PCGS vs "eBay Buy it Now" Pricing Question

[kmax00-migration]

Yesterday I posted a question regarding the quality of a Morgan dollar I hastily had bought. Today I would like to ask the question before I even consider purchasing...

 

***I am curious why a coin that is NGC graded PF70 and PCGS priced at $25,000 would have a Buy it Now price of just $4,984.***

 

I for one am not in the market for spending that kind of money on a coin that was minted during my lifetime (1978) because I'm more about the historical coins.

 

Here is a link to the eBay auction for the 1993-W $50 Gold Eagle ...

 

Thanks for the help!

 

Kent

[MAULEMALL]

Yesterday I posted a question regarding the quality of a Morgan dollar I hastily had bought. Today I would like to ask the question before I even consider purchasing...

 

***I am curious why a coin that is NGC graded PF70 and PCGS priced at $25,000 would have a Buy it Now price of just $4,984.***

 

I for one am not in the market for spending that kind of money on a coin that was minted during my lifetime (1978) because I'm more about the historical coins.

 

Here is a link to the eBay auction for the 1993-W $50 Gold Eagle ...

 

Thanks for the help!

 

Kent

Where is the $25.000 example...

[kmax00-migration]

That is the 25,000 dollar one - the 93-W Proof Gold Eagle is 25,000 and going down, but not 5K down... right???

[gmarguli]

***I am curious why a coin that is NGC graded PF70 and PCGS priced at $25,000 would have a Buy it Now price of just $4,984.***

 

1) Because there are a lot of stupid people that collect PCGS only and will pay for an insert.

 

2) Because the PCGS Price Guide is a joke.

[MarkFeld]

There are at least a couple of possible explanations: 1) NGC is either more liberal or perceived as more liberal than PCGS with respect to the grading of PR70 examples of that issue. I don't know what the respective NGC and PCGS populations are; 2) Regardless, the $25,000 price you saw listed might be highly inaccurate/too high. While it might not be the case in this particular instance, all pricing guides contain many inaccuracies, a number of them, quite significant.

 

Another factor to consider is, that far more times than not, a "buy it now" price is a bad deal for the buyer and a good deal for the seller.

[123cents]

It's all a numbers game Kent. PCGS does value the coin at $25,000 in their Price Guide because only 2 PCGS coins have graded PF-70. NGC, on the other hand, has graded 138 coins PR-70 so any coin like the one in the Ebay Auction is worth far less.

[kmax00-migration]

This place is awesome - thanks so much for the insight and for putting up with my novice questions.

[WinstonWare]

This place is awesome - thanks so much for the insight and for putting up with my novice questions.

 

Hey keep em' coming. We can answer them all day long...

[DC Dawg]

This place is awesome - thanks so much for the insight and for putting up with my novice questions.

Hey Kent... welcome to the neighborhood!

 

I'll tell you and every other newbie out there the same thing I tell my classes: there is no such thing as a stupid question except for the question that is not asked. Then once it's asked, it's no longer stupid. It shows the quest for knowledge. And in this hobby, knowledge is definitely power!!

 

Scott

[michael]

coin stands on its own merits

 

ask yourself this question....................

 

if you break this proof 70 ngc coin worth 4500+ out of its holder and put it raw in an airtight what will many interested buyers pay for this bullion piece

 

answer this and then you will know its true worth

[BillJones]

PCGS has a HUGE chunk of the modern coin market. Part of this is based upon the perception that their registry is more prestigious. Therefore some people who act like lemmings are willing to pay very high prices for coins in PCGS holders even when the coin in the holder never was or NOW is not as nice as the grade they put on the holder.

 

NGC has also been far more lenient in handing out the PR-70 grade than PCGS. That has added to the perception that PCGS PR-70 coins are better.

