The Wells Fargo Hoard .. How did this happen? 1 1

[GoldFinger1969]

I have a note that says that the size of the Gillio Wells Fargo Hoard may have been as large as 150,000 coins (over 7x the oft-cited number). 

Does anybody recall seeing that anywhere ?  I am sure it is speculation, I am just trying to remember where I read it.   Or if I was reading about the 1983 MTB Hoard and inadvertently thought "WF Hoard" by mistake.

Edited April 5, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[Alex in PA.]

On 4/5/2022 at 10:17 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

may have been as large as 150,000 coins

I've been studying up on this Hoard and the best I can find is 9,900 to 10,000 coins.  Several articles and I cannot guarantee their accuracy.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/5/2022 at 12:02 PM, Alex in PA. said:

I've been studying up on this Hoard and the best I can find is 9,900 to 10,000 coins.  Several articles and I cannot guarantee their accuracy.

It is pretty much certain that 19,900 coins were submitted to the TPGs.  So I am 99.99% sure that the WF Hoard is that size.

If that was the first submission, then there could have been other coins (including non-Saints and maybe non-gold coins) that were secretly disbursed elsewhere though it would be difficult to submit a large hoard to the TPGs and keep it a secret, not have dealers find out, etc.

I think that 150,000 theoretical figure is for the 1983 MTB Hoard which was about 50,000 gold coins.  Might have even been from something Roger or someone else posted in the RWB Saints Thread.  I've never read anywhere that the Gillio WF Hoard was not 100% of what the oft-cited 19,900 coins amounts to.  Gillio is still around, nobody has ever suggested (certainly he hasn't) that there were other coins. 

OTOH, the records for the 1983 MTB Hoard got destroyed and there was never a final accurate accounting from MTB or Stack's, to my knowledge. 

I think I just got my hoards confused. 

Edited April 5, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 4/5/2022 at 12:02 PM, Alex in PA. said:

I've been studying up on this Hoard and the best I can find is 9,900 to 10,000 coins.  Several articles and I cannot guarantee their accuracy.

I have some good info on the WF Hoard earlier in this thread, including from the DL website.

Other details are in Bower's Double Eagles and Roger's Saints books.  Pretty much the same thing.  As Roger has said, for whatever reason, Gillio and any other parties have not divulged more details regarding the hoard even though it is coming up on 30 years since it was found and market forces and marketing can no longer be a concern.

[GoldFinger1969]

"The Best One" is up for sale over at GC.  It is the ONLY MS-69 Saint-Gaudens Double Eagle...in fact, I wonder how many coins pre-1950 are able to get that grade ?

https://www.greatcollections.com/Coin/1132876/1908-Saint-Gaudens-Gold-Double-Eagle-No-Motto-Wells-Fargo-Nevada-Gold-The-Best-One-PCGS-MS-69

[GoldFinger1969]

Alex, just wanted to make sure you re-found this thread.  It's got lots of information on The Wells Fargo Hoard.

There may be other posts on The WF Hoard in the much longer RWB Saints Book thread. 

[RWB]

As in some other "special label" coins and groups of coins, divulging the truth can easily poke a large hole in the mystique and lore so carefully built in the past.

[Alex in PA.]

Well, here is my 'theory' or W.A.G. as one might call it.  1.  No one living today knows exactly who owned this 'Hoard' or where this amount of coins came from.  I believe, in nother source, RWB mentioned Europe.  2.  Now, no one living today can tell us the 'exact' distribution of the Merkers Mine Hoard of NAZI loot.  The are records 'missing', lost, destroyed, etc. with a closing statement that after some was returned to Allied coutries the 'remainder' was dispersed to 'Displaced Persons'.  Sure it was bcause someone entered that statement into the record.

Edited May 13, 2022 by Alex in PA.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/13/2022 at 12:28 PM, Alex in PA. said:

1.  No one living today knows exactly who owned this 'Hoard' or where this amount of coins came from.  I believe, in nother source, RWB mentioned Europe. 

That MIGHT be true, Alex.  We don't know with 100% certainty.  

Ron Gillio might know but he hasn't talked yet.  But it's logical to assume it did NOT come from Europe because the quality of the coins would indicate South/Central American origin (if not Mexico) as these DEs tended to not move as much, get bagmarks, etc.

On 5/13/2022 at 12:28 PM, Alex in PA. said:

2.  Now, no one living today can tell us the 'exact' distribution of the Merkers Mine Hoard of NAZI loot.  The are records 'missing', lost, destroyed, etc. with a closing statement that after some was returned to Allied coutries the 'remainder' was dispersed to 'Displaced Persons'.  Sure it was bcause someone entered that statement into the record.

I'm not as familiar with the Merkers Mind Hoard as I should be.  So I won't interject here.  I think Roger has much more knowledge and of course he has a few paragraphs on the MMH in his Saints book.

Edited May 13, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Wrong on the Merkers Mine. The Germans kept excellent records and almost everything in the mint got back to the rightful owners, or their families. Exceptions were boxes of personal items such as rings and jewelry, many of whose owners were murdered.

