World Colonial

No, but that's one I probably should since his collection was huge. The Patrick collection is another, but I don't need the hard copy since it's all on-line.

No, I have not seen it. Hardly any catalogue of US coinage interests me anymore. Almost exclusively repetitive sales of coins I see all the time or regularly but even if actually scarce, often enough. Practically every US coin by now is in the Heritage archives, just not in a specific grade or maybe some specialization. The US coinage of most interest to me is almost never discussed on coin forums: Territorial gold, the few CSA, and a relatively low number of colonial. I'm interested in discussing other collector's interests here, but not taking any of my time to read up on it. The primary interest I'd have in this type of catalogue is due to the reason I replied to your post yesterday (historical prices) but that's more academic to me than of any practical use.

"He who sells what isn't his'n, must buy it back or go to pris'n" Attributed to Daniel Drew in the context of short selling but SBF should have taken it to heart anyway.

I believe most if not all of the coins you specifically listed most collectors (including you) will consider "rare" and if not, certainly "scarce". It's an inference only but maybe as opposed to now and recently where estimates are intentionally low, it was set too high. Or another reason is that they just didn't know due to lack of data and a less predictable sales history.

The grades weren't stated, so without this info, probably the Liberty Head gold, 1819 half eagle, and 1802 half dime are five figures. Pretty sure all the others are easily six figures, or more. 1815 half eagle almost certainly over $1MM and same for 1829. The other three maybe if MS-65 or better. I haven't checked recently.

It depends upon the TPG grade, as usual. Virtually all over a 100X increase. If the grade is high enough, over 1000X. Only exceptions I can think of offhand are the Pan-Pac set and 1802 half dime. My recollection on the 1853 half might be wrong too. I recall one of these has four known, but I might have stated the wrong one.

I commented earlier but missed this post. This is quite interesting. My understanding is that someone (I think the author of the die variety reference) identified 35-40 specific coins, in 1935 or near it. Not sure how this reconciles to the comments in this catalog. Nine known to my recollection. It's unique as a sub-type. (There is also a "with arrows" version which is scarce but not rare.) 15-20 now known to my recollection. It's a coin whose relative prominence seems to have declined substantially since I started collecting in 1975, probably due to the middle-of-the-road preference for the denomination and lower emphasis on absolute rarity. Proof only date with a recorded mintage of 20. Nine known to my recollection. It's actually more common than any other Capped Bust half proof to my knowledge but has a much higher prominence as a proof only coin. This has to be the without "arrows and rays" sub-type. The 53-O has four now known to my recollection. The worst value from your list. Assuming it's the 1879 Flowing Hair, $4 since before I became a collector must be due to inclusion in the Red Book and from it, in type sets. I consider it one of the most overrated coins in all of US numismatics. It's a common pattern.

Very late in seeing this thread but to answer the OP's question, the prices are just "made up". There is no other explanation since it's obvious that it's not feasible to base the catalog price on actual sales. The prices for South Africa in my 1998 and 2010 editions are also identical, or near it. It's also not possible to provide a market price for coins which (might) have never sold publicly or do not even exist. Examples of the first are most of the coins in my primary series, Lima and Potosi pillars. These very infrequently sell but virtually never in the listed grades (up to XF). On the latter, Krause has an entry for the 1752 Peru 4R. I'll buy as many as anyone will sell me at the catalog price, except that the mintage is recorded as 81 and there are zero confirmed. One is rumored to exist. Krause also lists 1933, 1934, and 1936 South Africa circulation strike farthings. These are also included in the local Hern/Randburg/Kaplan catalogs (their version of the Red Book) but no one on their coin forum knew anything about these coins, until NCG graded the 1936. NGC has also now graded one 1934 but still none of the 1933. There are also several Bolivian Republic coins I'm not sure exist either: 1882, 1887 and 1889 50 centavos. Norweb owned the 1887 Boliviano now in the ANS collection.

