olympicsos

On 2/18/2023 at 10:49 PM, VKurtB said:

We may never know. This is tremendously tough data to tease out. I suspect it’s higher than most “dealers” will let themselves believe. 

At the same time ATB Quarters, Presidential Dollars and other modern circulating series failed to take off the way state quarters did. Even now state quarters aren’t as popular as they were from 1999 to about 2005. I occasionally get uncirculated state quarters in change, suggesting some holders of bags or rolls are dumping them in circulation. 

On 2/18/2023 at 9:43 PM, World Colonial said:

Yes, I agree with this comment.  There were never three to four million collector buyers at peak sales.  Many buying multiple sets and many potentially bought by non-collectors too.

You could make the same comment about the 95-W ASE.  A few exceptions don't negate what I wrote.

Many bought by market makers because we were a more hobby dependent society before the advent of smartphones and even video games. 

On 2/18/2023 at 1:41 AM, World Colonial said:

The increasing prices are on track to eliminate more than just low budget collectors.  Mintage for the 2022 clad set is down 90% from the peak decades ago.  Silver is down close to 70%, I think.  In my prior post, I speculated world mints subsidize prices, but collectors only care about the issue price and secondly for many, resale value.

The lower mintages in theory better support higher issue prices, but that's only true if demand remains at current levels or increases.  I don't think it will, because the sets (either clad or silver) aren't competitive longer term at current prices and supply versus alternative options.

The current business model has the potential to lead to a "death spiral" where higher prices mean lower mintages which leads to higher prices in a feedback loop.  I'm not sure what the issue price would be today at a 100,000 mintage but that's not low and I am even more confident it would be even less competitive than it is now to the remaining buyers.

How many low budget collectors really prefer moderns? 

On 2/17/2023 at 10:42 PM, World Colonial said:

I just checked the most recent US Mint sales report as of 2/13.  Yes, the 2022 proof set (both) mintage is "low", compared to prior years.  At somewhat over 400,000 (clad) and somewhat below 300,000 (silver), it's still nowhere close to actually low.

Guess it just depends upon the timeframe for someone's outlook. Longer term, I'm quite confident these mintages are far above future demand. 

I remember when the 2004 proof set was very expensive and then the value collapsed. Still we are seeing 1950s mintage levels with room for even less to be made. At what point will the US Mint simply discontinue or combine the annual core products? 

On 2/17/2023 at 6:15 AM, World Colonial said:

The new Morgan and Peace dollar might be an exception, though I doubt for long if it's an on-going series.  The 2021 prices weren't low for such common coins.  Even your reduced mintages potentially rely on a noticeable proportion of speculative or financially motivated buyers.  The number of hobbyist collectors who own individual dates of real Morgan and Peace dollars potential isn't that much larger.

It's the cost structure.  I don't think the US Mint should be in the business of subsidizing collectible coinage.  Problem is perpetual currency debasement makes most of it uncompetitive at full accounting cost.

The coins simply aren't that interesting, except for speculative buying (which isn't real collecting) or as a side collection to the majority of buyers who can both afford it and don't mind spending the money.

In the past, I've guesstimated that the majority of US collectors have an annual budget of $500 or less and I think this is generous.  This is the profile for a big portion of the traditional base for proof and mint sets in the past, though not of other US Mint offerings.  If this budget is "ballpark" accurate, I don't think most of them can either afford it or are motivated to buy it.

I think the Morgan and Peace will last a while. They’re two very popular silver dollar series. If anything I think the other modern series will take a nosedive in popularity. We’re already seeing this with proof and mint sets and with each succeeding quarter program. 

Wasn’t the US Mint going to only go with the silver proof set at some point? I heard talk of that. 

On 2/9/2023 at 5:30 AM, RWB said:

Kurt is Right!

The US MInt has some of the best, highest quality design and minting equipment in the world. Their production coins, especially those sold to collectors, are consistently of lower quality artistically, AND mechanically than even the old Franklin Mint. I have one of the silver FM bicentennial 50 state medal sets. Almost all of the designs simply blow away anything the US Mint produced then, or on in the state quarter series. Artistically and mechanically there is no viable comparison that favors our national mint. I recently acquired a silver medal by Heidi Wastweet. It is not only beautiful and creative, but the manufacture cut it crisp and clean -- without losing any of its medallic character.

One persistent problem is the strong resistance of the manufacturing end to using its die cutting tools to create relief in the clarity and sharpness of 1900 work. Other world mints can do this, but I know from personal experience that the 1990s "Spaghetti Head" crew has passed it's sloppiness down to the next generation of blur and fuzz experts. All of the recent mint directors have failed to require improvement, being either too timid, too engrossed in profit centers, or too "crow-like" in distraction of shiny baubles.