 

Finally the PCGS price guide is mostly a fairy land affair. Many of the prices there are WAY too high, but that works to their advantage. If they say coin in PR-70 D-Cam is worth $25,000 and a dealer offers one to a lemming for “only” $20,000, the lemming might take the bait because “it’s a “bargain.”

 

One of the reasons why PCGS banned a bunch of people from their board is that straight out of the old line Jack Nicholson shouted in “A Few Good Men.”

 

"You can't handle the truth!!!"

[Doogy]

i've read something recently that stuck out in my mind: (maybe it was Mark Feld or Scott Travers, don't remember which)

 

don' pay "moon money" for a coin that its value will drop like a rock the minute it is broken out of its holder. This is mostly true of "rare" moderns, that people buy for a small amount, have them slabbed and the value goes way up based on 69 versus 70. i think once this condition based "rarity" modern bubble pops, there are going to be a lot of people that dreaded sinking money into these bullion coins.

[MarkFeld]

i've read something recently that stuck out in my mind: (maybe it was Mark Feld or Scott Travers, don't remember which)

 

don' pay "moon money" for a coin that its value will drop like a rock the minute it is broken out of its holder. This is mostly true of "rare" moderns, that people buy for a small amount, have them slabbed and the value goes way up based on 69 versus 70. i think once this condition based "rarity" modern bubble pops, there are going to be a lot of people that dreaded sinking money into these bullion coins.

I didn't say it, but I certainly agree with it. Also, as far as I'm concerned, that applies to any and all types of coins, whether modern or classic.

[BillJones]

i've read something recently that stuck out in my mind: (maybe it was Mark Feld or Scott Travers, don't remember which)

 

don' pay "moon money" for a coin that its value will drop like a rock the minute it is broken out of its holder. This is mostly true of "rare" moderns, that people buy for a small amount, have them slabbed and the value goes way up based on 69 versus 70. i think once this condition based "rarity" modern bubble pops, there are going to be a lot of people that dreaded sinking money into these bullion coins.

 

Don't write this across the street. You will get your head taken off. I know because I've had my head removed many times over there. They call it "modern bashing."

 

But if you have any brains you know that the coin is worth "moon money" only when it's in the "right" holder. Out of the holder, it's like buying a lottery ticket.

 

And even in the "right" holder, there are a bunch of us who won't pay that kind of money for such a coin, and I would dissuade any of my customers for paying even "half moon money" for it.

 

The mint made a major effort to strike these coins well. High grade examples are NOT rare or even scarce.

[michael]

i've read something recently that stuck out in my mind: (maybe it was Mark Feld or Scott Travers, don't remember which)

 

don' pay "moon money" for a coin that its value will drop like a rock the minute it is broken out of its holder. This is mostly true of "rare" moderns, that people buy for a small amount, have them slabbed and the value goes way up based on 69 versus 70. i think once this condition based "rarity" modern bubble pops, there are going to be a lot of people that dreaded sinking money into these bullion coins.

 

Don't write this across the street. You will get your head taken off. I know because I've had my head removed many times over there. They call it "modern bashing."

 

But if you have any brains you know that the coin is worth "moon money" only when it's in the "right" holder. Out of the holder, it's like buying a lottery ticket.

 

And even in the "right" holder, there are a bunch of us who won't pay that kind of money for such a coin, and I would dissuade any of my customers for paying even "half moon money" for it.

 

The mint made a major effort to strike these coins well. High grade examples are NOT rare or even scarce.

 

 

bill jones i totaLLY agree with you but it is not modern bashing not in any way shape or form it is correctly bashing holders with coins enclosed in them with extremely rarified expensive plastic around them

 

not good or bad just the way it is but since there are collectors who love the holders and their collections value and their own personalities are so involved with plastic holders that they cant see the forest for the trees and think you are bashing modersn when you say something like this

 

they just do not get it you are not bashing modern coins or any coins you are bashing the rarified and extremely valuable plastic

 

any COIN IN PLASTIC BE IT A MS70 2003 LINCOLN CENT OR PROOF 65 SEATED QUARTER OR A PROOF 66 MORGAN DOLLAR always ask youself when considering such a purchase what is this coins current demand/liquidily/value outside of its respective holder???

