Market is hot and everyone's enjoying this hobby and....

[toyonakataro]

I kept on losing lots from pre-ANA auctions

My bid wasn't strong?? I DON'T THINK SO

 

 

 

 

[keithdagen]

I didn't win anything on the pre-ANA lots either -- probably doesn't make you feel better, but you're not alone.

[dragon]

I am not convinced this market is as HOT as many dealers, hypesters, auctions firms, grading services, etc. would have us believe. I do however believe that many collectors are caught up and affected with auction fever and are bidding silly amounts for relatively common pieces at auction.

 

I say this because I carefully went over nearly every single Morgan dollar lot from the recent ANA Heritage and B&M sales and saw many, many coins that either had so-so, nothing special color or were relatively common dates/grades with no upgrade potential sell for really absurd prices. In many cases, these coins sold for far more than they probably could have been purchased for on the bourse floor or from any dealers retail price list.

 

I think many inexperienced collectors have been brainwashed into believing we are in a raging bull market for all coins and are WAY overbidding in many instances. I also noticed that many coins went unsold at the Heritage sale, and many were subsequently offered for direct sale afterwards at seemingly rediculous prices for what they were IMO.

 

dragon

[braddick]

I didn't win anything on the pre-ANA lots either -- probably doesn't make you feel better, but you're not alone.

There's a secret to NOT loosing a bid during these auctions.

Don't bid. That's my trick.

[keithdagen]

I didn't win anything on the pre-ANA lots either -- probably doesn't make you feel better, but you're not alone.

There's a secret to NOT loosing a bid during these auctions.

Don't bid. That's my trick.

 

I've gotten to the point that I concentrate on one or two coins tops and try harder to win them. I think I've only managed to win a single lot this year off a major auction, and even then, it came from a Bullet sale.

[toyonakataro]

I didn't win anything on the pre-ANA lots either -- probably doesn't make you feel better, but you're not alone.

Thanks, I feel better now

I'm expecting to attend Long Beach Show in Sep. but my concern is what if I can't afford anything from that show

[gmarguli]

If the market is so hot, then why are some top pop coins failing to continue to make new highs, why are some down 50% for their highs, and why are generics not moving like they should?

[dragon]

Exactly what gmarguli said, with most generics being the most evident examples.....many are only marginally above their all time lows.

 

Anytime a dealer, auction company, grading service, or anyone else directly connected within the industry tells you how red hot the market is, just remember they have a VESTED INTEREST in telling you that, and making you believe it

 

dragon

[dakra]

I have to agree with Greg, I see too many coins bringing in weak prices. I think the only thing Strong about the market now is how much it is being Hyped!

 

"Double Nuclear"

 

If the market is so hot, then why are dealers spending so much time trying to convince us how hot it is?

 

 

Say Greg, Did you get mail from DHRC? His "Inside View" was laughable at best. Why am I receiving this when I have been banned? More Hype!

 

-Dave

[lazeroo]

hey greg,

I think it's more like were all bidding on the junk that's left.

 

there were some nice coins that brought big bucks but most of the coins I was after were really hard to keep bidding as there was little or no chance they would upgrade or gain in price.

 

the 34-p lincoln went for 12600$ and I'M pretty sure my NGC coin is in better shape.

 

I think most of the good coins are already in someone's collection and were just picking thru the leftovers.

 

rob.

[truthteller]

I've been through two boom and bust cycles of the market, 1980 and 1989 and I saw the exact same words, phrases and explanations being touted. This market is very different and is definitely not a boom. While specific ends of the market are indeed quite active, many portions of the market are dead. I truly believe that this is not a bull market, but a thining of high end coins into very specific collectors hands, who have tons of cash. The appearance of the overall market is made to look good, but these collectors/investors are also unloading coins. Example is the 1913 nickel that sold for $3 million. When the coin came on the market at the Salt Lake winter ANA there were no biddders willing to go $2 million. In fact, Dwight Manley had offered $2 million to the owner just before the auction, and he passed, and the owner lost over $100,000 potential profit. Now this fabulous coin sells for $1.2 million more in two years? If it truly was a bull market, why not sell this coin in 6 months for $4 million?To you and me, that doesn't mean squat. The millionaires are buying because the coins are being promoted, the average joe smoe cannot buy, because his house is in foreclosure. The proof will be in 60 days when ANA auction invoices are due.

