GTP: Guess The PRICE.....4 different MS-67 1908 NM Saints 0

[GoldFinger1969]

GUESS THE PRICE:  I've never been a creator of those "Guess The Grades" threads....but following a bunch of MS-67 1908 No Motto Saint-Gaudens recently I thought where they priced out on GC was really fascinating.

Can you guess the approximate prices on these 4 coins...or even tell which ones went for the most and least ?   They're pretty well-spaced price-wise so you might be able to get it right. 

Don't cheat...I'll post the actual prices they went for in a day or so, unless more people are participating and going back-and-forth.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

2 More:

 

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

This is a really tough one to pin down.  You've got a signed slab with a carbon spot, slabs from two different grading services, one w/o any reference to Wells Fargo and the fourth and last that looks very official.

Since cheating is a no-no   and I know nothing more than each has a sizeable premium, I will go with the last slab.

[Mike Meenderink]

I'll try; Coin 1/ $6300 Coin 2/ $6500 Coin 3/ $6400 Coin 4/$6700 

Edited December 20, 2023 by Mike Meenderink

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/18/2023 at 9:23 PM, Henri Charriere said:

Since cheating is a no-no   and I know nothing more than each has a sizeable premium, I will go with the last slab.

You mean it's the highest priced one ?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2023 at 9:29 AM, Mike Meenderink said:

I'll try; Coin 1/ $6300 Coin 2/ $6500 Coin 3/ $6400 Coin 4/$6700 

Interesting....I'll probably post the prices later today. 

 

[GoldFinger1969]

Tell you what....let me give everyone the prices for all 4 coins WITHOUT the buying premiums.  

The coins costs, in random order:   $5,000....$6,550.....$4,755.....and an ask price (no sale) of $6,250.

Now....you know the prices....can anybody match those 4 sales (3 sales, 1 no-bid) with the coin pics above ?

Edited December 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[Mike Meenderink]

In posted order: C1/ $6250 no bid  C2/ $6550 sold C3/ $4755 sold C4/$5000 sold 

[RWB]

These are all common Type I 1908 DE in "straight from bag" condition. I value them all at $2,500 each. The "cost" does not matter - there is nothing special about any of them. 

[Mike Meenderink]

Negative Nancy has arrived. When should we expect pessimistic Penny and Debbie Downer to arrive?

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2023 at 10:34 AM, RWB said:

These are all common Type I 1908 DE in "straight from bag" condition. I value them all at $2,500 each. The "cost" does not matter - there is nothing special about any of them. 

They are all MS-67's, Roger.....so they do have condition rarity.  We might disagree on the grades, but they are all Gem or Super Gem quality.  No low-60's or AU coins here, I think we can agree on that.

Edited December 20, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2023 at 10:36 AM, Mike Meenderink said:

Negative Nancy has arrived. When should we expect pessimistic Penny and Debbie Downer to arrive?

Hey, I welcome ALL debate.  If Roger has an opinion, I want to hear it even if I disagree with it.  In this case, I think he forgot the grades the coins got which even if generous, still makes them all Gem Quality.

[ldhair]

I'll guess the first coin brought the most. 

[RWB]

On 12/20/2023 at 11:58 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

They are all MS-67's, Roger.....so they do have condition rarity.

As shown by hoards and treasure finds, this was the common condition of new DE straight from a bag. "Condition rarity" is, in my opinion, nothing but a zero-sum greed game used to stretch the Unc coin population and milk the suckers or "boobs" as John Ford liked to call them. Where are the "Conditional Common" coins....I hear no seller hype of these/ I see no TV blab, blab, blab, blab "YES Folks! Here were have the choicest Condition Commonality coin ever to come into our TV studio..."

Edited December 21, 2023 by RWB

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/20/2023 at 8:36 PM, RWB said:

As shown by hoards and treasure finds, this was the common condition of new DE straight from a bag. "Condition rarity" is, in my opinion, nothing but a zero-sum greed game used to stretch the Unc coin population and milk the suckers or "boobs" as John Ford liked to call them. Where are the "Conditional Common" coins....I hear no seller hype of these/ I see no TV blab, blab, blab, blab "YES Folks! Here were have the choicest Condition Commonality coin ever to come into our TV studio..."

