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gold closed friday 11/14/03 at $398.30 on the comex when will it hit $400+?

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Well, personally I think the current environment is reminiscent of the 1985-89 period, where there was relatively mild inflation and as the economy picked up steam, inflation heated up, leading to rising gold prices. The only difference is that I think there is a much larger disconnect between real inflation and the core CPI numbers that the financial press is fixated on. I think that inflation was actually higher, expecially considering the increases in food, energy and housing prices (the former two being ignored in the core rate). The only wild card is China, which with cheap exports can depress some prices, but with increase demand for gold could support the continued increase in gold prices despite overall tame inflation. So, bottom line is that I believe there is a solid chance of reaching $500 sometime in 2004, with a chance at $600 in 2005. After that, I think we might be in for another weak period similar to the early 1990s. Just my opinion though.

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Precious metals has been fun to watch in recent times. I think it is wishful thinking that Gold is heading to 500 or 600.


In my opinion, unless something major happens, gold is going to level off from this point forward. We might see some small price swings. Based on the chart, if it does head higher over the course of the next few months, I honestly can't see it heading higher than $420. If I had to make a guestimate, I would say the range is going to be between $370-$420 over the next 6 months.


If it does go higher, it will be nice to watch smile.gif



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