[Doogy]

i've read something recently that stuck out in my mind: (maybe it was Mark Feld or Scott Travers, don't remember which)

 

don' pay "moon money" for a coin that its value will drop like a rock the minute it is broken out of its holder. This is mostly true of "rare" moderns, that people buy for a small amount, have them slabbed and the value goes way up based on 69 versus 70. i think once this condition based "rarity" modern bubble pops, there are going to be a lot of people that dreaded sinking money into these bullion coins.

 

Don't write this across the street. You will get your head taken off. I know because I've had my head removed many times over there. They call it "modern bashing."

 

But if you have any brains you know that the coin is worth "moon money" only when it's in the "right" holder. Out of the holder, it's like buying a lottery ticket.

 

And even in the "right" holder, there are a bunch of us who won't pay that kind of money for such a coin, and I would dissuade any of my customers for paying even "half moon money" for it.

 

The mint made a major effort to strike these coins well. High grade examples are NOT rare or even scarce.

 

 

Bill,

 

I agree with your sentiment 100%! I find it funny that so many newer (i.e. modern) collectors have read Scott Travers 'survival manual' book, but they seem to have skipped over the chapter on high-grade moderns. by the very definition, US moderns are always going to be high-grade. I remember when the modern thing got into full swing, you had the PCGS modern kool-aid drinkers droning on and on over how many more PF70s were in NGC holders, and that PCGS was 100% in grading these coins. Many gave examples of how only 1 or 2% of PF ASE coins graded by PCGS were 70 coins. I always shook my head at that and thought: mmmm.....the US mint is striking these just for collectors (not to be in rolls or spent), they are very carefully (double) struck, put in special plastic rounds, and then most were put in velvet boxes. When the Mint goes to such lengths for quality control of these proof collector ASEs, how in the world can only 1 or 2 per hundred be "perfect"?! i think PCGS was grading far too strict just to try to "make" the market in moderns, so the kool-aid drinkers would line up in droves to submit their bullion stuff in order to hit the jackpot with a 70.

 

just like the tulip craze, the modern coin era will pass too (or at least get to levels where they deserve; high mintage coins that all deserve high grades)

[just-john]

It's a $675.00 TO $700.00 coin ms70 ms69 msdlp69 or any other letters or numbers PERIOD. When a1881cc morgan with 296000 minted 106 yr ago ms65 worth $420.00. nothing modern is worth whats posted in the slab price guides

[Keleum]

I've been reading the idea of kool-aid drinkers and modern coin bubble in many posts here. I'm not so sure it will play out as a bubble bursting, or just one generation replacing the next in collectibles. Hopefully some of the marketing hype settles out.

 

Here's another scenario, that right at this point in time seems to me just as likely. Silver/Gold Eagles, commems, and any other uncirculated buillon coins replace early 20th century gold/silver as the most sought after coins, not only in volume but also in the hearts of a generation that just doesn't have the connection to early 20th century coins, any more than any other point in history. The attrition of antique (pre 1900) coins continues at it's current pace or accelerates as market pressures increase, leaving an ever shrinking circle of wealthy collectors/"coins as investment" brokers to worry about carson city.

 

In this alternate ending, the future collector values a consistent (all the same grade) gem set of state quarters, more than a type set of various grades morgans or early modern (pre 1970) proofs. Registries turn from who has the best of a set of coins, to who has the most "best" sets of coins.

[Doogy]

I've been reading the idea of kool-aid drinkers and modern coin bubble in many posts here. I'm not so sure it will play out as a bubble bursting, or just one generation replacing the next in collectibles. Hopefully some of the marketing hype settles out.

