How to appraise a low pop coin? 1 1

[Bert21]

Hello all.  Been "lurking" on the boards as a member since 2017, soaking up as much information as I can.  I have a question and thought I would create my first post to get the opinion of others on the board. I recently had a coin graded by NGC that is a low pop coin, having only 4 graded by NGC (and none graded by PCGS).  The coin is a 1909 Lincoln Cent (P Mint, No VDB) and is graded MS67BN.  The coin is currently on its way to CAC courtesy of a local dealer.  The dealer said he would be willing to make an offer on the coin, but how do you place a value on a coin with no previous sells (none to my knowledge)?  what would be a good offer?  NGC price guide places a value of $1250 for the coin...should I just go by this valuation?  Not sure I am going to sell, but I could use the funds to purchase other coins I have on the want list.  I have an MS66BN (as well as a 66RD and 66RB) example in my collection and, placing the coins side by side, the 66 is a little more visually appealing to my eyes (thus the reason I may be willing to part with it).  Thanks in advance for any information/opinion.  Regards, Brian

Disclaimer: Please forgive me if this is the incorrect forum in which to ask this question.  Was going to ask the question in the Marketplace forum, but I am not sure I will be selling the coin. 

[Coinbuf]

Nice first post, and you are in the correct portion of the forum as the marketplace should only be used for a thread to sell a coin.   Your query is a tough one to answer, even more so when you are dealing with the color designation of BN, and without seeing the coin in hand.   My experience is that at auction most BN designated coins do not sell at a higher price than what a similar graded red example would bring.   So I checked the GC archives and found there have only been 2 auctions for 1909 MS67RD coins (interestingly both in 2024) graded by NGC and both sold within $20 of each other with the higher price being $1,486.   Using that as a ceiling, and looking at what 66BN's have sold for in the past on GC I would think it would be very difficult to sell for over 1K even with a CAC bean.    I assume that you have already checked this and perhaps other auction sites for this data, the CAC price guide shows a lower guide price of $1,230 than the NGC price guide, which I also used in my analysis.   Other than consigning the coin to an auction house using price guides and any auction history of like or similar coins is really the only way I know to arrive at a value estimate.

Unless the coin has truly exceptional color, my guess is that an auction result of between $800-$1,000 would be in the range.   But if the color is really special then it could exceed my range, especially if you can get two buyers that really want it bidding against each other.   I would be surprised if any dealer would offer in the range I have suggested as they need room to mark it up, I would think a dealer would offer closer to $500.

I can certainly understand your situation, I have the only CAC approved MS66BN 1918S Lincoln cent.   Like you I really have no idea what that might be worth or bring at auction as the only CAC approved BN example.   But unlike you I do have some auction history to draw upon as a couple of other non CAC approved examples have been auctioned in the past to help give me a more defined range.

Edited August 4 by Coinbuf

[Henri Charriere]

HELLO @Bert21  ( I feel funny saying Welcome to someone who's been  lurking about for going on 7 years.)

I don't know what to make of all this.  Your '09 (no VDB) has no P mint.  Do you know any that do?  You and I both know NO dealer is going to give you the price you deserve.  My question is, if it doesn't qualify for a CAC seal of approval, then what?

What's your Red Book say?  What are similar coins going for on eBay?  Not auctions; direct sales 

(Ricky wants to know where you stood on the all-time bouts I refereed on @ Ratzie33 and @ NS&G?  How come you never wrote when I was exiled to Vladivostok (the last stop on the Trans-Siberian RR, told to shut up, sit down and eat a cold bowl of brothy borscht-- on two separate occasions?) So much excitement on the Board, and NOW you speak up on something you could have picked up by simply reviewing past threads? 

