What is in coin collecting's future???

[291fifth]

Let's see how good you are at predicting the future of coin collecting. What will be popular in 10 years? What will have faded in popularity. What is the future of coin clubs? Will brick and mortar coin dealers survive? How will coin business be conducted? Any other thoughts?

 

Let's try and keep the answers serious. No promoting your current passion unless you can really back up your statement. I will comment later.

[MAULUMALL]

Platinum.Beautiful coinage that are semi rare in proof.especially $25.00 coins.

 

 

Moderns are going to fade because there are so many of them.( And I love Moderns)

[Dermott]

Yep, moderns are going to drop like a rock... there are too many to sustain the premiums they have right now.

 

I think full LIBERTY Barbers have always been on the low side compared to their availibility.

 

Wheats and Indian cents will continue their steady climb for some time to come.

 

I believe silver Washingtons have levelled of somewhat and only the keys and semi keys will make any real movement.

 

US Gold (pre-33 issues) will remain flat unless the price of gold as a metal shoots upward.

[michael]

grumpy old men..................

 

also unreasonable with an ego thing and looking at something for nothing via the slabbing services and other services before sending to the slabbing services.........

 

not good or bad just the way it is just make sure you buy the coin not the holder

 

that is why coins will only get better and better

[gmarguli]

My predictions of what will happen by the end of the next 10 years:

 

State quarters will be dead. Most of the people who jumped into this hobby with the introduction of state quarters have long abandoned this hobby. Classic Washingtons are also dead.

 

Silver eagles are dead. Another decade with the same design is sure to bring extreme boredom to people in this hobby.

 

Registry sets are viewed upon like leisure suits. No one wants to admit they had one, but someone was buying them. Grade inflation burned too many people. People focus on collecting quality and not grade.

 

Moderns are dead. Too many people got burned and the mint is making the new coins too perfect.

 

PCGS is investigated by a DA or the federal government for illegal acts. PCGS is later spun off from CU. ICG folds as we now know it. They are sold to a Florida coin dealer who turns them into an ACG clone. ACG is put out of business by consumer lawsuits.

 

The mint will produce no modern commems that sell out its authorized mintage during this time. However, we will have over 100 different coins.

 

Toned coins. Too many AT coins slipped thru the grading services and buyers tired of them.

 

 

Hot:

Lincoln cents because of the 100 year anniversary.

 

Other than that if I knew I'd be buying them now.

 

[Chippewa]

The concept of U.S. coin collecting will only relate to issues minted prior to WWII. Everthing else will be considered to be original issue price stuff, except those ooins deemed to be perfect, which will be at 25% of their current value.

[braddick]

I agree with Greg other than the Services will be one step ahead of the Collecting public and when they anticipate we are fed up with something (like AT) they will respond quickly and decisively to avoid bad press.

 

I also see the fall of some of the Services, like ACG (not for the reasons Greg mentioned but simply due to the lack of anyone submitting). Same goes for NTC and, sadly because in many ways I like them: SEGS.

 

PCI is working in the black and will continue to be popular with Collectors who tire of the slow turnaround offered by PCGS.

 

NGC will begin to quietly purchase their past mistakes and slowly increase their market share, remaining at the top of their game with innovative ideas (also implemented!) and with agressive management that is willing to look longterm over short-term.

[cladking]

Yep, moderns are going to drop like a rock... there are too many to sustain the premiums they have right now.

 

Surely you don't believe this applies to all moderns? The existence of 200 billion Lincoln cents hardly makes it easier to find a modern rarity nor does it facilitate the search for an '84-D that's clean and struck on a good planchet. I would be interested in hearing why you think any modern will drop like a rock or do anything else. Most coin shows have almost nothing but classics yet no one claims classics are just too common and will drop like a rock.

 

There are people who actually collect these coins now!!!! They are finding that there aren't too many of some of them. The only way any coin can drop under normal conditions is for a decrease in demand to occur. What might cause such a decrease and will it have any effect on classics?

[cladking]

 

State quarters will be dead. Most of the people who jumped into this hobby with the introduction of state quarters have long abandoned this hobby. Classic Washingtons are also dead.

 

Unfortunately many have been driven off but some people don't scare so easy and will constitute the next generation of collectors.

 

Moderns are dead. Too many people got burned and the mint is making the new coins too perfect.

 

Higher quality at the mint will only affect older moderns as type coins. This could turn out a significant blow to the prices of those who's quality has improved but this doesn't affect all denominations and certainly doesn't affect the obsolete moderns such as eagle reverse clad quarters, SBA's, copper cents, and Ikes.

 

Most segments of the modern markets are very robust.

