World Colonial

I'd like to know about these bubbles in other parts of the world, like Europe. No telling what is hidden (some of it in plain sight) there. It's even less evident in the TPG data.

Sounds like my step grandmother's collection I have mentioned here several times. Born in 1906, she came from an "old money" family. Never worked a day in her life to my knowledge (for pay), not even in the Great Depression. I suspect there are a lot more collections like this than most collectors think. Just because the owner dies, doesn't mean the collection will be sold. It will eventually at some point, but necessarily then. I also infer some of these collections don't even get included in the legal estate. It's passed on with no paper trail. "Old money" families have heirloom (collections) of many different types. That's partly why they are rich. They know how to manage (alternative) assets and leverage their circumstances to become wealthier. It's described in "The Millionaire Next Door" and the sequel which I can infer you might have read, multi-generational wealth building. Same concept for graded vs. ungraded. If NGC and PCGS have only graded 14 (or near it) 1802 half dimes whereas the number documented to exist almost a century ago was 35-40, we can be sure the TPG population data is nowhere complete for most coins.

It doesn't have to be on the label. It can be on the webpage linked to the certification verification lookup. Plenty of room there. Additionally, for some coins, this can be resolved by discontinuing the use of the 70-point Sheldon scale in favor of the Ancients 5-pt scale using strike and surfaces. I wouldn't change it for US Mint coins but would for my series (Spanish colonial pillars) and others like it. Maybe for some US colonial and Territorial golds too.

Yes, I have done this too. My expectations were a lot more accurate with South African coinage than now with pillars. I intermittently disagree with the grade too, even after the coin is returned.

Big difference between the type of inventory in a high rent district (like NYC) versus most of the US. NYC dealer can never stay in business selling what most US collectors buy. There isn't enough money in it. I'd assume in recent decades practically every coin shop deals in physical silver and most or at least a high proportion physical gold, of some sort. Due to what I collect, I haven't been in a coin shop since late 2016 and that was to sell bullion. The dealer was Larry Jackson (a PNG dealer) and to my recollection, he had a sign stating his coin inventory was viewable by appointment only, probably as a security precaution. Prior to that, in 2011 when i lived in PHX but also to sell "junk" silver. I'd describe this place as a traditional shop, but I didn't even bother to look around. I was transitioning from collecting South Africa and asked if they had any. His reply was to check back to see if someone brought it in. I asked if it had ever happened, and he said "no". Duh! Dumb question in retrospect since I already knew the answer.

You've only mentioned half cents to my recollection. I wouldn't expect the typical coin shop to have quality half cents of any date on any regular basis. Part of it is the popularity (what I describe as collector preference), but mostly, it's what @Zebo wrote above my post. On the PCGS forum, one contributor dealer has estimated that 80% don't buy coins above $300. This seems "ballpark" accurate to me. They are mostly buying 20th century to date coins in this price range, sometimes higher quality but mostly not. Also circulated 19th century US, some world, and common high grade Morgan dollars. If you have one or more "side interests", depending upon what it is, I can see a typical coin shop having that. I already know in advance that no coin shop will ever have anything in my primary collection I'd ever want to buy, if they have anything of any quality at all. It's about as probable as winning the lottery. Very unlikely for one of my "side collections" and still unlikely for the second.

Not sure about the Saints, but otherwise agree with your post.

I infer it's not isolated to coin dealers, but small business generally. Some bigger ones too.

Only 50%?

Good choice. The "young head" portrait is one of my all-time favorites.

Me either, to a point, though I do limit my collection value as a pct. of my assets. There are two reasons I'm usually not willing to lose a "noticeable" proportion of my purchase price. The first one is the life effort required to save the money where I'm not about to throw away my time because I can't get it back. It's still mostly wage income to me, not portfolio passive income requiring limited or no effort. The second is that I just do not like most coins enough to lose money on it anymore. The coins aren't interesting enough and I do not want to own it that badly.

I met him at the NGC table at coin shows a few times but did not know him. Still sad for someone of his age.

Yes, but from your posts, you have a much bigger collecting budget than I do and most collectors. When it comes to submitting and grading fees, I'm a utilitarian. It isn't only economics, but that anything I spend on grading fees means I have less to spend on coins. I submit infrequently now, maybe every year or two. Right now, I have two submissions to send in totaling nine coins. One economy and a second standard including NCS conservation. Probably something like $300-$400 including postage. I don't have a fixed budget since I usually buy coins in my primary series as it becomes available. Last year, I spent $8000 gross less $3000 sales. (Six coins with all but one already graded.) That's on the high side for me. You can see from my description that submitting more often would eat up a substantial part of my budget and most collectors won't do that because their coin budget is primarily for coins, not grading fees or other non-coin expenditures.

What's the price range for the coins you submit? Mine are usually in the world economy tier where the cut-off is $300. I'll still submit my pillar purchases if it's a scarce/rare date for authentication and any better grade I don't already have in a holder. Have no plans to submit anything else and while it's not the primary reason, I don't buy other coins I previously might have in the past. Up to 2006, I bought a lot of lower priced coins which I sold that year, recouping my cost. Now with the higher eBay fees and lack of true auctions, no way I'm tying up mid-four figures or more (which is easy to do now at the higher prices) for coins I don't really want that badly and can't get my money back either. I have no direct evidence of it, but the higher fees either have or presumably will reduce the marketability of most lower priced currently ungraded coins.