 

TRUTH

[braddick]

Big Coins bring big money. It's ALWAYS been that way- hot markets or not.

 

Generics generally don't, hot market or not (1989 doesn't count because back then no one suspected 1881-S's in MS65 were common-).

[gmarguli]

Say Greg, Did you get mail from DHRC? His "Inside View" was laughable at best. Why am I receiving this when I have been banned? More Hype!

 

Yep, I still get it. I usually throw it in the trash without reading it. David Hall might be a lot of things, but he has NO CLUE WHATSOEVER about the coin market. He picks wrong with regularity.

[gmarguli]

I think it's more like were all bidding on the junk that's left.

 

I think most of the good coins are already in someone's collection and were just picking thru the leftovers.

 

I don't know. Strong prices bring out nice coins.

 

The MS68 silver Washingtons failed to bring strong prices. Several top pop commems have failed to sell for decent prices recently. One below top pop Lincolns are dead. I saw some top pop barbers just roll over and die recently.

 

These past auctions had a ton of nice material in them, but they failed to bring STRONG prices unless they were either top pop or something special. Lots failed to sell. I know I could have picked up a fair amount of nice stuff at OK prices had I been interested.

 

I still can't give away generic stuff.

 

Unless it is top pop or special it isn't hot and I don't think it is just junk that is out there right now.

[toyonakataro]

I think it's more like were all bidding on the junk that's left.

I think most of the good coins are already in someone's collection and were just picking thru the leftovers.

I didn't follow every series from those pre-ana auctions, but sure there were nice stuff. I think I did bid strong, but the price went really high this time.

Here's what I lost

1Barber half from Heritage

 

2 Bust half from Heritage

 

3 Bust quarter from B&M

 

4 Bust half from B&M

 

 

After I saw the hammer price, especially two bust coins from B&M, I felt like I'm stupid because my bid was far below the hammer price.

I didn't follow many results, but I feel the area I'm interested in is getting hot.

[291fifth]

I've been in coins long enough to ignore the hype from dealers and the numismatic press. Has any auction house ever reported that their sale was less than a great success?

 

The market for the hyper-grade coins is driven by a combination of ego and availability of cash. It actually involves a relatively small number of collectors. (I'm not one of them!) Why would anyone pay big money for a 1963 proof cent...no matter how it good was?

 

I think it is time for average collectors to rethink their priorities. Is there any reason to pay huge premiums for coins that represent such a minor improvement over the next lower grade that they require high power magnification to tell the difference? My own feeling is that once the MS67 grade has been reached the grading cycle has essentially been maxed-out.

 

I don't see anything to indicate a so-called "bull market" in coins. There is a solid market for nice coins...there nearly always is. In fact the last time I remember the coin market really coming to a halt was 1982. I recall going to a major regional show as a collector and doing no business at all. No buying, no selling, no trading.

 

There was no eBay in 1982. If you really want to find out what your coins are worth watch the true auctions on eBay with accurate descriptions, good photos and sellers with excellent reputations.

If you happen to own, or want to own, similar material the price realized in those auctions is going to be a close match to what you could expect to get for your coins if selling or pay if buying. Keep in mind that the number of coin auctions on eBay that meet my standards for a true auction have been shrinking steadily. You actually have to hunt for them now.

 

Also, beware of claims about private sales of very high priced coins. Who knows what is really going on.

 

As someone has said previously in this thread, we may have to wait until the auction invoices come due to tell just how good the market really is. Many coin dealers are poorly capitalized. If they haven't managed to find a home for their auction purchases by the time the invoices come due there may be a rapid slow down in the coin market.

 

 

[michael]

oh the market is great in fact fantastic!