Ironically, that sounds like some of the weekend coinfomercials I see, like the ones with Rick Tomaska, who is an accomplished author of some Whitman Red books but has some questionable marketing plugs IMO in his show.

[VKurtB]

On 12/21/2023 at 2:56 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Ironically, that sounds like some of the weekend coinfomercials I see, like the ones with Rick Tomaska, who is an accomplished author of some Whitman Red books but has some questionable marketing plugs IMO in his show.

Rick once was a serious expert before he went over to the dork side of the farce.

[GoldFinger1969]

I will post the coin prices with coins matched tonight. 

So get yer Last Licks in by 9 PM or so !! 

Edited December 21, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[RWB]

On 12/21/2023 at 3:56 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Ironically, that sounds like some of the weekend coinfomercials I see, like the ones with Rick Tomaska, who is an accomplished author of some Whitman Red books but has some questionable marketing plugs IMO in his show.

The difference is in using treasure and hoards to provide a baseline for "straight from the mint" conditions. If one looks at the stacked coins from the Central America wreck, their configuration is consistent with new coins stacked much as they left the Mint. The surface conditions of these pieces for abrasions, nicks, scrapes, etc. (and ignoring stains), are consistent with MS66-67. The Saddle Ridge hoard is another example where a large proportion of DE were in 66-67 condition, not by deliberate collection but by random hoarding of coins acquired from banks or a mint or an Assay Office in payment of deposits.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/21/2023 at 5:32 PM, RWB said:

The difference is in using treasure and hoards to provide a baseline for "straight from the mint" conditions. If one looks at the stacked coins from the Central America wreck, their configuration is consistent with new coins stacked much as they left the Mint. The surface conditions of these pieces for abrasions, nicks, scrapes, etc. (and ignoring stains), are consistent with MS66-67. The Saddle Ridge hoard is another example where a large proportion of DE were in 66-67 condition, not by deliberate collection but by random hoarding of coins acquired from banks or a mint or an Assay Office in payment of deposits.

Ok....so.....the coins actually from those 2 hoards I take it had lots of 66's and 67's ?

I'm a bit confused on the importance of this baseline thing (were you responding to someone ?).  Basically, you have those 2 hoards and they're condition was such that there were lots of 66's and 67's because the coins were initially pristine and then even though exposed to the elements some coins randomly preserved/protected others and there was minimal moving over the decades -- is that what you are saying/implying ?

Edited December 22, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[GoldFinger1969]

The Coins & Prices: OK, , here are the coins.  If you find other MS-67's 1908 NM's feel free to post the pics and price so we can add to this comparision over time.  The more data points the better.   

The Motl NGC coin was sold for $4,755 (without the bp which would take on another 10-12%).

The older white holder NGC coin was sold for $5,000 even.

The 1st PCGS coin was NOT SOLD and had an asking price of $6,250.

Finally, the 2nd PCGS coin (the last pics) went for $6,550.

So it looks like the NGC coins definitely sold for a discount based on the holders, unless you can see definite differences that the grades themself don't show.  Even accounting for substantive differences, there appears to be a holder discount.   As for why the 1st PCGS coin couldn't get a bid and a $300 discount to the 2nd PCGS coin, well, I'm not seeing much difference between them but will now be looking closer at the Hi-Def pics.  Only realy blemish is the black copper spot (?) in teh Motl Coin near the olive branch in the left hand.

Edited December 22, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[J P M]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The Coins & Prices: OK, , here are the coins.  If you find other MS-67's 1908 NM's feel free to post the pics and price so we can add to this comparision over time.  The more data points the better.   

The Motl NGC coin was sold for $4,755 (without the bp which would take on another 10-12%).

The older white holder NGC coin was sold for $5,000 even.

The 1st PCGS coin was NOT SOLD and had an asking price of $6,250.

