World Colonial

DUPLICATE

yes, that's the one. PL not proof.

The only Morgan dollars which are actually rare as a date/MM are branch mint proofs. Otherwise, as VAMs, in grade or PL/DPL/DMPL. Without even looking, I know I can literally complete the entire proof series by date tomorrow or even on eBay right now. Probably buy each one up to a PR-65. I don't remember the mintages for all offhand but recall from about 600 to slightly over 1000. Probably between 300 to 500 for each date (at minimum) remain. When I have looked in the Heritage archives, seems each one sells about 10/year and I'd guess at least 10% of the survivors (around 30-50) of each date sell every year somewhere. The 93-S in MS, yes it's somewhat harder to buy. Not sure I can find one all the time but it still can almost certainly be bought in a "few" months or slightly longer at most. (Sooner with the right dealer connections.) The rest in MS would only be "difficult" when applying very narrow criteria, like the 86-O in 65 or 66 (three or four combined last I checked) while over 300 are recorded in the combined pop to my recollection (some duplicates) in MS-64.

Yes, and that was "low", the lowest I remember for 1oz back to March 2020. It's somewhat better for larger bars. Gold has been in the $100 range for 1oz to my recollection, somewhat more per the prior post. Definitely not less. Let's face it, physical metal liquidity has declined substantially since COVID hit. It's the best explanation fitting the data. The metals are supposed to be liquid but aren't, relatively. And to anticipate any reply, any one of us can sell plenty of other assets (including many coins owned by member here and PCGS) for a comparable spread to "market value". It's easy enough to do - fast - if the price is reduced enough. As one example, right now, unless you own a complete dump or it's in a place no one wants to live, housing has a better spread than silver. If discounted, won't take long to sell either About the only reason it takes longer to sell now is presumably title insurance. You can waive the inspection and pay cash.

In the past at least, to my recollection the Perth Mint (parent company, not the marketing arm which most know) did not charge a mark-up for unfabricated metal which had to be stored with them. It wasn't stated, but my assumption was/is that the buyer is actually providing inventory financing. So the buyer owns it but since it's stored with them and unallocated, they use it until sold or delivery in coin form. This was years before COVID but back then, the premiums were still stupidly high.

The 1895 is a proof but it's not rare either. It's not rare compared to other contemporary proofs and anyone can buy it any day of the week. Popularity is independent of rarity. That's demand. I believe Coin Facts estimates between 50-60 MS 93-S. It's rare by US standards but not otherwise. There are a huge number of coins with similar or lower number, including probably most US dated earlier than this coin. There must be over 250,000 coins ever made, at minimum: date, denomination, mint mark, design, origin. Practically all have varieties. I'd guess that a Judd R-5 with 31-75 survivors is the norm with predominantly US and European coinage as outliers, mostly from 1850's onward. So at least several million die varieties where the vast majority are probably rare by most US collectors' definition. Demand may explain why a coin is more or less available and easier or more difficult to buy given the same approximate survival, but that's almost always due to price. The reason I provided my prior comments is that you seem somewhat mystified by the current market value of this coin. Is it really underpriced given what it actually is as a collectible and what I am telling you? It's not scarce, anyone can buy it except in the (near) highest grades at any time, and there are plenty of other coins which most collectors consider a lot more interesting. I'd call it one of the most overpriced coins on the planet and not relatively cheap even compared to other comparably priced US coins either. I hold the same opinion for every single one of the common most widely collected US key dates. I expect most if not every single one of these coins to be (big) proportional financial losers in the coming decades. Outlier prices due to prior communication limitations which remain completely detached from the collectible merits. It won't matter to most reading my post (absent "unexpected" economic changes) but take a look at the long term price history of Lincoln key date cents. That's what happened to every one I checked except the 55DDO, adjusted for price changes.

I mostly check golddealer.com. Lowest spread I saw was about $4.50 between "bid" and "ask", but wasn't 2021 ASE.

Last time I checked, silver spreads were still awful. Not as bad as earlier post-COVID but still higher than I recall previously for a long time. By a long time, probably excluding when spot was below $5 or near it. Someone has got to be a die hard bull to be willing to immediately accept a 20%+ "paper" loss out of the gate.