The interesting part is that bullion and numismatic items aren’t even the most profitable part of the US Mint’s business. Speaking of profit centers. 

On 2/13/2023 at 1:43 AM, RWB said:

 

The pragmatic approach is to answer the question: "Which coins and paper currency best serve the present economy and monetary transactions?"

Paper currency and quarters. Maybe the US Mint should trademark the name “Quarter Factory”. 

On 2/12/2023 at 9:07 PM, numisport said:

Costs could be offset somewhat if one cent coins were eliminated. Every time I handle change I just laugh when I see pennies. 

Other currencies have coins worth less than one American cent and they’re used regularly. 

On 2/12/2023 at 9:13 PM, RWB said:

Cents and nickels should be eliminated. They serve now only as tokens for retail sales tax payment on cash, only, transactions. They can be easily replaced by automatic rounding in cash registers based on simple over/under/split changes to individual state sales tax laws. At present, I no longer see the utility of higher value coins, either. Paper works well for cash $5 and $10 purchases.

Whether that’s politically feasible is another discussion. I’ll also point out at that point if you eliminate cents and nickels and just have the dime and the Quarter, the US Mint would be more dependent on bullion and collector products. 
 

I would not eliminate the cent entirely though. One idea I’ve had kicking around is to make a collector only large cent using the 1907 unused Saint Gaudens cent design (In God We Trust and E Pluribus Unum would be on the edge). At least you could succeed in making Saint Gaudens’ designs available to those who don’t collect gold. 

On 2/12/2023 at 8:35 PM, RWB said:

Maybe---but that was 40 years later than the initial purpose. Also, the comment omitted part of GAO's response "the first time GAO has found that replacing the $1 note with a $1 coin would result in a net loss."

GAO's analysis found that replacing the $1 note with a $1 coin would likely result in a net loss to the government over 30 years. GAO found the government would incur a loss of about $611 million if notes were actively replaced and about $2.6 billion if $1 notes were replaced gradually (see figure). These simulations represent the first time GAO has found that replacing the $1 note with a $1 coin would result in a net loss to the government rather than a net benefit. GAO's estimates are based on current data and economic projections, which have changed over time. For example, the lifespan of the $1 note has more than doubled since a 2011 GAO analysis, from 3.3 years to 7.9 years, largely due to changes in note processing technology. Stakeholders generally identified few benefits from replacing $1 notes with $1 coins. Seven of 10 stakeholders GAO met with said that replacing the $1 note with a $1 coin would result in additional costs. For example, armored carriers told GAO that their transportation costs would increase because coins weigh more than notes.

Yes I should’ve mentioned the first time. But with the decline of cash use, I’m not surprised. I’d even point out that with the push for more electric vehicles, we would likely have to change the composition of all our coins made mostly of copper at some point as copper would become more expensive. 

On 9/5/2021 at 7:43 PM, RWB said:

The small dollar program is given a general overview in my book: Private Pattern and Related Pieces: International Nickel & Gould Incorporated, (2019). The coin could have succeeded if the Treasury had not insisted on bending to vending machine interests, and used a diameter that was too close to the quarter for a one-dollar coin. The technology division and outside entities warned Treasury/Mint of the consequences, and this was one of Gould's arguments in favor of titanium's distinctive weight and ability to be colored by anodization. Vending machine manufacturers wanted the lowest possible cost impact on their equipment, so the entire project was condemned to failure - and continues to fail although for somewhat different economic reasons.

In 2019 the GAO found that replacing dollar bills with dollar coins would be more costly to the government. https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-19-300

But I will say the one good gold coin design that was completely ruined for no reason was the Indian head $10. It’s a very simple clean design that has lots of potential. The headdress just kills what is otherwise a beautiful design. Not only that, that design would have a lot of political controversy today. I would love to see a Saint Gaudens Liberty Head $10 with no headdress. 

On 2/11/2023 at 2:26 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

What about it really appeals to you ?  I think the obverse has its plusses but the reverse eagle is kind of blah.  

I think the Liberty Head DE has a blah reverse and a nice clean powerful obverse.  I think the Saint-Gaudens has two powerful sides, with Liberty striding on the obverse and the eagle in flight on the reverse.

Come to think about it....the Saint eagle could be the 1st eagle that really was powerful and looked intimidating and impressive.  TR had complained specifically about the birds on many of our coins.