Nobody is going to volunteer a price without consulting the same sources you should surely be familiar with after loitering around the premises all these years. I have a "pattern" I recently acquired but cannot tell you what it's worth unless Member Just Bob sits me at his knee and explains to me how supply and demand work when there is only one unique coin in existence whose demand is undetermined.  Maybe the other members may elect to weigh in. [In fact, one knowledgeable collector in your area of expertise, just has, one post upthread. I concur with his entire approach and trust his conclusions.]

My best advice to you, unless you're in a terrible hurry -- which has led to many a downfall of a legitimate, respectable, somewhat impatient collector-- is shop around and ask around.  Hopefully, owing to the late hour on the East Coast, someone with a good grasp of your situation will bestow upon you some much needed valid advice.  I wish you all the best.  

Edited August 4 by Henri Charriere
To add a late-breaking contribution.

[Zebo]

On 8/3/2024 at 8:26 PM, Bert21 said:

Hello all.  Been "lurking" on the boards as a member since 2017, soaking up as much information as I can.  I have a question and thought I would create my first post to get the opinion of others on the board. I recently had a coin graded by NGC that is a low pop coin, having only 4 graded by NGC (and none graded by PCGS).  The coin is a 1909 Lincoln Cent (P Mint, No VDB) and is graded MS67BN.  The coin is currently on its way to CAC courtesy of a local dealer.  The dealer said he would be willing to make an offer on the coin, but how do you place a value on a coin with no previous sells (none to my knowledge)?  what would be a good offer?  NGC price guide places a value of $1250 for the coin...should I just go by this valuation?  Not sure I am going to sell, but I could use the funds to purchase other coins I have on the want list.  I have an MS66BN (as well as a 66RD and 66RB) example in my collection and, placing the coins side by side, the 66 is a little more visually appealing to my eyes (thus the reason I may be willing to part with it).  Thanks in advance for any information/opinion.  Regards, Brian

Disclaimer: Please forgive me if this is the incorrect forum in which to ask this question.  Was going to ask the question in the Marketplace forum, but I am not sure I will be selling the coin. 

Here is an article that may help. Jeff Garrett wrote this a while ago, but it hopefully will be useful to you.
https://www.ngccoin.com/news/article/10701/

 

 

[numisport]

Keep in mind that for stickering CAC does not take into account the color, plus grades and other descriptors. And here's another twist. For valuation purposes understand that values for true red coins in holders IMO are generally undervalued as many have turned RB but still reside in RD holders. This is especially true for brilliant proofs starting 1936. Dealers understand this but rarely admit it. Buyer beware of holders that exhibit heavy abrasions from sale and resale time after time. NGC only guarantees the color for 10 years (if that) and your coppers cannot be reholdered if they think the coin will turn in the holder. I think that explains how most 1936 Proof cents are in damaged and scratched holders and are no longer RD. 

 

[RWB]

The most important unknown is what is the ratio of graded to ungraded 1909-P cents. Of course, that's impossible to know. I mention it because graded coin populations are not a meaningful basis for valuing a coin. Your best option for market value is to compare with similar NGC and PGCS coins sold at auction.

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/4/2024 at 12:54 PM, RWB said:

The most important unknown is what is the ratio of graded to ungraded 1909-P cents. Of course, that's impossible to know. I mention it because graded coin populations are not a meaningful basis for valuing a coin. Your best option for market value is to compare with similar NGC and PGCS coins sold at auction.

Sorry to have to say this but my being told certification censuses and populations cannot be trusted due to the proliferation of crackheads at coin show and other venues disappointed me more than hearing otherwise credible sources report the entire Santa Claus saga was a myth.

As regarding NGC and PCGS coins sold at auction, I regret to inform you and the membership that, save for the few I purchased on ebay, none of which appeared on any site list, the lion's share of F20FR GR I bought directly from what amounts to individuals or boutique shops overseas, ever appeared on any listing I am aware of.

You've written, elsewhere, that mintage figures reported in official sources are not reliable, which I was unaware of and I have been in the hobby since the age of 10.

