Yet Another Long Beach Thread

[gmarguli]

Yes, I know there are at least two other Long Beach threads, but I want my own. These are my observations based on being there two days. My opinions and observations only - YMMV. Yes, it is long.

 

The market is white hot, nuclear, everything is in demand, prices are skyrocketing, dealers don't have a single coin left to sell, blah blah blah. That's what is going to be written about the show. That's what is written about practically every show since the beginning of time. In reality, many dealers were talking publicly about how the show was great. I think they read the same -script. A few dealers that talked candidly (quietly) indicated that they had good luck during the pre-show events. The actual show wasn't exactly on fire for them. From what I was hearing, there was a lot of dealer-to-dealer sales, but not many dealer-to-customer sales. The show was not crowded at all. I don't know what the actual attendance was, but it appeared to me that there was a lot less people that I remember in the past.

 

What was hot? Coins of color that were priced well were in very scarce supply. Nice color with wishful thinking and full retail prices sat in cases. Very few monsters available and those were priced to sit and sit they did. Several dealers had nice toned pieces, but they were priced at stupid levels and I mean really stupid levels. They would NEVER sell at these levels. Brilliant white coins were either hot or cold. The fact that there were a zillion at the show made it pretty hard to tell if they were selling. Several of the "higher end" dealers had sparsely filled cases by the middle of the day on Friday. I assume they sold the coins that were in the cases. Several dealers seemed to have boxes of coins that weren't for sale. Quizzing a couple of them, it appeared that they were not for want lists, but rather they were for inventory. I can only assume that they didn't want to flip the coins at the show because they expect prices to rise soon. Type stuff seemed to move well. MS Seated seemed to be moving. Proof Seated seemed not to move too much. Copper was slow. For some reason gold coins didn't seem to be a hot item even though gold bullion has been on the rise. At least nicer gold (proofs and gems and super gems).

 

The top pop phenomena has finally cooled? The registry dead? Perhaps. I saw quite a bit of top pop (pop 1 and pop 1+) coins sitting in the cases. Two shows ago this stuff would have been gone in a split second. No more. I don't know if people are just no longer willing to pay stupid prices for a tiny difference in quality or they were just priced too high. Some of it might be due to the "exploding pops" on these top pop coins. I heard a lot of griping about the number of top pop coins being made recently. This isn't just in the modern series, but the so-called classic moderns and semi-classics and even some in the classics. I don't follow the pops close enough to know what exactly is going on there, but there were several dealers talking about the recent jump in top pops (i.e. coins where 0 or 1 were in a certain grade for 15 years and in the last 6 months there are now 5). There have also been at least 6 (possibly 7) brand new top pops that I am familiar with in the last couple of months. That is massive and I mean MASSIVE. There was some "talk" about a dealer that turned in a ~$10,000 investment into ~$100,000 by hitting several upgrades into the top pop category. I fear gradeflation is coming again. Too many recent top grade explosions and new top pops.

 

The grading at the show: PCGS reported a ton of business on Wednesday/Thursday. The NGC slabbing machine was broken from what I heard, so they couldn't slab the coins much of these days. They got backlogged. I have to assume that PCGS got a lot more business because of this. The PCGS submission area seemed rather slow after the NGC machine was back up. However, this might have been due to the fact that PCGS wasn't guaranteeing their turnaround time. The NGC area wasn't flooded with people, but it had a constant stream of people as far as I saw. The ANACS booth seemed dead. Usually there would be a line of 5-10 people there waiting for a free opinion. Every time I walked by it there was practically no one there. The ICG booth was a wasteland. I got to see this booth for a LONG time and I'm surprised the people manning it didn't fall asleep from the lack of disturbances.

 

People seemed pleased with the grades that they were getting at the show. No gifts, but not that BS super-tight junk that they have done in the past. I heard about PCGS that they were "so-so, at least they aren't killing us like before" and about NGC "OK, I guess I'm pleased". I don't really know how ICG was grading since I don't think anyone submitted a coin to them.

 

Very few ACG coins on the floor. VERY few. Probably less than 50 that I saw. NTC had a lot more coins there, but not a lot overall. PCI was well represented at a few dealers, but overall there wasn't too much. Most of the dealers that had a few they seemed to be older PCI slabs (before they turned into ACG II). A fair amount of collector coins seemed for sale. I'm talking about raw circulated stuff in the under $100 range. I don't know why it was out these past two days since it's not the collector days, but it was there.

 

On a personal note, I got to meet a lot of the forum members. There were so many that I won't even try to name them all. I know I'd forget 1/3 of them. The other forum lunch was nice. Thanks to MITCH/WONDERCOIN for picking up MY lunch. Had a nice chat with Miles Standish. Spent the first day of the show walking the floor with braddick and just talking coins. It was a lot of fun. Usually I'm a little more focused trying to buy and not chatting with the dealers. However, braddick likes to chat with the dealers and it provided an interesting experience as well as a learning experience. A thoroughly enjoyable experience.

