The Greysheet Lurches Toward Reality

[TomB]

As we all know, The Greysheet does not always keep a good tab on the areas that each of us follows particularly closely. One of the areas where the information contained is lacking is in early, problem-free US type coinage. I am really writing about the mid-range circulated coinage that lists as pathetically cheap. This listing error is as much an error of omission as it is an error of comission on the part of the publishers. It can serve to hurt this niche market since many values are blatantly out of line with reality and with the difficulty in finding the coin in question. I believe that this actually takes nice coins off of the potential bourse as those who own these pieces will not receive satisfactory sales prices while it affects many potential buyers by lulling them into a false sense of attainability.

 

One such issue that is hit by this lack of precise information is our country's first quarter issue, the 1796 Draped Bust obverse paired with Small Eagle reverse. Although Breen disliked this coin intensely, as many others might, I have always thought that it was my favorite pairing of obverse and reverse designs on a regular issue, silver US coin. There are at least three extremely nice examples of this date owned by active participants to this forum, myself included, and we can all tell folks how difficult this coin is to buy in a problem-free state. The latest Greysheet, which arrived at my house today, reflected a long overdue increase in bid prices for this coin. Please note that these values are still under market prices for perfect coins within the grade range, however, it is nice to see reality start to creep in. Look at these advances on paper-

 

F12; From $7,150 to $8,000

VF20; From $8,750 to $10,000

EF40; From $12,500 to $15,500

 

Now, there are a number of other areas that are similarly out of touch with reality but I will not get to those issues in this initial post within this thread. Does anyone disagree with me or share my feelings about reality in sheet prices vis a vis reality on the bourse? If so, what issues are underpriced relative to this pervassive price guide? How about overpriced?

[dragon]

Without going into a plethora of examples, the people at the Greysheet have basically been asleep at the wheel and completely out of touch with reality for the past 20 years IMO.

 

Don't they still list NCI or INS or some other totally obscure service as a grading service on their front page?? I haven't even seen an NCI coin in the past 10 years, and there is NO market for them whatsoever.

 

Sometimes I look at Greysheet listed bids and offers vs. what coins are actually trading for at a major show or auction, and I wonder why the market has chosen to use this archaic publication as a price guide.

 

dragon

[gmarguli]

Don't they still list NCI or INS or some other totally obscure service as a grading service on their front page??

 

Yep, and they refuse to list ACG coins even though ACG was led to believe that when they reached 80,000 units they would be listed.

[Tradedollarnut]

I would like to take this opportunity to compliment Mark Ferguson, the new Coin World Trends editor. I have seen VAST improvement in the accuracy of the prices put forth in Trends over the past few months for the series I follow. I especially like the new monthly issue that has expanded grades.

 

See, Greysheet, it's never too late to improve!

[EVillageProwler]

Greysheet == two thumbs down. It's supposed to represent sight-seen pricing, but early type nice coins go for big and product coins go for whatever. I agree that the Bust 25c needed a price boost. (I noticed that right away too, and was annoyed that I hadn't yet purchased a nice 1796 25c!) But, look at the ridiculous buncing up of prices in the ED series...

 

Trends == one thumb up. Mark is a one-man data collector, but he's only one man. I met him at FUN; he seems very nice and conscientious about his work. I was going to volunteer to do the pricing for a couple of series, but then decided against it (because the series I was gonna do for him are currently underappreciated and I'm still actively collecting!).

 

EVP

 

[Hoot]

Greysheet is completely out of touch with buffalo and Jefferson nickel.

 

For one, they don’t even list Jefferson nickels. This series is fully ignited for coins with the full step designation and pretty pricey for a modern series. I wrote them (editors of Greysheet) and asked them if there were any plans to include the series in their pub and they simply did not respond to me.

 

As for buffalo nicks, they undervalue the series enormously. There is so much variability in the series, however, that it is likely difficult to contend with prices of individual issues and the ever growing demand for cherry pieces. That said, their sheet prices are generally way off – at the low of the low end of the series. On average, a sheet price will be around what one might see for the low end of any grade and a coin that is completely uninspiring.

