney, and even Fairmont are not enough to make it up, I am pretty sure.  Even the Fairmont is more noticeable for the drip-drip-drip than the huge surge in commons. 

Of course, more small hoards heavy in LH DEs can swing the numbers over time.  Have to see what is found and what comes out of collections, estates, SDBs, and maybe even self-storage units. 

Edited April 13 by GoldFinger1969

[VKurtB]

On 4/13/2024 at 6:28 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

There are some nice LH DE hoards, yes.  Numerically, I'm not sure they outnumber the Saint hoards, would be a good number crunching debate.

You have the 1983 El Salvardor/MTB Hoard which was mostly Saints and the WF NM Hoard really boosting the Saint totals.  Baltimore, Saddle Ridge, Samaszko, Champagne, Hackney, and even Fairmont are not enough to make it up, I am pretty sure.  Even the Fairmont is more noticeable for the drip-drip-drip than the huge surge in commons. 

Of course, more small hoards heavy in LH DEs can swing the numbers over time.  Have to see what is found and what comes out of collections, estates, SDBs, and maybe even self-storage units. 

Being as familiar as I am with the “older” pre-Obama Swiss banking secrecy situation (both my father and his brother, my uncle, had Swiss numbered accounts - all re-onshored during the Obama administration), I believe that there will be further drip-drip-drip “new” hoards or mini-hoards coming out of Switzerland. Only Americans were affected by the gold prohibition. The Swiss banks sold U.S. gold to clients worldwide. What condition? Well, that’s the question, ain’t it? 

Edited April 13 by VKurtB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/13/2024 at 7:41 PM, VKurtB said:

Being as familiar as I am with the “older” pre-Obama Swiss banking secrecy situation (both my father and his brother, my uncle, had Swiss numbered accounts - all re-onshored during the Obama administration), I believe that there will be further drip-drip-drip “new” hoards or mini-hoards coming out of Switzerland. Only Americans were affected by the gold prohibition. The Swiss banks sold U.S. gold to clients worldwide. What condition? Well, that’s the question, ain’t it? 

Even AU-condition coins from "The Fab Five" -- 1929-1932 Saints -- would be a game changer if we even got a few dozen of each.  

If QDB's bank rep was correct and you could get tens of thousands of DE's/Saints in the 1960's from Swiss banks, then there could be some more hoards of common s and/or worn coins coming over as you state.  Maybe mixed in with the occasional numismatic !! 

However, going on over 60 years since that time, the original owners of the SDBs from the 1930's have certainly passed on, and their heirs should now be getting up there in age unless it was something bequeathed to a future heir or a child (90 years since FDR's gold prohibition).

As the Fairmont Hoard shows....even if secrecy is maintained, the drip-drip-drip of any population game-changer will be noticed.

Edited April 15 by GoldFinger1969