 

I didn't purchase much. I got a GWC Commem from Bryan Orsborn at Texas Bullion Traders (ToneKiller on the forums, but he doesn't post here much because of some lame excuse about the software here even though he is an ex-computer guru {cough, cough, hint, hint, Bryan}). It's a stunning coin. He offered it to me on Thursday and then told me someone else was promised first shot at it. Well, this morning that piker finally passed and after a short couple hours of negotiating I was able to get him down from 42X bid to a reasonable price of only 30X bid. I'm sure he just wanted me to leave his table and caved in.

 

The picture does the coin NO justice. It's probably the worst picture I've ever taken of a toned coin. All that brown toning you see, well it's not brown, but in reality it is rings, swaths, and splashes of gold, red, purple, vibrant blue, dark blue, forest green, sea green, yellow, burgundy, and brown. The reverse has rainbow rings of several of those colors. It's a REALLY nice looking coin, especially for a series known for not usually having pleasing color. It's an NGC MS65.

 

I picked up a Texas Commem (1936-D) in an old ANACS MS65 slab. Super luster with patches of vibrant blue and gold/red color. Some dark reds and burgundy are also present. Picked it up for $30 above sheet. The guy even warned me before quoting me that it would be more than sheet since it was so nice. I was expecting a lot higher price. Not bad considering the mintage on the coin is around 9,000.

 

I also got a Peace dollar with light red/purple toning covering the obverse. Very pretty, but it's AT. A good lesson for the ATers is to NOT take a $75 coin and AT it and sell it for $30. Someone like me will just come along, buy it, dip it, and sell it for $75. I also got some freaky foreign coin (silver bullion type) with deep vibrant sea green/blue toning.

 

Was that long enough for you?

[braddick]

This was my favorite Long Beach show. I usually only spend about four hours, tops, and then burn-out sets in and a need to miss all the LA traffic for the drive home.

 

Not this time. Got to the show a little before ten so I could rush to the NGC booth and submit a couple coins for "Same Day" service.

I also then rushed over to PCGS before they got crazy to submit but found out you need a minimum of five coins and at $65. per that was too rich for me. I'm really glad now I didn't do it because those two coins came from the same little mini hoard of toned coins I submitted the first two to NGC.

Oh yes. NGC returned them as "possible AT" and NOT holdered. Dang it. It's wierd spending $110.00 for a little decal. I'm sure now PCGS would have rendered the same harsh opinion.

 

As Greg mentioned we formulated this plan to walk the isles one row at a time so as not to miss anyone. That kind of, sort of worked but I'd find myself distracted and we'de end up speaking with a Dealer or two that was not in our path of tables.

Also, I had an interesting chat with one Dealer who had some cool (read: expensive and overpriced) colorful Ikes in SEGS holders. I liked his style. You'de ask to see a coin and he literally toss it on the glass case in front of you! I know he didn't mean anything with the attitude, but it caught me off guard for a moment or two.

It was only later, in hush tones, that another Dealer explained to me who this gentleman was: the creator of PCGS PR69 Buffalo Plate Coin!

 

Greg and I had a great discussion with Bryan (Texas Bullion Traders). Bryan KNOWS his coins! I picked up a few, two now being my new favorites for awhile.

I also KNEW Greg would end up owning that rainbow WashingtonCarver- no way could he not! Those just DON'T come with that kind of great color. This one did and is a true GEM.

 

All in all a great day. As Greg mentioned the luncheon was terrific. Had a great talk with eBay's "greattoning". He is absolutely down to earth and his enthusiasm for coins and his business is second to none.

 

We found ourselves leaving so late that my car was locked into the closed office complex next door to the Long Beach Convention Center! Thank goodness someone happened to be leaving, thus lifting the automatic metal gate, and allowing me to make a bee-line toward it before it closed. Greg: ever see anyone run so fast with a mission in mind?

 

Good coins. Neatg show, but more importantly GREAT PEOPLE.

[KIEFERSCOINS]

I also had a great show. With just 6 hours to cover everything, I was pressed for time, but did get a chance to talk with Gereg for a while and he dismissed me by making up some story about an ACG san frnaciso slab out on the bourse in a junk box. He said Braddick and him saw it the day before but didn't buy it. Of course I believed him, and looked for about three hours for it, with no luck. Gereg just smiled and I got the impression that it was never there. I did get an ACG slab from their Long Beache office - total: $16.

 

Were you there at th show on Friday Braddick? I heard your name paged once around 1:30pm. Maybe someone thought you were there.

 

Cameron Kiefer

[BushMan]

Had a great talk with eBay's "greattoning". He is absolutely down to earth and his enthusiasm for coins and his business is second to none.

 

 

Richard Abrahams, Ebay ID:greattoning, does have some super material and I enjoy the coins I have won there. I would encourage everyone to visit his coins. I've never met the gentleman, though I look forward to the opportunity. The detailed observations about the show are appreciated.

[clw54]

It was only my second Long Beach show, but it didn't seem the dealers were as busy as the first one. Just by observing them, they didn't seem as enthusiastic either. It was easier to get to look at their coins, because there weren't a lot of people crowding around their displays.