I presume by now there is a reference (a real one, not predominantly a price guide) for every US series up through State Quarters. For the series I primarily collect, the most useful data is the survey. It's not statistically representative, but it does give a reasonable indication of the relative scarcity (which I mostly knew already). For any future update, I recommended to the author to add counterfeit detection, strike quality (by date if possible), and a quality distribution of the sample. It would also help if the data included all known specimens which I don't believe it does. The information I am most interested in is, what is available to be bought to be bought so that I can complete my collection. It would also help if the books in which I have an actual interest were more available. As examples, I'd buy Fuld's Patter Coinage of Peter Getz and Bowers' 1822 half eagle if I could find it, but I cannot. But I'm not paying the potentially ridiculous secondary market prices it will likely take to buy either when I don't even collect something. One of mine purportedly sells for $400 now. I bought it for $65 in 2002 and have multiple books for this series, so wouldn't pay this even if I did not own it.

Yes, I understand. The optimal alternative is to create a (fully) indexed DB, but I wouldn't expect that. It's too manually intensive.

Yes, that's where I went. I wouldn't expect anything else but scrolling through endless pages of PDF documents is really tedious, especaiially when you get to the end and find nothing.

It's a function of finite resources. For 99%+, if they spend their limited budget buying a set of Virginia half penny varieties, they have less for everything else. I used to buy a wider range than I do now, until I accepted that I don't have enough money to collect random coins of temporary interest. I'm trying to get rid of these coins I already own now, not add more of it. Doing it also results in noticeable "slippage" which means I can buy fewer of the coins I really want later. Ultimately, it comes down to what kind of collection someone wants for their budget. I'd never do this because there are many other coins which I consider far more interesting and distinctive available for the same money.

I've only looked through the auction catalog archive to attempt to identify prior sales in my primary interest. It's a good resource for those who collect something that is more widely collected. I didn't find much of anything and yes, there are plenty of catalogues in NNP, though of the few firms who sell my series, only Stacks (legacy firm, not the current one) is included.

I've mentioned my step grandmother's collection which I viewed once in December 1975. She had several hundred and gave me a few, though I have no idea which varieties she owned. My two or three, grading in the vicinity of VG, were the more common Red Book variety. I've seen variety collections of other colonial coinage, like Pine Tree shillings and Fugio cents. Challenging? Presumably Interesting? I can only think of a few things in coin collecting more boring than collecting so many of the same coin with such minor variations. I can think of thousands of coins (literally) I'd rather own than 23 of the same one. I've looked at the prices in higher grades (MS) on occasion and it's one I could conceivably (though unlikely) buy at some point.

Not sure about 40%, maybe. Population counts are overly concentrated in a relatively low number of dates where it's marginal to resubmit. 1904 alone accounts for an outsized proportion. I doubt very many there. I'm confident you are right here. The more common dates are so common, the accuracy of the population counts doesn't really matter. It matters to the "key" and "semi-key" dates, even though most of these shouldn't be that hard to buy either. Once a population gets around 100 for a coin in this price range, it's more about having the money and whether the buyer can find one meeting their narrow criteria.

I think you are right for the series as a whole. My guess is that many collectors may limit it to Type 3 as it's a lot more feasible. Edit: Actually, looking at the population reports, Type 2s might be easier. The 70-CC looks to be the only one to be very scarce while there are more dates for Type 3s.

Slowly rising is probably better from the standpoint of most collectors. That's my guess. Garrett isn't anywhere near the worst. Still, those who agree with him are more interested in maximizing prices and profits because it's a business to them first, not a hobby. Would I like it if the value of coin collection fell in half? I'm not selling my primary series (by choice) and it probably would mean fewer coins are available versus more. I'd actually consider other coins as side collections (not my primary interest), if the prices were more "reasonable". There are too many coins and series which are not "reasonably" priced anymore (not just US) because too much of the price is based upon the holder label. I'm not just referring to 30, 40, or 50 years either. I'm referring to 20 years or less. I'm not spending thousands, $10K, $20K or more on a series or a bunch of "one offs" which collectively used to sell for (a lot) less because the coins aren't remotely interesting enough. Yes, I agree with you, accumulate until you sell. But a small though noticeable proportion are interested in maximum appreciation all the time.