[GoldFinger1969]

Interesting that MS-67 Wells Fargo Saints went up about 50% in price from mid-2020 to earlier this year, from about $11,000 to $17,000.  In that grade it's still pretty common, you'd think that boost would come at the 68 level but maybe it was dragged upwards.

Do NOT see that price jump at the MS-66 level for OGH or CAC coins, generally about $5,000 and $7,000, respectively.

Thinking about getting an OGH MS-66 if I can swing it.  If I goto FUN 2023 that'll be my main goal and would probably turn in some regular bullion coins to get the Wells Fargo Saint. 

[Tazcollector]

I think all of the recent 08 NM 67 non-CAC trades have been in the $7K to $9K range.  A CAC one traded for a little over $16K earlier this year at auction (don’t think it was Wells Fargo) but I’m aware of private sales a bit higher.  A couple of WF 68s have traded this year for $20K (there are zero 68 CAC out of a relatively large pop–CAC must not like them for some reason since I’m sure many have been submitted given the price point of that coin).

Edited October 12, 2022 by Tazcollector

[GoldFinger1969]

On 10/11/2022 at 9:59 PM, Tazcollector said:

I think all of the recent 08 NM 67 non-CAC trades have been in the $7K to $9K range. 

Yeah, that's the ball park.  Closer to mid-$7's based on HA.

On 10/11/2022 at 9:59 PM, Tazcollector said:

A CAC one traded for a little over $16K earlier this year at auction (don’t think it was Wells Fargo) but I’m aware of private sales a bit higher.  A couple of WF 68s have traded this year for $20K (there are zero 68 CAC out of a relatively large pop–CAC must not like them for some reason since I’m sure many have been submitted given the price point of that coin).

Rumour is that JA @ CAC is tough on gold and very much so on the 1908 WF NM's.  More so than non-WF 1908 NM's.  So if you have a CAC at the price inflection point it's going to jump the big gap between the 67's and 68's.   So I'm not surprised that the 67 CAC sold for $16,000.

For a while, no 1908 WF NM's had CACs (other 1908 NM's did), but as Mark Feld corrected me, today lots of the  Wells Fargo Hoard has gotten CAC'ed though not a high percentage of the entire hoard.

Edited October 12, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

I still see the 1908 NM/"Wells Fargo Discount" when folks try and sell the coins as commons for a given grade and think they can get 1924/27/28 money for it.  They can't.

Even the 1924's have gone begging lately compared to similar 1927's and 1928's because of the higher pop numbers.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/28/2009 at 9:43 AM, BillJones said:

Having looked at the photos, I'd have to say that I might have a hard time giving that coin an MS-69. I can spot at least three small marks on the obverse that would be visible, at least to me, with the naked eye. To me an MS-69 should have no more than couple of barely perceptable marks. So I guess I would have called an MS-68, but what do I know?

I've heard that from others.  But when you get into the top of the Wells Fargo coins, the MCMVII UHRs, or the best of the MCMVII HRs.... you seem to have a fluid grading system where the ability of a buyer to pay more for a higher-graded coin appears to have influenced the grading even if subconsciously.

Thankfully, PCGS did NOT give out a 70 grade even though they admit they tried to justify one. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/28/2009 at 9:55 AM, Oldtrader3 said:

There seemed to be a collector perception also that the Wells Fargo Hoard coins were graded rather liberally. I have looked at quite a few MS65/MS64, Wells Fargo coins, passed on them and thought that they were overgraded. This overgrading has been the issue with several other hoards as well.

Agreed....I don't think it was because of the coins or the nature of the hoard....standards were just starting to liberalize after the opening decade of TPGs.

[Henri Charriere]

[In an aside, I would be very curious to know the year of the oldest coin upon which a grade of MS-70 has been bestowed.  It seems it would have had to have been something of fairly recent "vintage."] 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 5/28/2009 at 7:42 PM, DaveG said:

I dunno, but just from the way that Bowers quotes Gillio:  "Of all the different hoard I have bought in Europe, Asia, America, and elsewhere. . .", I get the distinct impression that this hoard was in Europe (Switzerland?).  Or, perhaps Gillio just wants people to think that.

Interesting, and worthy of consideration alongside all other speculation.

What leads me to think it was NOT a European hoard is that hiding/missing this quantity of DEs for decades would have been tough.  Plus, you had representatives of U.S. dealers actively scouring the European banks in the 1950', 1960's, and 1970's.  I would think they wouldn't have missed a 20,000 coin hoard all that time.

That said, clearly there are sensitive issues with disclosing the COMPLETE story with these coins.  I hope Mr. Gillio does release them at some time, even if posthumously for himself or the counterparties.  I suspect that whomever he purchased them from was sensitive about the sale for whatever reasons.

[GoldFinger1969]

Total Graded Wells Fargo:  My understanding is that all or nearly all of the 19,900 coins were given to PCGS and/or NGC to grade, with the exception of a few of the clearly heavily-circulated coins.  But when I combine the PCGS (7,767) and NGC (5,535) census totals for Wells Fargo 1908 NM, I get just over 13,300.  

I can't believe they didn't grade/certify over 6,000 of the coins.  They wouldn't have sold them raw.