 

BUT ONLY FOR EXTRAORDINARY COINS WITH EXCEPTIONAL CHARACTISTICS

AND SUPERB GREAT FANTASTIC EYE APPEAL

 

THE OTHER 99% OF THE MARKET IS GOOD TO FAIR TO MIDDLING

 

FOR ME for the most part with some exceptions like crazy highs this has been the market as per the above as i see it the last 37 years

[Elcontador]

I'm with Truthteller on this. Fewer and fewer very choice coins are going to a small sector of the market at the high end where price apparently is not an issue.

 

Re 19th & early 20th century type, if you are willing to step away from the Registry Set level, the market is so dead that rigor mortis is setting in. Barber Dimes & Quarters in MS 65; dead. Barber Halves in MS 65 have never been this weak in years (as usual, the problem is finding them). Liberty & Shield Nickels in MS 65 & lower, dead. Even PF Liberty Nickels below PF 67, dead. Seated material w motto in MS 66 & lower, dead (except 6s with nice color). SLQs, FH or no in MS 65 & below, dead.

 

I finally got my nice MS 65 RB Braided Hair Large Cent at where the market has been for the last two years at the Heritage sale.

 

Generally, Registry Set quality material re what I collect is hot. Silver Draped Bust material in AU or better is very hot. Draped Bust copper in MS 64 or better with nice color is hot. The 1810 Classic Large Cent in 3 BN on which I bid 10% over trend went for 5 $. Seated material w motto in MS 66 with exceptional color or MS 67 or better is hot.

 

Nice no motto Seated material continues to be scarce & strong. Higher end Seated $ & Trade $s continue to be strong. I don't think there are any bargains in Capped Bust Dimes or Quarters in 4 or better. I don'[t think the most popular coins, ie., the Walkers & Morgans, ever get really weak.

 

Toyo - I think the 1836 quarter is a 'date' and not a 'type' coin. A later date Capped Bust type quarter in 3 (like an 1835) is a $1,900 to $2,200 coin.

 

 

[shirohniichan]

I'm with Truthteller on this. Fewer and fewer very choice coins are going to a small sector of the market at the high end where price apparently is not an issue.

 

Re 19th & early 20th century type, if you are willing to step away from the Registry Set level, the market is so dead that rigor mortis is setting in. Barber Dimes & Quarters in MS 65; dead. Barber Halves in MS 65 have never been this weak in years (as usual, the problem is finding them). Liberty & Shield Nickels in MS 65 & lower, dead. Even PF Liberty Nickels below PF 67, dead. Seated material w motto in MS 66 & lower, dead (except 6s with nice color). SLQs, FH or no in MS 65 & below, dead.

 

 

Could much of the blame for low prices be attributed to grade inflation over the years? For example, if prices for "MS-65" coins are the lowest in 5 years, could it be that the current MS-65's are the MS-64's of the past?

[MikeKing]

I am not convinced this market is as HOT as many dealers, hypesters, auctions firms, grading services, etc. would have us believe

 

I second that notion AND, I think truthteller has it right about PROMOTION. I've never seen anything like it. YES, the 'millionaires' are buying all the hype!!!

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

There's a secret to NOT loosing a bid during these auctions.

Don't bid. That's my trick.

 

My sentiments exactly.

You know, I bid on this one FANTASTIC coin, and was outbid during live auction...I was watching it on the internet and my finger went over the mouse button ready to click and I said...you know what? NO....I DONT HAVE to bid this one up.

 

Lesson learned? Are there any? YES!!!

You don't have to have everything you want.

You can learn about value through the coin you DONT have!!! and now you have something to compare it to!!!!

 

I have to agree with Greg, I see too many coins bringing in weak prices.

 

There are a LOT of WEAKNESSES in this market. The HYPE is there, and I think it created bidding that put me off from getting a few coins, but its HYPE, there were too many weaknesses in these past few auctions. Like those Washingtons, and the Franklins...forget it....whoa....bargain city!!!

 

There were quite a few bargains hidden in there, like right after a few overblown 1/2 cents (like a 1/2 Breen-2 going for 3,240 when it's worth almost a thousand less), you'd find some extraordinary coin going for an incredible bargain (like the 1885 1/2 cent Breen-1 MS65 RD that sold for 2,600.00 when its a 5,000 dollar coin). Some Lucky buyers there...

