What will gold come down to over the next five years?

[WinstonWare]

I need to fill the gold page of my dansco 7070. Most of my coins are xf so I’m looking at gold coins that won’t be too much higher than bullion value. I’m hesitant to buy gold at $900 when I’m not in any real hurry to fill these page but I would like to do it over the next 5 years. So, throw out a number. How low will gold go over the next 5 years?

 

$625?

[harvey8542]

$725

[physics-fan3.14]

How on earth can anyone predict that? It will go up and down, and then up again. It's peaked for now, if that's what you're asking. And it will never go back to $300, to set a lower limit.

[michael]

800

[okbustchaser]

Hopefully back to 35.00. (along with a coresponding drop in silver) I doubt that it will drop under $600.00 however.

[MBA101]

I think that gold should be at 1000 if you adjust for inflation, if not more. So right now, gold is slightly undervalued. Eventually gold should hold over 1000 for good in my opinion. The population of the world is outgrowing the new supplies of gold, coupled with inflation will see to it. We may see a peak of some crazy number, just like how crazy 850 was back in 1980, but the price will come back down to a new reasonable level.

 

That is my prediction and I am sticking to it.

[Conder101]

I think that gold should be at 1000 if you adjust for inflation, if not more.

Picking when as a starting point for your adjustment?

[Oldtrader3]

There is a concensus that gold should be about $1200. adjusted for inflation of the weak dollar. I do not believe that silver is going to go below about $12.00 any time soon even in the short term. Look at demand outstripping supply without the burden of China's industrial growth. IMHO, silver will be up over $20. to stay within a year. Consider that an individual could corner the silver supply for about $3 billion. The Hunt brothers would have had fun cornering the current low supply of silver, worldwide. Almost no silver is being produced in the US since Homestake and other big mines have closed. Hecla Mining is about the only large US producer and is producing 6MM ounces per year, a drop in the bucket of US demand.

[MBA101]

I think that gold should be at 1000 if you adjust for inflation, if not more.

Picking when as a starting point for your adjustment?

 

I believe you could use the 1930's as your starting point. But I have seen adjustments going back to the early 1800's.

[World Colonial]

Gold has been in a 9 year bull market since 1999 or seven years since 2001 (both at about $250). So it is reasonable to expect that the correction (which is what I believe it will be) will last for about three years. If the deflationionary contraction that I expect also occurs, it could fall to the $600 level or so.

[coinman1794]

With a continually weakening dollar and increasing demand for gold in new markets like China, I don't see it comming down with any regularity before it goes up much higher.

[Oldtrader3]

Gasoline was selling for $0.16 per gallon in 1964. Gold was (artifically held) priced at $42./ ounce in 1964. Gas is $3.73 here in Washington now in 2008. That is 2331% inflation on gasoline. The same inflation on gold raises the price $979. per ounce in 2008. These two comodities are probably relative because they are both supply/demand sensitive and the price for both is controlled by tycoons (i.e. OPEC barons) in countries who screw us on oil prices and use the money to buy overpriced gold as a hedge. This is probably not a sound economic calculation but the price of gold is somewhat more price elastic than many other commodities.

 

During the OPEC oil squeeze in the late 70's, gold hit $500/ounce. Gas was about $1.50/gal., making gold worth $1243. now at the same ratio to $500 gold during this oil sqeeze. Will OPEC loosen the noose, stay tuned because I doubt it! Our weak dollar has less leverage than in 1979.

[MikeKing]

i hope it goes down to 300 again so i can make up for my stupid a)) mistake of not buying it at that price

same for silver when it was under $3 an ounce

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

The "Shrub" administration has mired us so deep in debt and war expenses that we can not see economic daylight. He has given away the store in ill advised tax cuts, transferring it to the middle class as AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) for two working adults. Say what you may about Bill Clinton's morals but he was the only President who understood Alan Greenspan's economic policy. Bush certainly didn't.

[World Colonial]

OPEC's power is overrated. They are influential but not what people generally believe them to be. Same for the oil majors. If this were not the case, then oil would never have fallen to $10 in the last decade.

[Oldtrader3]

Oil was $21/bbl in 2001 when Bush took office. Aside from Prudhoe Bay drying up and increased Indian and Chinese demand, worldwide supply hasn't changed much. Anacortes refinery in Washington produces over 20% of the U.S. gasoline supply, yet Washington residents are paying the about highest prices in the continental U.S. I live 25 miles from Anacortes but anywhere in Washington, gas prices are cheaper than here in Blaine. The oil companies are bleeding us dry here because we are on the Canadian border and the oil companies have to gouge Canadians (and us) buying gas locally.

[MBA101]

The "Shrub" administration has mired us so deep in debt and war expenses that we can not see economic daylight. He has given away the store in ill advised tax cuts, transferring it to the middle class as AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) for two working adults. Say what you may about Bill Clinton's morals but he was the only President who understood Alan Greenspan's economic policy. Bush certainly didn't.

 

Are you saying that the 3 TRILLION in taxes that the government is stealing from us and mismanaging is not enough? When Bush cut taxes, revenue to the treasury went UP.

 

What we have here is the government trying to do more than it understands how to handle.

 

Cut taxes to the point where the government only gets about 1 trillion in revenue and force the government out of the private sector as much as possible and watch this economy boom and the dollar strengthen to new heights. Never will happen though because of power greedy liberal politicians.

[gmarguli]

In 1945 a loaf of bread cost 9c and a gallon of milk 62c. Today that loaf costs $3, but the price of milk is kept artificially low at $4/gal by our current President to help the poor instead of it's true value of $20.67.