Finally, the 2nd PCGS coin (the last pics) went for $6,550.

So it looks like the NGC coins definitely sold for a discount based on the holders, unless you can see definite differences that the grades themself don't show.  Even accounting for substantive differences, there appears to be a holder discount.   As for why the 1st PCGS coin couldn't get a bid and a $300 discount to the 2nd PCGS coin, well, I'm not seeing much difference between them but will now be looking closer at the Hi-Def pics.  Only realy blemish is the black copper spot (?) in teh Motl Coin near the olive branch in the left hand.

Those are some big prices. not crazy, but it can also depend on the bidding for the night. If there are 3 bidders fighting over a coin the price can change and go to high. I am on the auction every week and see it all the time. I always try for NGC holders but there are not as many being sold most of the time.

[Fenntucky Mike]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:26 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

The Motl NGC coin was sold for $4,755 (without the bp which would take on another 10-12%).

The older white holder NGC coin was sold for $5,000 even.

The 1st PCGS coin was NOT SOLD and had an asking price of $6,250.

Finally, the 2nd PCGS coin (the last pics) went for $6,550.

So it looks like the NGC coins definitely sold for a discount based on the holders, unless you can see definite differences that the grades themself don't show.  Even accounting for substantive differences, there appears to be a holder discount.   As for why the 1st PCGS coin couldn't get a bid and a $300 discount to the 2nd PCGS coin, well, I'm not seeing much difference between them but will now be looking closer at the Hi-Def pics.  Only realy blemish is the black copper spot (?) in teh Motl Coin near the olive branch in the left hand.

Makes sense. The first coin has a distracting copper spot on the obv. and that ridiculous label, the second coin seems to have less visible detail on the obv and is in an NGC holder, three and four you're splitting hairs but I do like the look of four better than three. Since #2 seems a little weaker let's say that suppressed the price a few hundred, is 1k a typical spread between PCGS and NGC? Maybe the bidder on the PCGS coin needed a Christmas present for someone ASAP. 

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/22/2023 at 8:38 AM, J P M said:

Those are some big prices. not crazy, but it can also depend on the bidding for the night. If there are 3 bidders fighting over a coin the price can change and go to high. I am on the auction every week and see it all the time. I always try for NGC holders but there are not as many being sold most of the time.

$1,200 - $1,500 difference for a super-common coin like the 1908 NM is alot.  That's too much for a holder discount.  

Still, interesting that you can get an MS-67 Saint-Gaudens coin for under $6,000 (including bp) though you have to look for a really nice one.  RWB is right...lots of the 1908's don't look that great.  In fact, I've seen MS-66 CACs OGH that look much sharper than all of these 67's.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/22/2023 at 8:59 AM, Fenntucky Mike said:

Makes sense. The first coin has a distracting copper spot on the obv. and that ridiculous label, the second coin seems to have less visible detail on the obv and is in an NGC holder, three and four you're splitting hairs but I do like the look of four better than three. Since #2 seems a little weaker let's say that suppressed the price a few hundred, is 1k a typical spread between PCGS and NGC? Maybe the bidder on the PCGS coin needed a Christmas present for someone ASAP. 

I think $1,000 for 2 idential coins of this type is too steep. 

Unless you know one coin is a "B" or "A" type (and maybe a CAC, but don't assume it) and the other is your classic "C" overgrade where there's a good chance it should be a 66 and not a 67......$1,000 is too high, IMO, for a coin like this which is very common (maybe more justifiable in the same price range if the coin is scarcer).   

I think $500 is the sweet spot for coins in the $5,000 range...or about 10%.

[RWB]

On 12/21/2023 at 9:03 PM, GoldFinger1969 said:

Basically, you have those 2 hoards and they're condition was such that there were lots of 66's and 67's because the coins were initially pristine and then even though exposed to the elements some coins randomly preserved/protected others and there was minimal moving over the decades -- is that what you are saying/implying ?

