gold closed today monday at $382.2 on the COMEX

[michael]

when do you think gold will hit the 400 mark?

 

october/nov dec?? or not until next year if ever??

 

for me i see gold at a strong 400 before the end of the year

 

michael

[crito]

The mining company stocks, like Newmont, were hitting 52-week highs today too. Looks good for you and bad for my prediction it wouldn't break $400.

 

[truthteller]

Gold will not reach $400 this year. I plan to sell my 20 metric tonnes tomorrow.

 

 

TRUTH

[Dermott]

I only wish I had 20 metric tonnes to sell!

[jtryka]

I am sure many central banks wish they had waited to sell their many tonnes of gold until now, rather than the sub-$300 prices they actually received from 1999-2001. I said before, and I still believe that gold will trade above $400 for much of next year, with a chance of reaching $500 sometime in 2004.

[Dermott]

If the metals market takes off, we're in for a big time in the coin business... considering that the collector coins are already giving some bigtime increases in value, have the spot prices go up as well and the market's going to go insane... of course then the only question becomes... what gives first... what segment tanks first?

 

While if I had the financial ability, I WOULD buy 20 tons of gold, I would definately be picky about what pieces I picked up. I've seen good and I've seen some downright ugly pieces from the same series... and I'd hate to be stuck with junk gold should another big drop occur.

 

And I have to say, the new job is giving me a good first hand look at the differences (all across the board, not just in gold) between good solid pieces and what will turn into a grand dissappointment.

[truthteller]

Matt,

 

You are 100% correct. The coin market would boom, for a while. However, the rise in slabbed US gold often sucks money from the rest of the coin market after a given time span. Then, when gold pulls back, often there is a lag time before the money is recirculated into other parts of the coin market.

 

TRUTH

[jtryka]

I would certainly agree with Dermott. There are a lot of undervalued and overlooked coins out there. I think I own maybe 2 bullion coins that were gifts, other than an old 50 peso. Most of my gold is in the form of double eagles, and specific to Saints, I would avoid the common date P-mints, and opt instead for the 14-S or 15-S, which can be had for little premium in MS-63 to MS-65. One of my favorites right now is the 16-S, which is similar to the 14-S and 15-S in price, but is much more difficult to locate, especially above MS-63. These are truly overlooked and undervalued in my opinion. In the same way, I like many of the lower mintage Libs, like the 1880, 1889 and 1890, which often sell at the same price as their far more common counterparts. In the same way, everyone focuses on the 1902 and 1905 as the keys to the 20th century set, but the 1906 is also scarce and demands very little premium in MS grades. Just my opinion though.

[michael]

all great responses

 

michael

[cladking]

I suspect that the big shorts in these markets started unwinding their positions some months ago due to the huge danger of a market rise. This market has been manipulated for years and will now seek its level. It may take sometime to get there but I think it's headed to the 550 level in the shorter term before a significant correction and then it will depend on events in the future. The possibility of sharply higher prices is real. Gold is a speculation though and should not be considered an investment.

[gmarguli]

If the metals market takes off, we're in for a big time in the coin business... considering that the collector coins are already giving some bigtime increases in value, have the spot prices go up as well and the market's going to go insane... of course then the only question becomes... what gives first... what segment tanks first?

 

It's mainly the junk and generic gold coins that move up when gold moves up. The metal content of most coins has very little to do with their value.

 

 

While if I had the financial ability, I WOULD buy 20 tons of gold, I would definately be picky about what pieces I picked up. I've seen good and I've seen some downright ugly pieces from the same series... and I'd hate to be stuck with junk gold should another big drop occur.

 

How about buying some futures contracts?

[michael]

for me

 

with some of the last metaL MOVEments of the past as a preception thing and a psycholoigocal thing it pushed numismatic cpoins higher as many dealers made money selling more bullion coins other gold coins to the public and with rising markets and demand the dealers made so much they then bought numismatic and recommended nimismatic coins to many new gold coin buyers!!

 

the public got excited and just pushed again numismatic coins higher

 

which might happen again?

 

 

michael