None of the coins you have listed are rare, though US collecting uses qualifiers such as TPG label, CAC sticker, and specialization in its definition of "rarity" and "scarcity". All Morgan dollars are common because the coins did not circulate as widely as lower denominations ($1 was a lot of money for most people at the time), the mintages were not low (no, 100,000 for the 1893-S is not "low"), and a large number were stored for decades by the government. A coin like the 42/41 dime isn't really "fairly rare". It's a die variety which happens to have high demand due to inclusion in price guides, TPG registry sets, and albums. Compared to other die varieties generally even from comparably dated US coinage, it isn't scarce. Comparing it to generic dates isn't an equivalent comparison. Generically, coins are relatively rare or scarce due to the mintage and the number of (roughly) contemporary collectors who saved it. There are (and were) a large number of US and European collectors, so these coins tend to be more common. Quality of survival is more of a random event as in the past, what passes as one or multiple point increments in TPG labels wasn't usually (if at all) important. Similar idea at one point for mint marks and specialization.

Only in pictures but never directly.

The 1966-1982 bear market in US stocks (measured by prices changes) ended at or around August 13, 1982 at 777. This was also the approximate start of current financialization era. I date the start of the current mania to either April 20, 1994 or November, 1994 when the Dow hit 3570 and (around) 3675. This was the start of the 90's mania which initially peaked in January/March 2000 and has yet to end. A total detachment from financial and economic reality where all major asset classes rotated through over valuation leading to where we are now with the greatest worldwide asset mania of all time and the loosest global aggregate lending conditions, ever. The hangover from this excess is yet to come. Recently, I had the "audacity" to write similar comments to those I have previously written here on the PCGS forum. I haven't checked back since my last post but it wasn't favorably received. As for diamonds, I have a "how to investment guide" from the early 80's, somewhere. My recollection on the price of blue DD flawless is similar to yours, if it's the same stone.

The dot.com bubble effectively never ended. The 2000-2003 bear market never even came close to correcting the excesses of the time which were still the greatest in history even then. Then it got bigger leading up to the GFC where these excesses were never even close to being corrected either. Now, here we are about 14 years later with an even greater mania. It's all the same mania dating at minimum to 1999.

Late to this thread and didn't read all the posts but yours is as good as any to add my thoughts. There is no practical difference between a national currency cashless society and crypto currency. Only in the issuer. So if anyone thinks a cashless society is so great, they might be for it. I'll pass on that once in a lifetime opportunity. The obsession with crypto currency (exactly what it is) is simply another aspect of the existing asset, credit and debt mania. The one we are in now and have been since at least 1999. It's lasted so long, many or most people think it's "normal". That's where ridiculous ideas such as "new normal" and that there really is something for nothing originate. I am in favor of currency competition but underestimated how volatile it will be. No currency which fluctuates so radically as of any of the most widely (and presumably all) traded crypto currencies will ever be used as a payment method at any meaningful scale. I also agree that all governments with any incentive to protect their currency monopoly (all of the largest economies) won't allow any serious challengers. The only way any crypto currency not issued by the US government is going to replace the USD is if the government loses it's power of compulsion over money. The only way I can see that happening is if the US as we know it ceases to exist.

A mintage of 999 or anywhere near it isn't remotely low for something like that.

Total pass for me. Another totally uninteresting trinket passing as a coin. Far better uses for $286.

I live in ATL but can't stand either team. I also think both are head and shoulders above all others, unfortunately. Had a recent discussion last week with a co-worker who is a UGA fan. I told him I thought UGA would save some surprises for the championship game, assuming both were undefeated. Now with Alabama losing, I'd go for the "knockout punch" in the SEC title game to eliminate them from the CFP. Florida is the only team left on the UGA schedule with what I consider a realistic chance to beat them, I don't think they will. and don't believe any other team they will face can match up against them either.

I presume a few coins I really wanted to buy might have been available at shows I did not attend which was most. However, most of my primary set has come from auctions supplemented by a few coins from dealers and eBay. It's come to the point now where my only option will likely be approaching dealers to find it for me. This year, I have bought one coin and was outbid on two. Nothing else showed up which I wanted to buy. The reason I have arrived at my current state is a combination of factors. Most coins don't interest me anymore. Even if it did, I'm not paying current prices which I deem excessive for such ordinary material and this applies to both US and non-US. Selling is also less predictable (in my recent experience) than it used to be. Years ago, I could have put together a high quality decent sized secondary collection on a modest budget (high four figures to maybe slightly over $10k) on coins I used to buy or others I might have bought. No longer. In another thread, I gave an example of a coin I bought in 1998 for $45. More recently, Stacks sold four from slight over $700 to $900. Not happened to everything but nicer quality (this was MS-64) is more than I am willing to pay. I'm not paying this type of price for what I describe as undistinguished mediocrity.