I don't know much about token and medal prices, other than the price level is a lot lower (generically) versus coins. I first submitted in 2005 when economy tier was $15 less a 10% discount with a Collectors Society membership. Now It's $23, I think. World Standard was $27 less the same 10% discount. Now I think it's $38. New fees are with no discount. The problem for the TPG business model is that it requires a perpetually rising collectible price level which doesn't concurrently price out its customers. The TPG's operating expenses also continually increase from general inflation, so they have to increase their fees. Prices for many coins have increased noticeably in the last three years, but the fee increases since 2005 have made it uneconomical to submit many coins, measured by the improved marketability. It's not worth spending as a hobby expense for most collectors either. Probably something like $200 minimum "all-in" for the economy tier minimum five coin submission. Somewhat less for modern. This thread is about TPG fees, but the same concept applies to auction companies and dealer overhead. In your position, I would probably collect fewer but more expensive items if I wanted it graded.

Me either.

Using the TPG population data, it's about 1% of NGC's submission volume. Does PCGS have a surcharge? I haven't checked. I was never a big submitter, total of a few hundred (maybe up to 500, have not counted) since my first one. I also no longer submit the types of coins I did in the past due to the fee increases while concurrently no longer buying these coins either, for other reasons.

At a major low, most people are worried about losing money, as opposed to the mostly FOMO which has existed in different asset classes over the last 20+ years. I bought some gold cheap, but not much. Same reason plus I didn't have the funds. One was the Australia $200 commemoratives under the assumption it wouldn't be worth less than FV. Not sure these were legal tender though. Bought 10 for about $140 each, about melt and same as the FX rate. I also bought an 1858 ANACS AU-58 France 100F for $410, which was slightly more than melt. All since sold.

Reading this thread reminds me of the saying "Form over substance". It's a hobby, not the writing of a doctoral thesis or academic paper.

My thoughts too. It's a really common coin even in this grade. There is no reason to be in a hurry to buy this type of coin.

That's a really nice 1946 for melt. I don't collect the series but could be persuaded to take it up at that price.

To answer one of the OP questions, agree with others that it's not unusual for the same coin to reappear at auction in close proximity. As to why it happened on this coin, it must be the toning and maybe the sticker, if the prior buyer bought it "cheap", as I don't know where it sold or the price. Heritage shows the last sale closest to this coin (a toned MS-66+ CAC) selling for $1980 in 7/19 whereas all more recent sales (without one or more of these three attributes) sell for about 15% to 25%. There is also a sale of an untoned MS-66+ in 3/19 for $3600 when the counts were noticeably lower. (The MS-67 count is 3 and 1. So maybe a potential upgrade?) As an MS-66, PCGS now shows 99 grading events while NGC records 43. As an MS-66+, PCGS shows 16 and NGC 6.

Dealers market to their customer base. No reason to expect anything else. One dealer on the PCGS forum once (or a few times) mentioned that 80% of the collector base doesn't spend more than $300 on a single coin. I think that's a good estimate, as it's consistent with the budget section at large regional and national shows or at least was in 2020 (last one I attended). It's more than that. It's that they almost certainly don't ever have customers for the majority of US type, like the gold dollar example but probably would have one for the FE cent. It's either too expensive for their customers or they have no interest in it. Even more so for world and ancient, as the typical collector wouldn't even recognize these coins. My primary dealers in ATL back in the late 70's were probably typical. Neither generally had coins valued maybe over $100 and it was all US, except for "junk bin" stuff. If I wanted to see a wider variety of US type, had to go to World Numismatics. I don't remember all the specifics, but they had coins like Bust dollars and a 1795 FH half, though only circulated ("original" looking) coins. The owner did tell me once he had a customer who spent $300/week which was big money for a collector at the time, so he could probably find most US coinage if someone wanted it. He didn't sell any non-US. Of the 19 dealers on the list from my last post, I'd guess Larry Jackson (a PNG dealer) is the only one who offers a wide variety, but still US only. Back in 2004 or so, I took a trip to Helen, GA (a tourist town) and there was a coin shop there that carried expensive stuff. I thought it very unusual for a place like that. One I remember was a "gem looking" seated dollar (proof I think). I don't know if he is around anymore.

The only local coin show I ever went to is included in the link below, back in 1991 or 1992. Approximately same number of dealers at the time as described in the link. I went once or twice. (Website claims 35+ but only 19 identified as attending this month.) For me now, it's not worth going, as I already know they will have nothing for sale I currently collect that I also want to buy. I'm also not paying to park and not about to take the local public transport either. For everyone else, I agree it's worth trying once. Monthly Greater Atlanta Coin Shows (atlcoin.com) I have also considered attending a meeting at the largest coin club in the metro area but never have. Could do it now but just haven't gotten around to it.

Saudi Arabia's love for soccer could cause ripple effects (cnbc.com) No, there is no conceivably comparable model which will ever apply to coins or other mass-produced collectibles, no matter how creative anyone tries to be. Direct quote from the article: “Sports investment is attractive. You won’t necessarily get a substantial return on your investment financially, given the high prices they are likely to have to go and pay for a club of that stature, but the non-financial return on investment as we’ve seen is a positive one.”