 

 

 

[cladking]

The concept of U.S. coin collecting will only relate to issues minted prior to WWII. Everthing else will be considered to be original issue price stuff, except those ooins deemed to be perfect, which will be at 25% of their current value.

 

There were coins minted right up until 1965 right?

[cladking]

Now is it time for the author of the thread to bash moderns too?

[reid1836]

I will try to keep my prediction as simplle as possible. I predict that by the end of the ten year span, Lincoln cent key and semi-key dates will have risen sharply. My reasoning for this prediction is that in the year 2009 when the Lincoln series is one hundred years old. The U.S. mint is going to effect a design change. Just as the change from the eagle reverse to the state reverse on quarters had a dramatic effect on the key and semi-key dates of the washington series.

[gmarguli]

I agree with Greg other than the Services will be one step ahead of the Collecting public and when they anticipate we are fed up with something (like AT) they will respond quickly and decisively to avoid bad press.

 

Interesting. I view the services as reactive instead of proactive. Very few times have I ever though that they did what the market wanted before the market had to slap them and say "Look here dummies. This is what we want...".

 

For example, moderns. The services never foresaw the huge market for modern coins. NGC cast it off as a scam and PCGS considered it a meaningless percentage of their business that was nothing more than a novelty. The public wanted these coins and forced the grading services to adapt. If it weren't for moderns PCGS would be out of business.

 

The grading services graded the proof moderns on a 1-69 scale (really more like a 63-69 scale). The PR70 graded didn't exist. The market wanted it and so it was made by both services.

 

PCGS graded a ton of awful coins as gem several years back as did NGC with lifeless coins. They had no clue the market wouldn't accept these coins. Both services have bought many back, yet these coins still float around and are viewed as albatrosses by the market.

 

You used to be able to submit lusterless, but mark free coins to the grading services and get high grades. The market didn't like the coins and now the services seem to limit these coins to the MS62 grade.

 

10% red used to get you a RB designation. The market hated these coins and the services adjusted.

 

The services were slow to add CAM/UCAM designations. Same with Full Step, FBL, etc. In the beginning they didn't even use PL/DPL on Morgan dollars.

 

Being proactive can cause you trouble like the FB designation that PCGS was proactive with. Right now the market is DEAD. It's kind of a joke. People are laughing at PCGS over this. It might turn out to be a meaningful designation in the future, but right now it has been an unmitigated failure. It's got as much respect as a FEB does on an ACG graded Washington quarter.

 

As for AT coins, I've been told that the services get a lot of feedback from the bigger tone dealers. These dealers will let them know what they can and can't slab and get away with.

 

If I had to pick the most proactive grading service, it'd be ANACS.

[kranky]

Increased popularity for any current series that has a design change. I think interest in moderns will continue, but there will be a dropoff in the high value top-pop coins as people who like the supergrade coins will lose interest in keeping their sets current.

 

I think coin clubs will fade even more as places like this one become the "virtual" clubs of the future. It's not as good, because there's no substitute for periodic meetings where you can look at actual coins and talk about them face-to-face.

 

The B&M dealers will survive in two tiers - the giants (Heritage, etc.) and the neighborhood shops if there's no competition. Those shops make it by buying, not selling, when collectors die without leaving clear instructions on how to dispose of their collections. Those collections walk into the small shops where they are bought for a bargain price.

 

A couple way-out-there predictions: like diamonds, rare coins will get microscopic ID numbers etched on the edge which will permit permanent traceability. This will kill the crackout game.

 

Also, there will be a day of reckoning for the growing price gap between the top-pop coin grade and the next grade down. I don't know if that means the top coins will fall or the next grade down will rise, but I think the gap will close. There will be a lot of collectors who decide one grade point isn't worth 10x multiples.

[cladking]

Tokens, medals, and world coins will be growing in popularity in twenty years. The hobby will again be about ready to enter a state of decline but it won't be obvious for some time. Prices on the whole will have quit rising and only some series will be hot.

[291fifth]

I am the author of this thread so it is now time to say something. First, I am happy to see so many thoughtful comments. I posted a similar thread across the street an elicited mostly, but not entirely, childlike responses.

 

He is what I think will happen:

 

1. The series that are popular now will be the same series that remain popular in the future.

2. Regular circulation and proof moderns will have faded badly. The current boom will have proven to be a rather short-lived fad. Some collectors will lose a great deal of money in this area.

3. Modern commemoratives will experience much greater popularity as improved design quality draws collectors back to them. The mint seems to be serious about addressing the design quality problem. Some of the issues of the 1995-2000 period will experience significant price gains.

4. State quarters will fade badly when the series ends. Too high a percentage of the issues have meritless designs and the general public will quickly lose interest.