Garrett is a financial promoter first and a collector distant second. This is how he writes his articles for Coin Week, which I presume are the same ones on his site. In every article of his I have ever read he's always measuring the "health of the hobby" by the price level. If Garrett gets his wish, the traditional collector is going to get priced out of many coins they previously could afford. Yet just like forum members, I also already know he's going to claim how the "leftovers" will still supposedly be so interesting.

So, now it's still over 100X overpriced even after a 70%+ decline. Last I read, 316 PSA-10 with probably many, many more. I think ESPN airing his games when the NBA wasn't playing had something or a lot to do with it. That's probably because they weren't "hard core" fans and may not have been much of a fan at all. In the past, baseball's history was an asset which distinguished it from the other major team sports. All of the sports have changed, but at least baseball still resembles the game it used to be. Different style of the game and even different rules for the others. It's debatable how many of the "old time" baseball players would be good enough to play now. However, go back even a few decades from 1977 when I started watching and not even one NFL player would have a moonshots chance in you know what of making any team. NBA maybe somewhat better but I doubt it. I don't think most of the NFL players from the late 70's could play their own positions now or recently. Either too slow or too small. I read baseball history as a young fan. I tried reading NFL but had no interest. Never was interested in the others.

I agree. It's the most logical explanation how he got bail at all. Still, if he swindled his customers to this extent, wouldn't surprise me if does the same thing to his parents, if he can find a way to get out of the country again.

I haven't read anything indicating the parents own a $250MM home but maybe I missed it. My understanding is that it's just part of the collateral. The CNBC article I read didn't indicate where the money came from though it did mention the parent's house. Being supposedly down to his last $100K, I'm curious to know where he could have legitimately got this amount, if the charges are valid. I'm assuming it's actually customer funds (again) which he is legally able to use under the presumption of innocence.

Financially (key word here) given what most collectors buy, it doesn't make sense to upgrade because of the supply. It's a virtually guaranteed way to lose money that could have been spent on further reaching the goal. Sometimes, maybe it makes sense to do this if you're collecting into a fast rising market and waiting will end up costing you more. This probably happened in the 70's (based upon across the board price increases) and might be happening now for mid-priced to more expensive coins. I doubt it's happening for cheaper coins, but this is an inference on my part only. Personally, I just buy what is available when it comes available, if it meets my minimum quality criteria and I'm ok with the price. I don't have the option of choosing or waiting. I own duplicates but I just keep it, as there is almost never anything else I'd rather own instead.

Exzcept that I keep hearing it really is (mostly) about collecting. It's a new "sophistication" that the financialization era buyer has which those uniformed novices lacked in the past. Same thing for those clueless collectors outside the US now.

Except that hardly any of these coins are actually special. Creating a pretense of "rarity" and "distinction" through marketing and pricing it as an "investment" doesn't equate to special. It's a participation trophy just for showing up. There is nothing wrong with collecting common, ordinary coins. There aren't actually that many (proportionately) rare, distinctive coins and no reason to expect there would or should be. I know some here are familiar with what I am talking about, but if you want to get an idea how coins are perceived without this exaggeration, take a look at relative prices prior to the 70's or to a lesser extent, outside the US now. Most are still common (like the most widely collected 20th century key dates) and easier to buy due to the internet but were still viewed as having actual distinction.

I've bought a few of those as well. Last one that i remember was graded EBC+ (XF+) from a Spanish auction which is an NGC MS-63 holder. the color differs slightly on the high points (rub or fiction?) which is probably why the auction firm described it as they did. Bought a few from London Coins about 15 years that were similar. In my small sample size though, I haven't seen much consistency elsewhere either.