The obverse bust is very attractive. The obverse carries the coins with them. Yes the reverse is kind of blah, but I’d say that’s a positive. It’s not like the capped bust or seated Liberty was any better. It makes it the perfect classic design they could’ve had as the obverse on the ASE and AGE. Pairing Weinman with a new design and pairing St. Gaudens with a new design somehow ruins the ASE and AGE. The draped bust had a reverse that’s kind of blah and didn’t have inscriptions like In God We Trust that are mandated today which makes it the perfect classical liberty to co-opt for a modern bullion coin as it’s a beautiful rendition of Liberty that can be improved upon. Especially with the primitive technology the draped bust coins were made to begin with. 

On 1/27/2023 at 10:53 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The simplicity of the Liberty Head obverse can grow on you after time.  And the proofs for the LH DE blow away the "proofs" for the Saint-Gaudens DEs. 

But I will also say that in terms of the pre-Renaissance coinage designs, the Draped Bust is the most artistic of all of them. 

On 2/6/2023 at 11:19 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Stupid Question Department.....do we still have Assay Commissions for coins ? 

Not since 1980

On 2/2/2023 at 12:07 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

MCMVII Ultra-High Reliefs:   In the Ultra-High Relief section....somewhat farcical.....the Mint BILLED Mrs. Saint-Gaudens (Augustus' widow) $20.12 (including postage) when she requested a UHR.  

One...cannot believe that they didn't comp her the coin or a few coins.   I mean, her husband dies designing what was known even then to be a very beautiful, artistic, and historic coin.  And they send her a bill !!  "Hello Mrs. Saint-Gaudens....sorry for the loss of your husband....we have your coin for you, that'll be $20...oh yeah, we'll need another 12 cents for postage."  Talk about tacky !! 

Second....for a group giving ASG and his assistants agita, they sure liked those UHR patterns.  I'm surprised given the demand for the coins -- Barber got 8, I believe -- that they didn't strike more for themselves and other VIPs.  Only 19 were struck.  Imagine if they had made a few dozen, if not a few hundred.

Barber gets a lot of hate for no reason IMO. Barber was right about the technical difficulties. Even though we have the technology then, I think Barber would've done a better job than some of the mint staff out there now. 

On 1/28/2023 at 9:37 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Roger says the basined dies used on the LH DEs give them that reflective look.  Plus you simply have a cluttered field on the Saint-Gaudens that didn't allow for mirror proofs at the time with their technology.  Today, with the AGE, at least you do have a very nice blackened mirror look esp. with the proofs like this:

Still isn't something the artist would likely support. On a side note I also wonder how many of the Saint Gaudens original plasters, hubs, dies etc. for the high relief coins were destroyed in 1910? Which assets did they use to create the 2009 UHR and the "refreshed" obverse on the 2021 and later AGE? 

On 1/27/2023 at 10:53 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The simplicity of the Liberty Head obverse can grow on you after time.  And the proofs for the LH DE blow away the "proofs" for the Saint-Gaudens DEs. 

Because lets face it, Saint Gaudens designs weren't designed to be made as a mirror finish proof. They look good in a satin finish or regular uncirculated finish. The Saint Gaudens obverse is used on the AGE's and something is off about the mirror finish proof with them. But the Liberty Head Double Eagle looks nice in mirror finish proof and would probably be a better fit for the low relief striking common today. 

I'd say the Liberty Head $20 is the best Longacre Design IMO. Much better than the Indian Head Cent. But the Saints are still a very attractive design. 

On 1/14/2023 at 1:38 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I'll bet they were OLDER dealers who were active in the 1970's.  And it's just a "matter of time" before we get another huge increase in gold prices because of all the money being printed or inflation that is being suppressed or government spending that is out of control....etc....etc....etc.  .

You probably remember the spectacular forecasters of that time -- like Howard Ruff of "Ruff Times" -- who still were being sought out decades later even after gold had ceased to be a good investment.

Gold having many years of flat or declining prices is actually GOOD FOR US because we can get coins that we want over time at good prices.

The time to buy Saints was before the pandemic.

On 1/9/2023 at 7:36 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Well, Barber must have loved what ASG eventually designed as he grabbed 8 of the MCMVII UHRs !! 

Nothing about the $20 Barber in the Saints book, Olympics.  But if you search the internet there's some stuff here-and-there like the PCGS link I posted above.

Thank God TR hired ASG !! 

The rivalry was definitely overstated! I think Barber gets a bad rap for no good reason. 

Since this is related to the Saint Gaudens series in some capacity, question for @RWB, is there any background on the 1906 Barber $20 pattern. I've read that Barber designed the obverse but Morgan designed the reverse, I kind of find it interesting since the liberty eagle with sword seems to be taken from an 1891 pattern piece which Barber designed and was rejected.