what happens if pcgs/registry set/ forums would disappear tomorrow???

[michael]

if pcgs where to go out of business totally within a week and also the registry set and collector forums where to be gone totally also never to return

 

what registry set coins would take the biggest hit percentagewise in terms of cash value?

 

in other words the top registry sets

or top 5 sets

in what series or specific coins would take the biggest hit in terms of cash value?

 

i think in my opinion there would be some sets that still would hold their cash value and other sets i think would take huge hits

 

it would be interesting to hear the thoughts

 

of which sets are mostly valued because of the plastic and registry set concept/grades

 

and which other sets are valued mostly because of the coin irregardless of the holders/grades/registry concept

 

and will this continue unabated the next few years??

 

michael

 

[EZ_E]

I believe that most modern ms-70 coins would plummet in value but the classics should remain relatively strong. The price margin between say an ms 66 and an ms 67 coin would probably decrease by half but would still be very marketable.

[IrishMike]

Michael, I have absolutely no idea nor do I care much about this issue, but I can predict that you will get flamed across the street for this post. Hope you are wearing your flak jacket today.

[LucyBop]

I would still keep collecting coins as I did before any of this existed.

[gmarguli]

if pcgs where to go out of business totally within a week and also the registry set and collector forums where to be gone totally also never to return

 

My life would be over and I'd be forced to spend my coins at face value.

 

Actually, from my personal collection not much would change. I have nice quality and eye appealing coins that will be easy to sell no matter what grading service is out there. Very few are low end coins. Most are solid for the grade. I also have no "wonder coins" so I wouldn't need to convince anybody that it really is an MS68 and worth $25,000 and not an MS67 worth $800.

 

If the registry were gone it wouldn't made a bit of difference to me since I think the registry is a fairly useless for collectors like me. If I went after insert grade then I would be devastated, but since I don't it wouldn't matter to me.

[MikeKing]

but I can predict that you will get flamed across the street for this post.

 

Michael, you posed a very very interesting and intuitively revealing post, just looking at the differences and the content of the responses on both boards. My gosh!

 

 

[michael]

irish mike and mike king if i had to do it over i would not have posted at all

 

 

i never realized i would get slandered and make some really upset

 

what are they afraid of?

 

i mean they are so angry and attacked me

 

man well i got some even more provictive things that if i posted a thread on them well someone might hire a hit man for me

 

well all i did was ask a simple question and man i got hit with a ton of bricks

 

 

 

well lets have a poll here should i continue to post here and post some more threads that will make this one look like candy? chocolate covered bananas?? or let sleeping dogs and oystridges heads in the sand

 

better left alone?

 

 

michael

[MAULEMALL]

They are pretty paronoid it seems.

[cladking]

I believe that most modern ms-70 coins would plummet in value but the classics should remain relatively strong. The price margin between say an ms 66 and an ms 67 coin would probably decrease by half but would still be very marketable.

 

...then the MS-70 classics would still have a ready market, eh? I didn't realize there were any MS-70 classics. There are no regular issue MS-70 moderns but this may not be relevant.

[cladking]

 

what are they afraid of?

 

 

 

 

I missed the personal attacks on you, though admittedly some seemed to believe that you had ulterior motives for the initial post.

 

Hmmmmmmmmmmm.

[michael]

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm i see to quote me is power

 

or is the sincerest form of flattery??

 

well lets see saying i am an anti basher

 

well yes

 

that is a compliment

 

oh yes they believe i had ulterior motives

who specifically are they?

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

also i hope you are not tried judged and executed without a trial

 

yes ulterior motives to just answer a question fairly and objectively

 

 

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

well i hope you are not judged so fast based on all the evidnece that is in someone elses head

[michael]

oh and yes admittedly some believe

 

 

 

yes who are these some??

 

and what do they believe??

 

does that make it true?

 

and finally why not just answer the original question if you have nothing to fear or hide

 

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

now that is the ultimate thing me thinks

 

you have something to hide

 

and that is okie

 

just do not take your concerns and reservations out on me

 

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

 

michael

[TomB]

I like the question very much, Michael, and I don't believe it was asked or delivered in a pejorative manner.

 

One of my answers will not surprise anyone and that is that I believe coins that have exceptionally small populations in one MS or PF grade but have relatively large populations in the immediately preceding grade would be the ones to suffer the greatest decrease in value. This is predicated, of course, on the assumption that these coins already trade at a significant premium over the penultimate pieces and that they do not have high basal values. In this instance, I believe that the issues that would be affected greatly would most likely be newer issues.

 

The second group of coins that I think would be affected greatly if PCGS went out of business would be wildly toned coins. I realize very well that this is my primary niche, however, I believe all the major services occassionally slab AT coins. However, I also believe they reject most AT coins that are submitted to them. The more wild or unorthodox the toning, the more likely one is to need the acceptance of either ANACS, NGC or PCGS to sell the coin for a healthy price. Should one of the major services go under, and in your case that would be PCGS, then I think that the wildly toned coins certified by PCGS would trade at a discount until they were crossed into one of their remaining competitor's holders.