 

Here's another scenario, that right at this point in time seems to me just as likely. Silver/Gold Eagles, commems, and any other uncirculated buillon coins replace early 20th century gold/silver as the most sought after coins, not only in volume but also in the hearts of a generation that just doesn't have the connection to early 20th century coins, any more than any other point in history. The attrition of antique (pre 1900) coins continues at it's current pace or accelerates as market pressures increase, leaving an ever shrinking circle of wealthy collectors/"coins as investment" brokers to worry about carson city.

 

In this alternate ending, the future collector values a consistent (all the same grade) gem set of state quarters, more than a type set of various grades morgans or early modern (pre 1970) proofs. Registries turn from who has the best of a set of coins, to who has the most "best" sets of coins.

 

I find your post interesting, and very well thought out. yeah, it is a bit hard to predict where our hobby is going. In my opinion, part of the reason for collecting coins is to garner some sort of connection with the past. Many "modern bashers" (note: i am not one of them, they certainly have their rightplace, i was simply lamenting the whole registry grade game that is being played with them) note that there is no/little history with moderns, as many/most never saw circulation and wouldn't be able to tell much of a story if it could talk. Super high end moderns(condition rarieties, etc,) are seeing a dramatic rise in prices, so much so that if makes scratch their head. in fact, a lot of really nice looking (and nice condition!) US classics can be had for the same price as a "condition rarity" modern. I see those slabbed platinum bullion coins from last year at $2,500 and have to think that the buyers made a choice to buy them, not because they were pushed out of the US market by classic buyers and investors; one could buy a pretty nice US classic coin in a nice grade for $2,500. Because of this, i think the high end modern buyers will start to make the choice of which has more "value" in their mind, and they will gravitate back to the US classics.

[just-john]

I still can't see these prices look at the 1986 -s Liberty proof 6984 graded with

265 MS-70 6609 MS-69 .There were 6,900,000 Plus Minted none in curculation it's a $6.00

coin at best

[Keleum]

Doogy,

 

While I agree a "perfect" silver, gold, platinum proof eagle which appears to be a 1 in 4 occurence is not worth 4X the price to me. I don't see it as a forgone conclusion that the prices for modern coins will deflate like a latex balloon.

 

I can easily picture a future where aesthetic coin collecting is dwarfed by coin as an assest "brokering". I read the complaints of Legends and other dealer/collectors and wonder if the market has already crossed that line.

 

One of the first books I read, upon getting back into coin collecting very recently, was Traver's book on grading, in which he says in the 80s coins as assets(investments) was tried, and his opinion was that it could never be done, because the liquidity that was needed, is not possible in older coins. The numbers just-john lists tell me that problem is being solved, by the millions.

 

So my answer to just-johns question the reason 1986 proofs are so much more is the same reason why Google trades at 45X it's P/E, while Microsoft trades at 22X it's P/E, while Exxon-Mobil trades at 12X its P/E. I know thats heresy, to even think it, but it's what I observe as a newbie.

[just-john]

Stocks bought 100 shares google $150.00 =$15000.00 sold 100 shares at $500.00

made $35,000.00 Coins are different price guide say's 1991-s Mount Rushmore ms89 proof

$33.75 so say you take off the $20.00 GRADING FEE that makes the coin worth $13.75

not $33.75 as the guide shows.Then take a look at apmex web page 1991-s Mount Rushmore PCGS-PF 89 DCAM price $19.99 thake off the grading fee of $20.00 coin sell's for a price of NEG 1 cent.PS gave my son $5000.00 FOR THE TIP

[Houston Investor]

With the high quality coins the mint makes today, I do not believe the 70's mods are really that scarce and probably not worth more than say a 10 - 25% premium over raw. Sometimes I will buy a 70 in an ebay auction when the premium above raw is hardly more than the slab fee. I have some 70 AGE's but am trying to get to a certain bullion position and when bullion goes up considerably would probably start them in an ebay auction at melt and let the market decide.