Supply and Demand makes sense -- to a point.  It does not take into account collectors like me who suffer from a type of numismatic necrosis of the brain.

[ldhair]

It's easy to check the price guides but that's not enough. Auction results narrow things down. With many rare coins there are no resent auction results. At that point all you can do is take a guess.    

[powermad5000]

Hello and welcome to the forum!

Well, the thing I will say is any coin is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it.

That said, 4 have been certified by NGC at this grade and color, 3 as  67BN and one of them is 67 BN star. PCGS has only graded one at 67 BN.

PCGS has no price listed. NGC currently lists $1,250. Using the price guides is difficult and to me is only an indication of a potential in value. My experience is mostly, auctions end below the listed price guide prices. While at auction, if the right two bidders were present, this coin could exceed $1,250 but that is like playing the lotto. Being there is one graded as a star, I would think that particular piece would come closer to guide value and the rest would fall below that. Being there are so few, I would think somewhere around an even $1,000 would be appropriate. A dealer is going to kill you on it if you try to go sell it and can use the excuse that there is no way of telling its value because there is no real resultant data to firmly back up a value and you would hear that he/she "just can't take a chance giving you that much because it might not sell for that." If you plan to sell, I would sell it through a major auction house.

The other very important thing to consider with this coin at this particular time is that low pop number. If in the next ten years, say another 6-10 get graded at the same level. Each one graded at the same level will eventually slowly erode at the value where it stands now. So if $1,000 sounds good to you now, if you hold on to it, in ten years if more are graded the same would only $750 sound good? Just saying that to keep perspective as coin values can and do fluctuate over time.

[samclemen3991]

Wow.  Sometimes I have to climb back off the floor when I encounter concise, well written advice on the net.  NGC by rights should have to pay you powermad5000.  James

[ldhair]

On 8/6/2024 at 1:28 AM, powermad5000 said:

If you plan to sell, I would sell it through a major auction house.

That's what I do when I can't pin down the value. Most of the time the coin brings a fair price. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 8/3/2024 at 8:26 PM, Bert21 said:

Hello all.  Been "lurking" on the boards as a member since 2017, soaking up as much information as I can. 

Wow....hard to believe.  Glad you decided to join us by posting. 

[powermad5000]

On 8/6/2024 at 8:04 AM, samclemen3991 said:

NGC by rights should have to pay you powermad5000.

I would refuse to be paid. I just like to help.    

[samclemen3991]

Yes, I know that @powermad5000..You do an excellent job of that.  In truth I was on a different coin site just before I made that post.  One writer had a post about the new CACG grading service I thought looked interesting until I realized his opening sentence was 17 lines long.  Another post about Trade Dollars (I am currently bidding on the same date he was posting about) was a punctuation free pages long ramble of gibberish using reference numbers I have never heard of, and I think may have actually been an attempt to sell a coin but I lost interest.  James

 

 

[Henri Charriere]

On 8/7/2024 at 10:18 AM, samclemen3991 said:

Yes, I know that @powermad5000..You do an excellent job of that.  In truth I was on a different coin site just before I made that post.  One writer had a post about the new CACG grading service I thought looked interesting until I realized his opening sentence was 17 lines long.  Another post about Trade Dollars (I am currently bidding on the same date he was posting about) was a punctuation free pages long ramble of gibberish using reference numbers I have never heard of, and I think may have actually been an attempt to sell a coin but I lost interest.  James

 

 

🐓  :  Some of this has you written all over it. But I happen to know you're not smart enough to write intelligibly. 

Q.A.:  Honestly, I just don't remember.  Ignorance is bliss, I always say. 

🐓  :   By the way, is that Special Strike Top Pop winging it's way over the Atlantic really "unique.?"

Q.A.:  I hope so.  I think it's the most expensive thing I ever paid for in cash.  Without it, I am back to being a nameless, faceless nobody.