 

I'm surprised that some folks apparently took exception to your questions, I thought they were completely valid. The case may be that some people have a bunker-like mentality for certain issues and this may be one of them. I know that when certain blanket statements are made about the veracity of toning I have to think about what the statements say and what they likely mean.

 

Keep up the good work, Michael!

[DonHeath]

Wow, quite a read on both boards. I have to assume you mean if all TPG's collapsed, as otherwise all the coins in any set could be reholdered. I did answer the hypothetical question posed in the original post. I'll restate my simple opinion. The collectors with the most money invested are the ones with the most risk. I don't believe that group includes only modern collectors or registry set participants. All TPG's closure would impact the entire market, and in terms of percentages would probably affect the modern sets worst, but in terms of actual dollars lost, would most certainly affect classic collectors worse. Very expensive coins are easier to sell with a guarantee. When one grade point means $200,000, the game becomes very serious. See TomB's recent post regarding selling raw. If a modern registry set participant loses 100% of $5,000 and a Morgan collector at the top of the registry loses 20%, guess who feels the more significant impact. Wasn't that the question?

[EVillageProwler]

I would still keep collecting coins as I did before any of this existed.

 

Ditto. If there is this implication that 3rd-party grading would be in jeopardy as a result, then I'd also stock up on the new CW holders and try to get an invitation to Dorkkarl's inevitable party!

 

 

EVP

 

[IrishMike]

Tom I am surprised you are surprised at some of the responses. It was quite predictable.

[cladking]

There is not always a substantial difference between the multiples for a one point grading difference between classics and moderns. Any of the classics with a large number of collectors will tend to have just as large a difference. The percentage loss would be the same. TomB makes a very valid point about coins with significant numbers of undergrades. This is certainly more common with modern regular issue coins than with the classic regular issue coins. There are exceptions like Morgan dollars which tend to have even larger numbers of undergrades but generally this would affect the moderns to a larger extent. Of course there are also exceptions within the moderns; there are some regular issues which are perhaps even scarcer in the just missed grades.

 

All of this is really most hypothetical anyway. It is good to think about such things since it can lead one to a better understanding of the markets and the concepts. I certainly have no problem with discussing such issues and thought the other thread was excellent before it self destructed (most surprising that it took so long). But some seem to have lost sight of the fact that such an eventuality is an impossibility. There is no going home again.

 

Even if it were possible there might not be nearly the implosion of pop top price which some envision. It is not the registries and third party grading which make collecting the best a possibility, it is the internet which brings the world to our door but it still costs real money to get actual delivery.

[Chippewa]

Nothing, except that a lot of people would get their first hard-knocks lesson in investing in a marketplace. It happens to all of us sooner or later so what is the harm.

[TomB]

I think cladking has made an excellent point about Morgan dollars. They have an incredibly steep price structure for many of their issues and most American numismatists would be hard-pressed to call them modern coins. Of course, if your definition of modern corresponds with the advent of the close collar then they are modern.

 

Perhaps a better subset as would be series that are collected by date and in high grade. These don't have to be modern. They only have to be popular among collectors and relatively attainable in higher grades.

[barberlover-migration]

{said tung in cheek]

 

MICHAEL!!! you troll !!! you trouble maker !!!

 

How dare you tell it like it is without sugar coating it !!! Now quick, let me cherry pick your certified collection before any 3rd party grading services go under.

 

Les

[michael]

thanks to

 

eze

irishmike

lucybop

tomb

maulemall

donheath

evp

chippewa

barberlover

mike king

gmarguli

 

for just giving their opinions on this thread topic with only one personally attacking me and judging me which was unfounded and with prejudice

 

 

 

michael

[gmarguli]

I think cladking has made an excellent point about Morgan dollars. They have an incredibly steep price structure for many of their issues and most American numismatists would be hard-pressed to call them modern coins.

 

Of course you could stick a Morgan dollar in front a group of collectors and dealers and they would likely be able to tell the difference between an MS65 and MS66. Even the borderline coins would be fairly easy to assign to one grade.

 

Try the same with a state quarter or a Roosevelt dime and most collectors and dealers wouldn't be able to tell the grade.

 

Now, which do you want to spend a 2000% price increase on, a Morgan dollar or a Roosevelt dime?

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

The coin world would continue to turn on it's axis. Most advanced collectors and dealers do not need the services to tell them the grade. The world of coin collecting is many times more sophisticated than it was 15 years ago. Maintaining this grade integrity with newer collectors and less than objective dealers would be the biggest problem.

[jom]

Now, which do you want to spend a 2000% price increase on, a Morgan dollar or a Roosevelt dime?