Anybody able to help reconcile the numbers ? 

[Henri Charriere]

I do not believe I can reconcile the numbers (can't practice accounting w/o a license ) but allow me to ask you one question:  what would the effect of the valuation of all coins comprising this Hoard be, if the remainder were authenticated and certified, i.e., up or down?  

[VKurtB]

On 11/21/2022 at 10:05 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

I do not believe I can reconcile the numbers (can't practice accounting w/o a license ) but allow me to ask you one question:  what would the effect of the valuation of all coins comprising this Hoard be, if the remainder were authenticated and certified, i.e., up or down?  

C’mon Quintus. Do math in public. It’s the sign of a true mensch. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/16/2022 at 4:08 PM, Quintus Arrius said:

[In an aside, I would be very curious to know the year of the oldest coin upon which a grade of MS-70 has been bestowed.  It seems it would have had to have been something of fairly recent "vintage."] 

Great question.....I would guess early-1980's or maybe 1970's.  

But that would exclude proofs and/or coins in proof sets that were preserved in bubble wrap or whatever.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 11/21/2022 at 11:05 AM, Quintus Arrius said:

I do not believe I can reconcile the numbers (can't practice accounting w/o a license ) but allow me to ask you one question:  what would the effect of the valuation of all coins comprising this Hoard be, if the remainder were authenticated and certified, i.e., up or down?  

My guess is that the market effect of almost 20,000 coins in MS-65 quality and above (maybe 10% were below Gem Mint)...was in the market by the late-1990's.  The coins were pretty well accepted into the market....no huge drop in prices, if you go by RWB's Saints DE book price matrices and articles from that time.

The $64,000 Question is...what if the hoard was LARGER or other mini-hoards have come out over the years/decades ?  But this is speculation.

If the market price of the coins is the best analysis and predictor about what is happening to the supply....then the stability of the price (albeit at lower levels compared to other common Saints for the same grade) has discounted that extra coinage. 

I've talked about his in the main Wells Fargo Thread...but just as an example....in MS-67 the Wells Fargo 1908 NM will set you back about $7,000 (maybe a bit less).  No other Saint at that grade will cost you less than $10-$12,000 (including the 1924) and a few commons get rare at the Superb Gem level and will go for $15-$18,000 at the MS-67 level. 

Edited November 21, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

I'm not an expert on grading and the crack-out thing, but this paragraph from the book seems to indicate that the The Wells Fargo Hoard might have been MULTIPLES larger than the 19,900 coins cited.  I don't know what to make of the "authentication events" number, it has to be inflated, to what extent I don't know:

"...The present (early-2015) quantities, in excess of 260,000 authentication events, are more than seven times the Gillio/Wells Fargo hoard quantities. Although some rise due to resubmissions is expected, an increase of this magnitude, among only one date/mint, suggests thousands of new coins coming on the market from the same source. With this in mind, it is posited that the total quantity of double eagles in the original group was at approximately 150,000 pieces, possibly more."

Edited December 3, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

Since we are talking about 1908 Wells Fargo No-Motto Saints...does anybody have one in a high grade ?  

[GoldFinger1969]

Check This Beauty Out:  An MS-66 1908 Wells Fargo No-Motto CAC OGH.  I'm not sure if it's the lighting or the coin really has this luster, but it really stands out compared to other 1908 NM's (WF and non-WF) that I have seen.

 

Edited December 12, 2022 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

FYI....looks like the lowest-price Ebay 1908 Wells Fargo No Motto (with or without OGH and/or CAC) asks are about 20% above what completed sales go for at HA and GC even after fees.

[GoldFinger1969]

Grading Of The WF Hoard:  I just realized that I have NEVER seen a definitive statement on whether all or just some of the 19,900 Wells Fargo Saints were graded and certified.

My understanding was that ALL were graded as the numismatic premium plus the Wells Fargo pedigree made it worthwhile to grade them all, even those below Gem Quality (MS-65).  But based on the numbers I see for MS65-69 coins....and a statement that of the "graded" coins only 1 was below MS-65 (a sole MS-63), I'm not sure.

The statement ATS implies that of about 9,000 that were SUBMITTED FOR GRADING, only one was an MS-63.  It doesn't say out of the entire 19,900 that only 1 coin was graded as such.

In other words....I can't tell if about 10,000 coins were clearly circulated (I don't know why half would be circulated and the other half pristine) and not worthy of being submitted for grading.  If you knew a coin was going to get an AU grade or even a grade from MS60-62, maybe you held it out.

Does anybody active in coins in the 1990's recall if they graded all the coins or only a part of them ? 

Edited January 5, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 2/26/2022 at 5:15 PM, RWB said:

The first 1908 DE used the same master dies as 1907. No motto on rev and mushy stars, short rays etc on obv.  The second 1908 version used a new master die with much sharper details and long rays, but the same no motto reverse. The third 1908 version used the improved 1908 long ray obverse, and a new reverse with motto.

Very important facts regarding the 3 different types of 1908's for anybody starting late in this thread. 

Edited June 13, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

Unless either buyer or seller of the original "pile" is willing to truthfully record what occurred, the facts will never be known. That is "business as usual."