5. Only two grading services will be left. NGC and ANACS. Management quality and high levels of customer service will save both of them.

6. Premiums for the mega-grades will fade as more and more collectors realize it is stupid to pay big premiums for differences so slight that high power magnification is needed to see the difference.

7. Coin clubs will be few and far between. The average age of club members today is very high and aging will take a heavy toll.

8. Specialized groups, some with very selective membership, will have arisen and will fill the coin club function.

9. Exonumia will remain a marginal part of numismatics. New issues of high quality will be few and far between.

10. Unless something is done regarding health care/health insurance costs and job prospects for middle age people, collecting will decline due to lack of discretionary income among a large part of the population.

11. Brick and mortar coin shops will decline sharply as most coin business will be conducted online.

12. Foreign and ancient coins will be about as they are today in terms of popularity (essentially, marginal areas).

13. If the cent is discontinued it will see a great rise in popularity initially. This will be followed by a long, slow decline as the people who remember using them in circulation age.

 

Sorry if my thoughts offend some of you but I do think these things are likely to happen.

 

 

 

[Oldtrader3]

I believe that there will be a shake out of the Grading Services to (3), ANACS,NGC,PCGS. There will be more market seqmentation of these services.

 

The Pop-Top frenzy will have been rationalized into that which is truly scarce. The rest will be cheap.

 

Modern issues of new circulating coin designs will continue to be more important and will continue to spark newb. interest in the hobby.

 

As more Quadrillions of Yuppie bucks go into savings and 401k's, the rare coin market will do well.

 

AT and doctored coins will become more sophisticated and will cause more caution with buyers. Processes will have to be invented to verify authenticity.

 

I hope that the Commen. Program becomes more innovative and appearance (artistically) oriented. Also, lower strike volumes would be nice.

 

The Raw coin dealer will be almost extinct, except at a very local level.

[braddick]

Greg- I based my thoughts on the future linked to the past. Being reactive, in the past, hasn't served PCGS or NGC well. Being proactive (my hopes is they are in the near future-), although occasionally offering a stumble here and there (read: FullTorch Roosevelts!), is a better position to be in then the alternative.

The Collector is more forgiving of a Service for being bold and making an effort vs being lazy and reacting only after the problem is so pronounced they're left with no choice.

 

The author of this Thread suggests PCGS will no longer be with us in ten years.

I don't find this to be true. PCGS is like a bad school district. Principles and teachers get fired and the schools reform and improve. Likewise PCGS will cycle into better times and become better equipped to handle the varied problems they are faced with now (slow turnarounds, loss of credibility and RE-submissions by faithful Dealers/Collectors).

[cladking]

Most people who attempt to predict the future are actually merely predicting the present. They see how things are and believe they can extend that out indefinitely. Others will predict the things they want to happen but these predictions give one far more insight into the predicter than the future.

[braddick]

Most people who attempt to predict the future are actually merely predicting the present. They see how things are and believe they can extend that out indefinitely. Others will predict the things they want to happen but these predictions give one far more insight into the predicter than the future.

I predict that in ten years your statement will be proven to have been pure conjecture.

[cladking]

I predict that in ten years your statement will be proven to have been pure conjecture.

 

I predict that you'll have an hilarious post which will rip my guts out, and this thread will change over to praising moderns and become extremely lenghty.

 

Hey, I just make this stuff up.

[braddick]

I predict that in ten years your statement will be proven to have been pure conjecture.

 

I predict that you'll have an hilarious post which will rip my guts out, and this thread will change over to praising moderns and become extremely lenghty.

 

Hey, I just make this stuff up.

 

[dpoole]

The Baby Boom has dramatically affected every aspect of cultural life in this country as it's moved trhough the life cycle. We're about to have this demographic phenomenon of the last half-century begin to graduate their children from college, and move into the era of discretionary income/spending. They will be at their peak earning years, and will be looking around for things to do in their empty-nest houses.

 

Coin collecting was popular during the late fifties and early sixties among kids. They moved on to other things, but we hear again and again how people collected as kids, and now are getting back into them.

 

My prediction is that the Baby Boom will reenter the hobby in droves, compete for high quality collections and drive prices up for the popular series of their youths (Lincolns, Buffs, Indians, Liberty Nickels, Mercs, SLH Quarters, Walkers). In twenty years, when this group begins to die off or require their money back for medical needs, these collections will reenter the market, and drive prices back down.

 

Of course, if speculators and investors get back into the hobby in large numbers, all bets are off. We'll have another steep crash, no matter what the demographics are. Advice: when Blanchard starts calling you again: sell!!

 

Also, I think market pressure will eventually prevail: to certify graders and to have common grading standards among the services, as designated and enforced by some sort of review board.