[gmarguli]

did get a chance to talk with Gereg for a while and he dismissed me by making up some story about an ACG san frnaciso slab out on the bourse in a junk box. He said Braddick and him saw it the day before but didn't buy it. Of course I believed him, and looked for about three hours for it, with no luck. Gereg just smiled and I got the impression that it was never there. I did get an ACG slab from their Long Beache office - total: $16.

 

I saw it. I'm pretty sure it was a SF slab. Hey, I collect coins. Be happy I snagged that proof GW sample slab for you. The price you paid couldn't have been fairer. Why would I send you on a snipe hunt? If you were my competition I would, but you're not.

 

 

Were you there at th show on Friday Braddick? I heard your name paged once around 1:30pm. Maybe someone thought you were there.

 

That was TruthTeller paging Braddick.

[TomB]

Thanks to all for the posts!

 

I, too, know greattoning and have had dinner with him on numerous occassions as we are not that far from one another. A very down to earth, good person.

 

As for PCGS not guaranteeing a show turn-around time, I have never seen them honor their advertisement on this one. I just shake my head at it.

 

Hey Greg, if you want to get rid of the Texas, I know a good home for it! Hint, hint!

[gmarguli]

I, too, know greattoning and have had dinner with him on numerous occassions as we are not that far from one another. A very down to earth, good person.

 

Braddick introduced me to him and I talked to him for a little while and he showed me some of his coins. Seems like a nice guy. Perhaps we can get him to post over here?

 

 

 

As for PCGS not guaranteeing a show turn-around time, I have never seen them honor their advertisement on this one. I just shake my head at it.

 

Two shows ago they didn't even honor their reholder turnaround time for me. They charged me the show price ($10) and then they didn't have it done that day like they said they would. I had to come back the next day and pay $8 to park. Otherwise they were going to mail it to me and charge me something like $13.50. Oh well, at least I got to walk the floor one more time.

 

 

 

Hey Greg, if you want to get rid of the Texas, I know a good home for it! Hint, hint!

 

I've owned that coin less than 24 hours and I've already had 3 offers on it (2 here and 1 at the show). I think I'll keep it for now. It's just a really nice looking coin. The luster is superb. The shade of blue isn't usually found on coins with "natural" color. Side note: I saw a Texas with a proof like obverse at the show. Too bad the reverse was satiny. It actually had a slight cameo effect to the obverse.

 

And I've got to get an accurate picture of the GWC. I know it looks blah in the current photo, but Braddick can attest to the colors. It's really not brown like the photo. Stunning!

[braddick]

The color on Greg's commem is like that found on some colorful Franklin from the 50's. Rainbow rims that go deep into the coin (not just "barely there" color either).

 

All I've seen sport grays and browns with very little color- possibly a fleck or two of green or red.

 

NGC will STAR this one- or, at least they should. It does have a bit of chatter on the portraits that keep this one in a GEM MS65 holder and out of something higher.

 

Neat coin- and knowing what Greg paid- real value too.

 

((Cameron- That ACG coin exists and I almost bought it for you as I also have never seen a San Fransisco ACG early Slab. It was in excellent shape too considering it was coming out of a Dealer's junk box. If you know anyone that is going to be there today I can tell you it was from that Dealer that offers boxes of slabbed coins with one set price per box. He's the only one doing that so if you can get someone to swing by there and find it, you might still score.))

[truthteller]

I'm tired. This summer Long Beach show was exceptionally good. I make the rounds for 3 days solid, sold many coins for very firm prices and left with no inventory. Buying again was very difficult, but that's the way it has been for quite a while. Usually, the summer LB was slow, not this time. Many happy dealers, many happy collectors, active dealer day, active collector Thursdays, somewhat slower on Friday, but still quite busy. General concensus was high end classics are up, average material is fair to slow, dollars slowed down a bit, proof moderns are heading south, generic gold was firm with the increased bullion demand(however, not as bullish as was two months ago). Several dealers who walked the floor left early since business was done with by Thursday. Classic white commems are dead, very pretty coins are hot!!! Bought one commem for 25 times bid. What bothers me is this. I sat through the Heritage auction on Friday and found better date gold and $20 libs to be not as bullish as in the past. This is usually a bell weather for the future market 2 months ahead. I could be an anomily, but money seems to have tighened in this end of the market. In addition, telemarketers make tons of money on better date gold, and with the FTC crackdown recently, it may have hurt this end of the market.

 

Prognostication: Very firm overall market for the next 6 months, some softening toward the end of the year. Money is still available, but this might change with stocks rising in value. Money tends to get sucked out of the coin market with improved stocks. Most mom and pop dealers are very cautious about extending themselves. I feel this is prudent and would recommend not mortgaging the house to buy coins. If economy continues to slow, lower end valued coins ($500 or less) will suffer.

 

Confuscious say:"When coin market is hot, sell. You can buy it again later when market is cold"

 

TRUTH