These and others indicate that the surface quality of ordinary DE coming from a US Mint was consistent with what "graders" now call "MS 66-67" or something similar. These were coin that never we in circulation and were not banged around in bags of kegs very much. That is also consistent with the self-styled "Wells Fargo" DE --- minted, bagged, keged or boxed, put on ship, sunk, found in undisturbed stacks.

[GoldFinger1969]

On 12/22/2023 at 3:16 PM, RWB said:

These and others indicate that the surface quality of ordinary DE coming from a US Mint was consistent with what "graders" now call "MS 66-67" or something similar. These were coin that never we in circulation and were not banged around in bags of kegs very much. That is also consistent with the self-styled "Wells Fargo" DE --- minted, bagged, keged or boxed, put on ship, sunk, found in undisturbed stacks.

I have to check, but I do NOT believe any of the 1908 NM WF Saints graded 68 or 69 has a CAC sticker.  Not sure about the 67's.

Does the CAC website have a listing of all the grades for particular coins that got the CAC bean ?

[GoldFinger1969]

I made a mistake, sorry.....Coin #3 apparently is NOT a 1908 Wells Fargo NM.  It is one of the 1908's that pre-dates the Wells Fargo Hoard.

Aside from the fact that the WF Hoard generally are generally more appealing and better struck than non-WF even for the same grade...people probably also pay a premium for the WF moniker...ergo, that may explain why this coin didn't sell at this price and the non-WF pedigree was a slight headwind.

Edited December 23, 2023 by GoldFinger1969

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/20/2023 at 10:02 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

You mean it's the highest priced one ?

I would say so but I wouldn't be able to tell you why.  Coins simply occur to me.  I either like it, or don't. I have a peculiar buying policy that no one would ordinarily admit to.  I don't care about provenance and if the coin has no luster or toning, it makes no difference to me. I do not even have to see the coin.  I keep it simple.  Right now, I am in the market for any one of three F20F GRs. If it's in a West Coast slab, so much the better.  I can kill two birds with one stone: avoid a risky criss-grade and avoid a membership fee which is only necessary for submissions for certification.

There is a psychological aspect, too.  If a DE were slabbed and you hid the paper insert, I wonder how many people would change their pecking order. That last slab is chock full of information. A slab like that beats a blank any day.  And, to me, the coin simply looks better. Price? In the mystical world of FMV, purely a formality which imparts no meaning.

[VKurtB]

On 12/23/2023 at 1:11 AM, GoldFinger1969 said:

I made a mistake, sorry.....Coin #3 apparently is NOT a 1908 Wells Fargo NM.  It is one of the 1908's that pre-dates the Wells Fargo Hoard.

Aside from the fact that the WF Hoard generally are generally more appealing and better struck than non-WF even for the same grade...people probably also pay a premium for the WF moniker...ergo, that may explain why this coin didn't sell at this price and the non-WF pedigree was a slight headwind.

Depends who has the better marketing spiel. 

[Henri Charriere]

On 12/20/2023 at 10:34 AM, RWB said:

These are all common Type I 1908 DE in "straight from bag" condition. I value them all at $2,500 each. The "cost" does not matter - there is nothing special about any of them. 

In the wake of The Disclosure, this comment emerges, by far, as the most intriguing, in aggregate.  "These are all common..."  "I value them" [one and all at only a smidgen above gold spot!]  And there is "nothing special about any of them." Bold statements. Kinda turns the philosophies I've heard aired here over time, on its head. I am going to assume the member who chose # 1 did so after sizing things up and assuming the OP had a surprise for us up his sleeve. That saying, "pick the coin, not the holder," played a part, as did labels. (Things "may be better with Coke," but what if Pepsi tastes better?) Far from playing Negative Nancy, we were presented with the unvarnished truth: nothing special, even at one of the loftier grades. I don't know whether this could be arranged or not, but I'd love to see a presentation with just the coins [on a nice velvet pad] minus the holders and fancy inserts, signed or not. Now that would truly be a challenging GTP.

Great exercise, GF1969!  Man, I love this place!  🤣