 

In 1940 a stamp cost 3c and a car $800. Today that stamp costs 41c, but we're being gouged by the car companies as they charge nowhere near $10,933. Clearly the auto makers are making above market prices and should be taxed on their windfall. I bet the President and his cronies own auto stocks.

 

Wow, I really like reading and making all these meaningless comparisons without taking common sense and outside factors into account and then attributing them to current politics.

 

BTW, gold has been on an amazing bull run of over 200 years. In 1800 it was $19.39/oz, but today it is $876/oz.

[jtryka]

Gold hasn't gone anywhere over 200 years, the dollar has just tanked. That said, I think 800 paper dollars for an ounce of gold might be the low over the next few years.

[WoodenJefferson]

They way the economy is heading, I can see the Feds stepping in once again to regulate the prices of not only gold, but other precious metals as well.

 

Orwell's 1984

[MikeInFL]

Will the US dollar come back up over the next five years?

 

I suspect this question is just as likely to predict gold as the question posed by the OP.

[Oldtrader3]

The president and his cronies (read Cheney, et al) own oil production and oil field equipment stocks. Cheney gets $750,000. per year retirement benefits from Halliburton. No wonder they can't do much about oil prices, duh(!), as my daughter would say. Oh well, tomorrow will be the first of May, eight months, twenty days and counting until the Bush Administration becomes history! Bush's legacy will bankrupt my little grandchildren who will be paying taxes for interest on this National Debt. Inflation may be their only salvation.

[EZ_E]

Cut taxes to the point where the government only gets about 1 trillion in revenue and force the government out of the private sector as much as possible and watch this economy boom and the dollar strengthen to new heights. Never will happen though because of power greedy liberal politicians.

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Charlie, blaming Bush 100% for the state of our economy is like when I got flamed for saying that Reagan, like the CO of a ship, was/is responsible for tripling our national debt during his administration.

[EZ_E]

In 1945 a loaf of bread cost 9c and a gallon of milk 62c. Today that loaf costs $3, but the price of milk is kept artificially low at $4/gal by our current President to help the poor instead of it's true value of $20.67.

 

In 1940 a stamp cost 3c and a car $800. Today that stamp costs 41c, but we're being gouged by the car companies as they charge nowhere near $10,933. Clearly the auto makers are making above market prices and should be taxed on their windfall. I bet the President and his cronies own auto stocks.

 

Excellent post.

[Houston Investor]

Its not going down - its going up.

[MikeKing]

$700

[Oldtrader3]

Industrial uses of gold and silver are increasing with the electronics industrial growth of India and China. These countries can not scavenge enough precious metals from CRT's, electronic circuit boards, et cetera to cover their industrial uses. Plus, platinum is increasingly being replaced in catalytic converters by newly designed converters that use silver instead. Platinum is (3) times more scarce than gold but it's price will fall with lower demand and as gold and silver replace platinum's industrial uses.

 

Silver chlorides are now being used for new techniques of infection control in a medical treatment where pathogens are becoming more antibiotic resistant (i.e. Staph. Aureus). Silver chlorides will be used to kill these resistant pathogens on any tissues that they can effectively treat. They are even using silver in clothing now to make outerwear garments more heat reflective. All these new industrial uses for silver will increase demand greatly past levels of silver smeltering and refining.

 

Hecla Mines is the only U.S. company mining more than 5MM ounces of silver in the U.S. Other offshore silver production is steady state with no new large deposits being found, plus no more U.S. silver reserves, the price of silver will increase steadily for the foreseeable future. Twenty dollar silver pricing is only a start. Gold and silver will continue to replace platinum, rhodium and palladium uses because these white, ductile metals are in short supply.

 

Gold also is still considered an inflation hedge in most developing nations of the world. In much of India, gold is the only property that women can own. These trends will continue until a new President takes measures to slow the hemorage of excessive government spending that weakens the dollar. I expect also that whoever the new President is, that he/she will take measures to curb the balance of payments, trade hemorage to China for shoddy and sometimes dangerous goods. Maybe curbing Most Favored Nation trade status and the intransience of China's leadership on floating the Yuan against major currencies will catch up with China soon.

 

In the meantime, people will hoard gold keeping the price high and silver will soon be over $20./ounce again to stay. I certainly am tired of not being able to find decent quality tools, hardware, nails, screws or even jewelry that is not made of pot metal (zinc or sometimes lead contaminated castings). I would pay more for U.S. made goods but they are not even available at stores like Loew's or True Value Hardware.

[Houston Investor]

I see gold reaching $3000 in the not too distant future.

 

Our economy is stumbling, our country is being over-run by illegals while corrupt corporations and politicians squabble over amnesty for them, we continue to support the UN, and we are about to elect a president (Obama) who will wind up being the Chamberlin of our time. Not to mention that China is about to overtake the USA economically and eventually militarily. Remember studying the history of the Nazi occupation of Holland? What country is bigger than the USA in population as Nazi Germany was bigger than Holland? Answer - China.

 

I don't think Cali will fall in the sea, it wimply will just go back to Mexico.

[Oldtrader3]

I agree with Jeff, plus all my history with gold and dollar futures, tea leaf reading, I don't see the dollar strengthening below $800/ounce gold anytime soon.

[thehumantorch]

I love the U.S. but think you guys are in trouble. Record government and consumer debt, huge deficit in trade, oil prices going through the roof, the mortgage problems. Gold compared to U.S. paper $$, gold going up U.S. $$ way down.