🐓  :  It doesn't have a date, the reverse is blank, and isn't even made of gold!  Suppose its uniqueness is its grade: SP-62?

Q.A.:  Then I haven't a worry in the world. I'm dead. I will become the laughingstock of the Forum.

🐓  :  As if you aren't already!  

[EarlyUS.com]

800 wholesale, 1000 retail

[Bert21]

Would like to thank all those who replied to my original post and for the content provided within...some solid and thoughtful information.  Recently got the CAC submission back and the good news is 10 of the 17 coins sent in received the CAC green bean.  Unfortunately (but not surprisingly), however, the 1909 MS67BN Lincoln did not.  Overall, I would consider my first (and, most likely, only) CAC submission a success.  Although, 1 or 2 of the coins that didn't CAC sort of left me shaking my head in subtle disbelief.  

[MarkFeld]

On 8/4/2024 at 10:43 AM, numisport said:

Keep in mind that for stickering CAC does not take into account the color, plus grades and other descriptors. And here's another twist. For valuation purposes understand that values for true red coins in holders IMO are generally undervalued as many have turned RB but still reside in RD holders. This is especially true for brilliant proofs starting 1936. Dealers understand this but rarely admit it. Buyer beware of holders that exhibit heavy abrasions from sale and resale time after time. NGC only guarantees the color for 10 years (if that) and your coppers cannot be reholdered if they think the coin will turn in the holder. I think that explains how most 1936 Proof cents are in damaged and scratched holders and are no longer RD. 

 

That’s incorrect. CAC ignores the plus part of grades when assessing coins but not color designations or other designations such as PL, FH, FB, etc.

I’ve asked them about this more than once on order to confirm it.

[MarkFeld]

On 8/3/2024 at 9:31 PM, Coinbuf said:

Nice first post, and you are in the correct portion of the forum as the marketplace should only be used for a thread to sell a coin.   Your query is a tough one to answer, even more so when you are dealing with the color designation of BN, and without seeing the coin in hand.   My experience is that at auction most BN designated coins do not sell at a higher price than what a similar graded red example would bring.   So I checked the GC archives and found there have only been 2 auctions for 1909 MS67RD coins (interestingly both in 2024) graded by NGC and both sold within $20 of each other with the higher price being $1,486.   Using that as a ceiling, and looking at what 66BN's have sold for in the past on GC I would think it would be very difficult to sell for over 1K even with a CAC bean.    I assume that you have already checked this and perhaps other auction sites for this data, the CAC price guide shows a lower guide price of $1,230 than the NGC price guide, which I also used in my analysis.   Other than consigning the coin to an auction house using price guides and any auction history of like or similar coins is really the only way I know to arrive at a value estimate.

Unless the coin has truly exceptional color, my guess is that an auction result of between $800-$1,000 would be in the range.   But if the color is really special then it could exceed my range, especially if you can get two buyers that really want it bidding against each other.   I would be surprised if any dealer would offer in the range I have suggested as they need room to mark it up, I would think a dealer would offer closer to $500.

I can certainly understand your situation, I have the only CAC approved MS66BN 1918S Lincoln cent.   Like you I really have no idea what that might be worth or bring at auction as the only CAC approved BN example.   But unlike you I do have some auction history to draw upon as a couple of other non CAC approved examples have been auctioned in the past to help give me a more defined range.

I think Coinbuf made an excellent point about prices for RD examples tending to serve as a ceiling for prices of BN ones. And my experience has been that it holds true even if/when the populations for BN ones are lower than those for RD. I also think his estimated auction range makes sense.

 

[numisport]

On 9/7/2024 at 10:09 PM, MarkFeld said:

That’s incorrect. CAC ignores the plus part of grades when assessing coins but not color designations or other designations such as PL, FH, FB, etc.

I’ve asked them about this more than once on order to confirm it.

I stand corrected, thanks. I'm still trying to get grips on differences between CAC stickering and CACG grading [and there are some].