It's partly a result of the financialization of the hobby. But to your second point, if I insisted on buying my coins in person, I would not be collecting. I'm never buying the coins most collectors do and those I want to buy aren't available like that.

I think of a European FDC as MS-66 or better but have never bought a coin graded as one. A British or Spanish EF is probably a US (mid) AU but not consistent in my experience either. In another thread, I mentioned a 1607 or 1683 Spanish coin graded by Calico as EBC+ which NGC graded MS-65. I bought one from Calico which graded MS-63. I actually thought it might grade higher but it has a small dark spot. It also looks to have high point wear ("cabinet friction") which US grading seems to ignore. It's still much nicer than the vast majority of the MS coins for this type I have seen. Very good strike and very nice color. Luster might not be quite good enough for a higher grade though.

Not sure there are grading standards (of any kind) outside of some European countries and UK/Commonwealth countries. US collectors through the TPG have imposed the Sheldon scale on world coinage, even when it doesn't make any sense. Where there are grading standards, I don't recall seeing it by series as with US coinage. The only foreign guide I own (equivalent to the Red Book) is for South Africa. No grading standards in there. Those I have seen in auction catalogs describe the grading scale, but not the application. In the example from the OP, I'd never consider an MS-63 equivalent to FDC.

The price variances are actually much bigger for common coins. Look at the coins with the highest collector preference. You'll see that the price spreads are much lower or the lowest. Examples of really common coins with inflated prices are recent sales of "top pop" Mercury dimes and that Franklin half. I can't remember the dates but someone else here might. Conversely, coins like the 1796 quarter have narrow spreads because it's in high demand even in the lowest grades or a "details" holder. It's a coin that's always had strong demand. It didn't require marketing to get there.

You can improve with experience. As stated above, the most important thing is to like what you buy, regardless of the label.

Yes, except that what you describe here has little to do with actual collecting. It's the financial side. It's not interesting to the collector who predominantly collects for recreation because it isn't recreational. It certainly has zero appeal to the non-collector. It's more like work but has become more necessary to avoid losing your shirt. Some knowledge of grading was always necessary for anyone spending "noticeable" money but the inflated price level and pricing structure makes errors potentially a lot more expensive. Unless it's treated predominantly as a consumption expense, there should no mystery why more aren't eager to spend a lot of money buying (US) coins. First, you've got to learn the grading minutia between one point MS increments, + grades, and CAC stickers. Second, try to understand and keep current with the pricing environment. Reminds me of one comment on the PCGS forum where the contributor discussed their lunch conversation with a specialist dealer about CAC. Can you imagine that conversation? It's about as interesting to most collectors and non-collectors both as watching paint dry or traffic lights change. It's a financial planning session, not collecting. Exactly If this isn't enough to attract people to collecting, then the hobby ultimately isn't competitive for the public's time and money. Otherwise, marketing and financial promotion will only maintain interest as long as the buyer at minimum gets most of their money back.

Your description is how most collectors approach collecting. The whole purpose of a hobby is recreational. This is what those who are taking the opposite position here forget or ignore. With most US collectors who spend "meaningful" amounts of money, it's my inference that their primary motive isn't knowledge for it's own sake, but to protect their "investment" so that they can obtain value for what they pay and have a higher probability of getting their money back at resale. Why would anyone expect or believe anything else? To insist on anything more is to turn collecting into work. If a prospective collector had to learn what's being implied in these sentiments, there would be far fewer coin buyers and the price level would be much lower. They would find something else to do with their time and money. There are more options than ever and it's not like there aren't any alternatives. As one example, the problem isn't that most collectors can't grade to TPG standards. It's that US "collecting" has become so financialized and the Sheldon scale is one of the primary reasons for it.

Since there are more of the AGE and the spreads have usually been lower, I presume the AGE. To the non-collector, bullion is bullion. I'm not sure if both are eligible for self directed retirement accounts but I understand no and that's probably a factor too I don't think you will find a book covering this, maybe prior articles partly. For my collecting, the #1 thing I want to know is survival rates and quality distribution. I want to know what's potentially available to add to my collection. The survey data in one of my references is useful but insufficient.