 

I’ve also found the Trends prices to be a better reflection of reality. The new price lists for moderns are good works in progress but still need a lot more input to reflect what is happening in the markeplace.

 

Hoot

[gmarguli]

For one, they don’t even list Jefferson nickels.

 

The list a couple of the key dates in the Monthly issue. The others are listed by the roll in BU.

[TomB]

Dragon, you made me laugh when you listed NCI and INS as I think the same things as you wrote every time I see them listed on the first page of the weekly!

 

There are really some excellent responses here. This is somewhat off-topic, but, while we all realize that the truly exceptional pieces within any grade should trade at higher levels I am always amazed at the people who come up to a table at a show and essentially expect to buy the nicest pieces at or around bid! I wish it were routinely possible.

[gmarguli]

Dragon, you made me laugh when you listed NCI and INS as I think the same things as you wrote every time I see them listed on the first page of the weekly!

 

They are still listed because they trade - according to the sheet people. I haven't seen an NCI slab in a long time. INS pops up every once in a while - usually a Morgan dollar for some reason. They also list PCI on the front page. I can understand why ACG is pissed if they list PCI and not them.

 

 

This is somewhat off-topic, but, while we all realize that the truly exceptional pieces within any grade should trade at higher levels I am always amazed at the people who come up to a table at a show and essentially expect to buy the nicest pieces at or around bid! I wish it were routinely possible.

 

I bet the same percentage of people who try to buy PQ coins at bid is about the same percentage of people who think Redbook is an accurate price guide. It's kind of sad seeing so many people looking up prices in their Redbook when contemplating buying a coin.

 

The big problem is that so many of these price guides are controlled by dealers. Anyone think that Trends would low ball prices when they get their money from advertisers (coin dealers)? The PCG$ price guide is filled with priced supplied by dealers - some of which are of very questionable character. The Sheets are supposed to be independent (the price setters aren't involved in US coins - only foreign if they want), but I question that. The common stuff (proof/mint sets/ SBA, Ike, generic Morgan/Peace, commems) are frequently well overvalued.

 

The Bluesheet is supposed to represent prices of the worst of the worst, but one several occasions I have not been able to sell solid coins for Bluesheet. Ever try to sell a proof Franklin for anywhere near Bluesheet? Some of those commem prices are seriously out of whack. The lower grade Morgan/Peace dollars I can frequently buy for MUCH less than the sheets. From what I hear, a lot of the sight-unseen market has dried up. I think it has quite a bit to do with the ever changing standards at PCG$ and to a lesser extent, the shifting standards over the years at NGC.

 

On the opposite side, there are still dealers that buy and sell using the sheets. I got to pick up a Columbia for around sheet a few shows ago. It's housed in an OLD NGC MS67 slab with nice multi-color toning. I was actually prepared to be quoted more than double what they did quote. (I'd have turned it down at that price).

 

[TomB]

Yeah, the INS coins always seem to be Morgans. I always assumed that a "market maker" in INS coins years ago specialized in Morgans and that skewed the population of coins in their holders.

 

You did well on the Columbia. I've thankfully only had one experience where someone low-balled an offer of coins under Bluesheet. That one time would be when Heritage sent me a letter telling me that they desperately needed my coins. They send me a variation of this letter about once a month or so. The letter came just before the FUN show last year and so I brought a box of coins to the Heritage table and offered them to Heritage. These were nice coins and the Heritage rep went through them and took out all of the very nicely toned pieces. He said he didn't want the nicely toned pieces but wanted everything else. I imagine that Heritage does not routinely want to buy nicely toned coins because they offer so much generic, dipped white product in their weekly auctions that these types of coins do not sell as quickly. Anyway, the other coins were various shades of white, from blasty to antique patina white. I was offered about 80% of Bluesheet! What!?!?!?! Am I an insufficiently_thoughtful_person!?!?! I told him that it was obvious that Heritage was not going to buy my coins and then he counteroffered with just under Bluesheet! I left with all my coins and sold them for substantially over Greysheet at the show.