 

Here's what I lost

Bust quarter from B&M

 

Don't fret it!!! You didn't lose anything...it has a damn fingerprint on it and it's dirty...keep looking and you'll find something a lot nicer.

 

Mike

ps

I really got into this auction big time but picked up only one coin. Most of the fun was in watching and anticipating. Great learning experience.

 

 

[Leothelion]

I believe two things happened to cause the false hype; 9/11 and the registries. When stock markets plummetted in the airlines and others, people started to look for other means to invest their money. The BS that they are fed is that when there is a bull market, coins can be bought and saved and profitted from bull market to bull market. So the guy looks at his holdings and figures he can invest 2-3% of his 50 million into coins. He may or may not have a clue as to why he ends ups paying the 38,000 for a modern coin. Maybe it's to avoid a higher tax bracket or they can write off the loss somehow or it gets offset with other investments. Whatever the reason, we can kiss them coins goodbye until life teaches the foolish buyer to give up on coins. And believe this, there are some brokers, dealers or whoever they are, should get a medal of some kind for being some of the biggest BS'ers around for talking these folks out of their millions.

What greater thrill is there then to stand next to the guy you CONNED into making the investment. I couldn't do it, I wouldn't be able to keep a straight face

 

Leo

[Elcontador]

"Could much of the blame for low prices be attributed to grade inflation over the years? "

 

That could be part of it. Unless you're looking at MS 66 & better, finding attractive Unc. Barber coins has always been tough. I've also seen more 'baggy' and weakly struck MS 65 & 6 Seated coins in the last several years.

[roadrunner-migration]

I cannot agree with some of the things said earlier in this thread. Many generics are in fact strong or hot. Late date walkers were selling briskly at ANA. Just typical 65's and 66's of average dates. MS65 and 66 common date Morgans are now being eagerly sought....no doubt for promotions. Try to find quantities at today's prices. Commens are being sought out too. Average MS65 and 66 type in Barbers and Seated is certainly not dead. As long as the coins are at least average and believable in the grade, they can be sold at good levels. A few months ago these were indeed not saleable. This in itself is a radical change.

Maybe not a bull market but one with a broad based demand. My gut feel after attending ANA and selling similar material indicates that nearly everything pre-1917 is selling ok. I'm not surprised at weakness in Washingtons or other later series that have experienced massive price increases over the past few years. That can't go on forever while MS65 Barbers hardly budge. Anything attractive and ok for the assigned grade should have no problem finding a buyer. If anyone can't sell their nicely toned bust, Barbers or seated, give me a holler.

 

roadrunner

[dragon]

Roadrunner,

 

Interesting,,,,,,,, when I was at the Mid-America show just several weeks ago, it seemed that you practically couldn't give away many generics including Morgans in 65 and 66, especially so for NGC graded pieces. Perhaps even that segment of the market is now seeing some demand as you say within the past month or so.

 

I have always felt that generic Morgans, Walkers and Saints were the so-called bread and butter coins of the market, and without price increases and/or demand in these areas, we cannot truly have a sustained bull market in coins, JMO.

 

dragon

[roadrunner-migration]

Dragon, I can only surmise that the market is indeed expanding to now include generics. Regardless of the number of common MS65 Morgans graded you can't locate any appreciable qty on short notice w/o affecting the bid levels. They are well dispersed. At $75-80 a coin it just seems too cheap for a 100 yr old silver crown. A friend of mine sold all his mint state Walkers yet he couldn't get any interest in the proofs. After the run-up the proofs had just completed I'm not surprised. If the average Joe starts to get interested in older coins, Morgans will be one of them.

 

roadrunner

[MikeKing]

There is a lot of hype promoting and stimulating the market. But also, there are buyers, so I guess the market is indeed hot.

 

For example, Heritage has a sign hanging over each coin stating: "new Take 6 months to Pay!".

 

They are soliciting you to stretch on credit.

 

The squeeze is on, and if you're going into credit, you're entering a realm that goes beyond what people really have in their pockets.

 

Interesting.