 

That has got to be one of the better reasoned posts I've seen in a while. Good job, Greg!

 

Most advanced collectors and dealers do not need the services to tell them the grade.

 

Exactly! In fact, I believe any long-time collector of a certain series will out-grade any PCGS or NGC grade in that series. Without question.

 

I would still keep collecting coins as I did before any of this existed.

 

Yep, exactly. Actually, even if the grading services disappeared tomorrow I'd still be doing the same thing.

 

As to Michael's point on the Registry question:

 

Personally, I wouldn't give a rats [!@#%^&^]. I do not participate but at one time I thought about it. I simply wanted to share my coins on the site just for fun. It turns I can do that anyway with my website so now I have even less of a motivation to "register" my set. I once had a PCGS grader question me why I'd bother to register an AU set of Indian Gold. I felt that was one of the most elitist things anyone has ever said to me and at that point lost all interest in the Registry thing.

 

The responses at the PCGS forum are quite hysterical. These people go out of their way to defend their sets. Why? Frankly, I don't give a damn what OTHER think of my coins. I'm only pleasing ONE person here and that is ME.

 

jom

[cladking]

Certainly everyone would rather spend their money on the Morgan dollar. Where's the comparison? It's old and shiny and ten times bigger. Believe it or not some of the Roosies aren't even silver!!! It's little wonder that people only want Morgans and the prices are far higher even though they are many times more common in some cases.

 

I've been collecting the wonderful Morgans for years now but have a lot of trouble getting them into those dang dime folders. Why can't they make those stupid holes a little bigger.

[RotatedRainbows]

I was collecting coins before slabs were around and if I am still alive when slabs companies disappear I would still keep collecting. I do not care what slab a coin is in or what the label says I always use the coin to determine my interest. The fact I have bought some GREAT coins in PCI Gold label slabs and NTC slabs proves it actually works when you look at the coin and ignore the label.

[truthteller]

Good post Michael. IMO, a subject like this has been approached before, and ALWAYS, the poster gets slammed by people who have a vested interest in the PCGS product and their submission services(ahh, memories of my days on the PCGS forums ). But it is MORE LIKELY, that a publicly traded company would either be bought out, sold, merged, shut down, etc., because the share price is the bottom line and company executives have to answer to their stockholders, not the submitters of the coins. IMO, a perfect example is the Jadecoin situation, where PCGS could care less, it's money out of PCGS's pocket, and the pocket is closed. NGC, on the otherhand, would have taken care of the issue privately and professionally. Michael, you stepped on toes, and those toes belong to fat feet, so it hurts them in the pocketbook. Keep up the good, thought provoking ideas.

 

TRUTH

[michael]

thanks truth!

 

 

and as an afterthought i never thought of this and now i understand the dynamics of the perception of the responses

 

michael

[IrishMike]

michael, I have felt that the depth of the response is related to a couple of things, how much a part in your collecting the registry plays. If it plays a large part then I think its natural to get defensive, maybe even to a fault. If it is a pleasurable side light then I think the thread you started might have been interpreted differently. One thing for sure is that if you make your living selling coins to registry participants, especially in the so-called modern venue then you might get very defensive and not give you the benefit of any doubt. But I doubt that would happen.

 

Edited to add: I couldn't find a smarta$$ icon for myself.

[DonHeath]

Mike,

 

Collection is a pleasureable sideline for me, and I don't have a registry set. I did try to start one here, but discovered I couldn't include all my varieties and errors. I enjoy collecting certain moderns, even if as an investment they prove themselves worth only face. I usually buy raw and submit myself, because for me that makes the hobby more fun. Since my interest in collecting isn't really financial, I always wince when I see cautionary threads and posts that seem thinly veiled investment advice. I've seen Michael's collection, and it is stunning. I respect his skills, and think his interpretation of the market is reasonable. I suspect Michael will some day sell his coins, and that he'll do very well. I also think his interpretation of the modern market is prejudiced by his own tastes. That's OK too, but it sure seems like this post has an agenda. I think it's reasonable to assume that agenda is to safeguard unknowing collectors that might be overpaying huge premiums for moderns. Frankly, that advice could reasonably be applied to anyone's collecting interest. The message would have more credibility coming from someone who was an active participant in moderns. Collecting represents some financial risk to all participants. I'm not sure Michael's risk isn't bigger than mine, but that's just my opinion. Michael, if your message was not "If PCGS went away tomorrow, beautiful original skinned true rarities would still be worth something and everything else would suffer huge losses", then I apologize for my misinterpretation.

 

Since we all seem so fascinated with protecting financial assets, why do you never see a thread like "If the stock market became super-hot and the investors pulled out of the coin market, would rare coin collectors forced to sell expensive coins face huge losses?" Perhaps Michael would be tolerant of that post the first few times I put it up, but I'd imagine if I made it recurring theme for several years, he'd call my intentions into question. JMO